EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[qesehmk]

mknop1 - EB2ROW is presenting an interesting situation no doubt. YTD usage is 25% compared to prior year. However there is still 6 more months to go and so we will see how it goes. But even if EB2ROW does provide full force tailwinds that will still not help you get EAD this year. May 2010 is just too far out I think. Sorry I don't have a better news for you.

[mknop1]

qesehmk - Thank you very much for taking the time and effort to answer my questions. Appreciate it very much,

mknop1 - EB2ROW is presenting an interesting situation no doubt. YTD usage is 25% compared to prior year. However there is still 6 more months to go and so we will see how it goes. But even if EB2ROW does provide full force tailwinds that will still not help you get EAD this year. May 2010 is just too far out I think. Sorry I don't have a better news for you.

[qesehmk]

You're very welcome mk.

qesehmk - Thank you very much for taking the time and effort to answer my questions. Appreciate it very much,

[Jagan01]

mknop1 - EB2ROW is presenting an interesting situation no doubt. YTD usage is 25% compared to prior year. However there is still 6 more months to go and so we will see how it goes. But even if EB2ROW does provide full force tailwinds that will still not help you get EAD this year. May 2010 is just too far out I think. Sorry I don't have a better news for you.

Q,
The PERM certifications have spiked. Since Jan 1, 2014 there are 18000 PERM approvals. https://icert.doleta.gov/index.cfm?e...pAdvCertSearch
Do you think EBROW candidates with PERM approvals beyond May will be able to get I-485 approved this year ?

Can Q, Kanmani, Viz, Matt, other Gurus please provide your opinion about what period PERM certifications should we be taking into consideration ?

Below is some data and analysis from my side:
Fiscal Year------------Period Considered-------------PERM Certifications------------EB2ROW Vis
FY2011----------------Apr 10 - Apr 11----------------58k------------------------------34k
FY2012----------------Apr 11 - Jan 12----------------33k------------------------------24k
FY2013----------------Jan 12 - Apr 13----------------66k------------------------------41k

We have 40k PERM Certifications from Apr 13 - Apr 14. I think that would map to 25k considering the above data. That would translate to 9k SOFA. I believe we have already used up EB2I annual quota and also used up the SO from FB to EB2. Considering that EB1C consume all its quota and SO from EB4, we are only left with this 9k.

We have 9k pending inventory prior to Oct 2008. CO said dates might move to Dec 2008 which will be true as he only would have capacity to give GC to people until Oct 2008. I am tensed as Jan 2009 is looking more and more unrealistic as time goes by.

[qesehmk]

Jagan

While compiling this data did you also look at years approved.

so e.g. although 66K were approved in 2013 ... what was the distribution of the PDs? If you haven't looked that way then you may want to do that.

So without verifying the data - I will say this.

Any perm approved after Feb may not be processed fast enough to get through current year quota. So as far as 2014 is concerned you may want to consider PERM data only until Jan or Feb at the most. That's my thought .... what do you think?

Q,
The PERM certifications have spiked. Since Jan 1, 2014 there are 18000 PERM approvals. https://icert.doleta.gov/index.cfm?e...pAdvCertSearch
Do you think EBROW candidates with PERM approvals beyond May will be able to get I-485 approved this year ?

Can Q, Kanmani, Viz, Matt, other Gurus please provide your opinion about what period PERM certifications should we be taking into consideration ?

Below is some data and analysis from my side:
Fiscal Year------------Period Considered-------------PERM Certifications------------EB2ROW Vis
FY2011----------------Apr 10 - Apr 11----------------58k------------------------------34k
FY2012----------------Apr 11 - Jan 12----------------33k------------------------------24k
FY2013----------------Jan 12 - Apr 13----------------66k------------------------------41k

We have 40k PERM Certifications from Apr 13 - Apr 14. I think that would map to 25k considering the above data. That would translate to 9k SOFA. I believe we have already used up EB2I annual quota and also used up the SO from FB to EB2. Considering that EB1C consume all its quota and SO from EB4, we are only left with this 9k.

We have 9k pending inventory prior to Oct 2008. CO said dates might move to Dec 2008 which will be true as he only would have capacity to give GC to people until Oct 2008. I am tensed as Jan 2009 is looking more and more unrealistic as time goes by.

[Jagan01]

Jagan

While compiling this data did you also look at years approved.

so e.g. although 66K were approved in 2013 ... what was the distribution of the PDs? If you haven't looked that way then you may want to do that.

So without verifying the data - I will say this.

Any perm approved after Feb may not be processed fast enough to get through current year quota. So as far as 2014 is concerned you may want to consider PERM data only until Jan or Feb at the most. That's my thought .... what do you think?

