Q any idea whether there will be internal retrogression before end of november ?Originally Posted by qesehmk
Q any idea whether there will be internal retrogression before end of november ?
Seattlet that's going to reach quite quickly right? It's only ~300 visas per month for EB2I. The reason there was no retrogression for Oct Nov because there is no data on which CO can make that decision. Already at end of Oct he is seeing the data and announced (informally I assume) that there will be retrogression.
However as far as this guy goes - his PD is 2006. What's the chance that there are 300 applications before him? I would put that quite minimal - even if porting is happening heavy. But as per your question - yes indeed there is going to be an "internal retrogression" ( to use your term) pretty quickly in November.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
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Q, I kinda disagree with you here (though, I wish you were right): I believe PD and RD don't play any role as when my case will be given and processed by adjudicating officer. Because in trackitt, there are several first time filers (on 8/1/13), who have PD much after 2006 (~2008) and their cases have been approved. So its pure LUCK.
Primus - I didn't mean to give you any hope against your hope!!!
But I can say a few things with certainty and then there are things that only somebody with an insider information can tell you - which I clearly do not have.
1. Among all the cases that are ready for a visa - the visa allocation by law - must happen by PD for a specific country within a specific category. Period. There is no doubt about the law. I would bet with quite a bit of high certainty that Visa Office tries to abide by the law. There may be one off exceptions but I wouldn't bet on that.
2. When among a specific country and category - cases with later PDs are processed than cases with prior PDs - it means only one and one thing to me - that cases with prior PDs were not ready to be assigned a visa.
As per your case - I can't predict what will happen. But for an average case like yours - I think it has a very good chance it will get approved in November.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
I just saw Matt's prediction update on the trackitt website.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...rive_web#gid=4
Matt,
we miss seeing your posts on this forum... Thanks for the update...
I have updated the header with general information. Throughout the year, I will update it only at a trend level. As I have said many times, I have stopped doing manual calculations. So please pardon me if there is an expectation of specific numbers. But I will keep commenting on key events and update the header.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Just an update on trackitt approvals..
Oct 2013 Approvals:
Total --> 329
First time filers --> 102
The % of first time filers has gone up. 50 out of the first 200 were first time filers. 52 out of the next 129 were first time filers.
There were 310 first time filers in Aug 2013 according to trackitt. Out of this 102 (30%) have been greened.
Question to Gurus,
When and how does the DD get updated. More specifically, I am trying to figure out the EB3 applications that are pending in the inventory.
For example:
July DD for EB3I:
July 2013
Year --EB3I------InSpecificYear
2004 --9,725-----UNKNOWN
2005 --20,975----11,250
2006 --28,550----7,575
2007 --37,775----9,225
Oct 2013 DD:
Year --EB3I-----InSpecificYear
2004 --2,900----UNKNOWN
2005 --13,600---10,700
2006 --20,550---6,950
2007 --28,975---8,475
People Ported out to EB2I just based on DD:
2005 -- 550 (4.8% ported)
2006 -- 625 (8.2% ported)
2007 -- 750 (8.13% ported)
At what stage does an application move out from EB3I to EB2I?
- After I-140 is approved ?
- After the interfiling request is filed ?
- After the visa is approved under EB2 ?
Also the trend shows that people with later PDs are more inclined to port. Hence we should be expecting higher porting for 2008 cases that have never filed I-485.
The Nov DD will look very interesting as we might see more EB3I numbers go down and EB2I go up. I would revisit the percentage at that time to try and track actual porting percentage. If we do this exercise after Nov and Dec DD then porting percentage would be clearly visible.
I expect it to be around 20% when we revisit this in Dec.
Another update:
Sep 2013 first time filers have also started getting approved. This shows that it is possible for first time filers to get approved within 60 days of filing the petition. Something to watch out for as CO can use this to get better idea of demand every year. If he had advanced the dates in June then he should have had an idea of porting by Aug. He might start adopting it from next year. If so, it will be a bigger concern than ever.
DD is updated every month and generally comes out a day or so before VB. Inventory is usually on a quarterly basis.
