EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[kd2008]

kd,

All that said, EB3-ROW numbers don't appear to be that large in historical terms.

Numbers seem somewhat larger for 2008/2009 PD compared to 2010/2011. PD2012 seems incomplete to date.

I would not like to guess really, since I have little confidence in the underlying assumptions used to calculate the number. I have some numbers I am using, but I don't feel comfortable sharing them, since they have such a high error margin.

I think EB3-ROW have more than enough cases for their allocation this year - to the extent that the Cut Off Date will probably retrogress before year end if sufficient cases are adjudicated. Next year could be quite interesting.

I would be very interested to hear any thoughts you have on the matter, as well as those of anyone else.

Spec, I am having a hard time seeing the numbers in the dashboard data that could be attributed to EB3ROW filings that would make retrogression necessary (unless EB2ROW filings are in the toilet - they may be low but not negligible or EB1 filings are low - also unlikely). You also bring up an important aspect about processing. For retrogressing not only filings have to be in huge numbers but so must the adjudications ramp up. I think CO may hang up boots rather than calibrate retrogression - that is he will keep dates where they are till the annual quota is consumed and then make it "U" if necessary - that would be fair to EB3ROW filers. Depending on the processing volume, he may have to do it just one or two months.

[Spectator]

Spec, I am having a hard time seeing the numbers in the dashboard data that could be attributed to EB3ROW filings that would make retrogression necessary (unless EB2ROW filings are in the toilet - they may be low but not negligible or EB1 filings are low - also unlikely). You also bring up an important aspect about processing. For retrogressing not only filings have to be in huge numbers but so must the adjudications ramp up. I think CO may hang up boots rather than calibrate retrogression - that is he will keep dates where they are till the annual quota is consumed and then make it "U" if necessary - that would be fair to EB3ROW filers. Depending on the processing volume, he may have to do it just one or two months.

kd,

Everybody looks at data differently. As I said before, there are problems determining the underlying EB number of receipts from the I-485 dashboard data, yet alone drilling deeper to the categories. I've already said I am finding it difficult to determine the EB3-ROW demand.

Even so, I see a fairly healthy underlying overall EB numbers within the total EB receipts. Consider the following. Virtually none are EB5, some are EB4 and some are EB1. Currently EB2 has virtually no new EB2-I applications (due to the COD - when dates were more advanced, the numbers were correspondingly higher) and fairly low EB2-ROW/M/P applications are suspected due to PERM processing lengths. There are virtually no new EB3-I cases at present and the majority of EB3-P cases are CP (i.e. no I-485). That leaves a healthy potential number for EB3-ROW/C/M and has done for many months now, since the numbers ramped up when the dates moved forward last year. Some of those were approved last FY.

If EB2-P has lower approvals, then the number of EB3-P approvals can be correspondingly higher within the overall 7% limit. That acts to limit the EB3-ROW/C/M allocation.

Only as secondary evidence, the number of Trackitt approvals for EB3-ROW are already at 90% of last year's total for the full FY.

I'm aware this secondary evidence has potentially quite shaky foundations. I therefore don't wish to put too much weight on this factor.

The Trackitt cases represent a new "post July 2007" crop and it is possible the % representation has changed. On the other hand a fair proportion of last year's approvals also came from this new intake.

I don't think CO really likes to use "Unavailable" as a control mechanism, but I agree that what you say is possible, especially if it is only for 1 or 2 months. I also agree it wouldn't be a bad thing, since it would virtually ensure that EB3 use the entire allocation available to them.

[qesehmk]

Spec

Generally if you look at nebrasca and texas centers .... that is a good barometer of EB 485 demand. Not perfect but close.

p.s. - As always I always look at relative demand i.e. relative to prior years as opposed to absolute numbers.

kd,

As I said before, there are problems determining the underlying EB number of receipts from the I-485 dashboard data, .

[Spectator]

Spec

Generally if you look at nebrasca and texas centers .... that is a good barometer of EB 485 demand. Not perfect but close.

p.s. - As always I always look at relative demand i.e. relative to prior years as opposed to absolute numbers.

Q,

Agreed. I do look at that as well - first actually.

