End of 2008 was looking doubtful two weeks ago, now we're talking June 2009 and beyond, things change pretty quickly in the immigration process. I'm a little baffled by a move into July (hope it happens for your sake), but if they are so confident about the numbers why not make a move to Dec 2008 in July and June 2009 in August. I guess we'll find out soon enough, RFE for May 2009 points to a fairytale ending - but we know this process is anything but that!Originally Posted by vedu
I agree. RFEs are a natural constraint this year - they can't move dates and approve loads of people in the last month - so they have to signal their hand well in time.
There was some discussion before on whether an RFE actually blocks a visa number for the RFE recipient. Would be pretty nice if true.
Even if we go to May 2009 this year, we are only holding serve and barely maintaining a PD+5Year benchmark. Next year is expected to be brutal - we might just about clear 2009 which is the lowest density portion. Demand densities kick up in 2010+ PDs - so we are looking at some awful years after this current one. So enjoy this ride while it lasts.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
I would not give up hope on next year so early. Hoping that 'divine arrangement' (which has helped EB2I to maintain PD+5-6 years to GC equation) continues.
On a serious note, I would like to see where it ends this FY before predicting anything for next year.
Here's a part of what it says on Trackitt, but I really am not sure what to make of it. An exact date prediction of 9/1/2008 this month is a bit bold, but we'll see!
Visa Chief Charles Oppenheim recently advised Mr. ____ that the July India EB-2 cut-off date will be September 1, 2008, which means significant movement is expected. Mr. Oppenheim plans to then advance the date to 2009 for August, and another move in September. The extent of the movements will depend on his estimates of "otherwise unused" EB-1 and EB-2 numbers when the cut-off dates for those months are determined.
Mr. Oppenheim predicts that by the end of September the movements in the next few months with the India EB-2 cut-off date will allow over 15,000 applicants to adjust.
Mr. Oppenheim further predicts that the September India EB-2 cut-off date will likely to hold for October, but can be expected to retrogress as early as November. That retrogression will become necessary as soon as the processing of the new (July-Sept.) filings results in a significant increase in adjustment requests for applicants with very early priority dates.
According to notes in the Visa Bulletin, priority dates for the Family F2A category have retrogressed as a result of a dramatic increase in demand earlier this fiscal year. Further retrogression cannot be ruled out should demand by applicants with very early priority dates continue to increase.
Retrogression in the employment-based categories is a result of unexpected and dramatic increase in demand being received from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Service Offices during the past several months. "Notices were included in several Visa Bulletins during the past year alerting readers to the possibility of such retrogressions. While corrective action in some categories has become necessary earlier than was anticipated based on the information available earlier, it is hoped that readers are not caught off guard by these retrogressions."
Note that persons in the US whose priority dates will become current in June cannot file an application for adjustment of status until June 1, except for Diversity Visa applicants, who can file a month in advance of their priority date becoming current. We expect that once an application is filed, in order to use all the available visa numbers, USCIS will aggressively
move to schedule applicants for biometrics and adjudicate these cases quickly. Applicants should ensure that their attorneys push USCIS to move on their cases before any retrogression can occur.
We will keep you posted as we receive more information on future predictions of visa availability. More information can be found at the Visa Bulletin website.
If everything goes according to plan this year, then next year around this time there will be approximately 10,000 pending EB2I I-485 inventory. In June 2011, there was close to 22,000 EB2I pending inventory. That year, the dates started moving in July and CO kept moving dates until April 2012 in order to generate the future demand. Finally when the dates stopped moving, they were at May 1, 2010. We may be in a similar situation in June of next year.I would not give up hope on next year so early. Hoping that 'divine arrangement' (which has helped EB2I to maintain PD+5-6 years to GC equation
On a serious note, I would like to see where it ends this FY before predicting anything for next year.
Its out !
9/1/2008 it is.....
http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...july-2014.html
http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...july-2014.html
July Bulletin -- EB2 India - 01 Sept 2008.
July VB is out - EB2-I September 2008.
http://www.travel.state.gov/content/...july-2014.html
Allowing for a 5% denial rate, based on the April Inventory, there are about 12k EB2-I cases beyond a Cut Off Date of 01JUN09.
Movement to 01JUN09 in FY2014 would cover around 18k EB2-I cases. If 15k further visas are available in Q4, then 3k would fall into FY2015. It might be possible to approve those in October 2014, using the EB2-I initial allocation for FY2015.
Also, the Inventory will not show porting cases as EB2, so the figure is probably higher than that. Cases since November 2013 with a PD of pre 01SEP08 can now be processed from July 2014, when the EB2 PD becomes current.
