EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[Jagan01]

Sun,

There were 70K approx perm applications received in FY2013, 35K completed and 35K pending at DoL. With this if they start clearing the backlog, we will end up at 1.5 years worth of load this year .

This is similar to I-140 backlog cleared last FY, the processing was slow in the 2012 and picked up in 2013. http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=5&charttype=1

Let us wait and see.

Kanmani,

So out of 70k, they have approved approx 35k.

Does this 35k include both EB2 and EB3? I am trying to see how did the other user (idiotic) come up with the number of 14k for EB2. Any links ?

[Kanmani]

Jagan,

Here is FY-2013 Perm statistics . http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...013_YTD_Q4.pdf

35K approval includes all employment based applications .

[wavelet3000]

Total number of PERMs (Obtained from OFLC annual report)
=================================================
Year -- India -- Total -- ROW+C

2009 -- 11387 -- 29502 -- 18115
2010 -- 28930 -- 70237 -- 41307
2011 -- 31273 -- 59863 -- 28590
2012 -- 30276 -- 54581 -- 24305
2013 -- 20925 -- 35188 -- 14263

Total number of EB2 GCs allocated (Obtained from DoS annual Visa statistics)
================================================== =============
Year -- India -- Total -- ROW+C

2009 -- 10106 -- 46016 -- 35910
2010 -- 19961 -- 53872 -- 33911
2011 -- 23997 -- 66804 -- 42807
2012 -- 19726 -- 50593 -- 30867
2013 -- 17193 -- 63461 -- 46268

Several issues here
1. PERM data look like by approval year, not by year of PD. DOL's processing times have varied a lot over last 5 years, from as little as 2 weeks to almost a year. Data by Spec to get breakdown by PD year have not been updated since last year.
2. PERM numbers do not include dependents. Typical average multiplier for dependents is 2-3.
3. PERM includes both EB2 and EB3 and filtering by advanced degree requirement is not entirely sufficient.
4. For ROWMP, porters may have multiple PERMS per one primary within the above period.
5. NIW is said to be small but that can be single digit thousands.
6. There are also cases where PERM owner subsequently gets GC by other means - EB1 porting, IR through marriage, changing chargeability country through marriage.

[idiotic]

Several issues here
1. PERM data look like by approval year, not by year of PD. DOL's processing times have varied a lot over last 5 years, from as little as 2 weeks to almost a year. Data by Spec to get breakdown by PD year have not been updated since last year.
2. PERM numbers do not include dependents. Typical average multiplier for dependents is 2-3.
3. PERM includes both EB2 and EB3 and filtering by advanced degree requirement is not entirely sufficient.
4. For ROWMP, porters may have multiple PERMS per one primary within the above period.
5. NIW is said to be small but that can be single digit thousands.
6. There are also cases where PERM owner subsequently gets GC by other means - EB1 porting, IR through marriage, changing chargeability country through marriage.

Thanks for the excellent review comments.. Agreed with all your comments..

My intention was never to make thorough analysis considering all the factors. I was just trying to keep things simple by gauging the incoming rate of EB2 ROW vs outgoing rate of EB2 ROW to gauge..

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

Any possibility that PERM slowdowns would make CO start moving the dates by May/June instead of waiting till Aug/Sep?

[Jagan01]

Any possibility that PERM slowdowns would make CO start moving the dates by May/June instead of waiting till Aug/Sep?

Doesn't matter much...

I just hope that the slowdown results in increased spillover... If we can get around 10k from EB2ROW then it would be good enough to move dates well into 2009...

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

Doesn't matter much...

I just hope that the slowdown results in increased spillover... If we can get around 10k from EB2ROW then it would be good enough to move dates well into 2009...

I hear you but what I'm interested in is the timing of when CO starts to apply the spillover.

[pramod]

Latest demand data
http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/...utOffDates.pdf

[redsox2009]

Demand data is out

http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/...utOffDates.pdf

umulative
Demand Prior To
All Other
Countries China India Grand Total
January 1, 2004 0 0 5 5
January 1, 2009 0 325 10,550 10,875
January 1, 2010 0 2,600 24,500 27,100
January 1, 2013 175 3,425 29,500 33,100
Cumulative
Demand Prior To
All Other
Countries China India Mexico Philippines
Grand
Total
January 1, 2004 * * 2,775 * 0 2,775
January 1, 2005 * * 13,000 * 0 13,000
January 1, 2006 * * 19,550 * 0 19,550
January 1, 2007 * * 27,500 * 300 27,800
January 1, 2013 * * 30,350 * 1,550 31,900

[rosharma]

Why total number of VISA is still 148000? Shouldn't it be 150000 after FB allocation?

[Jagan01]

I hear you but what I'm interested in is the timing of when CO starts to apply the spillover.

