EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[justvisiting]

Lot of the EB2 row candidates are either direct hires and company transfers like L1. Also many use other category of visa and just like many I&C use lawyers to file for labor and concurrently for 140/485. Within months most are free to work without any problems.

USCIS approved 262.5K H1B petitions in FY 2012, 137K (52%) where for initial employment. Note that 2012 was the first FY in which initial employment increased, likely reflecting the reduced number of folks having to rebew H1Bs after their GCs were approved in FY2012. Of the initial employemnt H1Bs, 39K were for countries other than India and China. If you use the standard 2.2 factor converting H1Bs to Green Cards (because you have to account for spouses and children), that would yield 86K green cards for ROW alone. This is without considering L1 visas.

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...cteristics.pdf

[swathi]

I-485 Employment-Based Inventory Statistics updated (PDF file - updated October 1, 2013)
http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...er_01-2013.pdf

[justvisiting]

I-485 Employment-Based Inventory Statistics updated (PDF file - updated October 1, 2013)
http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...er_01-2013.pdf

Wow... the PERM slowdown is evident. More EB1 than EB2s pending for 2013. Basically all those EB2 you are seeing after March 2013 are EB2-NIW. This may be the first clue we ever get at the size of NIW, and it looks to be about 300 per month of 3600 a year. (less than 10% of EB2-ROWs)

[Jagan01]

I-485 Employment-Based Inventory Statistics updated (PDF file - updated October 1, 2013)
http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...er_01-2013.pdf

This is bad. The pending inventory shows more applications pending as compared to DD. why do we have this inconsistency ?

[rotikapdaaurgc]

Roughly 32K applications for EB2I, when can we expect dates to move to 2010? Is spillover expected to be in 15K-16K range this year (FY 2014)?

[kd2008]

This is bad. The pending inventory shows more applications pending as compared to DD. why do we have this inconsistency ?

That is a minor detail. The most important conclusion is how low the inventory is for EB3ROW. That means EB3I can move like crazy and in turn reduce pressure on EB2I.

[suninphx]

The most important conclusion is how low the inventory is for EB3ROW. That means EB3I can move like crazy and in turn reduce pressure on EB2I.

kd- good point.

[Jagan01]

That is a minor detail. The most important conclusion is how low the inventory is for EB3ROW. That means EB3I can move like crazy and in turn reduce pressure on EB2I.

Kd2008,

How can that be minor. Below are the pending numbers before jan 2009 according to dd and inventory
DD : 9000
I485 inventory : 13500

In what world can that be minor ?

[bikenlalan]

Kd2008,

How can that be minor. Below are the pending numbers before jan 2009 according to dd and inventory
DD : 9000
I485 inventory : 13500

In what world can that be minor ?

The demand data was published as of 10/07 and the pending inventory is as of 10/01. "All eligible
cases were then allocated Employment-based numbers on October 1, 2013, under the FY 2014 annual limits." ...statement as per demand data.

So the difference in the numbers seems to be cases allocated visa numbers between 10/01 and 10/06.

[dorais]

The increase from 9000 to ~13500 is definitely not minor.

As of 10/07, 9000 cases in DD = Cases that have been pre-adjudicated
As of 10/01, 13500 cases in inventory = Includes both pre-adjudicated cases as well as new cases that are still being processed.

This difference of 4500 could be
1. New EB2I Applicants who missed the boat last time
2. Applicants who ported from EB3 (first time 485 filers)
3. Not sure if EB3 with exisiting 485 who sends interfile letter would be counted.

I am sure that I have not covered all the categories. Could we get some sense of porting numbers from this difference?

This is bad. The pending inventory shows more applications pending as compared to DD. why do we have this inconsistency ?

[Jagan01]

The demand data was published as of 10/07 and the pending inventory is as of 10/01. "All eligible
cases were then allocated Employment-based numbers on October 1, 2013, under the FY 2014 annual limits." ...statement as per demand data.

So the difference in the numbers seems to be cases allocated visa numbers between 10/01 and 10/06.

Are you trying to say that 4500 visas were allocated between Oct 01 and Oct 07 and then gradually the approvals kept coming for the month of Oct. That might be the case.

Assuming that is the case, we already know that 4500 visas from FY 2014 have been consumed. That would be a major bad news.

People were projecting 16k for EB2I for FY2014. With 4.5k gone, we are left with 11.5k.

Even from DD we know that 9k left before Jan 2009. Add the porting to it... Since CO mentioned 800 ported in Oct and (assuming another 700 potential in Nov).... So 1.5k for porting...

Demand = 9k + 1.5k = 10.5k pre Jan 2009.
Supply = 11.5k

With those numbers Dec 2008 looks reachable but not much hope for post Jan 2009...

[imdeng]

A good portion of H1Bs return home and don't get in the GC queue. Anecdotal evidence - I know of several South Korean and Chinese folks who decided to return after a few years of working. Look at what is happening to EB2C and EB3C - the density is very sparse.

