EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[vizcard]

I've moved the discussion about Medical Exam Validity and RFE for Expiring Medical Exams to its own thread.

Can someone respond to my post on the Med Exam thread

[YTeleven]

Hi Spec,

It looks like the RFEs are mostly reported by EB3 I with PDs up to Dec end 2003. I am wondering by any chance does this mean that EB3 I might move to Dec 2003 in the coming June Bulletin. Does that mean there is going to be a much larger movement in the 4th quarter? Please let us know your opinion on this.

Best Regards
Amul

Amul,

Please check this.. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...5855#post45855
Per my calculations, EB3I CY2003 I-485 applications will be completed by Sep'14 or Nov'14 , so you can expect the PD movement till Dec'03 during that time around and NOT in June VB.
If we get the huge spillover for EB3I from EB3ROW like last year then you might see the dates moving earlier.

[amulchandra]

Amul,

Please check this.. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...5855#post45855
Per my calculations, EB3I FY2003 applications will be completed by Sep'14 or Nov'14 , so you can expect the PD movement till Dec'03 during that time around and NOT in June VB.
If we get the huge spillover for EB3I from EB3ROW like last year then you might see the dates moving earlier.

Thank you very much for your response YT. I hope your words come true and EB3 I indeed receives some spillover this year.

Best Regards
Amul

[ROCK72]

Here's my predictions based on decrease in demand for EB3I last 4 years (quota + portings+withdrawals/denials)

Date of Pending Inventory India EB3 Inventory Annual Decrease/year Mean Decrease (in 4 years)
Jan-10 60874 NA 7202
Jan-11 58440 2434
Jan-12 51160 7280
Jan-13 45246 5914
Jan-14 32066 13180
Total Decrease -> 28808 (in 4 years)

Optimistic Conservative Pessimistic
Reduction in Demand -> 13,314 7,437 5,674
15-Nov-04 15-Apr-04 01-Mar-04

[ksur23]

Found this in ambals.blogspot.com

The number of Green Cards issued under EB2 India category is as follows:

FY 2013 - 17,193
FY 2012 - 19,726
FY 2011 - 23,997
FY 2010 - 19,961
FY 2009 - 10,106
FY 2008 - 14,806

According to the blogger 16k spillovers will take EB2I to March '09.

1. What is realistically possible for EB2I spillovers in FY 2014?

2. Around what spillover range will EB2I end up March or later? 12-13k? 16-17k? beyond 17k?

3. Is March 09 or beyond realistic?





Disclaimer: My pd is jan 2009 and hence the interest in likelihood of Q1 2009 EB2I movement.

p.s. Thanks to all for the matured discussion, very respectful here despite the anonymity which tends to evoke the basest instincts among internet denizens.

[bzabza]

Found this in ambals.blogspot.com

The number of Green Cards issued under EB2 India category is as follows:

FY 2013 - 17,193
FY 2012 - 19,726
FY 2011 - 23,997
FY 2010 - 19,961
FY 2009 - 10,106
FY 2008 - 14,806

According to the blogger 16k spillovers will take EB2I to March '09.

1. What is realistically possible for EB2I spillovers in FY 2014?

2. Around what spillover range will EB2I end up March or later? 12-13k? 16-17k? beyond 17k?

3. Is March 09 or beyond realistic?





Disclaimer: My pd is jan 2009 and hence the interest in likelihood of Q1 2009 EB2I movement.

p.s. Thanks to all for the matured discussion, very respectful here despite the anonymity which tends to evoke the basest instincts among internet denizens.

That's what i noticed here in this form and trackitt. I used to visit another website and there if you ask any question you will notice people screaming at you and ask for donations.

[Spectator]

According to the blogger 16k spillovers will take EB2I to March '09.

1. What is realistically possible for EB2I spillovers in FY 2014?

2. Around what spillover range will EB2I end up March or later? 12-13k? 16-17k? beyond 17k?

3. Is March 09 or beyond realistic?

The figures, with some more detail, are also available here on the forum.

My personal opinion is that I think it would be more accurate to say, x amount more approvals this FY are required.

The blog post does not appear to account for those approvals already made in October/November 2013. I think the numbers presented therefore underestimate the total approvals required this FY to reach the Cut Off dates mentioned.

The actual number required to reach a Cut Off date of 01MAR09 is probably more like 18-20k plus any further porting cases from EB3 who already have an I-485 pending less cases that fall through to next year.

