EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[Immigo]

Just revisited the I-485 inventory from January (http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...y-2014-Jan.pdf). The EB1 India inventory for October and November, 2013 shows 930 and 1036. If this (scary) trend continues, I will be very pessimistic about spillovers to EB2 India in the future.

[axecapone]

Just revisited the I-485 inventory from January (http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...y-2014-Jan.pdf). The EB1 India inventory for October and November, 2013 shows 930 and 1036. If this (scary) trend continues, I will be very pessimistic about spillovers to EB2 India in the future.

About EB1 India, does anyone know what the reason is for a whopping 14-15 fold increase from 2012 to 2013 in the number of EB1 cases?

[Kanmani]

About EB1 India, does anyone know what the reason is for a whopping 14-15 fold increase from 2012 to 2013 in the number of EB1 cases?

Are you familiar with the Kazarian case ? That case made the EB1 researchers to prove 2 step evaluation of their papers. Attorneys and applicants were not familiar with the new process . The K- ruling made a lot of denials in 2011 . It picked up in 2013.

[qesehmk]

Can you please site the actual numbers where you see 14-15 fold increase. I don't see it.

About EB1 India, does anyone know what the reason is for a whopping 14-15 fold increase from 2012 to 2013 in the number of EB1 cases?

[axecapone]

Can you please site the actual numbers where you see 14-15 fold increase. I don't see it.

May be I phrased it incorrectly. Basically I was looking at the 485 inventory data. 2012 has a total of 314 for under 1st preference while 2013 has 4492. I was trying to understand this difference

[Immigo]

Are you familiar with the Kazarian case ? That case made the EB1 researchers to prove 2 step evaluation of their papers. Attorneys and applicants were not familiar with the new process . The K- ruling made a lot of denials in 2011 . It picked up in 2013.

Kazarian was for EB1-A/B. The numbers in EB1 India inventory for October and November, 2013 (showing about 1k per month) would likely be due to EB1C. I really hope USCIS takes notice and increases the scrutiny for EB1C (similar to the L1 rejections that are now happening).

[qesehmk]

May be I phrased it incorrectly. Basically I was looking at the 485 inventory data. 2012 has a total of 314 for under 1st preference while 2013 has 4492. I was trying to understand this difference

I got it now. Thank you.

So there are two things here. The difference you see in the current inventory is simply because of the fact of FIFO (first in first out) processing of current categories. Current categories always will have significant backlog for current year and almost none for prior year. EB1 as a whole is current and so it exhibits the same behavior.

But the second thing to consider is - whether EB1 had different levels of overall demand for 2012 vs 2013? Or at least for EB1-India was there such a thing. I didn't go into those details if indeed there was a difference in overall demand. But just to make sure you understand Kanmani's answer above - she answered the second thing that I mentioned here.

[Jagan01]

I got it now. Thank you.

So there are two things here. The difference you see in the current inventory is simply because of the fact of FIFO (first in first out) processing of current categories. Current categories always will have significant backlog for current year and almost none for prior year. EB1 as a whole is current and so it exhibits the same behavior.

But the second thing to consider is - whether EB1 had different levels of overall demand for 2012 vs 2013? Or at least for EB1-India was there such a thing. I didn't go into those details if indeed there was a difference in overall demand. But just to make sure you understand Kanmani's answer above - she answered the second thing that I mentioned here.

It is important to note that you are seeing an increase in the "Pending" inventory. It is not necessary that the demand is increasing. If the USCIS is not approving petitions then the queue will build up and hence the "Pending" number will increase.

Can someone please tell me when exactly does a petition start showing up as pending in inventory for EB1 candidates ?
1. EB1 candidates usually file I-140 and I-485 together.
2. DO these candidates start reflecting in the pending inventory as soon as they file applications for I-140 and I-485 ?
OR
3. Do these candidates start reflecting in the pending inventory once their I-140 is approved?

[Kanmani]

It is important to note that you are seeing an increase in the "Pending" inventory. It is not necessary that the demand is increasing. If the USCIS is not approving petitions then the queue will build up and hence the "Pending" number will increase.

Can someone please tell me when exactly does a petition start showing up as pending in inventory for EB1 candidates ?
1. EB1 candidates usually file I-140 and I-485 together.
2. DO these candidates start reflecting in the pending inventory as soon as they file applications for I-140 and I-485 ?
OR
3. Do these candidates start reflecting in the pending inventory once their I-140 is approved?

"In instances where the green card application and the petition for an alien worker are filed concurrently, and the petition has not yet been adjudicated – meaning country of chargeability, preference, and priority date are as yet unknown – the green card application does not appear in the inventory. This may include newly-filed cases where both the green card application and the petition are within target cycle-times. However, a newly-filed green card application based on an approved petition will appear in the inventory if it was filed prior to the posting of the latest inventory report."

