EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[Jagan01]

Got it !
I hope they move the dates as earlier as possible.. ideally(according to me) they should take in all the I-485 applications and issue EADs to all I-140s approved applications, and take their own sweet time approving on a FIFO based on PDs(this will make consular processing more attractive to many as well). Everyone would be happy . Not sure why that is not allowed and what stops them doing that ..
This Wait is ridiculous.
-I read it somewhere that the visa bulletien is released by the DOS and not the USCIS- so many times DOS moves the dates to spite the USCIS for its lack of transparency and inefficiency.. not sure how true is that .. but it is all good for us.

There is a reason that cannot be done.

DOS sets the date. Lets say hypothetically they make dates current as per your suggestion and let everyone get the EAD.

USCIS would then have a candidate set of applications all the way until 2013 that are eligible to get GC. USCIS issues GC to all applicants that are current. Hence FIFO wont be followed. It might be a bigger misery for many (2007/2008) who will have to complete against everyone to get their GC.

[fun4dddd]

There is a reason that cannot be done.

DOS sets the date. Lets say hypothetically they make dates current as per your suggestion and let everyone get the EAD.

USCIS would then have a candidate set of applications all the way until 2013 that are eligible to get GC. USCIS issues GC to all applicants that are current. Hence FIFO wont be followed. It might be a bigger misery for many (2007/2008) who will have to complete against everyone to get their GC.

Nov 13 dd is out
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

[isantem]

Nov 13 dd is out
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

Yes, for the last 30 days

[eb2china]

Any thoughts on EB2 C.How this will be moving forward . Any changes of building inventory .

My PD is June 2010.

[Jagan01]

Any thoughts on EB2 C.How this will be moving forward . Any changes of building inventory .

My PD is June 2010.

Can you convert to EB3?

[geevikram]

Any thoughts on EB2 C.How this will be moving forward . Any changes of building inventory .

My PD is June 2010.

Seriously, you are better off porting down to EB3.

[Jagan01]

Is there anyone on this forum that is current, and not a first time filer (filers in Aug-Sep 2013), and is still pending ?

It looks like approvals coming only for first time filers. Makes me think that the original EB2 candidates have all gotten their GC

[tomhagen]

I am not first time filer and my date is not even current .. However I am active user in trackitt and other forums. Your observation is correct. From last 15 days I am observing most of the approvals for first time filers and very few porting cases. Still a small percentage from 2006, 2007 EB2 waiting for GC but I doubt the cleanliness of the paper work in those cases.

[gclabor07]

Yes, that's my observation too. I'm a November 2011 filer with a July 2007 PD. Mine was approved in August. My wife got BC RFE. It is pending in RFE Response Review since 8/28. I opened up a SR on 10/28 after 60 days. But, no movement so far. Don't know if she will make it this time.

Is there anyone on this forum that is current, and not a first time filer (filers in Aug-Sep 2013), and is still pending ?

It looks like approvals coming only for first time filers. Makes me think that the original EB2 candidates have all gotten their GC

[Maksimus]

Is there anyone on this forum that is current, and not a first time filer (filers in Aug-Sep 2013), and is still pending ?

It looks like approvals coming only for first time filers. Makes me think that the original EB2 candidates have all gotten their GC

I'm right here waiting! :-( And I know a few fellow Dec 2011 and Jan 2012 filers who are still waiting...

[geevikram]

I'm right here waiting! :-( And I know a few fellow Dec 2011 and Jan 2012 filers who are still waiting...

Waiting 07/03/2008...

[dorais]

Just to clarify, your priority date of July/03/2008 is not current yet. Are there any other direct EB2-I, who are current now and have filed in 2011/2012 still waiting?

Waiting 07/03/2008...

[satwgl]

my PD is Oct 2008 and applied I485 in Jan 2012.

[qesehmk]

Header updated.

[Jagan01]

Header updated.

Thanks for the update Q.

[imdeng]

I don't there is any chance of building inventory anytime soon since EB2C is not likely to receive any spillover as EB2C is running ahead of EB2I. Without spillover, EB2C will move only with the regular quota - so a steady forward movement of about a month in each VB should be expected but no major jumps. June 2010 might take quite some time to reach.

