EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[imdeng]

I agree - it is along the expected lines - except for the jump in EB3-ROW/M/C. The last demand data said:

Information received from USCIS indicates that the amount of I-485 adjustment of status applications already filed in the Employment Third preference (on which USCIS has not yet finalized action) for countries other than India and the Philippines exceed the numbers currently available under the INA guidelines. These filings are the result of the cut-off dates for those countries having been advanced by over three years since April. Such demand must be considered in the determination of the monthly cut-off dates to prevent any unnecessary fluctuation in those dates.

After saying that they have enough for the year for EB3-ROW/M/C, they go ahead and push PD by another year! Into 2011!!

This tells me that the post 07/07 demand density in EB3-ROW/M/C is very low - possibly because folks have ported to EB2 or could not survive the great recession without EAD/AP. I personally think its mostly the first. If that is so then it is actually good news since that would mean that the volume of folks looking to port from EB3-ROW/M/C in the current year is going to drop significantly. This means that more EB2-ROW/M visas will be available for horizontal spillover into EB2-I.

I am flabbergasted that a movement of almost five years (!!) is not sufficient for EB3-ROW/M/C to build enough inventory. Last Dec EB3-ROW was at 22DEC06 - now its 01OCT11. Could it really be that in a few years we reach the situation of EB3-ROW as C and horizontal spillovers into EB3-I. It would certainly be a very welcome development.

Thanks Rajamp.

The VB was almost uneventful and no surprise whatsoever. It is a good thing and Visa Office must be commended for that.

The retrogression only emphasizes that EB3s are converting in drove and so the pressure on EB2 will continue to remain so. However as usual the year end will come with unused visas and dates will move forward. So EB2Is don't need to be overly concerned.

EB3I dates didnt retrogress. The 485 inventory shows why. EB3C dates are really ironic. It only shows how irrelevant this quota system has become where relativly high skilled workers are backlogged and relatively low skilled categories are moving forward.

As per EB-I folks. .... now just wait and watch through the rest of the year. As NVC and prior year data comes in - there will be some better insights.

[qesehmk]

Very certainly EB3ROW has its own share of portings into EB2ROW.

However that alone isn't enough to justify such a movement. I think there is a larger story behind it and most likely it is going to be extra FB numbers that were given to people in EB3ROW whose countries were underutilizing 7% limit across FB and EB.

We will be able to verify this when the DHS report for 2013 comes out.

I am flabbergasted that a movement of almost five years (!!) is not sufficient for EB3-ROW/M/C to build enough inventory.

[imdeng]

Extra FB numbers are distributed across all categories - so its not that EB3 got any more FB numbers than EB2 got. So FB numbers can't be too large a part of this story. Maybe they just want to build this massive inventory that will last for a few years.

I just think that all the portings have left EB3 bare. Consider the fact that EB3-I lost ~15K folks from its Demand Data in one year. I think we are just now seeing how much porting has already happened over the years.

Very certainly EB3ROW has its own share of portings into EB2ROW.

However that alone isn't enough to justify such a movement. I think there is a larger story behind it and most likely it is going to be extra FB numbers that were given to people in EB3ROW whose countries were underutilizing 7% limit across FB and EB.

We will be able to verify this when the DHS report for 2013 comes out.

[qesehmk]

That would be true for FB spillover from one year to next. But I was not talking about that.

I am wondering if they took FB numbers and used within EB under 7% rule. We will know pretty soon !

Extra FB numbers are distributed across all categories - so its not that EB3 got any more FB numbers than EB2 got. So FB numbers can't be too large a part of this story. Maybe they just want to build this massive inventory that will last for a few years.

I just think that all the portings have left EB3 bare. Consider the fact that EB3-I lost ~15K folks from its Demand Data in one year. I think we are just now seeing how much porting has already happened over the years.