Page 5 of http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...t-response.pdf

Thanks Spectator!

[Jagan01]

"In instances where the green card application and the petition for an alien worker are filed concurrently, and the petition has not yet been adjudicated – meaning country of chargeability, preference, and priority date are as yet unknown – the green card application does not appear in the inventory. This may include newly-filed cases where both the green card application and the petition are within target cycle-times. However, a newly-filed green card application based on an approved petition will appear in the inventory if it was filed prior to the posting of the latest inventory report."

Page 5 of http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...t-response.pdf

Thanks Spectator!

Thanks Kanmani,

This makes it clear that the increase in pending EB1C is not bcos of processing delays. Applicants would show up in pending inventory only after I-140 gets approved. Can there be delays after I-140 approval which might be causing delays in giving out GC and hence the pending inventory increase ?

[gcpursuit]

Thanks Kanmani,

This makes it clear that the increase in pending EB1C is not bcos of processing delays. Applicants would show up in pending inventory only after I-140 gets approved. Can there be delays after I-140 approval which might be causing delays in giving out GC and hence the pending inventory increase ?

If this is the case, how are there 1036 and 260 applications in November and December 2013 in the latest inventory (EB1 India )? Eb1C does not allow premium processing and I am assuming I-140 adjudication takes more than two months. It doesn't make sense since they are listed by PD. Missing something here?

I dont know if this is the correct way to look at it. The way I read inventory is how the demand has been in prior two months before the inventory date since it is more likely to be untouched by uscis. Comparing past inventories to the recent one, it does show an increase in the filings. Correct me if I am wrong.

[Jagan01]

If this is the case, how are there 1036 and 260 applications in November and December 2013 in the latest inventory (EB1 India )? Eb1C does not allow premium processing and I am assuming I-140 adjudication takes more than two months. It doesn't make sense since they are listed by PD. Missing something here?

I dont know if this is the correct way to look at it. The way I read inventory is how the demand has been in prior two months before the inventory date since it is more likely to be untouched by uscis. Comparing past inventories to the recent one, it does show an increase in the filings. Correct me if I am wrong.

Not everyone goes for concurrent filing. Just did a trackitt query and found that from Oct 2011 till today there are 494 concurrent and 216 non-concurrent applications for EB1C India candidates.
So 1/3rd applicants are non-concurrent.

I do believe that most of Oct,Nov,Dec pending numbers that show up in Jan 2014 inventory are non-concurrent filers.

Also EB1A and EB1B can file under PP for I-140 and their I-485 will show up as pending inventory if I140 filed under PP for Nov / Dec. There might be an increase in EB1A and EB1B as well.

[gcpursuit]

Not everyone goes for concurrent filing. Just did a trackitt query and found that from Oct 2011 till today there are 494 concurrent and 216 non-concurrent applications for EB1C India candidates.
So 1/3rd applicants are non-concurrent.

I do believe that most of Oct,Nov,Dec pending numbers that show up in Jan 2014 inventory are non-concurrent filers.

Also EB1A and EB1B can file under PP for I-140 and their I-485 will show up as pending inventory if I140 filed under PP for Nov / Dec. There might be an increase in EB1A and EB1B as well.

So EB1C is completely out of the picture in those Oct - Dec numbers?? That scares me. Do you know how many Eb1 A / B India get approved in a typical year. I was assuming that Eb1C was the major chunk in EB1 India.

[vizcard]

So EB1C is completely out of the picture in those Oct - Dec numbers?? That scares me. Do you know how many Eb1 A / B India get approved in a typical year. I was assuming that Eb1C was the major chunk in EB1 India.

it usually is

[qesehmk]

Do you know how many Eb1 A / B India get approved in a typical year. I was assuming that Eb1C was the major chunk in EB1 India.

Indeed EB1C is the major chunk of EB1 India. Prior to EB1C frenzy (i.e. approx 5-6 years back) EB1-India as a whole hardly consumed 2-3K - if that. So we can safely say that EB1A/B India is less than 3K ... more likely 1.5K.

Overall EB1 India generally comes in at 9-11K per year. In a bad year they will come in at 6-7K e.g. when lots of EB1C denials are happening.

[Jagan01]

Indeed EB1C is the major chunk of EB1 India. Prior to EB1C frenzy (i.e. approx 5-6 years back) EB1-India as a whole hardly consumed 2-3K - if that. So we can safely say that EB1A/B India is less than 3K ... more likely 1.5K.

