EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[qesehmk]

YT great great great work!!! You may want to explain for everybody's benefit whether the data by year represents approvals during that year or total approved demand from that year. (in other words - if 2006 shows 100 ROW EB2 then is 100 all EB2ROW approvals in 2006 with PDs spread across multiple years behind. Or does 100 represent EB2 ROW demand with PDs in 2006 - but they may be approved either same year or in later years!!

Look at this interesting PERM trend and see how EB-ROW demand is getting reduced as years pass on: Attachment 514
BTW, I'm expecting this year INDIA will cross 50K visas ..37k+(EB) & 13k(FB)...will see how it turns out this year..

[YTeleven]

YT great great great work!!! You may want to explain for everybody's benefit whether the data by year represents approvals during that year or total approved demand from that year. (in other words - if 2006 shows 100 ROW EB2 then is 100 all EB2ROW approvals in 2006 with PDs spread across multiple years behind. Or does 100 represent EB2 ROW demand with PDs in 2006 - but they may be approved either same year or in later years!!

Q,

These values are straight from DOL annual reports/data sheets, so they are approved in that FY and not based on PD. Finding the PD based approvals seems difficult and time consuming.

[PD2008AUG25]

04/08/2014: White House Release of Fact Sheet of 04/07/2014 on "Soon-to-be Released" H-4 Spouse Employment Authorization Regulation


I have been hearing about this rule making since 2 years but nothing fruitful has happened. Hope this time it materializes.

Source:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-...ome-and-abroad

http://www.immigration-law.com/XXIV.html

Even if it materializes, it is so limited in scope that it's almost useless. If I remember correctly, it's only for H1Bs who have I-485 pending and have been on H1B for more than 6 years.

[axecapone]

Even if it materializes, it is so limited in scope that it's almost useless. If I remember correctly, it's only for H1Bs who have I-485 pending and have been on H1B for more than 6 years.

I dont think this is related to 485. This is just for people on H1B whether they have filed GC or not. I think it will be limited to only high tech (not sure if it encompasses STEM).

[vishnu]

yes - we dont' know the scope of this new rule, but all the past rules (which never made it to being enacted) only referred to ac21...not about i-485 approval. Just needed an approved i-140, and hence extension of H1 beyond 6 years (but not necessarily the i-485)

[qesehmk]

Q,

These values are straight from DOL annual reports/data sheets, so they are approved in that FY and not based on PD. Finding the PD based approvals seems difficult and time consuming.

Thanks YT. I agree it is tedious. Spec-The-Great always did it for us and spoiled all of us.

[suninphx]

YT- this is a terrific piece of work. Keep it up.

[shekhar_kuruk]

Here is the break up of estimation for India according to YT.
EB1 - 10700
EB2 - 21000
EB3 - 4,200
EB4 - 608
EB5 - 77.
Also from the same document(Thanks YT), allocated visas for EB2 - India for 2011 is 23,997. It will be interesting to see what the actual allocation is for EB2 India this year, but I am willing to bet that it will be more than that.
If anybody is willing to bet, I will take the wager(Beer ofcourse .

Please find the latest version of my document estimating the EB India Visa allocations for FY 2014 here. This is a conservative estimate, personally I feel EB2 India will get more visas than listed in this document. Most of you might not agree to these numbers but I've the key data pointers which are suggesting these numbers and I'll disclose those pointers in future months. At this point I'll open this to everyone for comments & to debate on why these numbers can't be true. These numbers are purely based on past statistics of all EB categories and considering current trends in all the areas of EB categories and how these trends affect the EB2 India visa allocation.
With this estimate EB2-I will get 21k visas in FY14 and there is already 5.5k visas are allocated in FY14 quota for EB2I, hence the remaining 15.5k will clear the existing EB2I backlogs till 1-Apr-2009.
Again, my personal feel is that we even cross this and go to Jun-09, anyways we will know what happens in next 6 months.

[primus]

Some good news... press released yesterday.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-...ome-and-abroad

"These proposed regulations include rules authorizing employment for spouses of certain high-skill workers on H-1B visas, as well as enhancing opportunities for outstanding professors and researchers."

[YTeleven]

Here is the break up of estimation for India according to YT.
EB1 - 10700
EB2 - 21000
EB3 - 4,200
EB4 - 608
EB5 - 77.
Also from the same document(Thanks YT), allocated visas for EB2 - India for 2011 is 23,997. It will be interesting to see what the actual allocation is for EB2 India this year, but I am willing to bet that it will be more than that.
If anybody is willing to bet, I will take the wager(Beer ofcourse .

Yes. That year due to Kazarian effect EB1 consumed only 25k giving EB2 a huge spillover and hence you see 24k for EB2-I. who knows something might similar happens this year too... I'm already seeing EB1 inventory piling up due to slow processing.. if that continues till the end of this year you might see huge spillover from EB1 making your wish comes true.

[Spectator]

Love the presentation YT.

Here's the analysis by CY of PD for published date up to Q1 FY2014.

Attachment 515

Clearly the CY2013 numbers are nowhere near complete. By the end of Q1 FY2014 PERM processing was about half way through April 2013 PDs.