By that measure, the receipt numbers are very healthy, despite potential downturns in some categories. That also suggests the shortfall is being made up elsewhere.

[qesehmk]

I actually believe that EB3ROW demand has somewhat dried up over last few years because of two reasons ..
a) Since 2007 EB3ROW has stopped receiving spillover and hence EB3ROW backlog started growing and as a result ROW folks have turned more and more to EB2 category.
b) Economy is not healthy.

So although the demand in EB3ROW seems healthy today - it is not because right now EB3ROW is in the phase of clearing backlog. Once it clears up the backlog in 1-2 years that will be the time when we will be able to see the "secular" EB3ROW demand which I believe is going to underutilize their quota.

Q,

Agreed. I do look at that as well - first actually.

By that measure, the receipt numbers are very healthy, despite potential downturns in some categories. That also suggests the shortfall is being made up elsewhere.

[Spectator]

I actually believe that EB3ROW demand has somewhat dried up over last few years because of two reasons ..
a) Since 2007 EB3ROW has stopped receiving spillover and hence EB3ROW backlog started growing and as a result ROW folks have turned more and more to EB2 category.
b) Economy is not healthy.

So although the demand in EB3ROW seems healthy today - it is not because right now EB3ROW is in the phase of clearing backlog. Once it clears up the backlog in 1-2 years that will be the time when we will be able to see the "secular" EB3ROW demand which I believe is going to underutilize their quota.

Q,

We are as one on this subject.

The post July 2007 numbers seem much lower than the previous historic annual number and it appears to be a declining number as the PD year increases.

I agree that reflects the same increase seen in the % of applicants applying under EB2 during the same period.

I'm almost positive that EB3-ROW demand will underutilize their allocation next year and may well become Current. The only caveat would be if that in itself acts to attract more applicants under EB3, although many of those might be those who would otherwise have applied under EB2 or EB2-C "downgraders".

I think a third leg is that it has become increasingly difficult for ROW to obtain an H1B, due to over-subsciption of the annual quota and the relative distribution of applications. I can think of other reasons why ROW numbers may have decreased as well.

[qesehmk]

The only caveat would be if that in itself acts to attract more applicants under EB3, although many of those might be those who would otherwise have applied under EB2 or EB2-C "downgraders".

....
I think a third leg is that it has become increasingly difficult for ROW to obtain an H1B, due to over-subsciption of the annual quota and the relative distribution of applications. I can think of other reasons why ROW numbers may have decreased as well.

Yes indeed Spec. EB3 becoming current will then attract more applicants. But there would be some lag there and so it will remain current at least for a while before retrogressing again!

I am glad that H1 doesn't have a country quota but at the same time I do think that H1 limits should be increased and some fields need to be protected like somebody was talking about social sciences finding it difficult to get H1. But I guess that would be roundabout way to fix misguided economic policy. The absolute right thing is lifting of H1 limits and putting strict controls on what is eligible for H1. As well as completely removing intercompany transfers visa and replacing it with H1 visa without the PERM requirement but having the requirement to pay H1 wages.

Finally I also think that EB1C category should be downgraded to EB2. It is quite close to being abused.

[Jagan01]

Yes indeed Spec. EB3 becoming current will then attract more applicants. But there would be some lag there and so it will remain current at least for a while before retrogressing again!

I am glad that H1 doesn't have a country quota but at the same time I do think that H1 limits should be increased and some fields need to be protected like somebody was talking about social sciences finding it difficult to get H1. But I guess that would be roundabout way to fix misguided economic policy. The absolute right thing is lifting of H1 limits and putting strict controls on what is eligible for H1. As well as completely removing intercompany transfers visa and replacing it with H1 visa without the PERM requirement but having the requirement to pay H1 wages.

Finally I also think that EB1C category should be downgraded to EB2. It is quite close to being abused.

Q,
Complete agree with you. Especially on the EB1C category. Its being abused badly.

Spec,
EB1C is a real concern and I have been trying to figure out how much they would consume. Trackitt approvals seem very vague. Below are the trackkitt primary approvals.