Overall EB1 India generally comes in at 9-11K per year. In a bad year they will come in at 6-7K e.g. when lots of EB1C denials are happening.

Q, viz,
Here is the puzzle.
gcpursuit pointed out that there were pending numbers in Nov and Dec 2013 in the published Jan 2014 inventory. Where do you think these numbers are coming from. Following are the possible candidates
1. EB1C non-concurrent filers
2. EB1C concurrent filers
3. EB1A EB1B

Let us just consider the month of Nov as there are approximately 1000 pending applications.

Q,
Here are the numbers from dhs website.
FY2008 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12
EB1A -- 3,261 3442 4309 2131 3569
EB1B -- 4,274 3432 3990 2602 3394

FY2011 was an exception becos of Kazarian. So considering the other data points, EB1A and EB1B each have approx usage of 3.5k to 4k annually. This would translate to a combined usage of approx 7.5k per year OR 625 per month. I agree with Q that the number of applications from EB1A and EB1B India would be a fraction of this and hence might only be around 3k annually.

I am not saying that the 1k pending for Nov 2013 are all EB1a or EB1B. I would appreciate if someone can throw in some light. Per Kanmani's document, it is clear that numbers show up in I-485 pending inventory only after they are adjudicated. I-140 applications for EB1C are taking much longer these days and the numbers under Nov 2013 would mean that the I-140 was filed in Nov 2013.

After considering the above facts, I feel that the 1000 pending applications for Nov 2013 under EB1I are coming from some of the lucky EB1C that got I-140 approved within 2 months and some are coming from Eb1A and EB1B.

[gcpursuit]

Jagan,

Considering that EB1 A/B India usage is in the 2k to 3k range, the major portion of the 1k number in Nov 2013 has to be EB1C. If the numbers do not consider those I-140 with regular processing times, then the demand is going to a lot more. Are we looking at a very high rate of EB1C filings? Or are we just missing something here? I wish that 1k is the overall demand for EB1-I.
Just extrapolating the 1k figure for one year gives EB1- I demand of 12k which is high when compared to last year's inventory.

Update : I ran a query in trackitt to see if there have been any EB1C I-140 approvals in Nov and Dec 2013 for PDs Nov and Dec, the result was 0. I know trackitt data isnt accurate but I would atleast expect one or two of those lucky cases to show up.

[civilengineer]

What is the worst case scenario?
My PD is June 19, 2008 and I am yet to file for EAD. I was hoping to get a chance this year after missing by 5 days last year, and it seemed likely till the last inventory.
What is the worst case scenario number for EB-1 from India?
How many EB-1 from India should be filed for me to not get chance this year, too? 5000 above normal, 10000 above?
Does it look like dates may not cross June 2008 right now? Thanks in advance.

[qesehmk]

civilengineer - relax. As long as your case doesn't have any issues - You should get your GC this year before Sep 30. 99.99% chance if you ask me! Good luck.

Does it look like dates may not cross June 2008 right now?

[helooo]

What is the worst case scenario?
My PD is June 19, 2008 and I am yet to file for EAD. I was hoping to get a chance this year after missing by 5 days last year, and it seemed likely till the last inventory.
What is the worst case scenario number for EB-1 from India?
How many EB-1 from India should be filed for me to not get chance this year, too? 5000 above normal, 10000 above?
Does it look like dates may not cross June 2008 right now? Thanks in advance.

I am also first time filer and my PD is June 16,2008.Hope this year will bring our GC's.

[ROCK72]

Hello Gurus,

Are there any predictions for how far EB3 India dates will end up in Q4 FY2014?

Thanks!

[sreddy]

Texas service center sent RFEs last year, I think most of those RFE cases got GC last August/September. Any body remember what time was that?

May bulletin is expected in about 10 days. 60 days from that point before Q4 bulletin releases, not seeing any indication of trends. Am I missing something?

[qesehmk]

Now that 6 months have gone by in current USCIS year, trackitt data is now somewhat reliable. So we have observed some trackitt trends. Pl see header.

Basically we think that EB1-C India will consume quite a bit more compared to last year, whereas EB2ROW is on way to record low approvals (if current trend continues). This second point could be a very good news for EB2I.

Lastly we also think that EB3ROW consumption has accelerated compared to prior year by 25% and so EB3I shouldn't expect any SOFAD like prior year.

[qesehmk]

Heartfelt wishes to everybody!

[sam96_77]

Texas service center sent RFEs last year, I think most of those RFE cases got GC last August/September. Any body remember what time was that?

May bulletin is expected in about 10 days. 60 days from that point before Q4 bulletin releases, not seeing any indication of trends. Am I missing something?

Late June!! I think most of them came around last week of June.