Any thoughts on EB2 C.How this will be moving forward . Any changes of building inventory .

My PD is June 2010.

[Jagan01]

Looks like most of the original filers are now approved. I do not see even a single original filer getting approved this week on trackitt. There might be very very very few left.

Also, only one approval for interfiler this week on trackitt. That also indicates that most of the interfilers are also done and have their approvals. Again very few might be left.

Here is what I see in trackitt for Oct and Nov approvals.

Original filer --> 250
First time filers --> 165
Interfilers --> 110
Total --> 425

I was trying to figure out the difference in DD and I-485 inventory and talked to Matt on trackitt. Below is what I learned.
It is important to notice the difference between the I-485 inventory (Oct 01) and DD (Oct 07). I believe here is what has happened.

1. DOS allotted visas to the remaining "original applicants" on Oct 01, 2013 from FY 2014 quota. These are shown as pending as per the Oct 01 I-485 inventory report. I am suspecting this number to be 2000.
2. USCIS started accepting the first time filers and they started showing up as pending in the I-485 inventory. I am suspecting this number to be 3000.

The above two points show the difference in the DD and I-485 inventory. 5000 is approximately the number that I-485 inventory report is higher by compared to the DD.

Also these numbers translate perfectly to trackitt when we consider that trackitt has a conversion ratio of 13% for approvals and 16.25% for applications filed. Considering these conversion ratios:

Original filer --> 250 (2000)
First time filers --> 165 (1269)
Interfilers --> 110 (864)
Total --> 425 (3269)

If the above numbers are correct then we should see the pending applications before Jan 2009 go up by (3000 - 1269) = 2700. Also 9000 was an approximation and should have actually been 8700 as per July inventory.
If we see that december demand data shows 8700+2700 = 11400 pending applications before Jan 2009 then it should be pretty much in line with this theory.

Can Gurus please comment about trackitt conversion factors. Missing Spec here. It is difficult to predict the conversion factors.

[primus]

I woke up this morning with this e-mail alert and saw USCIS in sender and got excited. But I forgot that I am one of those un-lucky guys who have always been picked out of million candidate to have some issue. Yes, I received an RFE e-mail from TSC.

"On November 8, 2013, we mailed a notice requesting initial evidence in this case. Please follow the instructions on the notice to submit the evidence requested. Meanwhile, processing of this case is on hold until we either receive the evidence or the opportunity to submit it expires. Once you submit the evidence requested and a decision is made, you will be notified by mail. If you move while this case is pending, please use our Change of Address online tool to update your case with your new address or call our customer service center at 1-800-375-5283."

I don't know when my journey will end. My priority date is Sep 2006 with direct EB2. First time filer on Aug 1st '13. Even my EAD was approved on 92nd (Oct 1st) day. Is there anyway to know what that RFE has been issued for me (what do i need to provide?), because I don't want to wait one week to get postal mail and then start to work upon it.

Question1: So I should now safely assume that even if I reply back to my RFE in 2 days within getting the RFE, my case will now be pushed back and cannot be considered within this month...right? Usually when/how USCIS re-start processing RFE cases?

Question2: Does my RFE have any affect on my wife and daughter's I-485 processing (I am primary)? Will their processing will be put on hold?


I am so frustrated now with humiliating life at work every day and being sucked, because they know I cannot leave them unless I get my looooong pending GC.

I would appreciate if gurus or anyone who has experienced RFE case and can reply to my above question. Thank you in advance.

[qesehmk]

If it is not too personal Primus - what is the RFE about?

As per your question #1 - I think if you respond their RFE resolution needs to happen first before they can adjudicate the case and allocate visa.
As per #2 - Technically I am not aware of any legal requirement that primary applicant be approved prior to beneficiaries being approved. However, given that beneficiaries are beneficiaries off of primary, I think USCIS will not approve their cases prior to yours.

I woke up this morning with this e-mail alert and saw USCIS in sender and got excited. But I forgot that I am one of those un-lucky guys who have always been picked out of million candidate to have some issue. Yes, I received an RFE e-mail from TSC.

