EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[Pundit Arjun]

I think it's great news as reported. 3 things to note:
1) This, ofcourse, goes beyond the calculations from the gurus on this site (although kudos to YT). Based on the article, EB1 is supposed to yield SO which was not expected. So that's interesting.
2) CO appears to have a pretty solid handle on the inventory, demand and on porting to make such a strong prediction.
3) this news has not been reported by other law firms (atleast I haven't seen anything). I don't doubt the article as Fragomen is a reputed name but it's curious that no one else reported something this big.


Also, for those with 2010 PDs, there might be a possibility that dates move further in FY15 than the math would suggest to generate demand.

Kudos to Spec, Q, YT, MATT2012 - Bang on target

Hope we all get greened soon. The wait is agonizing...

[vishnu]

China to move 5 weeks per month is interesting - puts EB2 C closer to October 2009 by Sep 2014. Is our view that India and China will end up at similar/same dates at year end.

[vedu]

Interesting find! The news is looking more authentic now.

Vedu - Thanks for sharing this encouraging news. I started off on a google mission and found a similar "client alert" from Fragomen's website predicting PD movement last year. In retrospect, this alert proved to be interesting on two fronts - first is that the prediction came out around the same time last year (June 6th as opposed to June 3rd this year). Secondly, the prediction (Feb 2008) eventually proved to be conservative since the dates actually moved a few months beyond the prediction to June 2008 - hopefully this pattern holds true and benefits those with late summer/fall PDs

http://www.fragomen.com/SnapshotFile...i7U685P2fN5Gh6

[Spectator]

I think it's great news as reported. 3 things to note:
1) This, ofcourse, goes beyond the calculations from the gurus on this site (although kudos to YT). Based on the article, EB1 is supposed to yield SO which was not expected. So that's interesting.
2) CO appears to have a pretty solid handle on the inventory, demand and on porting to make such a strong prediction.
3) this news has not been reported by other law firms (atleast I haven't seen anything). I don't doubt the article as Fragomen is a reputed name but it's curious that no one else reported something this big.


Also, for those with 2010 PDs, there might be a possibility that dates move further in FY15 than the math would suggest to generate demand.

It indeed would be good news! I think there is now a reasonable chance of some movement in the July VB.

I think the majority of Fall Down from EB1 will actually come from EB4 numbers that Fall Up to EB1.

A note on approval numbers to date from Trackitt.

EB1

EB1 has 422 approvals to date, compared to 424 for all of FY2013 and 543 for all of FY2012. Both FY2013 and FY2012 actual approvals were around 39k.

EB1-India has 361 approvals to date, compared to 338 for all of FY2013 and 413 for all of FY2012. Both FY2013 and FY2012 actual approvals were around 9.5k.

As you can see, the Trackitt rate for EB1 has been a bit variable recently - I have considered the FY2012 rate to be more representative of what is happening this year. The very high approval numbers in the first half of the year may not continue through the second half of the year, although it appears USCIS do not lack EB1 cases judging by the Inventory.

EB2

As for EB2-WW (ROW,M,P), it almost seems a question of how low they might might go. I have been thinking about reducing my assumption for a while now.

EB2-ROW has 253 approvals to date, compared to 732 for all of FY2013 and 453 for all of FY2012. In FY2013, actual approvals were around 36.5k and in FY2012, actual approvals were around 21.8k.

For completeness, EB2-India has 645 approvals to date, compared to 1,338 for all of FY2013 and 1,470 for all of FY2012. In FY2013, actual approvals were around 17.2k and in FY2012, actual approvals were around 19.7k.

EB2-China moving 5 weeks per month is a little more than I had thought - maybe it reflects how many have reverse ported to EB3.


PERM Certifications

To put the increase into perspective, the 2 months worth of PERM Certifications for April/May 2014 represent slightly more than 50% of the total for the 6 months October 2013 to March 2014 (+158%).

March 2014 itself also represented a high Certification month. April/May 2014 Certifications represent 64% of the 6 months September 2013 to February 2014 (+192%).

[vedu]

I agree. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush!!!

I truly wish it does even at the cost of potential spillover next year. If the EB2I date moves to late 2009 this year itself, we will all have to remember that this would in essence be a *2 years worth* of movement.

[CleanSock]

sportsfan33,
Could you explain more on the 2009 being benign for EB2I? I went through last four I485 inventories and the latest one shows EB2I demand around 14,000 as compared to 10,000 in 2008. I assume 2008 is lower in the latest inventory because many of the applications have been processed as the dates in that year were current twice. But going back 3 inventories, story is the same. 2008 demand data is less than 2009. Then how come it is benign? I guess I am missing something here.

