EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[smuggymba]

I think the trick is CH approach CO as a group. I dont think CO is unapproachable but it has to be reasonable request coming from a group rather than individual.

CH info is always correct from past experience. They're the ones who first said that dates will move into 2010 and it did.

[medatom]

Just a question and sorry for posting in this thread. Please move to any other as deemed.
I have a PD of 09/2009; Got the EAD and applied for H1 extension and went to india and came back on EAD on 12/13. My wife is also on EAD and just got a job.
I have a job offer in the same field from different local hospital (work in medical field); What are my options;
1. Use AC 21 and transfer to the other hospital
2. Tell them to transfer H1B but i don't have H1B stamped on my passport (H1B is valid until 2015).
3. What will happen to my wife's status if i transfer to the other hospital?
Sorry if not clear in explaining my situation. Any help is appreciated.
Thank You

[vizcard]

The timing of this event actually raises an interesting dynamic.

RFE validity of 1 year means that there will be a real pressure on the USCIS to give green cards within "that window" itself. This is another hard constraint on top of the constraint that no more than 150K green cards be given out. They should not simply stop giving GCs once they run out of numbers. They have to make provisions for those numbers to begin with.

Since EB2I cases are ripe with preadjudication and since the EB2-ROW cases will be unpredictable in nature, I believe this should actually play in our favor. we should see less EB2-ROW approvals and more EB2-I approvals in the last 2 months.

Also, the more I thought about it, the more I take it as an excellent news that RFEs until Sept 2008 are already sent out. There is an entire month of June when more RFEs can be sent with a reasonable expectation of a 60 day turnaround. Those who will get RFE2 in next waves will have an ample time to get greened in Sept.

The USCIS is doing redundant work and we will all be out of $500 on average, but in the short term, this should benefit. Thoughts?

Not sure I agree with ur assessment. I don't believe for a second that medical expiring will force faster approvals. It might push dates further than otherwise because of delays but I'll be shocked to see the speed pick up as a result of this.

[vizcard]

Just a question and sorry for posting in this thread. Please move to any other as deemed.
I have a PD of 09/2009; Got the EAD and applied for H1 extension and went to india and came back on EAD on 12/13. My wife is also on EAD and just got a job.
I have a job offer in the same field from different local hospital (work in medical field); What are my options;
1. Use AC 21 and transfer to the other hospital
2. Tell them to transfer H1B but i don't have H1B stamped on my passport (H1B is valid until 2015).
3. What will happen to my wife's status if i transfer to the other hospital?
Sorry if not clear in explaining my situation. Any help is appreciated.
Thank You

I am in a similar situation. So I feel I can speak intelligently.

1) H1 or EAD doesn't matter technically. It's a matter of whether your new company will sponsor H1 (personally I would/will use EAD).
2) if you do decide on transferring H1, you could still use AP to travel even if you are working on H1 (I do that now). So no need to get anything new stamped.
3) There will be no change to your wife's status.

[Spectator]

sports, viz,

I'm not sure the RFEs will have any substantial effect on processing times or movement of the COD.

Currently, there are 4 months to the end of the FY. Applicants have 87 days to reply to an RFE. In reality, most RFE will be responded to within 30 days, if not quicker so, assuming the RFEs are all sent out within the next month, then they will have been responded to by August 1 when the dates are likely to move forward.

Too many pre-adjudicated cases falling into FY2015 (i.e. those adjudicated after visa numbers run out for FY2014) will increase the chance of early retrogression in FY2015. The further the dates are moved forward at the end of FY2014 as contingency, the larger the fall through of pre-adjudicated cases will be in October 2014.

I think it is a delicate balance between not wasting any visas and not using all available visas for FY2015 immediately. CO won't have the luxury of allowing 5-6k approvals for EB2-I in Oct-November 2014 IMO. If the applicant does not get approved in Aug/Sep 2014, the I-693 might expire before another window opens.

I agree EB2-ROW still looks very low and it is now reaching the stage where increased approvals will make less difference to the final total. It remains to be seen whether EB1 approvals are only moderately higher or very much higher.

[Spectator]

I am curious to know if there is any change of predictions in light of recent RFEs.

sports,

That's a "how long is a piece of string" type question!

The dates are very sensitive to the numbers available for the likely Cut Off Date range. There is only about a 5-6k difference between a Cut Off Date of 01NOV08 and 01MAR09.

EB1 use, EB2-WW use and further porting use can all make the difference and I don't think anyone can forecast those numbers with any accuracy at all (I certainly can't). Then there is the question of how much contingency CO builds into the COD movement.

If you want to give me your estimates for EB1 use, EB2-WW (ROW/M/P), EB4, EB5 use and further porting use, I'll tell you where that might move the dates with various contingency levels.