"On November 8, 2013, we mailed a notice requesting initial evidence in this case. Please follow the instructions on the notice to submit the evidence requested. Meanwhile, processing of this case is on hold until we either receive the evidence or the opportunity to submit it expires. Once you submit the evidence requested and a decision is made, you will be notified by mail. If you move while this case is pending, please use our Change of Address online tool to update your case with your new address or call our customer service center at 1-800-375-5283."

I don't know when my journey will end. My priority date is Sep 2006 with direct EB2. First time filer on Aug 1st '13. Even my EAD was approved on 92nd (Oct 1st) day. Is there anyway to know what that RFE has been issued for me (what do i need to provide?), because I don't want to wait one week to get postal mail and then start to work upon it.

Question1: So I should now safely assume that even if I reply back to my RFE in 2 days within getting the RFE, my case will now be pushed back and cannot be considered within this month...right? Usually when/how USCIS re-start processing RFE cases?

Question2: Does my RFE have any affect on my wife and daughter's I-485 processing (I am primary)? Will their processing will be put on hold?


I am so frustrated now with humiliating life at work every day and being sucked, because they know I cannot leave them unless I get my looooong pending GC.

I would appreciate if gurus or anyone who has experienced RFE case and can reply to my above question. Thank you in advance.

[tomhagen]

I hear you but don't get discouraged. There are several other people to share your pain. For example guys who doesn't have any client letters are getting 3 years extension and the ones who has client letters is getting extension for only that period even though their 140 is approved. And you know the scenario now. If you apply for extension in regular processing you will never hear (before 6 months with VSC). So one has to shell out $ 1225 for premium processing.

But you should be happy for one thing. You are first time filer and your file is being actively looked at. There are couple of unlucky folks who got struck this retrogression mess.

Question1: So I should now safely assume that even if I reply back to my RFE in 2 days within getting the RFE, my case will now be pushed back and cannot be considered within this month...right? Usually when/how USCIS re-start processing RFE cases?

Tom : First suggestion. Don't be in hurry. When you get an RFE you will have 87 days to respond back. I am NOT saying that wait till 85 days and respond but responding back in 2 days might put you on the spot again. Couple of things you need to look for.

1. Birth Certificate : Ask yourself following questions.
Is every thing fine with birth certificate ?
When was birth registered ? Is it late like an year after you were born ?
If you don't have the BC, take a look at the affidavits one more time.

2. Medicals : You need the following medicals
Initial Physical 18-39 - Code : 99385
Tine/PPD - Code: 86580
Syphilis Serology - Code:86592
ICD-9 - V70.0
Vaccination Varivax (chicken pox) - Code : 90716
Immunization Admn - Code : 90472

For your daughter
Initial Physical 5-11 - Code : 99383
Tine/PPD - Code: 86580 (same as above)
ICD-9 - V20.2

Also some times they will ask for simple things like flu vaccination.

Also some times doctors miss one or two tests and they will ask for it.

Considering approvals are slowed down considerably and USCIS will not have much on 485 front your RFE response should be taken up immediately. However it is not in any body's control except the IO who is looking in to your case.

3. EVL - Since your priority date is 2006, USCIS wants to make sure that your future position is still valid and open.

These are some trivial things. Don't get discouraged and you will be alright.

Question2: Does my RFE have any affect on my wife and daughter's I-485 processing (I am primary)? Will their processing will be put on hold?

Tom : Nope. It will not have any impact.

[primus]

I hear you but don't get discouraged. There are several other people to share your pain. For example guys who doesn't have any client letters are getting 3 years extension and the ones who has client letters is getting extension for only that period even though their 140 is approved. And you know the scenario now. If you apply for extension in regular processing you will never hear (before 6 months with VSC). So one has to shell out $ 1225 for premium processing.

But you should be happy for one thing. You are first time filer and your file is being actively looked at. There are couple of unlucky folks who got struck this retrogression mess.

Question1: So I should now safely assume that even if I reply back to my RFE in 2 days within getting the RFE, my case will now be pushed back and cannot be considered within this month...right? Usually when/how USCIS re-start processing RFE cases?

Tom : First suggestion. Don't be in hurry. When you get an RFE you will have 87 days to respond back. I am NOT saying that wait till 85 days and respond but responding back in 2 days might put you on the spot again. Couple of things you need to look for.