The CY2013 numbers have more than doubled in Q2 FY2014 (another 14.1k) from the previous cumulative total of 13k. Processing had reached part way through August 2013 by the end of Q2 FY2014. Q1 FY2014 certifications for CY2013 were 6.8k. PERM Certifications (for all CY) in Q1 FY2014 were 9,076. In Q2 that nearly doubled to around 17,114 according to the LCR.

Ultimately, I expect CY2013 certifications to be around the same or slightly higher than CY2012 after the audit cases are added sometime in the future. Audit cases from CY2012 continue to be certified.


I can see both points of view in the recent discussion. Some comments:

YT's figures give a good idea of DOL productivity. Clearly, that is also likely to translate to I-140 and I-1485 applications and approvals in the short term.

The figures above show the underlying trend by PD year.

ROW is on a slight upward trend from a low of CY2010 PD.
That's true for China as well, but their low was in CY2009.
India has more than doubled since their low in 2009.

Overall, total PERM receipts are on a very gentle upward trend according to the figures published by DOL.

Ultimately, that will translate to I-140 (and I-485 for ROW) as DOL process them. It may be good times this year for India if the slow PERM processing depresses numbers of ROW receiving I-140 and I-485 approvals in FY2014. Eventually, that will catch up - DOL have already shown signs of speeding up processing.

Unfortunately, it will just translate to an awful next year as the underlying numbers of PERM certifications translate into I-485 approvals.

I looked at premium processing for EB2-ROW cases with an I-485 on Trackitt over the last few years. From Oct 2011 it shows PP cases as 67% of the total, from Oct 2012 as 60% and from Oct 2013 as 66%. I was slightly surprised the % was so high. Of course, it is possible that Trackitt does not accurately reflect the true %, but it is the only data available.

As an average over the last 3 FY, EB2-ROW/M/P have had GC approvals of only around 400 less than the allocation they would have received if only 140k was available to EB. That is something to ponder on.

PS - now that I am able to, I will update the PERM figures in Facts & Data over the next few days. With YT's permission, I will also add a post with both the PERM Certification graphs by FY of Decision FY and by CY of PD, which I will keep updated as DOL publish the quarterly disclosure data.

[Jagan01]

I looked at premium processing for EB2-ROW cases with an I-485 on Trackitt over the last few years. From Oct 2011 it shows PP cases as 67% of the total, from Oct 2012 as 60% and from Oct 2013 as 66%. I was slightly surprised the % was so high. Of course, it is possible that Trackitt does not accurately reflect the true %, but it is the only data available.

As an average over the last 3 FY, EB2-ROW/M/P have had GC approvals of only around 400 less than the allocation they would have received if only 140k was available to EB.

Welcome Back Spec !!!

I have been repeatedly asking this question on the forum about which months PERM certifications will make it to this FY numbers for EB2ROW. Whats your take on it. I had also mentioned the same point that Premium processing is pretty high on trackitt for EB2ROW and hence we should consider all the Apr PERM certifications as potential candidates to take away GC for EB2ROW.

[geevikram]

Love the presentation YT.

Here's the analysis by CY of PD for published date up to Q1 FY2014.

Attachment 515

Clearly the CY2013 numbers are nowhere near complete. By the end of Q1 FY2014 PERM processing was about half way through April 2013 PDs.

The CY2013 numbers have more than doubled in Q2 FY2014 (another 14.1k) from the previous cumulative total of 13k. Processing had reached part way through August 2013 by the end of Q2 FY2014. Q1 FY2014 certifications for CY2013 were 6.8k. PERM Certifications (for all CY) in Q1 FY2014 were 9,076. In Q2 that nearly doubled to around 17,114 according to the LCR.

Ultimately, I expect CY2013 certifications to be around the same or slightly higher than CY2012 after the audit cases are added sometime in the future. Audit cases from CY2012 continue to be certified.


I can see both points of view in the recent discussion. Some comments:

YT's figures give a good idea of DOL productivity. Clearly, that is also likely to translate to I-140 and I-1485 applications and approvals in the short term.

The figures above show the underlying trend by PD year.

ROW is on a slight upward trend from a low of CY2010 PD.
That's true for China as well, but their low was in CY2009.
India has more than doubled since their low in 2009.

Overall, total PERM receipts are on a very gentle upward trend according to the figures published by DOL.

Ultimately, that will translate to I-140 (and I-485 for ROW) as DOL process them. It may be good times this year for India if the slow PERM processing depresses numbers of ROW receiving I-140 and I-485 approvals in FY2014. Eventually, that will catch up - DOL have already shown signs of speeding up processing.

Unfortunately, it will just translate to an awful next year as the underlying numbers of PERM certifications translate into I-485 approvals.

I looked at premium processing for EB2-ROW cases with an I-485 on Trackitt over the last few years. From Oct 2011 it shows PP cases as 67% of the total, from Oct 2012 as 60% and from Oct 2013 as 66%. I was slightly surprised the % was so high. Of course, it is possible that Trackitt does not accurately reflect the true %, but it is the only data available.