USCIS approved 262.5K H1B petitions in FY 2012, 137K (52%) where for initial employment. Note that 2012 was the first FY in which initial employment increased, likely reflecting the reduced number of folks having to rebew H1Bs after their GCs were approved in FY2012. Of the initial employemnt H1Bs, 39K were for countries other than India and China. If you use the standard 2.2 factor converting H1Bs to Green Cards (because you have to account for spouses and children), that would yield 86K green cards for ROW alone. This is without considering L1 visas.

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...cteristics.pdf

[imdeng]

I agree. No idea what is happening with EB3. DoS opened the floodgate after so many years and waiting and nobody seems to be biting. It seems to be long way out - but we might reach a situation when EB3 is C for everyone except EB3I and then EB3I will get the same kind of horizontal spillover that EB2I has been getting. EB2I is getting thinned by porting to EB2I anyway - so even a relatively low number will go a long way in moving EB3I.

This might also have some positive impact on EB2 by stopping EB3ROW upgrades and directing some traffice from EB2ROW to EB3ROW.

That is a minor detail. The most important conclusion is how low the inventory is for EB3ROW. That means EB3I can move like crazy and in turn reduce pressure on EB2I.

[Jagan01]

I'm not sure if this has been commented upon, the DOS Visa Office is estimating 150K visas for EB in FY-2014, likely because of 10K left over visas from FB in FY-2013.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_...cal_Limits.pdf

Thanks for posting this...

[Techsavvy1973]

Happy Diwali to everyone!!

We were afraid that we will drop into the december retrogression blackhole, but we got our cards on Saturday (Nov 2nd).

PD: Feb 6, 2008
RD: Jan 25, 2012
Approval Date: Oct 25, 2013
Case: EB2I-NSC

Opened SRs, Ombudsman case, case with Senator's office - Senator's office probably helped the most.

Thanks for the great work on this forum!! Best wishes to everyone.

[trackright]

All Guru's
http://immigration-law.com/ posted a message that EB-5 China has only 45 for FY14.

FY14 Annual Numerical Limits http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_...cal_Limits.pdf does show only 45 available for china because of Chinese Student Protection Act. Does that mean 45 is the Quota and will be allocated more numbers(if there is no demand from other countries) in the last quarter Or 45 visas is the Limit and that's all they get in FY14?

[inspired_p]

I am in need of a prediction from you guys.

My priority date is End of Oct 2010 (consider 1st Nov 2010) EB2 - India .

When will I be able to apply for I-485/ EAD. I am not really concerned with the actual Green card been issued, or it getting retrogressed again- all i want is to get an EAD for my spouse as soon as possible.

What are your predictions?
Gurus ?

Regards

[qesehmk]

Practically it won't impact china because they will eventually get all the numbers they need as spillover from EB5ROW. But thanks for pointing this out!

All Guru's
http://immigration-law.com/ posted a message that EB-5 China has only 45 for FY14.

FY14 Annual Numerical Limits http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_...cal_Limits.pdf does show only 45 available for china because of Chinese Student Protection Act. Does that mean 45 is the Quota and will be allocated more numbers(if there is no demand from other countries) in the last quarter Or 45 visas is the Limit and that's all they get in FY14?

[Jagan01]

I am in need of a prediction from you guys.

My priority date is End of Oct 2010 (consider 1st Nov 2010) EB2 - India .

When will I be able to apply for I-485/ EAD. I am not really concerned with the actual Green card been issued, or it getting retrogressed again- all i want is to get an EAD for my spouse as soon as possible.

What are your predictions?
Gurus ?

Regards

Inspired,

I can understand your situation and most of us have been in similar situation in the past.

Oct 2010 should be current in FY2016. So you should be able to apply for EAD in Aug - Sep 2016. I hate to be a bearer of bad news but FY2016 is the earliest according to me.

Of course if CIR comes through then its a different story.

[qriousjunta]

Inspired,

I can understand your situation and most of us have been in similar situation in the past.

Oct 2010 should be current in FY2016. So you should be able to apply for EAD in Aug - Sep 2016. I hate to be a bearer of bad news but FY2016 is the earliest according to me.

Of course if CIR comes through then its a different story.

I am on the same boat, i do need EAD too, but before that i want a job with my PD(June 2010). My guess is June 2015, we all should be eligible to apply for EAD.

[Jagan01]

I am on the same boat, i do need EAD too, but before that i want a job with my PD(June 2010). My guess is June 2015, we all should be eligible to apply for EAD.

It is good to be optimistic. However, if you are asking this question based on thinking about a job change, I would say you can go for the job change and apply new PERM and I-140 and retain date.

Some people do not change jobs thinking that they will get EAD in FY 2015. Please do not place your career on the assumption that you would get EAD in FY2015.

You need to check the demand and supply.

Currently there are 27000 applicants before Jan 2010 (check the latest i-485 inventory). You should count at least 5000 additional porters that will come in by the end of FY2014. So a total of 32000 before Jan 2010.
To be realistic, I would expect 16000 per year and hence FY2015 should cover Jan-Mar 2010.

The good news would be that they would have to build up inventory at some point of time. I would think that year would be FY2016. There is good chance of dates jumping in FY2016 by more than a year.

