EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[Spectator]

Spec,

Whats the realistic hope for the EB2I Dates to be moved this FY Year.

I think I am in agreement with most other people.

The dates will definitely (in my mind) move beyond the Jan 2008 date mentioned by CO to at least somewhere in late-ish 2008.

How much they move beyond that is down to the performance of EB1 and EB2-ROW for the remainder of the FY. Currently, EB1 approval rates appear high and EB2-ROW approval rates appear quite low. Both can change in the second half of the year.

I can't honestly say I see dates moving beyond March 2009 even in the most optimistic scenario. Currently, I don't even see that as very likely, as all the news lately has been negative to the number of visas that might be available.

[Spectator]

http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/gree...-485-inventory

Some observations from a very quick look.

Despite apparent fairly heavy approvals for EB1 during Jan-Mar 2014, the EB1 Inventory actually rose very slightly to 18.1k. Most of the rise (95%) was due increased EB1-I cases (31% of the total).

Reductions in the EB3-I Inventory for dates beyond the EB3-I Cut Off Date suggest there has been at least 2.6k porting cases approved under EB2-I between Oct-Mar.

Most of the EB5 cases that were pending previously seem to have been approved. The number dropped from 654 in the Jan Inventory to 59 in the April Inventory. EB5 AOS cases only account for about 15% of EB5 cases and only 10% of EB5-C cases, who account for 80% of all EB5 approvals.

[sairam09]

Thanks Spec! With the new Data we should get some insight as well.

[Jagan01]

http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/gree...-485-inventory

Some observations from a very quick look.

Despite apparent fairly heavy approvals for EB1 during Jan-Mar 2014, the EB1 Inventory actually rose very slightly to 18.1k. Most of the rise (95%) was due increased EB1-I cases (31% of the total).

Reductions in the EB3-I Inventory for dates beyond the EB3-I Cut Off Date suggest there has been at least 2.6k porting cases approved under EB2-I between Oct-Mar.

Most of the EB5 cases that were pending previously seem to have been approved. The number dropped from 654 in the Jan Inventory to 59 in the April Inventory. EB5 AOS cases only account for about 15% of EB5 cases and only 10% of EB5-C cases, who account for 80% of all EB5 approvals.

Thanks for the input Spec.

Just wanted to add that the EB2ROW applications have almost doubled. I went back and checked that what was the inventory for the last 3 months preceding the inventory published date:
---------------------------Last month----Second last---------Third last
July 2013 inventory---------233-----------368-----------------133
Oct 2013 inventory---------291-----------352-----------------296
Jan 2014 inventory---------512-----------502-----------------258
Apr 2014 inventory---------473-----------553-----------------680
------------------------------------------------------------------------

For EB2ROW, is the application date of I-140 that decides the month/year and not the PD ? OI somehow never understood this. For example, EB2I always has number put up based on PD (PERM application filed date). Why is that not the case for EB2WW ?

[Spectator]

For EB2ROW, is the application date of I-140 that decides the month/year and not the PD ? OI somehow never understood this. For example, EB2I always has number put up based on PD (PERM application filed date). Why is that not the case for EB2WW ?

Jagan,

EB2-ROW is no different from EB2-I for a standard PERM based case. The PD is the PERM filing date.

If the case is an NIW or Schedule A, the PD would be the I-140 filing date, since neither require a PERM.

BTW, I think I know why you are asking. As I have said before I do not have much confidence in the figures in the Inventory at the micro scale, particularly for Countries/Categories that are Current. USCIS data entry appears to be shockingly bad.

It's worth reiterating that, according to USCIS, the Inventory only contains I-485 numbers where the underlying I-140 has been approved. Neither NIW nor EB1C have premium processing of the I-140 available.

[Jagan01]

Jagan,

EB2-ROW is no different from EB2-I for a standard PERM based case. The PD is the PERM filing date.

If the case is an NIW or Schedule A, the PD would be the I-140 filing date, since neither require a PERM.