As an average over the last 3 FY, EB2-ROW/M/P have had GC approvals of only around 400 less than the allocation they would have received if only 140k was available to EB. That is something to ponder on.

PS - now that I am able to, I will update the PERM figures in Facts & Data over the next few days. With YT's permission, I will also add a post with both the PERM Certification graphs by FY of Decision FY and by CY of PD, which I will keep updated as DOL publish the quarterly disclosure data.

Thanks and welcome back Spec.

[qesehmk]

Welcome back Spec ! Thanks for posting it. I could've posted it on your behalf ... but thought people ought to hear it from the Guru himself!

Love the presentation YT.

Here's the analysis by CY of PD for published date up to Q1 FY2014.

[Silverlining027]

Hello everyone and Namashkar to all Gurus,
I have been silent follower of this forum like many. This forum has helped me to make couple of major professional decision of my carrier which has improved my professional and personal life. Many Many thanks to all Gurus and others. Special Thanks to Q for running this informative blog which provide very realistic information which helped people like make best decision for carrier growth without living in false GC hopes.
Spec,
Thank you for coming back to this forum. we need you around to keep our hope alive.

[YTeleven]

Spec,
Thank you and Welcome back. This forum very much needs your expert comments regularly.

[imdeng]

Welcome back Spec. It is so great to see you around in these parts again. You were sorely missed.

About the % of PP cases in Trackitt - since folks who take the trouble to get on trackitt are the ones who are most "motivated" - and the same set is likely to use PP - it does stand to reason that trackitt will significantly overstate the % of PP.

[Spectator]

About the % of PP cases in Trackitt - since folks who take the trouble to get on trackitt are the ones who are most "motivated" - and the same set is likely to use PP - it does stand to reason that trackitt will significantly overstate the % of PP.

imdeng,

I don't necessarily disagree and it is why I put the rider in my comment about Trackitt data. I prefer to use larger data sets.

At the same time, let's not pretend it is an insignificant number.

ROW are human too. At a time when PERM is taking for ever, they are just as likely to wish to accelerate the process after they receive certification, even if they can file concurrently.

It's perfectly legal for the beneficiary to pay the PP fee.

Rather than wait for 4-6 months for the I-140 approval, then another 3-4 months for the I-485 approval, who wouldn't seriously consider cutting the I-140 approval stage to a potential 15 days. I think that is especially pertinent, now that I-140 processing has slowed so much, as evidenced by the dashboard figures. PP is fast becoming the only way to get the SC to deal with the I-140.

[suninphx]

Spec,

Your posts are like 'cool breeze' in this desert of scattered, insufficient data. As usual thank you so very much for to the point and detailed comments. Hope to see more.

[Kanmani]

Spec,

HAAAAAAAAPY to see you man!

Thank you for the PP data. Have you reached / able to track the new DD location ?

[imdeng]

Oh - I absolutely agree Spec. ROW folks need to do what they can legally do to best further their progress in the process. I would do the same if in that situation. I was only commenting on the line that trackitt might be overstating PP % due to selection bias. I have no doubt that the recent delays would have caused the % of PP to go up - I am arguing that it would still be lower than whats shown by trackitt. Lower, but surely not insignificant, as you say.

imdeng,

I don't necessarily disagree and it is why I put the rider in my comment about Trackitt data. I prefer to use larger data sets.

At the same time, let's not pretend it is an insignificant number.

ROW are human too. At a time when PERM is taking for ever, they are just as likely to wish to accelerate the process after they receive certification, even if they can file concurrently.

It's perfectly legal for the beneficiary to pay the PP fee.

Rather than wait for 4-6 months for the I-140 approval, then another 3-4 months for the I-485 approval, who wouldn't seriously consider cutting the I-140 approval stage to a potential 15 days. I think that is especially pertinent, now that I-140 processing has slowed so much, as evidenced by the dashboard figures. PP is fast becoming the only way to get the SC to deal with the I-140.

[idiotic]

imdeng,

I don't necessarily disagree and it is why I put the rider in my comment about Trackitt data. I prefer to use larger data sets.

At the same time, let's not pretend it is an insignificant number.

ROW are human too. At a time when PERM is taking for ever, they are just as likely to wish to accelerate the process after they receive certification, even if they can file concurrently.

It's perfectly legal for the beneficiary to pay the PP fee.

Rather than wait for 4-6 months for the I-140 approval, then another 3-4 months for the I-485 approval, who wouldn't seriously consider cutting the I-140 approval stage to a potential 15 days. I think that is especially pertinent, now that I-140 processing has slowed so much, as evidenced by the dashboard figures. PP is fast becoming the only way to get the SC to deal with the I-140.

Pleasantly surprised to see you here. You made my day

Wishing to see you around and remove the X cross mark from your picture ..

[Spectator]

PERM Data in FACTS & DATA has been updated to Q1 FY2014 and YT style Charts added.

[Kanmani]

May 2014 Visa Bulletin http://www.travel.state.gov/content/...-may-2014.html

No Change for EB2I

[MATT2012]

Spec,
Nice to see your awesome work and ur continued dedication to provide clarity to the immigrant community. Indeed Happy to see ur post here.

Cheers!!

Matt