VB is out and not movements expected... I do not think dates move before Aug... Aug is when you can expect the first movement...
http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...arch-2014.html

[Jagan01]

To me significant thing in this demand data is 175 backlog for EB2 ROW.. EB2 ROW was never backlogged so far at least in demand data. This is the first time it happened..

It was 200 in the last DD.

[idiotic]

It was 200 in the last DD.

My Mistake..

I was using this data from the forum and overlooked.. deleted the original post..

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...-Cut-Off-Dates

[Jagan01]

My Mistake..

I was using this data from the forum and overlooked.. deleted the original post..

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...-Cut-Off-Dates

Demand:
1. 10,500 pending before Jan 2009.
2. This demand should have accounted for all the applications that have been filed until Nov 2013. There has been sufficient time for all porters to have been included in this data.

Supply:
1. I would think that the annual quota has been used up for EB2I in FY 2014.
2. Based on the spillover we can estimate getting 2.5k from FB, 4k from EB4, 2.5k from EB1 (The FB visa that they get. I am assuming EB1 uses its allocation of 40k like last year).
3. Spillover from 37k (43 for EB2 - EB2I - EB2C) that EB2ROW will not use. This is the killer factor. It can range from 3k to 10k.
4. Supply remaining will range from 12k - 19k

Dates movement (This does not mean everyone before PD gets GC):
Lower end - With 12k we should enter Feb 2009.
Higher end - With 19k this should cover Aug 2009. If they move to Aug 2009, then it would leave inventory of 8k left + new porting. It will all depend on the new porting whether the CO wants to build more demand or not.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Sorry to post off-topic here but I just wanted to share a news item that I came across today to notify fellow Indians who may be applying for OCI, PIO cards etc. in next few months. Please move this post to the appropriate section or remove it after few days.

Indian Embassy in Washington DC has invited bids for outsourcing of services related to issuance of Indian visas, overseas Citizen of India (OCI) and Person of Indian Origin (PIO) cards, surrender and renunciation of Indian citizenship certificate. This is due to dissatisfaction with the services provided by BLS International and multiple customer complaints received by the Embassy.

It is unclear whether the new company will be awarded the contract to issue Indian Passports also or not?

Here is the news link and Embassy link.

http://www.rediff.com/news/report/us...g/20140209.htm

http://www.cgisf.org/notice/display/96

http://www.cgisf.org/notice/display/97

[bvsamrat]

Thanks God. BLS is pain the rear.

We are in the process of applying for my daughter's OCI who had renounced her Indian Passport 10 years back as duly marked on her passport before obtaining Indian Visa . But Now BLS returned her OCI application back stating that she should renounce once again.

There no customer service and no response and no clarification. Whatever its worth, I prefer Indian Govt to deal directly in these issues.

Sorry to post off-topic here but I just wanted to share a news item that I came across today to notify fellow Indians who may be applying for OCI, PIO cards etc. in next few months. Please move this post to the appropriate section or remove it after few days.

Indian Embassy in Washington DC has invited bids for outsourcing of services related to issuance of Indian visas, overseas Citizen of India (OCI) and Person of Indian Origin (PIO) cards, surrender and renunciation of Indian citizenship certificate. This is due to dissatisfaction with the services provided by BLS International and multiple customer complaints received by the Embassy.

It is unclear whether the new company will be awarded the contract to issue Indian Passports also or not?

Here is the news link and Embassy link.

http://www.rediff.com/news/report/us...g/20140209.htm

http://www.cgisf.org/notice/display/96

http://www.cgisf.org/notice/display/97

[imdeng]

EB3-C-ROW movement has now gone from ridiculous to ludicrous. Another 3 months movement - how in hell do they not have enough inventory by now. I have been sceptical of Q's assertion that EB3 might go C and give horizontal spillover to EB3I pretty soon; but the way things are going, we might be there pretty soon.

EB3ROW was 01-MAY-07 one year back. It is now at 01-SEP-12: More than five years movement in one year - and it does not seem to have finished yet. Is there anything else going on other than low EB3ROW density past 07/07?

VB is out and not movements expected... I do not think dates move before Aug... Aug is when you can expect the first movement...
http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...arch-2014.html

[ksur23]

Demand:
1. 10,500 pending before Jan 2009.
2. This demand should have accounted for all the applications that have been filed until Nov 2013. There has been sufficient time for all porters to have been included in this data.

