EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[Kanmani]

Q, I have a problem with point no.4.

The inventory had a total of approximately 15k pending demand , No big bunch of pending crowd with PDs earlier than June 2008 brought forward to FY'14 , which shows the movement was no meaningless. Where do we insert the porting demand into this 17K actuals scenario? How can you justify the CoD movement to June 2008?

[qesehmk]

Kanmani -

2012 EB3I Inventory - 47354 (A)
2013 EB3I Inventory - 34336 (B)
2013 EB3I Approvals - 7816 (C)
2013 EB3I Portings + Denials - ? (D)

A - B = C + D thus implying D = 5202.

Makes sense?

Q, I have a problem with point no.4.

The inventory had a total of approximately 15k pending demand , No big bunch of pending crowd with PDs earlier than June 2008 brought forward to FY'14 , which shows the movement was no meaningless. Where do we insert the porting demand into this 17K actuals scenario? How can you justify the CoD movement to June 2008?

[YTeleven]

Hi YTeleven,

Thanks for the data.

The data you provided only considers the people porting from EB3 to EB2 that had earlier filed I-485 in EB3.

Did you consider the fact that post Aug 2007 there are many many EB3s with approved I-140 that have already ported to EB2. These candidates do not show up in the demand data. Technically, the porting number was more than 7784 in FY2013.

Hi Jagan,

I don't want to consider it as those are NOT many but insignificant numbers as the period we are considering is between Aug'07 to Dec'08 and all my calculations are approximations.
Let me come to that porting figure from a different equation as shown below:
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Oct2012 EB2I Inventory data before Jan2009--| 22923
Oct2013 EB2I Inventory data before Jan2009--| 13645
Reduction of above data in FY13 (Difference)--| 9278(B)
Actual Visas allocated for EB2-I in FY13--------| 17193(A)
Approx. Porting numbers in above Visas--------| 7915(A-B)
----------------------------------------------------------------

[Kanmani]

Kanmani -

2012 EB3I Inventory - 47354 (A)
2013 EB3I Inventory - 34336 (B)
2013 EB3I Approvals - 7816 (C)
2013 EB3I Portings + Denials - ? (D)

A - B = C + D thus implying D = 5202.

Makes sense?

I think I was not clear in framing the question. My Bad!

How does that 5000 porting fit into the approvals ?
Movement to June 2008 - 15K
Porting - 5K
Total - 20K
Actuals - 17K

[qesehmk]

So the evidence of 5K porting is coming from EB3 data. I guess your question is how do we fit that into EB2 numbers right?

So as you said ...

I would do it as follows (please plug in the numbers as I haven't checked them specifically for EB2).

EB2I 2012 Inventory - A
EB2I 2013 Inventory - B
EB2I porting 2013 - 5000
EB2I denials plus withdrawals 2013 - D
EB2I approvals 2013 - 17K

A + 5000 - B - D = 17K

That's how those numbers will fit together.

I think I was not clear in framing the question. My Bad!

How does that 5000 porting fit into the approvals ?
Movement to June 2008 - 15K
Porting - 5K
Total - 20K
Actuals - 17K

[Kanmani]

So the evidence of 5K porting is coming from EB3 data. I guess your question is how do we fit that into EB2 numbers right?

So as you said ...

I would do it as follows (please plug in the numbers as I haven't checked them specifically for EB2).

EB2I 2012 Inventory - A
EB2I 2013 Inventory - B
EB2I porting 2013 - 5000
EB2I denials plus withdrawals 2013 - D
EB2I approvals 2013 - 17K

A + 5000 - B - D = 17K

That's how those numbers will fit together.

This makes sense. I left the 'D' part. Thanks

[suninphx]

3. EB2ROW consumption was 36K. That is huge. Plus EB2P received 4.4K and EB2-SKorea received 7K. This doesn't bode well for 2014

Q- this represents 15 month worth if demand. Not that it dilutes the point you are making but still wanted to point out. Another thing is if PERM delay continue for rest of FY then this demand might even out over next years

[suninphx]

Sun,

I do not think my estimation of EB1 is conservative. I am thinking EB1 will use 40,500 out of the 42,910 available to them. FY2013 numbers show they used up 39,058.

Family based 10k extra visas will be distributed as follows:
EB1 --> 2910
EB2 --> 2910
EB3 --> 2910
EB4 --> 635
EB5 --> 635

EB1 will be having approximately 42,910 available visas. Remember that 2,910 is coming from Family based. I feel they will completely use up the original 40,000 available to them. There might be around 2500 that they do not use. However, I have already accounted those 2500 in the total spillover that I gave to EB2I from FB.

EB2I will get 6k spillover from FB.
2.5k from EB1
3k of its own
1k from EB4 and EB5.