11/01/2013: Visa Bureau Reportedly Released Info that EB-2 India Would Retrogress to Either 2004 or 2005 in December Visa Bulletin
AILA has reported that in a conference in DC, Mr. Oppenheim disclosed that EB-2 for India would move backward to either 2004 or 2005 in December 2013 Visa Bulletin. Reportedly, in June 2014, EB-5 Regional Center Investor Visa Cap will reach because of the heavy demand of the investor immigrant visas by Chinese investors.
Source - http://www.immigration-law.com/
I cannot show direct evidence for your doubts, because the answers are spread out in various versions of interviews made with DoS. The following were the essence of those words. You can interpret from them.
1. Demand Data is obtained from the pending list in the Immigrant Visa Allocation Management System (IVAMS)
2. IVAMS allows only one Visa request per Alien Number pending in the system.
3. EB3 to EB2 is converted only when the EB2 PD is current.
4. EB2 visa is allotted only after the pending EB3 request is removed from the IVAMS.
Inventory is maintained by USCIS. Opinions may differ but mine is that Eb3 porters remain as EB3 in the inventory until their visa allocation .
thanks Kanmani.
So according to your understanding, we would not be able to see the complete extent of the EB3-EB2 interfilers until they are actually granted the visa. Basically, even the Jan demand data might not account for interfilers that have been not been approved under EB2.
Jagan,
You have quoted the line in which I have commented (personal opinion) on the inventory maintained by USCIS,
DD is maintained by DoS. The information I have given on DD maintenance is not from my personal opinion or assumption, but it is true .
I am relatively new when compared to Q, Spec, Veni, Teddy, who have been trying for years to find a route to guesstimate the hidden demand of the EB3 porters. They could only approximate the number every year.
Yes, we can NEITHER see the porters demand in the DD when the PD is current ( Like today) NOR see the porters demand when the dates get retrogressed ( after December 1st).
NOTE: NOT all the I-485 applicants are counted in the Demand Data.
When the Priority Date is current, provided if the Visa numbers are not exhausted, any Visa request made with IVAMS straight away goes to the approval mode and because of this setup, the respective applicant cannot be a part of DD.
I'm not sure if this has been commented upon, the DOS Visa Office is estimating 150K visas for EB in FY-2014, likely because of 10K left over visas from FB in FY-2013.
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_...cal_Limits.pdf
Justvisiting - you are the first to post this news. So far on the forum we have been following this - http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf which shows 148K for EB for 2014. So this news you posted improves visa availability by 2K which is a good news for backlogged countries.
My rough guess at this point is that the final number will only increase given how FB FB2-A dates have moved. Most likely there is lots of FB visa spillover from FB to EB this year too.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Everybody on the forum - Happy Diwali and a happy new year to you and your families !!
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Happy Diwali to All
May this new year bring wisdom and peace to all of us....
I received two CPO emails for the I485, one yesterday and another one today saying that card production ordered. First one said card production is ordered on November 2nd and today's email on the said that card production is ordered on Nov 3rd. This is on the same case. Is it normal?
RD 8/6/2013 PD 12/14/2007 TSC
I have a question reg EB2 ROW. When most of H1 B visas are taken up by Indians, How is it that EB2 ROW occupies 35 K visas every year ? or atleast around 30 K
Do ROW folks have other avenues to apply for EB2 without having a work visa ? I know mexicans and canadians have T1, but not sure if they consume 35 K
To everyone - Happy Diwali and I wish all of you a happy new year !
justvisiting - many thanks!
seattlet - That's a valid question. Perhaps it is a combination of three things: 1) A GC can be applied for regardless your current visa status. 2) Not all H1s are given to Indians. 3) There is an H1 quota based on US degrees. So ROW folks who do a bachelors or masters or a PHD may somehow end up getting an H1 through that quota. I believe the quota is 20K per year.
I wouldn't worry about it Joseph. Congratulations!
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Lot of the EB2 row candidates are either direct hires and company transfers like L1. Also many use other category of visa and just like many I&C use lawyers to file for labor and concurrently for 140/485. Within months most are free to work without any problems.
thank you qesehmk..
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