EB2-I would need substantial SO in FY2015 to exhaust the current Inventory and allow dates to move beyond 01MAY10. I'm not convinced that will happen.
Unless there are substantial FB visas available for FY2015, it is likely the EB2-I COD will have to retrogress in the November 2014 VB and stay retrogressed until Q4, when the amount of SO available for the FY can be determined.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec - My PD is 30th March 2010. How many EB2 cases are between June 2009 and March 2010?
Spec, Q, Vizcard, sportsfan33, imdeng, kanmani and others
The user (u/nagabhyrava) who posted the email communication on trackitt said the following in two different posts. I want to understand how much truth there is to it?
Post 1 :
India EB2 will not surpass China EB2, otherwise China EB2 will be able to share some spillovers.
Come back in September to find out whether what I said has turned out to be true.
Sorry I can't share the reason or rationale.
But India EB2 will be just a little bit behind China EB2, so that all "unused visa numbers" will go only to India EB2. In the mean time, China EB2 has nothing to complain because they will stay ahead of India EB2.
Post 2:
The logic is very simple.
Backlog in India EB2 has to cleared, otherwise it'll snowball into an ugly number that will embarrass somebody in Washington D.C.
So the spillover has to go to India EB2.
In order to achieve that India EB2 has to stay behind China EB2 to ensure that no spillover is shared by China EB2, or to minimize the spillover being shared by China EB2.
So the key of the key in predicting your opportunity is to closely monitor the China EB2 cut-off dates and fully understand the data behind these dates.
Thanks!
If dates are moved in Q4 2015 after the SO can be determined, wont we run the risk of wasting visa numbers as new I485s cannot be processed to completion in Q4 itself.
This year it turned out the actual allocation was at least 5K more than what it is turning out to be.. I understand next year will be tough with no EB5 and more EB2ROW..
In any case, will it be better for CO to sit on more inventory(may move the dates till end of 2010 and get more inventory sometime next year)?
Spec,Q and Other gurus,
How far do you think the cut off dates will go for EB2I this year? I see June 1,2009 mentioned. Any chances for going beyond that?
P.S : I am being shamelessly selfish here. I have a June 29, 2009 PD. I don't care about when I would get greened but just want an opportunity to file for I-485. That's all.
Bulletin is out, India hits Sep 08!! Good luck to all who are current!
/bulletin/2014/visa-bulletin-for-july-2014.html
Folks the official bulletin is out. EB2-I is back at 01-Sep-08.
http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...july-2014.html
Again, allowing 5% denial, the current Inventory shows around 10.5k cases between the COD of 01APR10 you would require and a COD of 01JUN09.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
So I need 10.5K + Porting number i.e. close to 14K-15K spillover to get greened. Are we expecting around 10K SO only next year?
If CO moves the dates beyond 01MAY10, then he needs to have sufficient visa numbers available to approve all the existing cases that have been preadjudicated who will become Current. That means the Inventory has to be nearly exhausted before he can do so. Personally, I don't think that point will be reached in FY2015. The amount of SO available in FY2015 will only cover a proportion of the existing preadjudicated cases.
EB2-C will move beyond 01MAY10 in FY2015, since its almost certain they will have far fewer than 2.8k cases left in the Inventory going into FY2015. That's going to feel quite painful to Indian applicants.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Glass half full view is that we might some SO from EB2 C too
So here are 3 key takeaways from this Visa Bulletin:
1. EB2I moved to where it should've been all year along (but was technically retrogressed because of portings). This movement is only partial and there should be further movement in next bulletin.
2. EB2 ROW stays current - that's good for EB2IC.
3. EB3 ROW doesn't retrogress further - which means EB3ROW has stabilized and now the forward movements will resume with new year or may be even earlier.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Guys please respect moderator's time and effort and post in appropriate threads.
All of us understand the need to get visibility to your questions. But you must understand that moderators are doing a "Pro Bono" work here in maintaining the forum and answering questions. So I second Spec's post and request you to please post in appropriate threads only.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
This is true. Buts its not a conspiracy. Eb2C just doesn't have the demand and hence has moved way ahead and EB2I has benefited as a result
But what's stopping CO from moving EB2C further maybe like into 2011 or 12?
Same reason he can't just arbitrarily move EB2-I Cut Off Dates.
China had around 5k cases pending (and preadjudicated) up to a Cut Off Date of 01MAY10 at the beginning of the FY. The annual limit is about 3k.
He doesn't currently have enough visas available to approve those cases if he moved the dates up to, or beyond, 01MAY10.
There is no separate mechanism to de-link setting Cut Off Dates for approval and submission purposes.
I think CO should be able to move EB2-C beyond 01MAY10 by around the end of Q2 FY2015.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
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