Supply:
1. I would think that the annual quota has been used up for EB2I in FY 2014.
2. Based on the spillover we can estimate getting 2.5k from FB, 4k from EB4, 2.5k from EB1 (The FB visa that they get. I am assuming EB1 uses its allocation of 40k like last year).
3. Spillover from 37k (43 for EB2 - EB2I - EB2C) that EB2ROW will not use. This is the killer factor. It can range from 3k to 10k.
4. Supply remaining will range from 12k - 19k

Dates movement (This does not mean everyone before PD gets GC):
Lower end - With 12k we should enter Feb 2009.
Higher end - With 19k this should cover Aug 2009. If they move to Aug 2009, then it would leave inventory of 8k left + new porting. It will all depend on the new porting whether the CO wants to build more demand or not.

This analysis augurs well for someone like me with a PD of Jan 2009. My impression from discussions in the forum until a week back was that 2009 was a distant possibility at best this year. What changed that exactly?
Thanks!

[shreyasai2004]

Hi All,

As per demand data can we expect the dates will move until Dec 2008 by end of this fiscal year. Because I my PD 29th July 2008. Can I expect the dates will move and will I get my GC by end of this FY.

thanks

[redwood]

Sun,

There were 70K approx perm applications received in FY2013, 35K completed and 35K pending at DoL. With this if they start clearing the backlog, we will end up at 1.5 years worth of load this year .

This is similar to I-140 backlog cleared last FY, the processing was slow in the 2012 and picked up in 2013. http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=5&charttype=1

Let us wait and see.

Kanmani

The Dashboard is amazing piece of information. When does the data refresh ? If we look at the I-140 approvals from June 12 to Aug 13(Assuming 1 month lag between I-140 approval and GC approval, EB2ROW was U since July 2012), there were ~106K I-140 approvals. This year, the average is exactly half of that (Sep - Nov 13). Hence this year EB2ROW GC issued will be exactly half of last year(~21K) yielding EB2I a spillover of 17-18K. (after accounting 3K for C)

Of course the PERM processing is the wild factor as it becomes an input to I-140 approval numbers. There is not a big probability of speeding up PERM as the budget is tight even after the sequestration relief for this year.

[Kanmani]

Kanmani

The Dashboard is amazing piece of information. When does the data refresh ? If we look at the I-140 approvals from June 12 to Aug 13(Assuming 1 month lag between I-140 approval and GC approval, EB2ROW was U since July 2012), there were ~106K I-140 approvals. This year, the average is exactly half of that (Sep - Nov 13). Hence this year EB2ROW GC issued will be exactly half of last year(~21K) yielding EB2I a spillover of 17-18K. (after accounting 3K for C)

Of course the PERM processing is the wild factor as it becomes an input to I-140 approval numbers. There is not a big probability of speeding up PERM as the budget is tight even after the sequestration relief for this year.

The time lag between I140 processing and GC approval could be 3 months as I-485 comes into effect only after the I-140 approval. They are not processed simultaneously, so overall average time to clear a concurrent filing could be 6 to 8 months.

Yes it is good to see that the pending I-140 graph line is considerably low, receipts are also on the lower side. But we have to wait until May 2014 to see the trend. They could speed up the process and clear more applications to maximize the RoW usage.

[imdeng]

It is very likely in my opinion.

Hi All,

As per demand data can we expect the dates will move until Dec 2008 by end of this fiscal year. Because I my PD 29th July 2008. Can I expect the dates will move and will I get my GC by end of this FY.

thanks

[imdeng]

I would add that the continued move in EB3ROW will perhaps stop any EB3ROW to EB2ROW porting, and change the EB2/EB3 ratio for ROW - leading to a little more horizontal spillover for EB2I.

A. realization that the cumulative backlog before 2009 is ~10K and not ~15K?
B. possibility that EB5 will remain current?
C. Continued perm slowdowns?

Just possibilities, I am wondering the same thing though. Hopefully jagan clarifies.

[Jagan01]

A. realization that the cumulative backlog before 2009 is ~10K and not ~15K?
B. possibility that EB5 will remain current?
C. Continued perm slowdowns?

Just possibilities, I am wondering the same thing though. Hopefully jagan clarifies.

I agree to what Sports mentioned.

The biggest piece of data we have had is the demand data published last week. That shows that there are 10500 candidates prior to Jan 2009. This removed the questions that have been around the demand side of things. There were many applicants that had ported and had applied in the period from Aug-Nov. Now all that is factored in and the number pending before Jan 2009 is 10500.

Supply side is also pretty clear. There will be good spillover from EB2ROW due to slow down in PERM, sufficient enough to negate the effect of lower spillover from FB (10k instead of 18k from last year).

The only unknown we have is "How many visas from FY 2014 allocation were used up until now". In my assumption, I have assumed that to be the annual 3000 that is allowed to EB2I. Different people have different take on that. We will never know that number.

[vishnu]

Looking at 2007-13 EB2 India visas issued, average over the period is 18,000.

Do we have a sense of what type of backlog CO would like to maintain pre-spillover season. Safe to say at least around 18-20,000? Otherwise, there is the risk of visa wastage.