I did consider the years approved and have also listed them. Apr 10 means Apr 2010. I have noticed on trackitt that the people getting I-485 approved in Mar 2014 have had their I-140 approved in (Feb/Mar 2014). Most of the are premium processing and their PERM approval was sometime in Dec 2013 to Jan 2014. This makes me think that people getting I-485 in July 2014 would be those who have their PERM approved in Apr 2014.

Approval dates based on the above theory
PERM-----I-140-------I485
Dec 13----Feb 14-----Mar 14
Feb 14----Apr 14-----May 14
Apr 14----June 14-----Jul 14

PS: I am not considering the PDs as they do not bear any significance because EB2ROW is current. PERM approval dates do matter and they are shown above.

[Kanmani]

Jagan,

I do agree with Q, except taking Feb slab, I consider up to march. I think concurrent filed straight forward cases pass through within 6 months of perm approval.

I recommend you to consider only Regular I140 cases. Did you notice the I-140 backlog ?

[qesehmk]

Jagan - you are right there when you want to consider future approvals. But if you were to consider prior year demand then PD is better because that gives better idea of demand variation from one year to next (i mean raw annual demand).

This is a significant problem with PERM data that it is not homogenous. It represents multiple years of PDs and creates difficulties to analyze annual demand of backlogged countries.

Anyway ... I think it will be a good idea to wait a while and watch if this spikes EB2ROW approvals.

I am not considering the PDs as they do not bear any significance because EB2ROW is current. PERM approval dates do matter and they are shown above.

[redwood]

Jagan,

The increase in speed of PERM is a BIG concern but I would raise alarm when USCIS starts increasing their pace of I-140 approvals. Look at the below link and download the csv file.

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=5&charttype=1

You will note that the I-140 approvals for 2013 were close to 100K. (You will need to make some assumptions, since Eb2row was U for 3 months in 2012)

Aug 13 - Jan 14 I-140 approvals = 27K (46% annual drop)

Lets assume that USCIS does 43K more approvals(60% increase) over the next 6 months i.e. (27K + 43K) 70K I-140 approved till Jul 14, then that is a drop of 30% in I-140 approvals.

If we club EB1 and EB2 together(80K approvals in 2013), that is a approval rate of 80K * 70% = 56K for 2014.

I did consider the years approved and have also listed them. Apr 10 means Apr 2010. I have noticed on trackitt that the people getting I-485 approved in Mar 2014 have had their I-140 approved in (Feb/Mar 2014). Most of the are premium processing and their PERM approval was sometime in Dec 2013 to Jan 2014. This makes me think that people getting I-485 in July 2014 would be those who have their PERM approved in Apr 2014.

Approval dates based on the above theory
PERM-----I-140-------I485
Dec 13----Feb 14-----Mar 14
Feb 14----Apr 14-----May 14
Apr 14----June 14-----Jul 14

PS: I am not considering the PDs as they do not bear any significance because EB2ROW is current. PERM approval dates do matter and they are shown above.

[YTeleven]

Please find the latest version of my document estimating the EB India Visa allocations for FY 2014 here. This is a conservative estimate, personally I feel EB2 India will get more visas than listed in this document. Most of you might not agree to these numbers but I've the key data pointers which are suggesting these numbers and I'll disclose those pointers in future months. At this point I'll open this to everyone for comments & to debate on why these numbers can't be true. These numbers are purely based on past statistics of all EB categories and considering current trends in all the areas of EB categories and how these trends affect the EB2 India visa allocation.
With this estimate EB2-I will get 21k visas in FY14 and there is already 5.5k visas are allocated in FY14 quota for EB2I, hence the remaining 15.5k will clear the existing EB2I backlogs till 1-Apr-2009.
Again, my personal feel is that we even cross this and go to Jun-09, anyways we will know what happens in next 6 months.

[Kanmani]

YT,

I appreciate your effort. EB3 share of allocation is 42900 out of 150,000, why do you think DoS might again repeat wasting their precious 900?

My opinion is that Apr 2009 is on the realistic side, June 09 to sept 09 is on the optimistic side.

[YTeleven]

Kanmani,

Thats a good catch. But after verifying the ratio of EB3 share to total EB for last 5 years, the correct projected value should be even lesser than 42k, it should be around 41k.
This is one important characteristic of the EB3 category, EB3 never got its full share of 28.6% in the past years and it may get max 41k this year. The last 2 years' % was around 27%.
I'll change this value to 41k in the next version of my document. I don't see this as a wastage of visas, instead we see these visas allocated to EB2 category in particular EB2-I as spillover.
It is easy to allocate leftover visas to EB2-I instead of wasting those in CP allocations specifically during last few days of financial year to meet the processing targets.