--------------Trackitt------Real
FY 2012-------302---------9209
FY 2013-------217---------UNKNOWN

I noticed that FY 2013 showed lower approvals for EB1A, EB1B, EB1C as compared to FY 2012. However, the usage was approx the same. Do you think trackitt representation reduced in 2013 ?

This year there are already 200+ primary approvals on trackitt. How many visas you predict EB1 will be using ?

[2med_rfe]

Hi Gurus, my PD is March 9, 2009 and my chargeability is EB2I. I had received an RFE (Medical - flu vaccine) in 2012, I replied to the RFE, against my attorney's advice, that it is not flu season, so the USCIS waited until it was flu season and issued me a second RFE for not having taken flu vaccine, in October 2012. I had to take flu vaccine for the first time in 15 years (I chose to take the vaccine this time around and get done with it). My case status reads - "Request for Evidence Response Review", this since early November 2012. I would greatly appreciate the Gurus thoughts on -

Based on the posts from justvisiting and Spectator, what COULD happen to my case, will it sit there in the queue if in the event that dates move past my PD of March 9 2009 for EB2I? Will they work on it immediately or keep it in abeyance?

Should I reach out to the Senator for help as soon as I learn that dates moved past my PD.

Please advise!

Thanks!

[amulchandra]

As much as a pain it is, if USCIS issue RFEs for new medicals in a timely fashion, there is no need for it to disrupt anything regarding processing and visa use.

As far as EB2-I goes, the dates aren't likely to move forward until July at the earliest (although I think it will more likely be August). If the RFEs are issued and replied to in a timely fashion, there will be nothing to stop approval on the same timescale as without the RFE.

It is a problem if USCIS wait to the last minute to issue RFEs, so it is actually encouraging to hear about them so early.

If USCIS are no longer going to extend the validity of the I-693 on a yearly basis, they really need to up the acceptable validity period to at least 2-3 years by way of a new Memo or regulation. People (especially in EB2-I) can become Current multiple times, just over a year apart (or just over year since the date of the last I-693) before their case is adjudicated. It really would not be fair to expect a new I-693 every year under those circumstances.

As best I can tell, the I-693 RFEs have so far only been received by EB3 applicants who first filed in 2007.

Hi Spec,

It looks like the RFEs are mostly reported by EB3 I with PDs up to Dec end 2003. I am wondering by any chance does this mean that EB3 I might move to Dec 2003 in the coming June Bulletin. Does that mean there is going to be a much larger movement in the 4th quarter? Please let us know your opinion on this.

Best Regards
Amul

[Spectator]

Hi Spec,

It looks like the RFEs are mostly reported by EB3 I with PDs up to Dec end 2003. I am wondering by any chance does this mean that EB3 I might move to Dec 2003 in the coming June Bulletin. Does that mean there is going to be a much larger movement in the 4th quarter? Please let us know your opinion on this.

Best Regards
Amul

Amul,

I think covering PDs to the end of December 2003 may be something of a stretch this FY. It would need Fall Across from EB3-ROW.

The last Demand Data (as of Feb 7, 2014) showed 2,775 cases prior to the end of 2003 and the last USCIS Inventory (as of January 2014) showed over 4,000 before the end of 2003. November and December 2003 account for over 2,000 cases alone in the Inventory data.

Those numbers don't include the fairly substantial number of EB3-I approvals that took place in October/November 2013.

I think USCIS are probably looking at more cases than necessary, just in case extra visas should become available, or to ensure they have a head start for the next FY.

[talls22]

Spec/Q,

I have a EB3I PD of Feb 6, 2008 and EB2I PD of Dec 2012. My EB2 I-140 got approved today Apr 23 2014 and have opted for Consular processing in New Delhi. Can you please guide me on next steps? Is there any chance of getting greened this year? Thanks

[Spectator]

Spec/Q,

I have a EB3I PD of Feb 6, 2008 and EB2I PD of Dec 2012. My EB2 I-140 got approved today Apr 23 2014 and have opted for Consular processing in New Delhi. Can you please guide me on next steps? Is there any chance of getting greened this year? Thanks

talls,

Congrats on your I-140 approval.