[anasha1721]

Hi qesehmk,
I am a frequent visitor to this forum thanks to detailed analysis you and your colleagues provide. Most of the predictions mentioned here have been spot on. Usually I am not too affected by visa bulletin retrogression as I have a steady job and am happy with it. But the retrogression in this visa bulletin has left me worried and has led me to think about my career and future. I haven't had a promotion in a long time and was wondering if not having a GC is got something to do with it. I am thinking of looking for other opportunities but I am wondering if there is any chance that priority dates might movbe to Dec 2008 or beyond in July 2014 bulletin.
I am asking me this because there might be less spill over in FY'14 and come july 2014 dates might not advance much. I would like to know what you think.
Thanks

[imdeng]

It almost never makes sense to delay what you need to do for your career because of what is happening in the GC process. You have EAD, you can file AC21 for a new job - so why wait. I have personally known a person who was denied a bonus and promotion because the company thought that the person is "not a flight risk" since the person does not have a GC. It is all too common.

BTW - I do think that PD for EB2-I will cross Dec 2008 by the end of this FY (i.e by Oct 2014).

Hi qesehmk,
I am a frequent visitor to this forum and I like the detailed analysis and forecast provided by you and your colleagues. Usually I am not affected by visa bulletin retrogression as I have a steady job and love what I am doing. But this retrogression in this visa bulletin has left me worried about my career and future. I haven't had a promotion in quite a while and I think not having a GC is one of the reasons. I have started looking at other opportunities and planning to switch using my EAD. Having said that do you think there are chances the dates might move to Dec 2008 and beyond in july 2014. Would appreciate your response.

[anasha1721]

Thanks for your response imdeng.

It almost never makes sense to delay what you need to do for your career because of what is happening in the GC process. You have EAD, you can file AC21 for a new job - so why wait. I have personally known a person who was denied a bonus and promotion because the company thought that the person is "not a flight risk" since the person does not have a GC. It is all too common.

BTW - I do think that PD for EB2-I will cross Dec 2008 by the end of this FY (i.e by Oct 2014).

[amulchandra]

A big thank you to all the gurus who share all the analysis and insights about PD movements.
Can one of you predict the net reduction in the known EB3 I pending inventory before the end of FY2014 which includes portings, SO and stipulated visa allocation to EB3 I.
Last year it was around 14000 visas. Can we expect the same or more in 2014?

Thank you very much in advance

Amul

[anasha1721]

I am one such person. I left with my EAD. My manager was shocked and offered me a 30% raise on the spot. I declined politely and left on good terms. The opportunities I have had since I left are amazing and I can see my career has been fast tracked - I joined a small and dynamic firm at a substantially higher pay, greater responsibility and great career advancement options. I always had a super steady job but I saw that the raises were progressively reducing, my responsibilities were not expanding, and my title was going through meaningless "senior", "senior II" and "senior III" progressions. It was not bad, but that party wouldn't last forever. Once you hit your 40s, you are on the chopping block unless you have ascended high enough to be a decision maker. Always remember that.

I have always viewed the EAD as a GC. Of course it has to have that "same or similar" thing with it. Eventually, I want to change my career completely by doing something new, but that time is not now, and I am thankful for what the EAD did to me (and to my spouse too).

I would go as far as and say this: Even if you jeopardize your GC, bite the bullet and do the right thing. Take the job with the best long term prospects. Your PD is locked. You can always start the whole thing again. If you waste your precious productive years waiting for the GC in your company, you might find it is too late to change.

Good luck,

I think this makes sense. Thanks for posting.

[imdeng]

Last year seems to be a special case - perhaps some of EB3-ROW numbers moved to EB3-I since there weren't enough documantarily qualified candidates by the end of FY to finish the quota. That should not happen any more with EB3-ROW in 2011 and perhaps further movements in coming months. So EB3-I should go back to its steady average of the inventory declining by about 6K per year.

A big thank you to all the gurus who share all the analysis and insights about PD movements.
Can one of you predict the net reduction in the known EB3 I pending inventory before the end of FY2014 which includes portings, SO and stipulated visa allocation to EB3 I.
Last year it was around 14000 visas. Can we expect the same or more in 2014?