BTW, I think I know why you are asking. As I have said before I do not have much confidence in the figures in the Inventory at the micro scale, particularly for Countries/Categories that are Current. USCIS data entry appears to be shockingly bad.

It's worth reiterating that, according to USCIS, the Inventory only contains I-485 numbers where the underlying I-140 has been approved. Neither NIW nor EB1C have premium processing of the I-140 available.

Spec,

Thanks for the reply again.

I need to do more research about Schedule A, as I am not aware of it.
Two more months and we shall know where we land up this year. Good luck.

[Spectator]

Spec,

Thanks for the reply again.

I need to do more research about Schedule A, as I am not aware of it.
Two more months and we shall know where we land up this year. Good luck.

Jagan,

Schedule A won't be much of a factor for EB2-ROW.

It is mainly nurses and physical therapists. The vast majority would apply under EB3 and the vast bulk of applications are from the Philippines.

Am I correct in thinking you are wondering how there can be any cases reported with a PD in 2014 for EB2-ROW, when PERM processing dates are still in 2013 and a regular processed NIW takes a long time to adjudicate?

If so, you are not alone. It begs the question of what the Inventory does represent. I sure appears it isn't strictly by PD as it is advertized to be. That makes use of it rather limited IMO.

[helooo]

Hi Q,Spec
Does this inventory give us idea regarding SO to EB2I?Thank You!

[Jagan01]

Am I correct in thinking you are wondering how there can be any cases reported with a PD in 2014 for EB2-ROW, when PERM processing dates are still in 2013 and a regular processed NIW takes a long time to adjudicate?

If so, you are not alone. It begs the question of what the Inventory does represent. I sure appears it isn't strictly by PD as it is advertized to be. That makes use of it rather limited IMO.

Spec,

You are correct. That is what I have been wondering. I feel it is best to go with your advice to treat the rest of the data in inventory as unimportant and inaccurate. The only good use of the inventory is to see the pending EB2I demand. EB2ROW and EB1 numbers may be misleading.

[Spectator]

Hi Q,Spec
Does this inventory give us idea regarding SO to EB2I?Thank You!

Not in my opinion.

The continuing high number of EB1 might suggest that EB1 approvals are not going to slow down if USCIS process them to approval.

[Spectator]

Spec,

You are correct. That is what I have been wondering. I feel it is best to go with your advice to treat the rest of the data in inventory as unimportant and inaccurate. The only good use of the inventory is to see the pending EB2I demand. EB2ROW and EB1 numbers may be misleading.

I didn't say it was unimportant. I might say I wouldn't be concerned at looking at the individual monthly totals and trying to explain them.

In general, it's difficult to glean information, because any changes are only net. Without knowing either the number of approvals, or the number of additions within a period, I find it difficult to tease out truly useful information.

That's without even considering that there are cases that will never (theoretically) ever appear in the Inventory. i.e. the I-140 is approved after publication of the last Inventory and the I-485 is approved before the publication of the next Inventory.

My memory is a little hazy (since it was some months ago) and I am not going to repeat the exercise, but where there was sufficient information in the Trackitt case, I remember around a third of EB1C Trackitt approvals this year would never have appeared in the Inventory for that reason. I don't consider that figure very reliable, because only a subset of total cases had sufficient information to analyze. I did it more out of my own interest to just get an idea and I mention it only to illustrate the difficulties.

That's not to say someone else looking at the data might not have that aha moment - I've realized my shortcomings in trying to do so. And I have tried multiple times.

I would say the same about trying to gauge future EB3 demand from the PERM data. Another problem I have found intractable to date.

Enough wallowing in self pity. Sniff.

I think both those problems need new blood, with new enthusiasm to tackle them.