[Jagan01]

I am curious to know if there is any change of predictions in light of recent RFEs. Here is a summary of the RFe picture:

1) Most RFEs are still from the TSC. NSC seems have to have started but the reports are very few.
2) Most RFEs are until Sept end pointing to a movement up to Oct 1, 2008. There are unconfirmed reports of an RFE in Oct 2008 and one in Feb 2009 (the profiles look genuine). However almost no one in Oct have received RFEs otherwise (myself included). The Feb 2009 RFE is from the NSC.
3) On the other hand, several people are still waiting for the RFEs even in the currently established window.
4) Most RFEs seem to be sent to original filers instead of porters.
5) RFEs are also sent in cases where the case is pending less than 1 year (applied in Aug 2013 etc) - potentially indicating that the date will move in August and not July.
6) I remember reading on a trackitt thread that a person was told by an L2 officer that despite the USCIS policy, RFEs are not sent necessarily. This means that some adjudicators will simply approve the GC without an RFE.

I am trying to get a sense of this. We know the lower bound of the movement, and like everyone, I am anxious. All numbers are still pointing to a movement in Q1 2009. I am curious and am asking the gurus if there is any change in the prediction for this year.

It's just this time of the year, and I am seriously hoping it is the last! I can't spend my summers worrying when the weather is so gorgeous outside.

Sports,

Not an expert but would give my opinion. I understand ur anxiety. I feel the RFEs have just affirmed that final date movement will be either Dec 2008 or Jan 2009. I would bet on Jan09 as that is my PD.

Last year the RFEs went out until Mar 2008 and dates moved 3 months past that. This year it is Sep 2008 and hence dates will surely move to Dec 2008 or may be Jan 2009.

This year would see pretty much the same trend as last year due to the following reasons:
Positive: The porting will be lesser. Most of the people up until Jun 08 have already ported. Hence the hidden demand is lesser.
Negative: CO would not have the same 10k FB based visas to utilize and hence FY15 will not have as many visa allocations in the first quarter.

I believe the above two negate each other and net process will be similar to last year. RFE date + 3 or 4 months movement.

[Spectator]

- Porting use: Honestly, no idea. 5K for the worst case.

sports,

Would that be 5k total porting for the year? Or do you really mean 5k further porting approvals to come?

What I need is how much more porting cases will be approved once the dates advance again.

Based on 2k further porting approvals and using your figures, except using 4k Fall Up for EB4 (based on last year's usage), would give a COD of around 22NOV08 with no contingency.

6k contingency would represent a 31% contingency and move the COD to 08APR09.

10% contingency would give a COD of 01JAN09, while a 20% contingency would give a COD of 15FEB09.

If further porting approvals were 3k, the dates would be 01NOV08, 15MAR09, 15DEC08 and 22JAN respectively.

[vizcard]

sports,

Would that be 5k total porting for the year? Or do you really mean 5k further porting approvals to come?

What I need is how much more porting cases will be approved once the dates advance again.

I guess this is a broader question and could be in any of the other threads too. Would new porters get RFEs for medicals since they would most certainly be outdated ? If that's the case, the impact of new porters could be reduced particularly if dates move in August instead of July.

[Spectator]

I guess this is a broader question and could be in any of the other threads too. Would new porters get RFEs for medicals since they would most certainly be outdated ? If that's the case, the impact of new porters could be reduced particularly if dates move in August instead of July.

viz,

It's a good point. So far, there is no evidence of porters with earlier PD receiving an I-693 RFE.

Nonetheless, there do seem to be a substantial number of cases with an earliesh PD with an I-485 submitted before December 2013 awaiting approval. Most do not seem to be reflected in the Inventory, so they are likely porters. If RFEs are sent out in a timely fashion, they can be approved this FY. Any new cases where the I-485 still needs to be submitted have (virtually) no chance of approval this FY.

[vedu]

Guys,

Guessing game is over for this year!!! According to the Fragomen website, EB2 India dates will move to an early summer 2009 date by the year end.

http://www.fragomen.com/SnapshotFile...b56-b957-5b713

Let's start the new prediction thread for the next year!!!

[Kanmani]

Great news !

New guessing game when does summer start in USA?

[vedu]

Kanmani,

You are on the boundary here!!! If the information is correct, then the dates will move to somewhere in the May-June 2009 range!

Great news !

New guessing game when does summer start in USA?

[Kanmani]

Vedu, I always keep reminding me right from the last year's movement that i'll be on the border line.

I quote our forum friend Sogadu's (Kolaveri fame) phrase "whole body crossed".

[sdesh005]

Vedu,

I just want to hug you! You made my day. Thank you! Thank you!

I am really hoping for a significant chunk of people to get through. I hope so!

"The priority date cut-off for EB-2 India could advance by nearly five years, to an early summer 2009 date, by the September Visa Bulletin."

Nevertheless, I really do hope it advances significantly in to 2009. My PD is July 2009 but I am not optimistic at all! I was unlucky my LC was stuck in Audit last year when the dates went up to 2010, so I couldn't even get EAD!

[vedu]

sportsfan33,

I am also finally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel for myself by the end of the next year! I want all of you Gurus and Pandits to clear the way for us for the next year! The more people can get through this year, the better it will be!!!

Vedu,

I just want to hug you! You made my day. Thank you! Thank you!

I am really hoping for a significant chunk of people to get through. I hope so!

[RGVJSR]

Great news !

New guessing game when does summer start in USA?