YT,

I appreciate your effort. EB3 share of allocation is 42900 out of 150,000, why do you think DoS might again repeat wasting their precious 900?

My opinion is that Apr 2009 is on the realistic side, June 09 to sept 09 is on the optimistic side.

[Kanmani]

Kanmani,

Thats a good catch. But after verifying the ratio of EB3 share to total EB for last 5 years, the correct projected value should be even lesser than 42k, it should be around 41k.
This is one important characteristic of the EB3 category, EB3 never got its full share of 28.6% in the past years and it may get max 41k this year. The last 2 years' % was around 27%.
I'll change this value to 41k in the next version of my document. I don't see this as a wastage of visas, instead we see these visas allocated to EB2 category in particular EB2-I as spillover.
It is easy to allocate leftover visas to EB2-I instead of wasting those in CP allocations specifically during last few days of financial year to meet the processing targets.

YT,

You are absolutely correct by all means, But I cannot agree with your view as we cannot take those visas as granted and divert them to EB2 during our calculations. EB3 is not under used category and the wastage ( in view of Eb3 it is wastage only) cannot be considered as excess.

Moreover not all the remaining visas are availed by EB2. For example in the year 2011, the total EB usage was 139,302 out of 140,000. Approximately 700 visas were redirected to FB'2012 while eb3 usage was 37,425 out of 40,040.
Similarly in 2012, 300 visas were redirected to FB'2013.

[YTeleven]

YT,

You are absolutely correct by all means, But I cannot agree with your view as we cannot take those visas as granted and divert them to EB2 during our calculations. EB3 is not under used category and the wastage ( in view of Eb3 it is wastage only) cannot be considered as excess.

Moreover not all the remaining visas are availed by EB2. For example in the year 2011, the total EB usage was 139,302 out of 140,000. Approximately 700 visas were redirected to FB'2012 while eb3 usage was 37,425 out of 40,040.
Similarly in 2012, 300 visas were redirected to FB'2013.

Kanmani,

I understand what you are saying. I've taken your points.
My goal in this document is to find the India numbers thru statistics(not regular calculations), considering the current trends so that when I compare these values with the actual values when they get released in Dec'14 should be in 2% tolerance levels.

[Jagan01]

Jagan,

The increase in speed of PERM is a BIG concern but I would raise alarm when USCIS starts increasing their pace of I-140 approvals. Look at the below link and download the csv file.

Jagan,

I do agree with Q, except taking Feb slab, I consider up to march. I think concurrent filed straight forward cases pass through within 6 months of perm approval.

I recommend you to consider only Regular I140 cases. Did you notice the I-140 backlog ?

Jagan - you are right there when you want to consider future approvals. But if you were to consider prior year demand then PD is better because that gives better idea of demand variation from one year to next (i mean raw annual demand).

This is a significant problem with PERM data that it is not homogenous. It represents multiple years of PDs and creates difficulties to analyze annual demand of backlogged countries.

Anyway ... I think it will be a good idea to wait a while and watch if this spikes EB2ROW approvals.

Q, Kanmani, redwood,

I do see that you all are not considering the fact that I-140 can be filed under premium processing. What do you think about candidates that would go for premium processing after PERM is approved. Do you think they can get I-485 approved if they get PERM approved on Apr 30, 2014 ? I think they can.

[Jagan01]

Jagan,

The increase in speed of PERM is a BIG concern but I would raise alarm when USCIS starts increasing their pace of I-140 approvals. Look at the below link and download the csv file.

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=5&charttype=1

You will note that the I-140 approvals for 2013 were close to 100K. (You will need to make some assumptions, since Eb2row was U for 3 months in 2012)

Aug 13 - Jan 14 I-140 approvals = 27K (46% annual drop)

Lets assume that USCIS does 43K more approvals(60% increase) over the next 6 months i.e. (27K + 43K) 70K I-140 approved till Jul 14, then that is a drop of 30% in I-140 approvals.

If we club EB1 and EB2 together(80K approvals in 2013), that is a approval rate of 80K * 70% = 56K for 2014.

redwood,

I had already done a detailed analysis of the I-140 approvals some time last week. I did know that the I-140 approvals have gone down and the applications also have gone down. However, rise in PERM certifications can show a rise in I-140 approvals. We only have data up until Jan 14 for I-140 and we might see an increase in Apr 14 as PERM certifications have gone up in the period of Jan - Apr 14. Let us not assume that all EB2ROW candidates file regular processing.