Jagan - thanks for those numbers.

[harapatta2012]

I consider following as worst case scerario

Supply - Spillover
EB1 - 3k
EB2 ROW- 2k
EB4- 3 k
EB5 - 0.5k

(The above includes the 8K FB extra visas)

Total supply - 8.5 +3k = 11.5k

Demand-

Porting - EB3>Eb2 -- 6k
demand before June 15,2008 - 3k
Total demand ---9k

leftover for forward movement =SUpply-demand = 2.5k

This could bring the dates in sep 2014 for EB2I = AUg 15 2008

Offcourse this is worst case but not unrealistic.

[qesehmk]

Q- this represents 15 month worth if demand.

I am sorry I am not sure I understand. Can you please explain.

[suninphx]

I am sorry I am not sure I understand. Can you please explain.

So EB2ROW was retro for last 3 months of FY2012...in the numbers from FY2013 include those.

[qesehmk]

So EB2ROW was retro for last 3 months of FY2012...in the numbers from FY2013 include those.

sun - that's very good point. And generally that would'nt be applicable to retro categories. But EB2ROW is a generally current category and so it does apply. Thanks.
And yes you are right ..... the larger point still remains valid .... but the severity is reduced somewhat.

[redwood]

sun - that's very good point. And generally that would'nt be applicable to retro categories. But EB2ROW is a generally current category and so it does apply. Thanks.
And yes you are right ..... the larger point still remains valid .... but the severity is reduced somewhat.

Actually here is another take, all you Gurus can critique

Lets assume that PERM to Green Card for EB2ROW(non- I and C) takes 3 months (mostly true). So, you will have to assume that Q3 and Q4 2012 PERM is factored into 2013 GC demand since EB2ROW was U in Q42012.

Now (Q3 + Q4) 2012 PERMS = ~38K (see below link)

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...ation_2012.pdf

2013 PERMS = ~35K (By the same logic as above, we need to take out Q4 2013, ~7K) (see below link)

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...013_YTD_Q4.pdf

So, we can say that 66K (38K (2012) + 35K (2013) - 7K (Q4 2013)) were approved for the 2013 Green Card quota.

We all know that certain percentage of 66K PERMS is EB2ROW(non- I and C), lets say 30%

So, 66K * 30% ~20K EB2ROW(non- I and C) PERMS got converted into ~40K EB2ROW(non- I and C) Green Cards, giving us a rough 1:2 ratio.

Now in 2014, lets say 40K PERMS are approved out of which 30% (12K) are EB2ROW(non I and C)

So, by the above logic EB2ROW should use around 24K Green Cards leaving ~20K for EB2I and C. Now C uses 3K leaving I with 17K

The wild card is of course PERM processing. I also haven't yet factored in other spillovers. What did I miss ?

[amulchandra]

p.s. - Forgot to say but EB3ROW as well as EB3I has solid good trends going on. Basically EB3ROW should become current in couple of years from now - perhaps as soon as next. Whereas EB2I should move at least 6 months this year if the porting is proceeding at 5K/year. For EB2C the situation is ridiculous and they might want to reconsider filing in EB3!!

Hi Q ,

My PD is July 2006 eb3 I and we have been waiting patiently for the past 8 years. My kid will be going to college in 2016. It would be nice to have our GC by 2015 Dec when he starts applying for colleges. Do you think there is a chance that we might get GC by that time ?

Thank you very much in advance.

Amul

[Jagan01]

A few more interesting observations from the 2013 visa allocations: (In the order of importance and implications)

1. Overall consumption was 3K more than initial visa allocation of 158K
2. EB2 consumption was 63K i.e. approx 18K more than quota. Thus 18K came from other categories.
3. EB2ROW consumption was 36K. That is huge. Plus EB2P received 4.4K and EB2-SKorea received 7K. This doesn't bode well for 2014
4. EB3 overall consumption was 41K which was 3K less than its quota. However EB3I received 7K and inventory reduced by 12K. Thus 5K of EB3->2 porting for India was confirmed.
5. EB1 India ate up almost 10K while EB1 china consumed 6K. thus showing healthy demand for EB1 in 2014.
6. EB5 china consumed 6K thus showing healthy future demand for EB5

Overall it is safe to say without the 18K extra visas EB2I would be crushed under all this demand and there would be very little movement. Fundamentally there are several -ve trends going on here.

1. EB1 and 5 has healthy demand.
2. EB2ROW has very strong demand - probably it includes EB3 porting.
3. EB2I has almost 5K of EB3I porting.

All of this means EB2I will move quite slow in future years. If the employment environment improves then EB2ROW will add even more pressure. Sorry for the bad news .... but unfortunately that's the truth.