1. Birth Certificate : Ask yourself following questions.
Is every thing fine with birth certificate ?
When was birth registered ? Is it late like an year after you were born ?
If you don't have the BC, take a look at the affidavits one more time.

2. Medicals : You need the following medicals
Initial Physical 18-39 - Code : 99385
Tine/PPD - Code: 86580
Syphilis Serology - Code:86592
ICD-9 - V70.0
Vaccination Varivax (chicken pox) - Code : 90716
Immunization Admn - Code : 90472

For your daughter
Initial Physical 5-11 - Code : 99383
Tine/PPD - Code: 86580 (same as above)
ICD-9 - V20.2

Also some times they will ask for simple things like flu vaccination.

Also some times doctors miss one or two tests and they will ask for it.

Considering approvals are slowed down considerably and USCIS will not have much on 485 front your RFE response should be taken up immediately. However it is not in any body's control except the IO who is looking in to your case.

3. EVL - Since your priority date is 2006, USCIS wants to make sure that your future position is still valid and open.

These are some trivial things. Don't get discouraged and you will be alright.

Question2: Does my RFE have any affect on my wife and daughter's I-485 processing (I am primary)? Will their processing will be put on hold?

Tom : Nope. It will not have any impact.

Thank you tomhagen for a detailed reply. Very much appreciated. Though few things:

In first time filing, I have attached EVL and that is from my new employer for whom I have been working since 2011. And they have sponsored my GC. But I am retaining my previous employer priority date i.e Sept 2006. And I have always worked as full time employee (never done contracting).

I just called up USCIS and talked to L1 officer, he said since I am primary so my wife and daughter's application is based upon my application so they will not be processed, until mine get cleared. In above comment, qesehmk also said the same thing. My medical and DOB certificates all are fine, not sure what this REF is for. Someone said, TSC being notorious sometime, in order to claim that they process application in 4 months, so near the end of 4 months, they send RFE intentionally. Transparency is laking as how they work. In fact they should process application based on PD, but there are several cases where that does not seem true.

[tomhagen]

Well.. sorry for not being clear for second question answer. When i said they will not have any impact means your RFE shouldn't impact them. They will not get RFE based on yours.

It is quite common that even if you provide the documents USCIS will ask some times. Reason being is it is misplaced in the process. If you have time and chance read the Adjudication officer's field manual. It clearly mentioned the process they follow when they get the document packet.

So just wait for to receive the physical RFE copy. Don't worry every thing will be alright

[primus]

Well.. sorry for not being clear for second question answer. When i said they will not have any impact means your RFE shouldn't impact them. They will not get RFE based on yours.

It is quite common that even if you provide the documents USCIS will ask some times. Reason being is it is misplaced in the process. If you have time and chance read the Adjudication officer's field manual. It clearly mentioned the process they follow when they get the document packet.

So just wait for to receive the physical RFE copy. Don't worry every thing will be alright

Captain Phillips' Muse said 'Hey Irish-everything gonna be ok!'

[rajamp]

Dec '13 bulletin released. Party over for the next 6 months

India EB2 moved back to 15NOV04
Eb3 China is almost 3-year more advanced than Eb2 China.

EB2 China 08NOV08
EB3 China 01OCT11

EB2 India 15NOV04
EB3 India 01SEP03

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_6211.html

[qesehmk]

Thanks Rajamp.

The VB was almost uneventful and no surprise whatsoever. It is a good thing and Visa Office must be commended for that.

The retrogression only emphasizes that EB3s are converting in drove and so the pressure on EB2 will continue to remain so. However as usual the year end will come with unused visas and dates will move forward. So EB2Is don't need to be overly concerned.

EB3I dates didnt retrogress. The 485 inventory shows why. EB3C dates are really ironic. It only shows how irrelevant this quota system has become where relativly high skilled workers are backlogged and relatively low skilled categories are moving forward.

As per EB-I folks. .... now just wait and watch through the rest of the year. As NVC and prior year data comes in - there will be some better insights.

Dec '13 bulletin released. Party over for the next 6 months

India EB2 moved back to 15NOV04
Eb3 China is almost 3-year more advanced than Eb2 China.

EB2 China 08NOV08
EB3 China 01OCT11

EB2 India 15NOV04
EB3 India 01SEP03

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_6211.html