EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[gcpursuit]

When do they add people to the NVC waiting list?

I have been through CP last time. One of the reasons we chose CP was it was faster than 485 route. When we submitted documents , our documents were processed in 15 days and we were actually waiting for a interview date. But the retrogression happened before that ( our PD is june 2009 ). I believe most of the pre june 2008 would have had their interviews before retrogression this year. My guess is new CP filers and post june 2008 would be more in the 9k waiting list. If they were from the PD movement in 2012, then DOS would have had this number and it should have been in the demand data right?

[Kanmani]

When do they add people to the NVC waiting list?

In my opinion it is just after the approved I-140, I-130 forwarded to the NVC.

Once I-140 (Immigrant visa petition in the case of EB) is approved the USCIS forwards the I-140 to the National Visa Center. Whenever the PD mentioned in the I-140 is not current the petition is added to the NVC waiting list.

I think those 9k include petitioners + dependents should be as of Nov 2013. Correct me if I am wrong.

[qesehmk]

sport - happy new year to you too!

So actually I am not being conservative here. I am just taking USCIS/NVC data at face value. USCIS data is as of 1st Oct. NVC data is as of Nov 1. USCIS data (i.e. 485) don't include NVC. Those are provided facts. So no need to build any assumptions there.

Where we have to build assumption - is the distribution of NVC data over certain time period. So the question is what is a fair time period?

I would reason that there is no reason why CP candidates from past or in future were or will be more inclined to file CP. In other words the tendency of people to file CP should be constant over time. Thus then you distribute those 9K in proportion to the 485 inventory and you get 4.5K upto Dec 2008.

Hope this makes sense. But willing to adjust if there are better reasons to!

Happy new year Q.

I just read this latest on the NVC data from you. I think you have overestimated the NVC filers. NVC filers are the first ones to get greened once their interview dates are in place (one of the big advantages to go that route). So what is the reason that potentially a couple of thousand such filers are still waiting with PDs as far back as 2006? The starting point should be the assumption that a majority of such filers are cleared until at least June 2008.

Then, remember back in 2012, plenty of late 2008 filers were greened as the DOS ran out of visa numbers. I think the DIS might have cleared the NVC backlog until the end of 2008 in fact. By contrast, almost no one from 2009 could get greened and by the time their turn came, internal retrogression had set in. Thus a majority of those filers should be from 2009 and 2010.

Of course it's good to be conservative, but I think we should not be on the side of "too conservative".

[Kanmani]

Maybe that can explain why the actual AOS numbers for 2009 are so low.

Perm Filing was relatively low during 2009.

[qesehmk]

sport - I think we are in sync because by straightline mapping 9k CP backlog over 485 EB2I backlog you would indeed arrive at majority of CP backlog post 2007.

So yes ... I agree.

Additionally I also believe that significant CP folks are EB3 folks who have opted for India job with their own company and trying to take CP route and keep option open for EB1 as they mature in their career!! But again we can only speculate!!

Q, there is a massive jump in the CP filing over one year. Cumulatively, EB2 numbers increased from ~7k to ~16K...a jump of about 9K. I find it very interesting that 9k numbers are attributed to India. Thus the overall increase in the numbers is squarely attributable to India alone.

Now, what can make numbers for India go that much higher? Around November 2012, the EB2 date starting pushing forward at full throttle. Thus, I believe a majority of CP filers are *at least* post July 2007.

Finally, at what point are the CP filers greened? They had 2 chances - up until March 2012 and for about 4 months this year. At the very least, I would expect a majority of CP filers until June 2008 to be cleared. I would also expect some of the CP filers until Dec 2008 to be cleared back in 2012 when they had a chance.

In my view, it is not unreasonable to expect about 4 to 5K CP filers for years 2008 onward. In a normal year, that number would be 2K, but during 2008-2010, the economy was down and many people had gone back home. It's not unreasonable for them to take the CP route and attempt to come back through the same consulting firm that applied for them. Maybe that can explain why the actual AOS numbers for 2009 are so low.

[gcpursuit]

sport - I think we are in sync because by straightline mapping 9k CP backlog over 485 EB2I backlog you would indeed arrive at majority of CP backlog post 2007.

So yes ... I agree.

Additionally I also believe that significant CP folks are EB3 folks who have opted for India job with their own company and trying to take CP route and keep option open for EB1 as they mature in their career!! But again we can only speculate!!

So the 9k includes people who have never been current. right? If you have the I-140 marked with CP, then it gets added to the list. Am I missing something?

Also, even though you designate CP in I-140, people can still choose to file I-485. May be people wanted to keep both options open like me ;-)

[qesehmk]

No they don't. My understanding is that one cant file CP unless dates are current. Correct me if I am wrong.

So the 9k includes people who have never been current. right? If you have the I-140 marked with CP, then it gets added to the list. Am I missing something?

Also, even though you designate CP in I-140, people can still choose to file I-485. May be people wanted to keep both options open like me ;-)

[Kanmani]

No they don't. My understanding is that one cant file CP unless dates are current. Correct me if I am wrong.

Q, I think the other way. The waiting list includes immigrant visa applicants as of I-140 approved and forwarded.

Refer my earlier post #2636 today.

[qesehmk]

Q, I think the other way. The waiting list includes immigrant visa applicants as of I-140 approved and forwarded.

Refer my earlier post #2636 today.

kanmani thanks. As always you are right! So instead of 4.5K pre 2009, that should be 2.25K pre 2009 (approx)!

