EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[amulchandra]

Looking at eb3 row inventory, what you gurus here think.
Will eb3 india see some light this year?
thanks
Amul

[drop2ocean]

Hi, I currently have a PD EB2I - June 2010.

what are the key things to look for in case of a change in employer and restarting the whole process, to keep this PD.

Does the new process needs to consider previous job advertisements, years of experience stated in previous filing etc ?

Appreciate your response.

[Kanmani]

Teddy, is it you on Eb2-Eb3 thread in trackitt?

[gcpursuit]

Gurus,

With the latest inventory data, is there any change in the predictions?

[tatikonda]

Gurus,

Quick Question !! one of my friend got GC approved today his PD Date is 2006, (he is in EB2-I). I was wondering his visa number is from FY 2013 Quota or FY-2014 Quota. I guess it will be from previous year quota. please advise.

[YTeleven]

Gurus,

Quick Question !! one of my friend got GC approved today his PD Date is 2006, (he is in EB2-I). I was wondering his visa number is from FY 2013 Quota or FY-2014 Quota. I guess it will be from previous year quota. please advise.

I suspect it could be from FY2014. It depends on when is he applied his I-485 or porting request.
There was already 7k visas allocated to the EB2 & EB3 India together from FY2014 quota.
Please look at this attachment: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/attach...0&d=1392156577

[tatikonda]

I suspect it could be from FY2014. It depends on when is he applied his I-485 or porting request.
There was already 7k visas allocated to the EB2 & EB3 India together from FY2014 quota.
Please look at this attachment: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/attach...0&d=1392156577

I read some where (maybe in this forum) that visa number gets allocated when they issue a RFE on 485.
So if a RFE was issued earlier than Oct 1st 2013. it should be from FY2013 Quota ? Correct ??
I am not sure about when RFE was issued, I will find it out and update forum.
btw he is porting from EB3-Eb2.

[vizcard]

I read some where (maybe in this forum) that visa number gets allocated when they issue a RFE on 485.
So if a RFE was issued earlier than Oct 1st 2013. it should be from FY2013 Quota ? Correct ??
I am not sure about when RFE was issued, I will find it out and update forum.
btw he is porting from EB3-Eb2.

I don't believe that's true. The USCIS does the RFE process and only when approved "requests" the DOS to assign a visa. If this was inadvertently done and the GC was given without an approved I485, there could be issues.

[YTeleven]

I read some where (maybe in this forum) that visa number gets allocated when they issue a RFE on 485.
So if a RFE was issued earlier than Oct 1st 2013. it should be from FY2013 Quota ? Correct ??
I am not sure about when RFE was issued, I will find it out and update forum.
btw he is porting from EB3-Eb2.

The above calculations was made based on the October'13 Inventory updated on 01Oct2013 and the October13DD updated on 07Oct2013. This year they have allocated these visas between 01-Oct-2013 & 07-Oct-2013 under FY2014 quota and they continued processing the cases till Nov'13 and in some cases like your freinds till now. Please see the quote mentioned in the Oct13 DD:
---------
The FY 2013 Employment annual limits were reached prior to the end of September, and no further allocation
of numbers was possible after that time. Offices continued to process Employment cases, submitted them in
the normal manner, and such cases were then held in the Visa Office’s “Pending Demand” file. All eligible
cases were then allocated Employment-based numbers on October 1, 2013, under the FY 2014 annual limits.
----------

[tatikonda]

I don't believe that's true. The USCIS does the RFE process and only when approved "requests" the DOS to assign a visa. If this was inadvertently done and the GC was given without an approved I485, there could be issues.

Viz, I appreciate your response. Please forgive my ignorance.
I see few GC approvals in Jan/Feb 2014, who's PD is not current. How can they get GC if they are not current, that means USCIS might have requested their VISA prior to their approval ?

[vizcard]

Viz, I appreciate your response. Please forgive my ignorance.
I see few GC approvals in Jan/Feb 2014, who's PD is not current. How can they get GC if they are not current, that means USCIS might have requested their VISA prior to their approval ?

They could be cross-chargeability or they updated it late or DOS is making exceptions or maybe you are correct. I can't argue against evidence

[Jagan01]

They could be cross-chargeability or they updated it late or DOS is making exceptions or maybe you are correct. I can't argue against evidence

Just ran a query on Trackitt. Found 27 applicants that are EB2I and got their approval between Dec 2013 and Feb 2014. These 27 candidates have PDs starting from Jan 2005. Hence it is possible to get GC when dates are not current.
Dec 2013 - 18 approvals
Jan 2014 - 5 approvals
Feb 2014 - 4 approvals

According to me the numbers were assigned when the dates were current and then approvals came in later. I firmly believe that the annual EB2I quota (~3000) is already used up for FY2014. Below are some numbers of inventory prior to Jan 2009 and after Jan 2004.

Oct 2013 inventory --> EB2I (13375) : EB3I(29879)
Jan 2013 inventory --> EB2I (12181 ) : EB3I(27998)

Decrease in EB2I --> 1194
Porting from EB3I to EB2I --> 1881

Total consumed from EB2I --> 3075

We will see some approvals trickle in as we approach Aug 2014 but these would be very very few.

[incredible]

Gurus
Please move this question to an appropriate Thread. I have a quick question around the Lock box address for I765 and I131 forms. When I see instructions for filing I765 and I131 forms, I see the address to be sent is different (for people living in North Carolina).
The I765 need to be sent to Pheonix Lock Box facility where as I131 seems to be sent to Dallas Lockbox (that is based on the I485 receipt which starts with LIN).

Do we have to send the document to different addresses ? or Shall I send both to Pheonix address ?

[redwood]

I firmly believe that the annual EB2I quota (~3000) is already used up for FY2014..