With the possibility of large Fall Across from EB2-WW, over 20k total approvals for EB2-I are possible.

I would start to hesitate about any movement much beyond March 2009, at least until I can better understand what EB2-WW and EB1 might do in the second half of the FY.

[YTeleven]

1. What is realistically possible for EB2I spillovers in FY 2014?

2. Around what spillover range will EB2I end up March or later? 12-13k? 16-17k? beyond 17k?

3. Is March 09 or beyond realistic?

Check this post too...it considers the visas allocated for FY14 till Feb'14.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...5804#post45804

[surya1975]

The figures, with some more detail, are also available here on the forum.

My personal opinion is that I think it would be more accurate to say, x amount more approvals this FY are required.

The blog post does not appear to account for those approvals already made in October/November 2013. I think the numbers presented therefore underestimate the total approvals required this FY to reach the Cut Off dates mentioned.

The actual number required to reach a Cut Off date of 01MAR09 is probably more like 18-20k plus any further porting cases from EB3 who already have an I-485 pending less cases that fall through to next year.

With the possibility of large Fall Across from EB2-WW, over 20k total approvals for EB2-I are possible.

I would start to hesitate about any movement much beyond March 2009, at least until I can better understand what EB2-WW and EB1 might do in the second half of the FY.

Spec, you mean to say PD max movement will be March 2009 in FY 2014?

[triplet]

Welcome back Spec! Good to see you back, didn't think you were coming back this time. Look forward to your calculations and predictions for this year's movement.

[triplet]

Spec, you mean to say PD max movement will be March 2009 in FY 2014?

I think March is on the optimistic side of things, that's what I have gathered from the ongoing analysis on where the dates might end up this year. With so many factors still unclear it is hard to say, let us wait another month or two to find out how they will be calibrating movement. Good luck to you Surya.

[triplet]

I know there are plenty of us who have a chance of breaking through this year, if medical tests are indeed to be renewed, I wonder what impact this will have on date movement.

[surya1975]

I think March is on the optimistic side of things, that's what I have gathered from the ongoing analysis on where the dates might end up this year. With so many factors still unclear it is hard to say, let us wait another month or two to find out how they will be calibrating movement. Good luck to you Surya.

Thank you Triplet...! my PD is 6/3/09. I think I have to wait one more FY.

I love this site. All seniors answers help a lot to get relief from GC/job tensions and also help to plan future.

[gcpursuit]

Saw this on oh-law firm website. Waiting for comments from the experts here.


04/28/2014: Unofficial Prediction of EB Visa Cut-Off Dates Ahead

According to the AILA, the following are the State Department's prediction for EB visa date movement for the rest of the FY 2014. It is just a rough prediction and the actual dates can turn out to be a little different:
EB-2 India: As we reported a number of times, the cut-date is likely to move forward in either August or September to either January 1, 2008 or any date in 2008 in order to prevent waste of unused EB-2 numbers.
EB-3: Worldwide EB-3 can even move backward as early as May or June 2014
EB-3: China may also move backward as early as May or June 2014 probably caused by high down grade demand
Beware.

[qesehmk]

Thanks gcpursuit. There could be other things ... but one thing that quickly catches my eye is EB2I prediction. I believe the date has to move much farther than Jan 1 2008. Possibly 1 year ahead of that.

Saw this on oh-law firm website. Waiting for comments from the experts here.


04/28/2014: Unofficial Prediction of EB Visa Cut-Off Dates Ahead

According to the AILA, the following are the State Department's prediction for EB visa date movement for the rest of the FY 2014. It is just a rough prediction and the actual dates can turn out to be a little different:
EB-2 India: As we reported a number of times, the cut-date is likely to move forward in either August or September to either January 1, 2008 or any date in 2008 in order to prevent waste of unused EB-2 numbers.
EB-3: Worldwide EB-3 can even move backward as early as May or June 2014
EB-3: China may also move backward as early as May or June 2014 probably caused by high down grade demand
Beware.

[sairam09]

Thanks gcpursuit. There could be other things ... but one thing that quickly catches my eye is EB2I prediction. I believe the date has to move much farther than Jan 1 2008. Possibly 1 year ahead of that.

Thanks for your inputs!

[vizcard]

Saw this on oh-law firm website. Waiting for comments from the experts here.