Kanmani,

My PD is just few days before you. In calendar it says Summer starts on 21st June. Fragomen site says dates will move into early summer. I believe our dates will be current. Whether we will get approved is all together a different game. It may depend when we will get RFE. It is sure that at least we will get RFE for medicals.
By the way you know more than I can think of in immigration. I read your posts. Thanks.

Note: Research where to shop for LUCK !!!

-RGVJSR

[Kanmani]

Kanmani,

My PD is just few days before you. In calendar it says Summer starts on 21st June. Fragomen site says dates will move into early summer. I believe our dates will be current. Whether we will get approved is all together a different game. It may depend when we will get RFE. It is sure that at least we will get RFE for medicals.
By the way you know more than I can think of in immigration. I read your posts. Thanks.

Note: Research where to shop for LUCK !!!

-RGVJSR

RGVJSR,

Let us join hands in the luck game

Just spoke with my husband, he too have the same opinion about summer. With respect to Medical RFE, it is required IFF our applications are to be ADJUDICATED!!! The Final GC Button press! Otherwise no need to updated I-693.

My worries are currently I am in India on a mission. My sad part is mission failed. Crying at heart shooting smilies

[smuggymba]

If the past experience is any indicator, CO's comments generally transpire in reality. At this point, there are about 4 months remaining in the FY and it is not unrealistic to expect that the CO can project the entire demand in pipeline for all categories. He can definitely make predictions now.

I would say don't lose hope. And even if not this year, next year you are surely in. The more the movement this year, the more the demand cleanup and the closer you are. 2009 is also the most benign year for EB2I demand and it should be over relatively quickly.

Fragomen's website doesn't say the prediction is from Fragomen - it says the prediction is from State Department. I hope 2009 gets over ASAP. My PD is March 2010 and I hope by next July, I get greened.

[YTeleven]

Guys,

Guessing game is over for this year!!! According to the Fragomen website, EB2 India dates will move to an early summer 2009 date by the year end.

http://www.fragomen.com/SnapshotFile...b56-b957-5b713

Let's start the new prediction thread for the next year!!!

This was already predicted on this site: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...5804#post45804
Also, I've projections for FY15 but this is not the appropriate time to disclose it. One thing I would say is FY15 will not be as rosy as FY14 interms of visa numbers for EB2-I.
Key here is EB2-ROW which has a pattern of up and down interms of visa consumption on yearly basis. FY13 it had consumed heavily and FY14 will see least consumption(max 20k) and again FY15 will have high consumption.

[smuggymba]

This was already predicted on this site: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...5804#post45804
Also, I've projections for FY15 but this is not the appropriate time to disclose it. One thing I would say is FY15 will not be as rosy as FY14 interms of visa numbers for EB2-I.
Key here is EB2-ROW which has a pattern of up and down interms of visa consumption on yearly basis. FY13 it had consumed heavily and FY14 will see least consumption(max 20k) and again FY15 will have high consumption.

I was so happy for 2009 folks and looking forward to next year since my PD is Mar 2010 but you just broke my heart...ouuch!!!

[vedu]

YTeleven,

Indeed, you were spot on about June, 2009! When this year completes, I will be very much looking forward to your new year's predictions along with Spec's analysis. Meanwhile, let's enjoy today's good news!

This was already predicted on this site: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...5804#post45804
Also, I've projections for FY15 but this is not the appropriate time to disclose it. One thing I would say is FY15 will not be as rosy as FY14 interms of visa numbers for EB2-I.
Key here is EB2-ROW which has a pattern of up and down interms of visa consumption on yearly basis. FY13 it had consumed heavily and FY14 will see least consumption(max 20k) and again FY15 will have high consumption.

[vizcard]

I think it's great news as reported. 3 things to note:
1) This, ofcourse, goes beyond the calculations from the gurus on this site (although kudos to YT). Based on the article, EB1 is supposed to yield SO which was not expected. So that's interesting.
2) CO appears to have a pretty solid handle on the inventory, demand and on porting to make such a strong prediction.
3) this news has not been reported by other law firms (atleast I haven't seen anything). I don't doubt the article as Fragomen is a reputed name but it's curious that no one else reported something this big.


Also, for those with 2010 PDs, there might be a possibility that dates move further in FY15 than the math would suggest to generate demand.

[enigma]

Vedu - Thanks for sharing this encouraging news. I started off on a google mission and found a similar "client alert" from Fragomen's website predicting PD movement last year. In retrospect, this alert proved to be interesting on two fronts - first is that the prediction came out around the same time last year (June 6th as opposed to June 3rd this year). Secondly, the prediction (Feb 2008) eventually proved to be conservative since the dates actually moved a few months beyond the prediction to June 2008 - hopefully this pattern holds true and benefits those with late summer/fall PDs

http://www.fragomen.com/SnapshotFile...i7U685P2fN5Gh6

Guys,

Guessing game is over for this year!!! According to the Fragomen website, EB2 India dates will move to an early summer 2009 date by the year end.

http://www.fragomen.com/SnapshotFile...b56-b957-5b713

Let's start the new prediction thread for the next year!!!

[whereismygc]

Whereismygc will semi-confirm this news and say we expect similar things.