[inspired_p]

Thank you for your prediction. But to be optimistic, say there are 27000 applications till Jan 2010 and 32000 visas to be filed up till YR 2015 ; that does not stop them to move the dates ahead of time. Many times in the past the date movement have been done to get more applications even though there was enough inventory. YR 2014 is unlikely; but I was hoping against hope that PDs will move in YR 2015 when there is only 11000 applications waiting (27K-16K of YR 2014) and porting being unknown as always.

Why would the PDs not move at the end of the year 2015 (June - Sept 2015) as they have done historically at end of every year - and retrogress again when they have again have around 30K applications to work on.

I am not trying to answer my own question - but your reply made me start thinking if the PDs actually move in the linear fashion that you mentioned (i.e. number applications on file vs number of visas available).

--Regards

It is good to be optimistic. However, if you are asking this question based on thinking about a job change, I would say you can go for the job change and apply new PERM and I-140 and retain date.

Some people do not change jobs thinking that they will get EAD in FY 2015. Please do not place your career on the assumption that you would get EAD in FY2015.

You need to check the demand and supply.

Currently there are 27000 applicants before Jan 2010 (check the latest i-485 inventory). You should count at least 5000 additional porters that will come in by the end of FY2014. So a total of 32000 before Jan 2010.
To be realistic, I would expect 16000 per year and hence FY2015 should cover Jan-Mar 2010.

The good news would be that they would have to build up inventory at some point of time. I would think that year would be FY2016. There is good chance of dates jumping in FY2016 by more than a year.

[girish989]

Thank you for your prediction. But to be optimistic, say there are 27000 applications till Jan 2010 and 32000 visas to be filed up till YR 2015 ; that does not stop them to move the dates ahead of time. Many times in the past the date movement have been done to get more applications even though there was enough inventory. YR 2014 is unlikely; but I was hoping against hope that PDs will move in YR 2015 when there is only 11000 applications waiting (27K-16K of YR 2014) and porting being unknown as always.

Why would the PDs not move at the end of the year 2015 (June - Sept 2015) as they have done historically at end of every year - and retrogress again when they have again have around 30K applications to work on.

I am not trying to answer my own question - but your reply made me start thinking if the PDs actually move in the linear fashion that you mentioned (i.e. number applications on file vs number of visas available).

--Regards

God bless these : boom and bust cycles ... all we need is current boom cycle to end and all 2010 folks would be in ....

[Jagan01]

Thank you for your prediction. But to be optimistic, say there are 27000 applications till Jan 2010 and 32000 visas to be filed up till YR 2015 ; that does not stop them to move the dates ahead of time. Many times in the past the date movement have been done to get more applications even though there was enough inventory. YR 2014 is unlikely; but I was hoping against hope that PDs will move in YR 2015 when there is only 11000 applications waiting (27K-16K of YR 2014) and porting being unknown as always.

Why would the PDs not move at the end of the year 2015 (June - Sept 2015) as they have done historically at end of every year - and retrogress again when they have again have around 30K applications to work on.

I am not trying to answer my own question - but your reply made me start thinking if the PDs actually move in the linear fashion that you mentioned (i.e. number applications on file vs number of visas available).

--Regards

I never said they move in a linear fashion. If you read my post, I did say that FY2016 will be the year when they will try to build up the inventory. The only difference between what you say and what I say is the selection of the year when they will build inventory.

You are assuming 0 porting from EB3 to EB2 in the end of FY 2014. Believe me that is not true. Lets assume that dates will move to Mar 2009 by end of FY 2014. There will be several porters from June 2008 - Mar 2009 that will tag along into the inventory. Plus there will be porters from Jan 2005 - June 2008 (very low number but not zero). This total porting number will at least be 5000.

USCIS does buikd inventory only when it thinks that the total annual supply wont be met by total annual demand. 30k is not written anywhere.

We have only calculated upto Jan 2010. USCIS has another 5k pending already in 2010.

[inspired_p]

Got it !
I hope they move the dates as earlier as possible.. ideally(according to me) they should take in all the I-485 applications and issue EADs to all I-140s approved applications, and take their own sweet time approving on a FIFO based on PDs(this will make consular processing more attractive to many as well). Everyone would be happy . Not sure why that is not allowed and what stops them doing that ..
This Wait is ridiculous.
-I read it somewhere that the visa bulletien is released by the DOS and not the USCIS- so many times DOS moves the dates to spite the USCIS for its lack of transparency and inefficiency.. not sure how true is that .. but it is all good for us.

I never said they move in a linear fashion. If you read my post, I did say that FY2016 will be the year when they will try to build up the inventory. The only difference between what you say and what I say is the selection of the year when they will build inventory.

You are assuming 0 porting from EB3 to EB2 in the end of FY 2014. Believe me that is not true. Lets assume that dates will move to Mar 2009 by end of FY 2014. There will be several porters from June 2008 - Mar 2009 that will tag along into the inventory. Plus there will be porters from Jan 2005 - June 2008 (very low number but not zero). This total porting number will at least be 5000.

USCIS does buikd inventory only when it thinks that the total annual supply wont be met by total annual demand. 30k is not written anywhere.

We have only calculated upto Jan 2010. USCIS has another 5k pending already in 2010.