Thanks!
CleanSock

If the past experience is any indicator, CO's comments generally transpire in reality. At this point, there are about 4 months remaining in the FY and it is not unrealistic to expect that the CO can project the entire demand in pipeline for all categories. He can definitely make predictions now.

I would say don't lose hope. And even if not this year, next year you are surely in. The more the movement this year, the more the demand cleanup and the closer you are. 2009 is also the most benign year for EB2I demand and it should be over relatively quickly.

[vizcard]

sportsfan33,
Could you explain more on the 2009 being benign for EB2I? I went through last four I485 inventories and the latest one shows EB2I demand around 14,000 as compared to 10,000 in 2008. I assume 2008 is lower in the latest inventory because many of the applications have been processed as the dates in that year were current twice. But going back 3 inventories, story is the same. 2008 demand data is less than 2009. Then how come it is benign? I guess I am missing something here.

Thanks!
CleanSock

im going to take a shot at answering this. Sportsfan - correct me if I'm wrong.

the issue is not on the demand side but on the supply side. I think the PERM slowdown will rear its ugly head next fiscal year resulting in greater than usual demand in EB2ROW. ofcourse its way too early to say how things will shake out. Its still just Q3 2014.

[iatiam]

More than half the folks in 2008 are already greened. They have been getting GCs since 2012. I don't know anyone from 2009 who has gotten a GC yet.

There is always a balance of force. For less demand in 2009, there will be release of pend up demand. So while the demand side is low, the supply side might also be low thus balancing it. At least that's what I wish for (because my PD is Aug 2009)

[Spectator]

sportsfan33,
Could you explain more on the 2009 being benign for EB2I? I went through last four I485 inventories and the latest one shows EB2I demand around 14,000 as compared to 10,000 in 2008. I assume 2008 is lower in the latest inventory because many of the applications have been processed as the dates in that year were current twice. But going back 3 inventories, story is the same. 2008 demand data is less than 2009. Then how come it is benign? I guess I am missing something here.

Thanks!
CleanSock

CleanSock,

In terms of Demand judged by PERM Certifications, PD2009 is the lightest.

2007 & 2008 had around 23k certifications for India.
2009 had under 17k certifications.
2010 had over 22k certifications and that has risen to over 35k certifications for 2012.

You can look at the figures in FACTS & DATA here and broken down by month here.

Even allowing for distortions due to new PERM for porting, it is clear the overall demand has increased substantially since around April/May 2010.

Such was the pace of PD2008 approvals during the period they were first current, I don't think the Inventory ever properly captured the true numbers.

[helooo]

Hi Gurus,
How long does it take to get EAD as first time filer?Pls move this to appropriate thread.
Thanks

[vizcard]

Hi Gurus,
How long does it take to get EAD as first time filer?Pls move this to appropriate thread.
Thanks

I'll give u a crappy range... i got mine in 3 weeks back in 2012. When I renewed in 2013, it took longer (6 weeks or so IIRC). A friend of mine's took almost 3 months for his renewal. So I don't know if the driver of time is first time vs renewal or workload at any given point in time or something else.

[CleanSock]

Thank You Spec, Vizcard and Sportsfan33. This explains it all
My PD is in 2011 and I am nowhere close to getting a GC. I just hope dates move quickly to May 2010 so that they are pushed forward to generate demand and I at least get EAD and AP.

CleanSock,

In terms of Demand judged by PERM Certifications, PD2009 is the lightest.

2007 & 2008 had around 23k certifications for India.
2009 had under 17k certifications.
2010 had over 22k certifications and that has risen to over 35k certifications for 2012.

You can look at the figures in FACTS & DATA here and broken down by month here.

Even allowing for distortions due to new PERM for porting, it is clear the overall demand has increased substantially since around April/May 2010.

Such was the pace of PD2008 approvals during the period they were first current, I don't think the Inventory ever properly captured the true numbers.

[idiotic]

Assuming dates move to early summer of 2009(conservative estimate from Fragomen holds good), is there a consensus among the group about how next inventory buildup might look like and what will be the timing of such buildup (USCIS FY 2015 Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4)

[imdeng]

Even if we move to middle of 2009, considering that SO is expected to be low next year, CO might have enough inventory left to finish off FY2015. So in that case next inventory buildup can be as late as early summer 2016. However, if things align well and there isn't enough inventory left to finish FY2015, then we can see inventory buildup about this time next year. All depends on how next few months go and how much of actual SO is realized.

Assuming dates move to early summer of 2009(conservative estimate from Fragomen holds good), is there a consensus among the group about how next inventory buildup might look like and what will be the timing of such buildup (USCIS FY 2015 Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4)

[vishnu]

CO wouldn't have a view already on spillover for FY 2015...thats why date movements only happen in fiscal Q4.

