Thanks Spec! Good to see your old Avatar.Originally Posted by Spectator
Thanks Spec! Good to see your old Avatar.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Nice to see EB3-I finally move forward.
I wanted to make some comments about the non-Indian Cut off Dates.
Employment Based
a) As expected, the EB3-WW Cut Off Date has stalled. I think it is possible it will retrogress in coming months.
b) EB3-Philippines has surpassed July 2007 for the first time with a large jump to 01NOV07.
c) Continued healthy forward movement for EB2-China.
Family Based
a) Fairly healthy forward movement in all Categories other than F2A.
b) The notes suggest that F2A-WW, which has been stuck at 08SEP13 for 8 months and F2A-Mexico, which was retrogressed over 16 months in March, are both likely to retrogress in coming months.
CO is slowly driving nails into the coffin of anyone who expects much in the way of extra FB numbers for EB next year. The vast majority of those extra visas have come from under use of F2A.D. VISA AVAILABILITY DURING THE COMING MONTHS
WORLDWIDE F2A: From early 2013 through September 2013, the level of demand for numbers in this preference category was extremely low. As a result, the F2A cut-off date was advanced at a very rapid pace, in an attempt to generate demand so that the annual numerical limit could be fully utilized. As readers of the Visa Bulletin were advised during that time, such cut-off date advances were not expected to continue, and at some point they could stop, or retrogression might be required.
The level of demand being experienced for FY-2014 has resulted in the Worldwide F2A cut-off date being held since October. Despite no forward movement of the cut-off date, the level of demand has continued to increase dramatically. At the current rate, such demand will require a retrogression of the F2A cut-off date within the next several months. That action would be necessary to hold number use within the annual numerical limit.
MEXICO F2A: Despite an earlier retrogression of this cut-off date, the level of demand remains extremely heavy. As a result, it is likely that another retrogression of this cut-off date will be required to hold number use within the annual limit.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Friends,
May be this doesnt mean anything. My priority date is Nov 2009. The case status has changed from acceptance to initial review. I dont know if this was initiated by the recent change in address. I am a physician and moved from RI to MA with a new employer after completing almost 5 years and 9 months for physician NIW. The requirements for completion of 5 years in medically underserved area was submitted last July. Any thoughts?
My status changed too after address change. I believe that is Standard Operating Procedure.
So technically it looks like the spillover from FB to EB may go down due to the high demand :-(. That is a bummer. Doubt if there will be any status quo in the next 3 years or so. The wait just gets longer and more frustrating.
I was expecting this might happen in 2nd half and I believe from here on EB3-I will get its monthly quota till the end of the year.
The reason behind this is that as per my estimate, the EB3-I got its 6 months of visa allocations during 1st week of the FY14 and there was a mention of this in 07-Oct-13 DD:
But nobody knows what were those numbers they have allocated for EB2-I & EB3-I on 01-Oct-2013 and continued processing the cases till Nov'13.The FY 2013 Employment annual limits were reached prior to the end of September, and no further allocation
of numbers was possible after that time. Offices continued to process Employment cases, submitted them in
the normal manner, and such cases were then held in the Visa Office’s “Pending Demand” file. All eligible
cases were then allocated Employment-based numbers on October 1, 2013, under the FY 2014 annual limits.
I tried to estimate those numbers with some assumptions in unconventional way and found this:
Attachment 548
So with new calculations,where do you think EB2I will move in July VB?Thanks!
helooo,
My own feeling is it will remain unchanged in July. I think it will move in the August VB, as it did last year. It is also what CO suggested in late November 2013.
• It is very possible that in August or September 2014, the last two months of the 2014 fiscal year, EB-2 India will advance again to around December 2008. However, that is only an educated guess at this time. No exact date is certain.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec,
My take on this:
I feel it is a temporary halt and we may see further movements in the coming months. I'm NOT seeing any red flags to retrogress. Do you see any?
From I-485 processing data I see NO spikes in new Reciepts due to this forward movement but I see there is pending inventory has risen from 50k to 81k during Oct'13 to Jan'14 period and I'm assuming those pending files includes the EB1 485s also due to processing delays. Preadjucated case are at rock bottom (probably those are just EB2-I, EB3-I & EB2-C cases). previously we used to see 100k of preadjucated cases but now left with 65k.
Also, from your PERM data, CY 2010 was the lowest point for the EB-ROW PERM approvals and the trend reversed from CY11, probably here after the forward movement might become slow but NOT completly halted or retrogressed.