Thank you very much in advance

Amul

[imdeng]

Entirely agree SportsFan. Also - did your post count get reset or something - I see 59 there and it should be in several hundreds - I have been reading your posts for quite some time now. Or are there multiple SportsFans around??

I am one such person. I left with my EAD. My manager was shocked and offered me a 30% raise on the spot. I declined politely and left on good terms. The opportunities I have had since I left are amazing and I can see my career has been fast tracked - I joined a small and dynamic firm at a substantially higher pay, greater responsibility and great career advancement options. I always had a super steady job but I saw that the raises were progressively reducing, my responsibilities were not expanding, and my title was going through meaningless "senior", "senior II" and "senior III" progressions. It was not bad, but that party wouldn't last forever. Once you hit your 40s, you are on the chopping block unless you have ascended high enough to be a decision maker. Always remember that.

I have always viewed the EAD as a GC. Of course it has to have that "same or similar" thing with it. Eventually, I want to change my career completely by doing something new, but that time is not now, and I am thankful for what the EAD did to me (and to my spouse too).

I would go as far as and say this: Even if you jeopardize your GC, bite the bullet and do the right thing. Take the job with the best long term prospects. Your PD is locked. You can always start the whole thing again. If you waste your precious productive years waiting for the GC in your company, you might find it is too late to change.

Good luck,

[vizcard]

I am one such person. I left with my EAD. My manager was shocked and offered me a 30% raise on the spot. I declined politely and left on good terms. The opportunities I have had since I left are amazing and I can see my career has been fast tracked - I joined a small and dynamic firm at a substantially higher pay, greater responsibility and great career advancement options. I always had a super steady job but I saw that the raises were progressively reducing, my responsibilities were not expanding, and my title was going through meaningless "senior", "senior II" and "senior III" progressions. It was not bad, but that party wouldn't last forever. Once you hit your 40s, you are on the chopping block unless you have ascended high enough to be a decision maker. Always remember that.

I have always viewed the EAD as a GC. Of course it has to have that "same or similar" thing with it. Eventually, I want to change my career completely by doing something new, but that time is not now, and I am thankful for what the EAD did to me (and to my spouse too).

I would go as far as and say this: Even if you jeopardize your GC, bite the bullet and do the right thing. Take the job with the best long term prospects. Your PD is locked. You can always start the whole thing again. If you waste your precious productive years waiting for the GC in your company, you might find it is too late to change.

Good luck,

The irony is that the "same or similar" thing is what's keeping me in my current job. I work in management consulting and the only reason for me to change jobs would be to get something that doesn't need me to travel so much. But the "same or similar" clause makes it tricky. Can't wait for summer 2014.

[qesehmk]

That's quite painful. Especially so if one has kids.

The irony is that the "same or similar" thing is what's keeping me in my current job. I work in management consulting and the only reason for me to change jobs would be to get something that doesn't need me to travel so much. But the "same or similar" clause makes it tricky. Can't wait for summer 2014.

[qriousjunta]

I agree, consulting can get brutal sometimes. Well, all of this will end by August 2014 for you.

I wonder if AC21 was designed for situations like ours (retrogression for years). It's just a vague law. We play on the same side of it, although I wonder if someone had a slightly different experience "stretching the same or similar boundary a tad too much" and getting away with it.

Guys, guys wait i hear my echo H1B waiting for GC , could not move job, sick with the current long time job , hard to make decisions because have to consider kids.
All makes life harder, but personally thinking deeper in detail, do not know if giving up and leaving the country would buy any peace. The green on the other side is mostly a mirage. On the whole this waiting for PD is a vanavasam.

[shrithrj]

Hi, My PD is Oct 2007 with EB3 approved I-140., but I am waiting for Eb2 PERM approval so i can port it. When Can I expect that dates will be back to Oct 2007 again? My h1 (8th year) is expiring in Oct 2014. Orginally i thought these dates will not change ,so once my Eb2 Perm is approved i can go for I-140 , EAD, 485 bla bla... but now i am concerned if i have to file another h1 extension ? Any idea what would the best ?

