EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[qesehmk]

Guys a couple of observations from a few datapoints available:
Two datapoints used in this:
1. Latest 485 Inventory (Apr 1 2014) -
- At a macro level - backlogs are increasing slightly - especially so in EB1. But that increase very well could be random nature of processing. So I wouldn't take anything from that. The best takeaway one can take is at least it does indicate a reasonably healthy but not necessarily high demand across all categories.
- EB2I+EB3I show reduction of approx 4K which is consistent with their 6 months quota. EB3I reduction is higher than EB2I reduction which makes sense indicating portings. However I think the porting trend is still stable at 4-5K max per year.
- EB4/5 nothing can be deduced from this data. Too few numbers to say anything. But this is how it always has been with EB4/5.
- EB3C shows increase which means EB3C won't be current this year at least.
- EB3ROW shows stable backlog which means EB3ROW retrogression if any should be short lived and dates should continue their march forward.

2. 485 Performance data for Q1 of 2014
This data is actually more interesting and shows less than quota approvals. It shows 31K approvals in Q1 against a total quota of 40K (27% of 150K). If you adjust for CP, the total approvals could very well be 37K. That means 3K from Q1 alone would be seen in EB2 eventually. So it would be safe to assume 10-12K of spillover for EB2I.

Will update the header soon....

[qesehmk]

Header updated.

[Kanmani]

All Form Types Performance Data (Fiscal Year 2014, 2nd Qtr) ........http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...y2014_qtr2.pdf

[sairam09]

Thanks Kamani!

[qesehmk]

All Form Types Performance Data (Fiscal Year 2014, 2nd Qtr) ........http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...y2014_qtr2.pdf

Wow! This is holy grail of data.

Guys... DOS and USCIS get a lot of flak. But I think thanks and congratulations are due for transparency from both organizations.

[sairam09]

For Employment 2 Quarters are empty what does that mean?

[qesehmk]

For Employment 2 Quarters are empty what does that mean?

USCIS quarters are
Q1 - Oct - Dec
Q2 - Jan - Mar
Q3 - Apr - Jun
Q4 - July - Sep

Since we are in Q3 - Q3/4 data is not yet in.

[sairam09]

Thanks Q

[rs3533]

If you check this other piece of stats...

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...fy2014qtr2.pdf

The total no of 485 approved by Nebraska and Texas are 28,572 at the end of report for Q2. So If the total approvals as per your comment are 30,651 then I wonder 2079 are coming from Consular Processing etc

[qesehmk]

sport - dont forget cp. They are not part of this data.

If it's "only" 31K per quarter, that's too good to be true too. It points to a potentially very large spillover unless we are excluding Eb4/EB5. I have to profess a complete ignorance on that aspect.

Even if we include EB4/EB5, the number doesn't look bad and points to a 10-15K spillover at least.

[krishn]

This is the page that has all the perf data reports

i-485
http://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-s...ustment-status


all forms
http://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-s...ion-form-types

[Spectator]

If CP is not part of the date, the picture doesn't look good.

30*4 = 120K for the whole year. Add at least 15K CP cases for EB4/EB5 and 10K CP cases for EB2/3. The spillover available is very less at this point and that's what the AILA update seemed to indicate.

Unless the approvals slow down. I hope they slow down significantly in the last quarter especially for EB2-ROW.

sports,

Doesn't that ignore the fact that the figures to date also include EB2-I approvals.

Simplistically, as an example, if you thought the total figures to date included 6k EB2-I approvals, then simply double the total, it might account for 12k EB2-I cases. Adding your 5k left would increase the figure to 17k.

I don't think it is that simple, but it doesn't imply only a further 5k are available either.

I'm not sure EB2-ROW approvals will necessarily slow down in the second half, but EB3-ROW/M/C certainly will.

[redwood]

Was checking 2013 report

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...rms-Q42013.pdf

Something seriously wrong with Q4 I-485 approvals ? Only 16K .

[Spectator]

Was checking 2013 report

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...rms-Q42013.pdf

Something seriously wrong with Q4 I-485 approvals ? Only 16K .

redwood,

If you check previous reports, you will find that some of the Q2 figures are completely different in the Q4 report.

If you restore the original figure, then Q4 approvals becomes higher and more sensible.

e.g. The Q4 report shows Q2 I-485 approvals as 55,145. It was 32,825 in previous reports. Restoring that to Q2 in the Q4 report would make Q4 rise to 38,584 instead of 16,264.

EB2-I alone had around 15k AOS approvals in Q4, not to mention about another 5k for EB3-I.

There are other examples and some figures cannot be reconciled to other reports from USCIS for the same period.

It's unfortunate, but the report can't be trusted. There are some oddities in the latest report. I'll wait to see what the Dashboard figures are to reconcile those.

As a PS, I think the new format is a huge backward step. It may be simpler to read, but it does not provide as much information. For example, I-360 sub categories used to be shown, which enabled me to just look at the numbers that contribute to EB4 approvals. That is no longer possible.