04/28/2014: Unofficial Prediction of EB Visa Cut-Off Dates Ahead

According to the AILA, the following are the State Department's prediction for EB visa date movement for the rest of the FY 2014. It is just a rough prediction and the actual dates can turn out to be a little different:
EB-2 India: As we reported a number of times, the cut-date is likely to move forward in either August or September to either January 1, 2008 or any date in 2008 in order to prevent waste of unused EB-2 numbers.
EB-3: Worldwide EB-3 can even move backward as early as May or June 2014
EB-3: China may also move backward as early as May or June 2014 probably caused by high down grade demand
Beware.

"Any date in 2008" could be 12/31/2008 too.

[rs3533]

Even 15K Allocation to EB2I in FY 2014 should take the dates beyond 1/1/2008 according to calculations done here.

[tatikonda]

This is not a kind of news one would expect from AILA. it is obviously that dates will dates will move in either Aug or Sept ... or any date in 2008 .

Saw this on oh-law firm website. Waiting for comments from the experts here.


04/28/2014: Unofficial Prediction of EB Visa Cut-Off Dates Ahead

According to the AILA, the following are the State Department's prediction for EB visa date movement for the rest of the FY 2014. It is just a rough prediction and the actual dates can turn out to be a little different:
EB-2 India: As we reported a number of times, the cut-date is likely to move forward in either August or September to either January 1, 2008 or any date in 2008 in order to prevent waste of unused EB-2 numbers.
EB-3: Worldwide EB-3 can even move backward as early as May or June 2014
EB-3: China may also move backward as early as May or June 2014 probably caused by high down grade demand
Beware.

[EB2-03252009]

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...5804#post45804

above link says there will be 21K SO, if its true, will the cut off be April 1st 2009?

The figures, with some more detail, are also available here on the forum.

My personal opinion is that I think it would be more accurate to say, x amount more approvals this FY are required.

The blog post does not appear to account for those approvals already made in October/November 2013. I think the numbers presented therefore underestimate the total approvals required this FY to reach the Cut Off dates mentioned.

The actual number required to reach a Cut Off date of 01MAR09 is probably more like 18-20k plus any further porting cases from EB3 who already have an I-485 pending less cases that fall through to next year.

With the possibility of large Fall Across from EB2-WW, over 20k total approvals for EB2-I are possible.

I would start to hesitate about any movement much beyond March 2009, at least until I can better understand what EB2-WW and EB1 might do in the second half of the FY.

[sairam09]

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...5804#post45804

above link says there will be 21K SO, if its true, will the cut off be April 1st 2009?

Spec any comments from your side? Post update from CO with AILA?

[PD2008AUG25]

One lawyer says:

#DOS states there will be no movement in #EB-2 dates until July & demand for #EB-3 has increased, so no progression in visa dates for now.

https://twitter.com/lawspeak/statuse...10725642285057

I have no idea of original source.

If it means that there will be a movement in July, then it's a good news. Most people are rooting for August.

[Spectator]

Spec any comments from your side? Post update from CO with AILA?

I go away for a few days and it all kicks off!

I need to look at what has been said and published and then I will reply, probably tomorrow sometime.

In the meantime, here's some more comprehensive reporting than the Oh site.

CILawgroup (probably the most comprehensive, since it also mentions FB.
WSM
ILW Blog

PS to Q.

I am having some difficulty accessing the Calculations thread while signed on - it is hanging on the redirection. I can access it (sort of) by replying to a post, then signing on when asked, but I still can't read the thread while signed on.

[qesehmk]

Spec - I am sorry ... I have caused whatever this is. I was fiddling with some php settings and must have screwed up things. Let me look into it.
p.s. Fixed it i guess. Forgot to include directory path in quotes in php.ini. But php is quite forgiving. It runs as long as it can with errors!

PS to Q.

I am having some difficulty accessing the Calculations thread while signed on - it is hanging on the redirection. I can access it (sort of) by replying to a post, then signing on when asked, but I still can't read the thread while signed on.

[Spectator]

Spec - I am sorry ... I have caused whatever this is. I was fiddling with some php settings and must have screwed up things. Let me look into it.
p.s. Fixed it i guess. Forgot to include directory path in quotes in php.ini. But php is quite forgiving. It runs as long as it can with errors!

Q,

No problem. I just wanted to let you know in case it was affecting other people as well.

I'm glad you were able to identify the cause and rectify it.

It's all working correctly for me now.

Thanks for the swift resolution.