If we move to summer 09, and we have around 10k+ EB2 till May 2010, that may prompt him to build inventory from as early as Q1 fiscal 2015...

what he does know is that average EB2 india granted each year is around 18k... he wouldnt want to take the risk of wasting numbers, so may at least what to get to 20k inventory prior to next spillovre season

[vizcard]

CO wouldn't have a view already on spillover for FY 2015...thats why date movements only happen in fiscal Q4.

If we move to summer 09, and we have around 10k+ EB2 till May 2010, that may prompt him to build inventory from as early as Q1 fiscal 2015...

what he does know is that average EB2 india granted each year is around 18k... he wouldnt want to take the risk of wasting numbers, so may at least what to get to 20k inventory prior to next spillovre season

First, I believe CO looks at demand and not inventory.
Second, even if we do move to June 2009, not everyone in that period will get greened (visas may run out, RFE responses won't get processed in time, etc, etc.). Last year when the dates moved to June 2008, I don't believe everyone in that period was approved and those left over are a decent number.
Third, depending on how EB3I ends up this year, you can expect a lot of porting.

[MATT2012]

First, I believe CO looks at demand and not inventory.
Second, even if we do move to June 2009, not everyone in that period will get greened (visas may run out, RFE responses won't get processed in time, etc, etc.). Last year when the dates moved to June 2008, I don't believe everyone in that period was approved and those left over are a decent number.
Third, depending on how EB3I ends up this year, you can expect a lot of porting.

Adding to what Viz pointed out, there will be many new I485 cases.

[vedu]

So if we assume that CO won't move the dates forward so early to generate the new demand, would it be fair to assume that he won't move the dates backwards either starting October/November in the hope of generating a limited new demand from the porters?

Adding to what Viz pointed out, there will be many new I485 cases.

[imdeng]

Once there are enough porters/documentarily-qualified folks to exceed the normal quarterly quota for the country, CO has to retrogress until Q4. So I doubt that he will be able to keep the Summer-2009 date for much longer after Oct. Perhaps for a month or two like this FY to mop up some laggards - but by Dec-Jan, dates are going back to 2004 type date to stop porting demand.

So if we assume that CO won't move the dates forward so early to generate the new demand, would it be fair to assume that he won't move the dates backwards either starting October/November in the hope of generating a limited new demand from the porters?

[gcwait]

This Fragomen link says dates will move in JULY:

http://www.fragomen.com//SnapshotFil...2fvJvROnpvg%3d

[vedu]

That's a good news. Last year the dates started moving in August. So, this year we will have one extra month to consume the spill over.

This Fragomen link says date will move in JULY:

http://www.fragomen.com//SnapshotFil...2fvJvROnpvg%3d

[vizcard]

This Fragomen link says date will move in JULY:

http://www.fragomen.com//SnapshotFil...2fvJvROnpvg%3d

Excellent first post ! Welcome to the forum.

A July move would mean that CO will move dates in baby steps perhaps to June 2008 then Dec 2008 (Aug) and then June 2009 (Sep). That would give 2008 folks who have received RFEs around 60 days to respond before they become current and ofcourse 90 days till the end of the year.

[vedu]

Vizcard,

Do you think there is any chance of dates moving father than June 2009? Last year, Fragomen predicted February 2008 for EB2I and January 2009 for EB3 ROW. Ultimately, the dates ended up in June 2008 for EB2I and July 2010 for EB3 ROW.

Excellent first post ! Welcome to the forum.

A July move would mean that CO will move dates in baby steps perhaps to June 2008 then Dec 2008 (Aug) and then June 2009 (Sep). That would give 2008 folks who have received RFEs around 60 days to respond before they become current and ofcourse 90 days till the end of the year.

[vizcard]

Vizcard,

Do you think there is any chance of dates moving father than June 2009? Last year, Fragomen predicted February 2008 for EB2I and January 2009 for EB3 ROW. Ultimately, the dates ended up in June 2008 for EB2I and July 2010 for EB3 ROW.

Fragomen is reporting what CO says. Only CO knows the data. I'm surprised that it's even reaching the summer. But if we get June 2009, then it's net 1 yr movement which is excellent.

Do I think it'll go past June 2009? No. But I didn't think it'd reach June 2009 so what do I know

[zenmaster]

I agree.
I feel the same. I think they should peg the dates at high watermark from July itself.

The latest RFE date reported on trackitt is May 20th, 2009.

In previous years, a "conservative" estimate would be reported and the actual date movement would be past that. However, I believe this year's date movement is as aggressively reported as possible. Part of the reason should be that CO has to release an advisory for the adjudicating officers, so the officers can send RFEs as and when they see fit. There is simply no room to make a surprise push in September if the officers do not get enough time to review and send RFEs.

I believe the latest reported RFE date sets the high watermark for the date advancement this year. Let's keep watching.