Any critique or a different perspective is very welcome. I would be glad to be wrong on all of these.

p.s. - Forgot to say but EB3ROW as well as EB3I has solid good trends going on. Basically EB3ROW should become current in couple of years from now - perhaps as soon as next. Whereas EB2I should move at least 6 months this year if the porting is proceeding at 5K/year. For EB2C the situation is ridiculous and they might want to reconsider filing in EB3!!

Q, Kanmani,

I had a question regarding the 7k visas given to S.Korea and 4.4k to Philippines. I remember someone sharing a document stating that all spillover should go to the most retrogressed country. According to that, EB2I should have received entire spillover. Basically, we were robbed of by S. Korea and Philippines and we lost 3.4 k visas.

Is EB2I supposed to receive the complete spillover coming to EB2 or not ?

[vizcard]

Q, Kanmani,

I had a question regarding the 7k visas given to S.Korea and 4.4k to Philippines. I remember someone sharing a document stating that all spillover should go to the most retrogressed country. According to that, EB2I should have received entire spillover. Basically, we were robbed of by S. Korea and Philippines and we lost 3.4 k visas.

Is EB2I supposed to receive the complete spillover coming to EB2 or not ?

The rule is spillover goes to the most retrogressed country assuming other countries have met their annual 7% quota. That quota is combined FB+EB. So the fact that SK and Phil got those EB visas meant that they didn't exceed their annual EB+FB quota.

[Jagan01]

The rule is spillover goes to the most retrogressed country assuming other countries have met their annual 7% quota. That quota is combined FB+EB. So the fact that SK and Phil got those EB visas meant that they didn't exceed their annual EB+FB quota.

Viz,

Thanks. Follow up Question.

1. In the example of Phil, they received a total of 26,840 out of total of 377,022. That exceeds the 7%. Something went wrong here and we lost our spillover.
2. In case of Phil, both EB2 and EB3 received more than the allocation. Once a country has demand left in both EB2 and EB3 and they are below the 7%, then which category gets the visas first. EB2 OR EB3. Basically if they give all visas to EB3 until 7% is met then EB2 visas wont be utilized and if they give all visas to EB2 until 7% is met then EB3 visas wont be utilized.

[triplet]

If you look at the last inventory, there are a little more than 10000 EB2I 2008 waiting for their Visas. If you take porting into account (estimated at around 4000-5000), I just don't see how the dates can cross Dec 2008 in a sustainable way. To me, even Dec is looking a bit shaky. I'm not being pessimistic, just trying to make sense of what's actually possible - I guess someone has to since Spec has gone missing!

[vizcard]

Viz,

Thanks. Follow up Question.

1. In the example of Phil, they received a total of 26,840 out of total of 377,022. That exceeds the 7%. Something went wrong here and we lost our spillover.
2. In case of Phil, both EB2 and EB3 received more than the allocation. Once a country has demand left in both EB2 and EB3 and they are below the 7%, then which category gets the visas first. EB2 OR EB3. Basically if they give all visas to EB3 until 7% is met then EB2 visas wont be utilized and if they give all visas to EB2 until 7% is met then EB3 visas wont be utilized.

It will always be EB2 first and then EB3.

Every year there is some goof up with the numbers and allocation but the basic "rules" are in place.

[qesehmk]

redwood - sorry I was away for a few days. We rented a cabin that had no internet. So couldn't respond earlier.

I think your thought process is right. Other people might have debate if it is 30% or 35% or 40%. Or whether 1 ROW PERM converts to 1.5 or 2 or 2.15. They are all assumptions anyway. So I think your thought process is largely right.

But what Sun said and I responded to was his assertion that in 2013 whatever X GCs EB2ROW received didn't map to 12 months of demand .... but rather 15 months. And so in 2014 ... all else being equal EB2ROW should consume X / 15 * 12 i.e 80% of 2013 visa consumption. So you may want to cross check your theory against this 80% number.

p.s. - A note to other moderators .... whenever you logon please check the moderator queue for any unapproved posts. This way new people won't have to wait too much before their posts are approved. Thanks much for your work.

Actually here is another take, all you Gurus can critique

Lets assume that PERM to Green Card for EB2ROW(non- I and C) takes 3 months (mostly true). So, you will have to assume that Q3 and Q4 2012 PERM is factored into 2013 GC demand since EB2ROW was U in Q42012.

Now (Q3 + Q4) 2012 PERMS = ~38K (see below link)

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...ation_2012.pdf

2013 PERMS = ~35K (By the same logic as above, we need to take out Q4 2013, ~7K) (see below link)

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...013_YTD_Q4.pdf

So, we can say that 66K (38K (2012) + 35K (2013) - 7K (Q4 2013)) were approved for the 2013 Green Card quota.