My knowledge of Consular processing is hazy at best. There are some quite good descriptions of the CP process on the internet, which you should search for to get more detail. Here's a few links I found on a quick search:

http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/gree...lar-processing
http://www.immihelp.com/immigrant-visa/
http://www.hooyou.com/consularprocess/faq.html
http://algvisas.com/?page_id=28
http://www.hooyou.com/consularprocess/steps.html

Some of the descriptions may be slightly out of date.

In general:

Now your I-140 is approved and CP was designated, USCIS will send the I-140 to the National Visa Center (NVC) for further processing.

Once NVC have completed initial processing, if the PD is likely to become current in a reasonable period, NVC will send a packet asking you to pay the processing fee and provide some information about yourself and any dependents who will CP.

At some point, a second packet will be sent which requires more information - from memory that includes police clearance certificates and the like.

Eventually, an interview will be scheduled. You will have to undergo a medical examination in your home Country prior to attending the interview.

Following a successful interview, you will receive an Immigrant stamp in your passport and a sealed package containing documents related to your case.

You will have 6 months to return to the USA and activate your immigrant visa. At POE, you would be sent to secondary and hand over the sealed package. Once processed, your passport would be endorsed with a temporary I-551 stamp and you would be admitted to the USA as a Legal Permanent Resident. The GC would arrive in the post at a later date.

Please don't rely on the above - it is very generic and from memory.

Best of luck.

PS:- You can choose to switch from CP to AOS (if you are legally present in the USA) if you wish to. I believe all you have to do is file an I-485 when your PD is current. USCIS will then request the I-140 from NVC. This would probably introduce a delay, but you would be able to benefit from AOS specific provisions such as EAD, AP and AC21 I-140 portability after the I-485 has been pending 180 days. You would lose any fees paid to NVC.

[qesehmk]

Spec/Q,

I have a EB3I PD of Feb 6, 2008 and EB2I PD of Dec 2012. My EB2 I-140 got approved today Apr 23 2014 and have opted for Consular processing in New Delhi. Can you please guide me on next steps? Is there any chance of getting greened this year? Thanks

talls - I can't give any better info than Spec on next steps. However I can say this -- you will be current in August if not September. I think there is very good chance you will get a GC by Dec or earlier. If yours was a normal 485 - I would've said you would get a GC by Sept. But because of the CP thing and the fact that now the case is going to go to NVC I would imagine that might add some delay. But 2014 is your year. Good luck.

[talls22]

Thanks for the great info! Really appreciate the same. As India PD will cross early 2008 only for 4-5 months starting from Jul/Aug do you think I have any chance to go thru all stages of CP during this time frame?

Other option I was thinking was my wife got H1B in this year lottery so I can travel on H4 and file I-485 from US in Oct. Is this legal/possible solution?

[Spectator]

Other option I was thinking was my wife got H1B in this year lottery so I can travel on H4 and file I-485 from US in Oct. Is this legal/possible solution?

talls,

I had added a PS to my original post to cover that situation. I'll reproduce it here.

You can choose to switch from CP to AOS (if you are legally present in the USA) if you wish to. I believe all you have to do is file an I-485 when your PD is current. USCIS will then request the I-140 from NVC. This would probably introduce a delay, but you would be able to benefit from AOS specific provisions such as EAD, AP and AC21 I-140 portability after the I-485 has been pending 180 days. You would lose any fees paid to NVC.

It would be possible, if the PD remains current.

[talls22]

talls,

I had added a PS to my original post to cover that situation. I'll reproduce it here.



It would be possible, if the PD remains current.

Awesome! All I need is EAD/AP. I hope PD is current till Nov like last year :-)

[Spectator]

I've moved the discussion about Medical Exam Validity and RFE for Expiring Medical Exams to its own thread.

[rs3533]

Hi Spec, Q and other members of this group. You guys are awesome. Cant express enough thanks on the level of analysis done in this forum. I am a new member and have EB2I priority date Sep 22 2008. From all the noise on extra GC's available this year, porting issues as well as less spill over from EB2 ROW, I am feeling the dates may not hit Sep 2008 at all like previous year and would reverse the course in Nov of this year? Am I being too pessimistic or your calculations are taking the priority date for EB2I to atleast start of 2009?