YT,
My take.
EB3-ROW have seen a large increase in the number of approvals in the last two months and are now well ahead of where they need to be at this stage IMO. The number of remaining pending cases now appears more than sufficient for EB3-ROW to meet the maximum they can receive.
Unless the Service Centers stop (or severely slow) processing EB3-ROW cases, demand will outstrip remaining supply, which will necessitate retrogression before the end of the FY.
On the subject of the Service Centers, has anyone else noticed they seem to have almost stopped approving I-485 cases completely (as judged by Trackitt). NSC went to sleep some time ago, but now TSC seem to have joined them. In what is now nearly 7 working days out of 22 in April, there are only 13 total approvals on Trackitt and 6 of those were on a single day. Compare that to the 237 approvals in 21 working days in March, or 173 in 19 working days in February.
EB2-ROW has received very few approvals this year, despite an apparently very large number of pending cases. Two thirds of those have now been pending more than 4.5 months.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec,
Nice to have you back.
On the slow down regarding the EB2-ROW I- 485 approvals, is it not better for EB2-India & China in general. I guess I am being selfish, but here a couple of questions.
1. As Q & YT have pointed out earlier regarding EB2-ROW PERM slow approval rate and now what you are indicating regarding EB2-ROW 485 approval rate, is that not a double whammy for
EB2-ROW.
2. Also will the CO notice this and try to move the dates earlier for EB2-India & China so that no visas are wasted.
Thanks.
NSC:EB2 India, Priority Date:05/27/09, ND:03/08/12, NRD:03/14/12
shekhar,
1) Yes, it would be a double whammy, but it is not sustainable IMO. Frankly, I am expecting to see "a month of EB2-ROW" similar to the "month of EB1" we have just seen.
2) Quite the opposite IMO. CO will know the numbers are out there for EB2-ROW. The slower they get approved, the longer he will have to wait to move EB2-I. USCIS were able to process 15k EB2-I in Aug/Sep 2013 and at least another 5k EB3-I in Sep 2013, so he can afford to wait. EB3-I won't be a concern this year, and I think it unlikely that there will be enough spare visas for USCIS to have to process an additional 20k EB2-I cases before the end of the FY.
The slow processing rate at the Service Centers is definitely a concern - let's see how it evolves over the next 3 months.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
YT, you rock!!! Great work and fantastic presentations. Thank you.
Spec, welcome back (sniff sniff). Great to see your return. I was catching up on the posts, Q kinda teased your return with something about "Spec-The-Great" and then a few posts later, bam, I saw yours. When you left I didn't get a chance to say thank you and goodbye. I have sleeping disorders induced by immigration anxiety. This forum is my rock and I find solace from information on this forum to some extent, especially your posts. It hasn't been the same without you (not belittling others at all) and it's very comforting to have you back. I truly appreciate your contributions; Thank You.
I might as well pour out all the negatives in one go. I won't apologize for doing so, since I think it is useful to discuss all scenarios.
In a previous post, I said that the potential retrogression of all F2A and potential further retrogression of F2A-Mexico is not a good sign for EB receiving extra FB numbers next year.
If that turns out to be the case, then I think it will be very difficult for CO to repeat what he did this FY and leave the Cut Off Dates for EB2-I at a late date for the first couple of months of the new FY.
If EB only has 140k available, the amount of SOFAD available to EB2-I is likely to be quite low. CO will not be able to use most (or all) of that in the first 2 months of the FY.
This FY, CO had the luxury of knowing that around 10k extra FB numbers would be available to EB and that, maybe 7k of that would eventually be available to EB2-I, for at least 10k minimum with the initial allocation.
If there are no extra FB numbers in FY2015, CO would have to assume EB2-I could have as little as 3k available to them. A fairly early Cut Off Date would consume 3k during the year purely from upgrade cases.
Lots of "ifs", I agree, but worth considering.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec- I agree with the FB scenario. But IMHO CO's decision to not retrogress dates immediately in Oct/Nov has nothing to do with FB spillover. I think he just needs enough data to justify any action and I actually applaud him for that. Year 2014 data was not going to come in at least until early november so the earliest bulletin we can see retrogression is Dec. I think that's what will happen even for 2015 - FB spillover won't be a factor.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
I kind of find a common ground between both of your arguments. I think we need to focus on both supply and demand.