We all know that certain percentage of 66K PERMS is EB2ROW(non- I and C), lets say 30%

So, 66K * 30% ~20K EB2ROW(non- I and C) PERMS got converted into ~40K EB2ROW(non- I and C) Green Cards, giving us a rough 1:2 ratio.

Now in 2014, lets say 40K PERMS are approved out of which 30% (12K) are EB2ROW(non I and C)

So, by the above logic EB2ROW should use around 24K Green Cards leaving ~20K for EB2I and C. Now C uses 3K leaving I with 17K

The wild card is of course PERM processing. I also haven't yet factored in other spillovers. What did I miss ?

[redwood]

But what Sun said and I responded to was his assertion that in 2013 whatever X GCs EB2ROW received didn't map to 12 months of demand .... but rather 15 months. And so in 2014 ... all else being equal EB2ROW should consume X / 15 * 12 i.e 80% of 2013 visa consumption. So you may want to cross check your theory against this 80% number.

And I think that is what I differ on .

if
(Q3 + Q4) 2012 PERMS = ~38K and
(Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4) 2013 PERMS = ~35K

(see links in my prior post)

and if DOL continues with the similar pace as 2013 then

the 2013 GC EB2ROW consumption was >24 months and not 15 months worth of demand.

[qesehmk]

I think that your assumption of 3 month turnaround for EB2ROW doesn't gel with 24 months of backlog clearance for EB2ROW in 2013.

Something has to give.

p.s. - The 6 quarters you show below are 18 months. And I don't think that Q4 can be counted at all (assuming USCIS calendar here). So we are talking about Q3 that experienced retrogression. Q4 and Q1-3 from 2012. That's 15 months. I would take that 15 months - map to labor data and use the actual approvals vs labor data to figure out ROW %. You can't make a % assumption on ROW and then try to map based on that to months. Hope it makes sense!

And I think that is what I differ on .

if
(Q3 + Q4) 2012 PERMS = ~38K and
(Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4) 2013 PERMS = ~35K

(see links in my prior post)

and if DOL continues with the similar pace as 2013 then

the 2013 GC EB2ROW consumption was >24 months and not 15 months worth of demand.

[sreddy]

Hi Gurus, I need a bit of advise. My current H1 is expiring first week of August. My company law firm sent a notice to apply for H1 extension. I have EAD valid until March 2015. With my priority date (5th Aug 2008), I think there is a fair chance I will get GC by then. I believe they don't know about my EAD extension and validity of that new EAD card, which I extended myself.

1. What are the pros and cons of applying for extension? Should I even be spending time filling paper work, sending, etc.
2. I have a planned India trip this June, will be back first week of July. Anything related to that trip?
3. Also if I get any good opportunity around (not that I am seriously looking), any effect if I decide to move on?

[Kanmani]

And I think that is what I differ on .

if
(Q3 + Q4) 2012 PERMS = ~38K and
(Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4) 2013 PERMS = ~35K

(see links in my prior post)

and if DOL continues with the similar pace as 2013 then

the 2013 GC EB2ROW consumption was >24 months and not 15 months worth of demand.

redwood,

15 months demand is accumulated during the door shut period for EB2 ROW (july, Aug, Sept of 2012). EB2ROW were unable to file their I-485 due to retrogression, hence the 2013 approvals included those 3 months worth of demand. This scenario is entirely different from the perm delay one.

This theory can also be used to calculate the porting demand, porters had an 18 months wait time to get promoted to the demand data queue and then to GC approval, considering the cut of date was retrogressed from April 2012 to July 2013.

One comforting news is that 2014 may see less accumulation w.r.to porters, as the gate was open until Nov 2013.

[shekhar_kuruk]

Hi Gurus, I need a bit of advise. My current H1 is expiring first week of August. My company law firm sent a notice to apply for H1 extension. I have EAD valid until March 2015. With my priority date (5th Aug 2008), I think there is a fair chance I will get GC by then. I believe they don't know about my EAD extension and validity of that new EAD card, which I extended myself.

1. What are the pros and cons of applying for extension? Should I even be spending time filling paper work, sending, etc.
2. I have a planned India trip this June, will be back first week of July. Anything related to that trip?
3. Also if I get any good opportunity around (not that I am seriously looking), any effect if I decide to move on?

Looking at your priority date, looks like there is a fair chance that you could get current before you H1 expires, but you may not be able to get the GC till the end of Aug or later, depends on the processing time.
But having said that applying for an extension should not be an issue if your company is paying for it, which it should(the law states that). You also have an EAD which will help you get in and out of the US without a visa.
If you think it's an hassle to file, it is up to you to decide. I am on my 11th year of H1 and will continue to be till I get my GC. All the points you have indicated should not be an issue.