[qesehmk]

I don't see why there should be any slow down.

However the good thing is - these numbers indeed contains all categories and countries including backlogged. So any delta you calculate will be pure spillover to EB2IC (assuming there is none in EB3).

If CP is not part of the date, the picture doesn't look good.

30*4 = 120K for the whole year. Add at least 15K CP cases for EB4/EB5 and 10K CP cases for EB2/3. The spillover available is very less at this point and that's what the AILA update seemed to indicate.

Unless the approvals slow down. I hope they slow down significantly in the last quarter especially for EB2-ROW.

[willywonka]

In both Q1 and Q2 the approvals plus denials are higher than the number of new EB I-485 applications. But the number of pending applications has gone up from Q1 to Q2.
Is it because of MTRs filed by the denied applicants that put them back in the pending queue ? Or is it applications from before Q1 and in Q1 that somehow didn't show up under Q1 pending but show in Q2 pending ?
Can someone please help me understand ?

[Kanmani]

In both Q1 and Q2 the approvals plus denials are higher than the number of new EB I-485 applications. But the number of pending applications has gone up from Q1 to Q2.
Is it because of MTRs filed by the denied applicants that put them back in the pending queue ? Or is it applications from before Q1 and in Q1 that somehow didn't show up under Q1 pending but show in Q2 pending ?
Can someone please help me understand ?

Willywonka,

There is a processing time lag of 3 months between Receipt and approval of all applications subject to current priority date. Applications received in the 4th quarter of FY2013 usually gets approved in the 1st quarter of FY2014 onwards.

[qesehmk]

In this case - the report has a foot note that says - the data only shows the cases reported in the case tracking system. So that could also explain the delta.

In both Q1 and Q2 the approvals plus denials are higher than the number of new EB I-485 applications. But the number of pending applications has gone up from Q1 to Q2.
Is it because of MTRs filed by the denied applicants that put them back in the pending queue ? Or is it applications from before Q1 and in Q1 that somehow didn't show up under Q1 pending but show in Q2 pending ?
Can someone please help me understand ?

[helooo]

Hi Q,Spec,Gurus,
Is there any change in EB2I date movement due to this new data?Or still it can move between Aug2008-Jan 2009?
Thank You!

[Spectator]

The I-526 figures were also released as a separate report.

FY ---------- Receipt -- Approved -- Denied -- Approval % -- Pending -- EB5 Use
2008 ---------- 1,258 ------- 642 ----- 120 --------- 84% ------ 853 ---- 1,443
2009 ---------- 1,031 ----- 1,265 ----- 208 --------- 86% ------ 514 ---- 4,218
2010 ---------- 1,953 ----- 1,369 ----- 165 --------- 89% ---- 1,125 ---- 1,885
2011 ---------- 3,805 ----- 1,571 ----- 372 --------- 81% ---- 3,347 ---- 3,463
2012 ---------- 6,041 ----- 3,677 ----- 957 --------- 79% ---- 5,018 ---- 7,641
2013 ---------- 6,346 ----- 3,699 ----- 943 --------- 80% ---- 7,131 ---- 8,564

2014 Q1/Q2 ---- 4,683 ----- 2,882 --- 1,068 --------- 73% ---- 8,302

2014 Prorated - 9,366 ----- 5,764 --- 2,136

Receipts and Approvals are sharply up compared to the same time last FY.

Processing times for I-526 were 13.2 months at the end of March 2014.

At the latest approval rate, the 8,302 pending cases represent 6,057 I-526 approvals over time. At the historical 2.9 EB5 visas per I-526 approval, that translates to a backlog of ~17.6k EB5 approvals.

As of November 1, 2013, NVC had the following number of EB5 cases in progress:

PD Year ---- No.
2011 ------ 966
2012 ---- 2,969
2013 ------ 813

Total --- 4,748

[Spectator]

Thanks spec!

So this points to a large spillover from EB5. I take that as good news.

Sports,

Why do you think that and define "large".

Remember this is I-526 (equivalent to I-140 for EB5) and each I-526 approval will translate to 2.9 EB5 visa approvals eventually.

[helpful_leo]

To us data-ignorant folks, can somebody explain what the new data means for possible PD movement in the coming months for EB2I?

I have a PD of 12/16/2008 - what are the chances I will get greened?

Thx!

[YTeleven]

Hi Q,Spec,Gurus,
Is there any change in EB2I date movement due to this new data?Or still it can move between Aug2008-Jan 2009?
Thank You!

Atleast from my side no change in my predictions. I still believe the EB2-I numbers will move to around Mar2009.
I was closely following the recently released data pointers but none of them is forcing me to change my earlier predictions.
Again the key for the EB2-I movement is due to EB2-ROW spillover.
I do see the recent increase in PERM approvals but that will affect very badly the next year spillover for EB2-I.

[Spectator]

The USCIS Dashboard has just been updated with the March 2014 Figures.

[sairam09]

Any thing surprising for you?