Supply:
As Spec pointed out, FB spillover will reduce. This will make CO cautious of the fact that spillover might not be great. Last year he had some confidence that there will be FB spillover and hence ended up using more than the annual quota of Eb2I in the first few months.
Demand:
I believe that demand will be a game changer. There will be lesser porters compared to the number that ported and filed I-485 last year. CO made the retrogression when he saw unprecedented demand in early Nov from porters that had actually applied in Aug/Sep and their applications became pre-adj and started showing up. The demand that CO will see in Nov will be a factor of:
- How far does he move the dates in Sep (For ex. Jan 2009 might not leave as many pending as May 2009)
- Porting demand (Porting demand will be lesser if the movement is smaller. For ex , if dates get moved to Jan 2009 then there will be new porters mainly between Jun 2008 to Jan 2009)
I personally feel that whether the retrogression happens in Oct / Nov / Dec really depends on how farther the date ends up being in Sep.
Jagan - demand supply will certainly figure into who consumes how much and how much spillover if any goes to backlogged countries/categories.
But when CO is going to move the dates -remember that he has to work with a set of laws and his own operational procedures. He can't move the dates on a whim. I am sure he has established certain thresholds. That's why I said - the only time he can make an informed decision to move dates is when data about current year consumption is made available sometime in November. Which means the earliest he can retro is in December bulletin. I think that's exactly what he did last year and will do this year.
However I agree that I do not have any proof - this is rather logical thinking on my part. Reality could be different.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Spec - good to see you back.
I had a question about inventory data sometime back. Where do you think the numbers for November/December in the latest inventory data come from for EB1 India? Since EB1C does not allow premium processing, how are these numbers so high? any ideas?
Hey .. glad to see you Spec.
gcpursuit
Firstly, I really wouldn't get hung up about certain figures in certain boxes in the USCIS Inventory. There have always been inconsistencies in the data. It could just be data entry errors. I agree they look strange, but I don't think there is a way to resolve the inconsistency. I think the overall number is probably correct - I might suspect some of the monthly numbers.
Secondly, the DHS numbers discussed in the original posts were not comparing "apples to apples".
Jagan is aware of this.
The DHS data quoted in the original post was for primary applicants only, whereas the USCIS Inventory numbers include dependents.
Taking the DHS data for FY2012 as an example:
EB1A ------------- 3,569 -- 21.91%
EB1B ------------- 3,394 -- 20.84%
EB1C ------------- 9,323 -- 57.25%
Primary total –-- 16,286
Spouses --------- 12,555
Children -------- 10,475
Dependent total – 23,030
Grand total ----- 39,316
The dependent ratio has remained fairly constant at about 1.4 dependents per primary approval for many years for EB1.
The DHS data does not split the dependents by the subcategories.
If the dependents are spread proportionally across the sub-categories based on primary approvals then on average, if EB1 received 40,000 approvals, the rough spread would be (if new applications were spread evenly each month)
EB1A -- 9,000 – about 750 per month
EB1B -- 9,000 – about 750 per month
EB1C - 22,000 – about 1,835 per month
The DHS data does not subdivide the data by Country.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Quick question for the forum. I think I know the answer but I'd like to tap the collective wisdom of the members here.
I work in management consulting for a Big 4 company. I have an opportunity come my way from a large investment bank to do essentially the same work but internally (i.e. an internal consultant). How would this affect my GC given the job description requirements?
My PD is Aug 2008 so I'm a little skittish about making drastic moves but this is in that gray area.
Viz - On this topic I think you already know enough. So I will only give you my perspective to think and you make the decision.
Your best bet to get a GC is July - worst is September. So if you wait until then - then post GC you are going to wonder whether you should make a move within or after 6 months.
So now the time horizon of career switch shifts from April i.e., today to sometime Jan-Mar next year. Will the same or similar opportunity come your way then? Is current opportunity eligible for AC21? You decide Viz! But whatever you do - we all wish you the best!
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Nicely said Q. Really on the dot!!!
If I were you viz i would take it unless I'm confident I'll be able to get a similar one whenever I start looking again.
Viz, you have been long enough so I won't say anything more.
Thanks Q and Venkat. My wife and I just had our first child so the prospects of doing the same work but not having to travel is enticing. I figure I'll atleast give it a shot and talk to few immigration lawyers to get their perspective.
Congratulations on your little one Viz. Go ahead with your new offer.
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