[amulchandra]

Amul,

I think covering PDs to the end of December 2003 may be something of a stretch this FY. It would need Fall Across from EB3-ROW.

The last Demand Data (as of Feb 7, 2014) showed 2,775 cases prior to the end of 2003 and the last USCIS Inventory (as of January 2014) showed over 4,000 before the end of 2003. November and December 2003 account for over 2,000 cases alone in the Inventory data.

Those numbers don't include the fairly substantial number of EB3-I approvals that took place in October/November 2013.

I think USCIS are probably looking at more cases than necessary, just in case extra visas should become available, or to ensure they have a head start for the next FY.

Thank you very much for your reply Spec. It looks like there is no hope for EB 3 I. I was hoping that this last quarter will bring some good news for long time waiters. This is very disappointing information.

Thanks
Amul

[Spectator]

Thank you very much for your reply Spec. It looks like there is no hope for EB 3 I. I was hoping that this last quarter will bring some good news for long time waiters. This is very disappointing information.

Thanks
Amul

Amul,

Sorry I could not give a better prognosis based on the data I can see.

I could be wrong, so feel free to disagree.

I think we discussed previously that the number of porters to be deducted from EB3-I numbers for PD2003 is likely to be quite low.

[Spectator]

Hi Spec, Q and other members of this group. You guys are awesome. Cant express enough thanks on the level of analysis done in this forum. I am a new member and have EB2I priority date Sep 22 2008. From all the noise on extra GC's available this year, porting issues as well as less spill over from EB2 ROW, I am feeling the dates may not hit Sep 2008 at all like previous year and would reverse the course in Nov of this year? Am I being too pessimistic or your calculations are taking the priority date for EB2I to at least start of 2009?

rs3533,

Welcome to the forum.

I think you are being quite pessimistic.

I'm fairly confident that the Cut Off Dates will move past your PD this FY even in a fairly poor scenario.

The faster processing by DOL has really started a bit too late to majorly impact EB2-ROW approvals this FY. I don't think EB1 use will increase sufficiently to endanger your PD.

The trick is to receive an approval while the dates remain current.

Good luck.

[imdeng]

It is likely that you will be current this FY. Be ready for whatever RFE (medical, EVL, BC etc) that may land your way. I happen to be more optimistic about EB2I movement this year than most. Even if I were to be more pessimistic, I would imagine that Sept 2008 is within reach.

Hi Spec, Q and other members of this group. You guys are awesome. Cant express enough thanks on the level of analysis done in this forum. I am a new member and have EB2I priority date Sep 22 2008. From all the noise on extra GC's available this year, porting issues as well as less spill over from EB2 ROW, I am feeling the dates may not hit Sep 2008 at all like previous year and would reverse the course in Nov of this year? Am I being too pessimistic or your calculations are taking the priority date for EB2I to atleast start of 2009?

[qesehmk]

rs .. welcome to forum. The dates will hit Sep 2008. I think they may hit Q1 2009. But anything beyond looks difficult to me.

Hi Spec, Q and other members of this group. You guys are awesome. Cant express enough thanks on the level of analysis done in this forum. I am a new member and have EB2I priority date Sep 22 2008. From all the noise on extra GC's available this year, porting issues as well as less spill over from EB2 ROW, I am feeling the dates may not hit Sep 2008 at all like previous year and would reverse the course in Nov of this year? Am I being too pessimistic or your calculations are taking the priority date for EB2I to atleast start of 2009?

[rs3533]

rs .. welcome to forum. The dates will hit Sep 2008. I think they may hit Q1 2009. But anything beyond looks difficult to me.

Hi Guys

Thanks for making me optimistic from pessimistic overnight. Past 8 yrs have been very brutal because of immigration issues ranging from admin processing on h1b stamping to RFE's etc. My career has been stand still despite investing on my MBA from top univ. Every morning when I get up , I wonder if it is worth waiting for all this. I hate going to office and work does not excite me. As I can see you have mastered the calculations so I will stay put.

Any recomendations on where to get birth certificate translated into english that is acceptable to USCIS. Also how else I have to be prepared for 485 ?

Regards