[AC_1980]

I recently applied for EAD/AP renewal for my wife and I (RD Nov 13, 2013), checked the case status today, my EAD/AP are approved, wife's EAD approved, on wife's AP, the status is INITIAL REVIEW, and below that it says:
On December 27, 2013, we mailed you a notice that we certified our approval of this case and sent it to the appropriate appellate body for review. They will notify you directly when they make a final decision. If you move while this case is pending, follow the instructions provided in the notice and use our Change of Address online tool to update your case with your new address or call our customer service center at 1-800-375-5283.

can someone please help me understand what this means? have not received the notice in mail yet. thank you.
*Edit* - filed at Texas Service Center

[Pundit Arjun]

Nothing to worry, AC_1980. Means your application for renewal is approved and the cards are in the mail.
You will be receiving your combo card in couple of days.

I recently applied for EAD/AP renewal for my wife and I (RD Nov 13, 2013), checked the case status today, my EAD/AP are approved, wife's EAD approved, on wife's AP, the status is INITIAL REVIEW, and below that it says:
On December 27, 2013, we mailed you a notice that we certified our approval of this case and sent it to the appropriate appellate body for review. They will notify you directly when they make a final decision. If you move while this case is pending, follow the instructions provided in the notice and use our Change of Address online tool to update your case with your new address or call our customer service center at 1-800-375-5283.

can someone please help me understand what this means? have not received the notice in mail yet. thank you.
*Edit* - filed at Texas Service Center

[AC_1980]

Arjun, thank you for the assurance, I appreciate you taking the time in clarifying this.

Moderators, please move my original question to the appropriate thread, I apologize for posting it here, did so because it appeared this thread sees the most traffic. thank you.

[qesehmk]

Moved gtyagi's discussion under 140 forum to http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...5069#post45069

[tendlya]

Expiring I-94 while pending adjustment of status for dependent wife:

My wife entered USA last Feb using AP (Advance Parole). Her I-94 expires Feb 2014. Our 485 application has been pending for almost couple of years now. She is currently working on EAD. Does she need to renew her I-94? Is there a guidance somewhere which tells what to do with expiring I-94 in this kind of situation?

Please feel free to move this question once answered.

[Kanmani]

Expiring I-94 while pending adjustment of status for dependent wife:

My wife entered USA last Feb using AP (Advance Parole). Her I-94 expires Feb 2014. Our 485 application has been pending for almost couple of years now. She is currently working on EAD. Does she need to renew her I-94? Is there a guidance somewhere which tells what to do with expiring I-94 in this kind of situation?

Please feel free to move this question once answered.

You need not worry about that.

The I-94 expiration date is irrelevant for status purposes, whenever you re-enter using AP. You are currently on AOS pending, which has no status in reality. That's it!

[tendlya]

Thanks Kanmani!

[Jagan01]

There are biometrics requests for candidates with PD Jan 2009.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page

Is that any indication that dates might move upto Jan 2009 in this FY ?

[Kanmani]

There are biometrics requests for candidates with PD Jan 2009.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page

Is that any indication that dates might move upto Jan 2009 in this FY ?

It is a usual practice at USCIS to request for biometrics for the second time whenever the older one in their database turns out to be unreadable.

I guess the OP's son was ineligible then for biometrics when during the rest of the family did. I don't know the min age anyway.

I think the dates might move well in to 2009 FY'14 for other reasons.

[Jagan01]

It is a usual practice at USCIS to request for biometrics for the second time whenever the older one in their database turns out to be unreadable.

I guess the OP's son was ineligible then for biometrics when during the rest of the family did. I don't know the min age anyway.

I think the dates might move well in to 2009 FY'14 for other reasons.

Kanmani,

Happy new year to you.

Lets hope for the best. My gut feeling is telling me that EB1C is about to make a big dent into the supply for FY14.
I am hoping that dates should at least move into early 2009 for EB2I. It would be a pleasant surprise if they end up moving well into 2009.

[Kanmani]

Report of the Visa office 2013 is released (partially). http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/sta...tics_6241.html

[gcpursuit]

Report of the Visa office 2013 is released (partially). http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/sta...tics_6241.html

I see that the number of visas issued in EB2 and EB3 category for India are very low : http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY13...eVI-PartII.pdf
Whats the deal with the NVC waiting list of 17k then? It was ~6k as of Nov 1,2012, right? Am I misunderstanding something here?

[qesehmk]

gcpursuit - The full data is still not in .... they always withhold some data and release other.

So at this point ignore the data.

I also noticed that the grand total for EB preference in 2013 is outright wrong in this document ..http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY13...eVI-PartIV.pdf

So perhaps wait till the full data is disclosed.

I see that the number of visas issued in EB2 and EB3 category for India are very low : http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY13...eVI-PartII.pdf
Whats the deal with the NVC waiting list of 17k then? It was ~6k as of Nov 1,2012, right? Am I misunderstanding something here?

[Kanmani]

I see that the number of visas issued in EB2 and EB3 category for India are very low : http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY13...eVI-PartII.pdf
Whats the deal with the NVC waiting list of 17k then? It was ~6k as of Nov 1,2012, right? Am I misunderstanding something here?

Immigrant Visas issued at consular posts do follow numerical limitation applicable to any foreign state, just like AoS . These applicants are waiting because of the retrogression.

[Kanmani]

February 2014 visa bulletin is out ...http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_6242.html

EB2 I- No change
EB2C- 08Jan09

[TeddyKoochu]

It is a usual practice at USCIS to request for biometrics for the second time whenever the older one in their database turns out to be unreadable.

I guess the OP's son was ineligible then for biometrics when during the rest of the family did. I don't know the min age anyway.

I think the dates might move well in to 2009 FY'14 for other reasons.

Its 14 years this was the case with one of my colleagues son.