[infoseek]

Dear Friends, Been a while since I logged in... but was mostly here reading up on the excellent analysis. Had to log in today to share ... finally got greened. Details:

PD - 03/23/2009
I-140 Approval - 04/18/2011
Fingerprinting - 03/26/2012
EAD/AP Approval - 03/10/2012
EAD/AP Card - 03/14/2012
I-485 Approval - 05/05/2014
Green Card - 05/08/2014

I received under Chinese quota (my wife is Chinese). FYI I got a note in Apr from a legal representative from the firm that filed my case that they will send a note to USCIS about my eligibility for cross chargeability for a fee. But they also disclosed that cross chargeability is applied automatically and generally there would be no need for any kind of follow up. I choose not to follow up (wait for a few days first)... luckily case was approved pretty fast.

[qesehmk]

Many congratulations for the GC infoseek! Enjoy the freedom. What an innovative lawyer.

Dear Friends, Been a while since I logged in... but was mostly here reading up on the excellent analysis. Had to log in today to share ... finally got greened. Details:

PD - 03/23/2009
I-140 Approval - 04/18/2011
Fingerprinting - 03/26/2012
EAD/AP Approval - 03/10/2012
EAD/AP Card - 03/14/2012
I-485 Approval - 05/05/2014
Green Card - 05/08/2014

I received under Chinese quota (my wife is Chinese). FYI I got a note in Apr from a legal representative from the firm that filed my case that they will send a note to USCIS about my eligibility for cross chargeability for a fee. But they also disclosed that cross chargeability is applied automatically and generally there would be no need for any kind of follow up. I choose not to follow up (wait for a few days first)... luckily case was approved pretty fast.

[Spectator]

infoseek,

Congratulations.

[YTeleven]

Interesting document revealing the past EB stats and the calculations used by DHS to arrive at the pending/approved I-140s with H1Bs and still waiting to file I-485s.
http://www.ofr.gov/OFRUpload/OFRData/2014-10734_PI.pdf

[Spectator]

Interesting document revealing the past EB stats and the calculations used by DHS to arrive at the pending/approved I-140s with H1Bs and still waiting to file I-485s.
http://www.ofr.gov/OFRUpload/OFRData/2014-10734_PI.pdf

I thought the other document dealing with Enhancing Opportunities for H-1B1, CW-1, and E-3 Nonimmigrants and EB-1 Immigrants was equally, or more interesting, since it contained some very rare statistics for EB1 on page 52.

It gives data for Immigrant Petition for Alien Worker (I-140) with Outstanding Professor or Researcher Preference Receipts and Completions, FY 2003-2013, shows an over 93.3% approval % over the last 5 years and that there are only an average of about 3.3k I-140 applications per year under EB1B over the last 5 years. Even with the average number of dependents for EB1, the approval figures suggest there are only about 8k I-485 approvals per year.

It's not entirely new information, since it can be derived form the DHS figures, but interesting nonetheless.

[gs1968]

I read an article in the Huffingtonpost where it states that the total number of Green cards issued last year (2013) has decreased dramatically

"net immigration down from nearly 1.2 million as of 2001 to 843,145 last year"
This is the link to the article

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/0...n_5218833.html

Since the DHS Statistical Year book for FY-2013 has not been published,I am assuming that somebody at Huffpost has had a sneak peek at the statistics. However according to one of Spec's links to the DoS THE FB to EB Spillover has already been calculated and is about 10000 indicating that most of the FB visas were used.The refugee quota was met last year and so was the EB. I wonder where the drop is coming from and I can only think of the Immediate relatives category

[Spectator]

I read an article in the Huffingtonpost where it states that the total number of Green cards issued last year (2013) has decreased dramatically

"net immigration down from nearly 1.2 million as of 2001 to 843,145 last year"
This is the link to the article

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/0...n_5218833.html

Since the DHS Statistical Year book for FY-2013 has not been published,I am assuming that somebody at Huffpost has had a sneak peek at the statistics. However according to one of Spec's links to the DoS THE FB to EB Spillover has already been calculated and is about 10000 indicating that most of the FB visas were used.The refugee quota was met last year and so was the EB. I wonder where the drop is coming from and I can only think of the Immediate relatives category

gs1968,

That seems too low a figure.

I wonder if the clue is that they are talking about NET immigration, so Americans emigrating would be deducted from Immigrants arriving.