Jagan

I have a honest question. Why would the USCIS not afford this privilege (of giving annual quota in Oct itself) to EB2C or EB3I ? Is the answer the obvious - spillover.

[Jagan01]

Jagan

I have a honest question. Why would the USCIS not afford this privilege (of giving annual quota in Oct itself) to EB2C or EB3I ? Is the answer the obvious - spillover.

1. EB2I every time will get spillover. Hence calculation errors don't matter much as EB2I will anyways get much more than 3000.
2. CO would like to be considered as a person who's prediction are correct. For example, He moved dates to June 2008
2.a - because of giving away 3k visas there are only ~3000 pending before June 2008
2.b - If he did not give away those 3k visas then there would have been ~6000 pending before June 2008

I think 2.a makes him look much better than 2.b

Remember that CO also has to ensure no wastage. Hence he needs to move dates far enough to ensure no wastage but also live up to expectations of being close enough to not have too many pending before the date he moves to.

[Jagan01]

1. EB2I every time will get spillover. Hence calculation errors don't matter much as EB2I will anyways get much more than 3000.
2. CO would like to be considered as a person who's prediction are correct. For example, He moved dates to June 2008
2.a - because of giving away 3k visas there are only ~3000 pending before June 2008
2.b - If he did not give away those 3k visas then there would have been ~6000 pending before June 2008

I think 2.a makes him look much better than 2.b

Remember that CO also has to ensure no wastage. Hence he needs to move dates far enough to ensure no wastage but also live up to expectations of being close enough to not have too many pending before the date he moves to.

I personally feel that CO has adopted a good strategy.
1. Calculate Supply available in Aug. Lets call it X.
2. Calculate the month until which there is a demand of X pending. Lets call it M.
3. Add one month and move dates to M+1. This will ensure no wastage.
4. Based on porting, he may or may not have demand left at the beginning of next FY.
- If cumulative demand left in Oct prior to M+1 is > 3000 then give out 3k annual quota.
- If cumulative demand left in Oct prior to M+1 is < 3000 (may be 2000) then everyone who was current will get visas. So consume 2k of the annual 3k.

[qesehmk]

Friends - Header updated.


Basically there are 3 things we looked at:
1. PERM Data for 2014 Q1
2. USCIS 485 Data for 2014 Q1
3. USCIS Performance Data.


#1 & #3 are confirming slowdown in not just PERMs but also in 140 and 485 processing. The question is how does it help or hurt. Clearly for people who are backlogged and have already filed 485 this is good because then that means more visas for them and better likelihood of getting through to Approval.


#2 interestingly doesn't really have much interesting information. mid year 485 data is always tricky because you don't know the flow rate of how many came in and how many approved vs denied etc .. many times applications come and get approved without ever hitting 485 inventory. That's why I generally don't like this report mid year. There is not much there that influenced my mind one way or other.


Good luck with your GC applications!

[redwood]

Friends - Header updated.


Basically there are 3 things we looked at:
1. PERM Data for 2014 Q1
2. USCIS 485 Data for 2014 Q1
3. USCIS Performance Data.


#1 & #3 are confirming slowdown in not just PERMs but also in 140 and 485 processing. The question is how does it help or hurt. Clearly for people who are backlogged and have already filed 485 this is good because then that means more visas for them and better likelihood of getting through to Approval.


#2 interestingly doesn't really have much interesting information. mid year 485 data is always tricky because you don't know the flow rate of how many came in and how many approved vs denied etc .. many times applications come and get approved without ever hitting 485 inventory. That's why I generally don't like this report mid year. There is not much there that influenced my mind one way or other.


Good luck with your GC applications!

Where does this land us at the end of FY ?

[triplet]

Where does this land us at the end of FY ?

Plausible scenario would be Feb/Mar 2009, if you're a bit more conservative, then Jan 2009. Anything beyond March is possible but the numbers say otherwise. We'll just have to wait and see.

[qesehmk]

Where does this land us at the end of FY ?

redwood - sorry. I don't do manual calculations anymore. I think I will let others opine on your question.

[venkat]

Quick question Gurus... Please move it to a different thread after 1-2 days....One of my friend whose PD is Oct 2008 is expecting to get his GC in next 5-6 months. He passed his Real Estate Sales Associate exam and wishes to start working as an Agent (he will be working on 1099 and not w2) while still working in his main job.

Is this correct and advisable especially since he has NOT got his GC yet? Anyone have experiences/knowledge in this area?

[Pundit Arjun]

Quick question Gurus... Please move it to a different thread after 1-2 days....One of my friend whose PD is Oct 2008 is expecting to get his GC in next 5-6 months. He passed his Real Estate Sales Associate exam and wishes to start working as an Agent (he will be working on 1099 and not w2) while still working in his main job.

Is this correct and advisable especially since he has NOT got his GC yet? Anyone have experiences/knowledge in this area?

Venkat,

As long as your friend has EAD, he can start to work as an agent and work on 1099 while being on his main job.

[Jagan01]

Apr bulletin released without change

http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...pril-2014.html

[qesehmk]

Thanks Jagan.

It's very interesting that EB2C as well as EB3ROWMP are moving exactly 1 month per month. CO has truly mastered the art of demand/supply management for visas!

As far as EB2 is concerned the dates will eventually move in Q4 of 2014 i.e. Jul-Sep 2014. So there is nothing other than wait and watch that EB2I can do at this point of time.

Have a great spring break ahead. (At least on the west coast it is next week). Not sure about east coast.

Apr bulletin released without change

http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...pril-2014.html

[geterdone]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/n...rease/6301869/

http://www.nfap.com/pdf/NFAP%20Polic...rch%202014.pdf