[Jagan01]

Hi, My PD is Oct 2007 with EB3 approved I-140., but I am waiting for Eb2 PERM approval so i can port it. When Can I expect that dates will be back to Oct 2007 again? My h1 (8th year) is expiring in Oct 2014. Orginally i thought these dates will not change ,so once my Eb2 Perm is approved i can go for I-140 , EAD, 485 bla bla... but now i am concerned if i have to file another h1 extension ? Any idea what would the best ?

You should be current kin July 2014.

[shrithrj]

Thanks for responding. If it is current, should i Still go for H1 Extension or file for EAD? As my H1 expires in Oct 2014, Can i Wait till Sep and file H1?

[vizcard]

Thanks for responding. If it is current, should i Still go for H1 Extension or file for EAD? As my H1 expires in Oct 2014, Can i Wait till Sep and file H1?

You don't NEED to go for an extension. You can always switch to the EAD assuming you keep it valid constantly. I have both H1 and EAD because my company pays for it. So at that point its a financial decision. As for timing, I think if you get a receipt notice you are ok. So basically you would need to file early in Sept rather than later.

[qesehmk]

It's always a good idea to be on H1 even while 485 is pending. Because in case 485 is denied then without H1 you are out of status immediately.

Thanks for responding. If it is current, should i Still go for H1 Extension or file for EAD? As my H1 expires in Oct 2014, Can i Wait till Sep and file H1?

[tomhagen]

It is always suggestible to keep H1 valid till your 485 is approved. For some reason if your 485 ended up in trouble you will be immediately out of status. So insist your employer for H1 extn. He/She may or may not agree because it is more money for them. However for safety reason you should always get your H1 extension.

Coming to filing the extension, once you get the receipt number you can be country waiting for the decision for 254 days. Hence choose a date/month which will keep you in the safe boundary. If you feel sept is better for it, you can do it in sept. However just make sure you get the receipt number before your current H1 is expired.

[seattlet]

Can any one of our gurus explain where the visa numbers for all EB2 I approvals in Nov came from. Is there a way to logically explain it ?
I got my green card yesterday but I wasnt expecting it at all since usually when DOS retrogresses severely, the visa numbers become internally unavailable within days ?

[shrithrj]

I guess they are still processing for Nov 2008 applications. new dates are only effective from Dec.

[tomhagen]

If you look at the demand, inventory numbers, and other factors this is what we can conclude. As every one knows USCIS FY is Oct - Sept. So by end of September visa numbers will get reset. When you look at 2013 scenario it had put enormous pressure on USCIS and DOS not to waste the visa numbers. So considering there will be possible FB to EB spill over and other factors what they did is they consumed yearly quota (2800) in Oct, Nov itself. That is from where these approvals are coming. It is almost imminent that we will have some spill over from FB and other categories in summer. That is when they are going to move the dates forward based on the quantity available at that time. Is it a correct thing to do ? may not be. But USCIS is doing trail and error every year to pick best way to handle

[vizcard]

I can't wait for the next demand data!

[primus]

I got my birth certificate translation done from www.rev.com and I got RFE for that; officer could not find my translated birth certificate. That is lame.

Anyway, I am planning to resend same translation copy, (its a pdf that I printed out). Is it required to send original translation? because rev.com send translation copy with their seal as pdf, but never hard copy.

Is there any other way, anyone can suggest to get translation done in 24 hours? I heard someone said, I can get translation done and get my friend attestation, and that also work?

One more thing, I never had birth certificate, so I got one issued from India in 2007. So issue date is 2007 while I born before way before 1980. So sometime officer gets confused as why issue date is not matching with birth date. Did anyone had such issue? Any help will be appreciated as I want to send this by tomorrow itself to not waste even a single day before Nov. 27th, after that date retrogression will be started
Please help me, if you have any such experince or knowledge. Thanks in advance.