[qesehmk]

I do see that you all are not considering the fact that I-140 can be filed under premium processing. What do you think about candidates that would go for premium processing after PERM is approved. Do you think they can get I-485 approved if they get PERM approved on Apr 30, 2014 ? I think they can.

Jagan - indeed - for most cases - the 140+485 processing can vary from 4-9 months when dates are current. So we will have to keep an eye on 140 approvals for possible spike.

[redwood]

Great Jagan. Lets assume that DOL will continue at its 7K per month for the whole year and all of these guys I-140 is approved a couple of months later(March PERM approvals become June I-140 approvals). Even then there is a 25% drop in approvals. Big assumption is USCIS doesn't go into the current I-140 backlog removal process. I am sure you will do your own quick analysis to verify this and smart enough to ask where are you getting EB2NIW and EB1 filings from.

Here is how I get it

1. Overlay the monthly PERM applications on your I-140 sheet you got from the link. http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=5&charttype=1
2. Subtract the monthly perm applications number from I-140 receipts 2 months later. For eg. Sep I-140 receipts minus July PERM approvals.
3. You will see a nice average pattern of 2.4K EB2NIW/EB1 filings for the last 12 months or 2.5K over the last 6 months.

Look forward to seeing your analysis.

redwood,

I had already done a detailed analysis of the I-140 approvals some time last week. I did know that the I-140 approvals have gone down and the applications also have gone down. However, rise in PERM certifications can show a rise in I-140 approvals. We only have data up until Jan 14 for I-140 and we might see an increase in Apr 14 as PERM certifications have gone up in the period of Jan - Apr 14. Let us not assume that all EB2ROW candidates file regular processing.

[skpanda]

I do not think so..

Gurus.. can you please confirm that Consular Processing numbers are included in Demand Data? I always thought DOS had no access to that information.

skpanda: the demand data for EB2I of around 29,000 till April 2010 comprises of consular processing approved petitions AND the I-485s at USCIS centers - no need to double count.

[qesehmk]

DOS has visibility only to the cases sent to counselor posts.

There is huge backlog at NVC that is not sent to DOS for a long time.

I do not think so..

Gurus.. can you please confirm that Consular Processing numbers are included in Demand Data? I always thought DOS had no access to that information.

[YTeleven]

Since you are analysing the I-485 & I-140 processing data, thought of sharing this data which is compared to last 2 years averages.
First 2 columns are yearly values and last 3 columns are monthly averages.
From the I-485 processing data I could say that:
1) Preadjudicated files are at its lowest ever and they are all just EB2-India and EB3-India I-485 applications.
2) There is more room for preadjudicated files compare to last 2 years processing data..this shows more EB3-ROW movements in future.
3) Since begining of FY2014 there were 31k of I-485s got added to pending files..this shows that the processing is slow.
4) Inspite of advancing the EB3-ROW there is NOT much increase in New Receipts...more forward movement of EB3-ROW is needed.
5) Comparing the average values of Completed & New Receipts with past 2 years values..it shows NO significant demand from EB1, EB2-ROW or EB3-ROW.
6) Completed value is less than new receipts value and hence pending value is high
From the I-140 processing data I could say that:
1) Completed & New Receipt values are very less compared to previous years values. This shows NOT much demand due to last year slow PERM data.
2) Pending files are at its highest values and hence the processing is slow.

Attachment 513

[skpanda]

04/08/2014: White House Release of Fact Sheet of 04/07/2014 on "Soon-to-be Released" H-4 Spouse Employment Authorization Regulation


I have been hearing about this rule making since 2 years but nothing fruitful has happened. Hope this time it materializes.

Source:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-...ome-and-abroad

http://www.immigration-law.com/XXIV.html

[Kanmani]

Q, Kanmani, redwood,

I do see that you all are not considering the fact that I-140 can be filed under premium processing. What do you think about candidates that would go for premium processing after PERM is approved. Do you think they can get I-485 approved if they get PERM approved on Apr 30, 2014 ? I think they can.

Jagan,

Its 50-50 probability, why because not all the companies pay for premium processing, not all the law firms have direct contact with the applicant, not all the RoW applicants go for premium by self paying.

[YTeleven]

Jagan,

Its 50-50 probability, why because not all the companies pay for premium processing, not all the law firms have direct contact with the applicant, not all the RoW applicants go for premium by self paying.

Also, it needs to go thru a business justification process. Why would a ROW candidate needs premium processing when their category is current and can be filed 485 concurrently. No legitimate business will allow extra spending on wastage.

[YTeleven]

Look at this interesting PERM trend and see how EB-ROW demand is getting reduced as years pass on: Attachment 514
BTW, I'm expecting this year INDIA will cross 50K visas ..37k+(EB) & 13k(FB)...will see how it turns out this year..