As far as last year (FY2013) is concerned, some figures can be gleaned from the DOS reports already published.

FB ------- 215,753
EB ------- 161,269
Diversity -- 51,080

Consular Processed Immediate Relatives were 205,435 (compared to 235,616 in FY2012). Using the same split between CP and AOS for IR as in FY2012 implies :

IR ------- 411,895 (compared to 478,780 in FY2012)

I couldn't find any information about Refugees and Asylees.

If we assume the number as the same as FY2012 (151k) and do the same for other categories not included, then overall Immigration is about 1 million, which is comparable to the number in FY2012.

[gs1968]

To Spec
Thanks for the clarification.For some reason the net number was too low even by the standards of the snail-paced USCIS!

Asylum numbers are hard to find but the annual refugee totals are in the link below

http://www.wrapsnet.org/Home/tabid/5...rs-Are-In.aspx

The ceiling for FY-2013 was the same as this year i.e 70000. That was almost completely achieved according to the link above which is a huge improvement from FY-2012 (56000 resettled against a ceiling of 70000).

WRAPSNET also gives a running total bi-monthly on refugee resettlement including an breakdown on primary beneficiaries and derivatives.The conservatives have always argued the difference between "ceiling" and "target"!!

[gs1968]

To Spec

I need to clarify the above post on the refugee numbers. The numbers on the webpage reflect refugee arrivals in the uSA but by law they can apply for I-485 only after 12 months.Hence the year book numbers reflect AOS for refugees who arrived in the previous FY and in FY-2012 this was only 58200. However the net refugee numbers are always in excess of the ceiling due to family re-unification (following-to-join) and not considering Cuban refugees towards the ceiling (usually about 25000 per year).It still seems enough to reach the one million mark as you have said.We will know soon when the next YearBook is released in June

[Spectator]

To Spec

I need to clarify the above post on the refugee numbers. The numbers on the webpage reflect refugee arrivals in the USA but by law they can apply for I-485 only after 12 months.Hence the year book numbers reflect AOS for refugees who arrived in the previous FY and in FY-2012 this was only 58200. However the net refugee numbers are always in excess of the ceiling due to family re-unification (following-to-join) and not considering Cuban refugees towards the ceiling (usually about 25000 per year).It still seems enough to reach the one million mark as you have said.We will know soon when the next Year Book is released in June

gs1968,

Thanks for the additional explanations about refugee numbers and how they work. Consider yourself the expert on the matter.

I admit I was slightly confused, because despite the 70k ceiling mentioned in your first post, the number of refugees reported in the DHS figures for FY2012 was 105,528. Your additional information explains the difference.

Thanks.

[gs1968]

To Spec
I promise that this will be the last on this subject as I feel that the majority of us in this forum are interested in EB visa issues.The Cubans qualify under the Cuban Adjustment Act of 1966 where if they can show residence in the USA for 12 months they are eligible for LPR status

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_R...Adjustment_Act

These numbers are not counted towards the annual ceiling and can obviously vary from year to year. Also the US guarantees 20000 visitor visas to Cuba to avoid Cubans making risky attempts to cross the seas and a lot of them end up adjusting their status.

[infoseek]

infoseek,

Congratulations.

Q/Spec,
Thank you. Also thanks for this excellent forum. All the analysis by all Gurus here was very helpful with many decisions during the wait time.

[sairam09]

Spec,

Whats your gut feel about the movement for this year for EB2-I. Wait is killing all of us...

[Spectator]

Spec,

Whats your gut feel about the movement for this year for EB2-I. Wait is killing all of us...

I've already put my thoughts on the first page, which I update fairly frequently, but the uncertainty is such that the range alters almost daily.

Pessimistic to Optimistic, I could see a range of 01OCT08 to 01MAR09 with a likely point at about 01JAN09. It is looking increasingly tough for PD2009 people this year.

It depends how EB2-WW and EB1 perform during the remainder of the year. I can see it going either way. Of course, the amount of pent up porting that can be approved when the dates move forward is also another consideration.