EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[rosharma]

"Mr. Oppenheim suggested that the EB-1 and EB-5 categories are relatively “popular” this year and expects more numbers to be used in these categories, compared to the past years. He cited EB-5 China category where the demand has been growing steadily (approximately 15% over the year before) and that a cutoff date for EB-5 China is possible later this fiscal year (possibly around June 2014). This high demand also means that there will be less “leftover” visa numbers available to allocate to other categories, such as EB-2 India and China which would further contribute to the slow EB-2 India and China forward movement". This piece of statement scares me. So far we have been thinking EB2-I might get more spillovers because of PERM slodowns and government shud-down. I hope Eb2-I would end up getting sizable spillovers in last quarter.

[vizcard]

Thanks for the Update... The dates retrogressing will surely lower porting...

Sports, Viz and other Gururs:
Remember my words. The porting is significantly high. All these extra numbers were porting cases. I also mentioned that this imaginative 400 per month is not true. Below is something directly from CO:
As an example, Mr. Oppenheim cited that between October 1 and October 22nd his office noted that there were approximately 800 Indian nationals who ported from EB-3 to EB-3.

Also spillover is not great from FD (EB5 and EB1 have good demand).

Jagan,

This Eb3 to Eb2 porting numbers could reach the DD only if the priority date is current ( Ref my earlier posts for INA Section quote)

I would say the present high numbers denote the rush for placement in the Eb2 DD queue by the EB3ers. Otherwise, if they miss this opening, they will be stagnated in the USCIS as interfilers.

Jagan,
800 for Oct MTD does not mean 800 per month for the rest of the year. this forum has always estimated porting to be 4000-6000 per year. It will most likely stay that way. As Kanmani points out, it could be ppl just trying to get in the EB2 line before retrogression.

As for the FD, the unused FB will more than cover any additional usage in EB1 and EB5. I fully expect all the unused FB to come to EB2I. so right off the bat we have 12K+ for this year. I have no doubt we'll be able to clear most of 2008 and prior (dates would move further ahead than that)

Like I said before, the inventory and demand data in January will give us the best picture for the year ahead.

[Kanmani]

USCIS Performance Data for 2nd quarter of FY2013 has been published. http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...y2013-qtr2.pdf

Ignore if I am late.

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

With COs latest comment, I don't see how we can get into 2009 let alone end of 2008. Could the dates just come back to June '08 over next summer?

[vizcard]

Thanks for the Update... The dates retrogressing will surely lower porting...

Sports, Viz and other Gururs:
Remember my words. The porting is significantly high. All these extra numbers were porting cases. I also mentioned that this imaginative 400 per month is not true. Below is something directly from CO:
As an example, Mr. Oppenheim cited that between October 1 and October 22nd his office noted that there were approximately 800 Indian nationals who ported from EB-3 to EB-3.

Also spillover is not great from FD (EB5 and EB1 have good demand).

Jagan,

This Eb3 to Eb2 porting numbers could reach the DD only if the priority date is current ( Ref my earlier posts for INA Section quote)

I would say the present high numbers denote the rush for placement in the Eb2 DD queue by the EB3ers. Otherwise, if they miss this opening, they will be stagnated in the USCIS as interfilers.

With COs latest comment, I don't see how we can get into 2009 let alone end of 2008. Could the dates just come back to June '08 over next summer?

Nothing in his comments indicates that we won't get spillover this year. Demand up to Jan 1, 2009 is likely in 14-16K range. With the regular allocation + unused FB, we should be in the 12K range. We will certainly get 3-4K from SOFAD. I don't expect any other category to consume more than their normal quota.

[Pedro Gonzales]

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2013/...tober-23-2013/

EB-2 Rest of World (ROW). This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year; however, Mr. Oppenheim suggested that depending on demand he may introduce a cutoff date towards the end of the fiscal year.
EB-2 India. This is the major headline from our meeting with Mr. Oppenheim – EB-2 India is expected to retrogress significantly – by several years back to late 2005 or early 2005 as early as the next Visa Bulletin. It is expected that EB-2 India will remain at that level (late 2004 or early 2005) until the summer of 2014. The rationale behind this severe retrogression in EB-2 India is that there is simply too much “demand” (number of pending cases caused by I-485 filings and EB-3 to EB-2 porting cases, plus adding dependents) in this category and the Visa Office has to stop the rate of new filings until USCIS and DOS are able to approve the pending cases and “clear the demand.”
.

Not much news in any of these really, other than that EB5 may not give any spillover this year.
About EB2ROW, I think what he is saying is that if the sequester is lifted and the pent up PERM approvals come through, you'll have significant demand that may require a cut off date. I don't realistically see that happening before the next elections.

And the portion I bolded above really calls into question the knowledge of these guys. If you retrogress EB2I dates to stop new filings, you can't approve pent up demand, you can merely pre-adjudicate it. That pent up demand goes into inventory pending dates moving forward again in late 2014. It is the correct step for CO to take, but it won't "clear the demand".

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

So to end @ Mar '09 by the end of Sep when does CO 've to move the dates again (guestimate/prediction?)

[Jagan01]

Jagan,

This Eb3 to Eb2 porting numbers could reach the DD only if the priority date is current ( Ref my earlier posts for INA Section quote)

I would say the present high numbers denote the rush for placement in the Eb2 DD queue by the EB3ers. Otherwise, if they miss this opening, they will be stagnated in the USCIS as interfilers.

Kanmani,

One basic question:
There were many people who applied in Aug 1st week, and they have already started getting approvals since the 1st week of OCT. When do you think the CO's office (DoS) would have seen these applications?

If you are saying that the people who filed in Aug are showing up at COs office in Oct, then may be the 800 portes are coming from that number.

[qesehmk]

He can wait as late as Aug bulletin. 2 months are more than enough for USCIS / DOS to process 15-20K backlog - especially ripe backlog like EB2I.

So to end @ Mar '09 by the end of Sep when does CO 've to move the dates again (guestimate/prediction?)

[Jagan01]

Pedro, Viz, Sports

I would like to point out that you are missing a very essential thing from the news:
1. CO said that he will retrogress dates to 2005. Meaning the monthly allocation (300) will continue. This would mean that he is not counting the current approvals from the annual EB2I allocations.
2. The only theory that makes sense now, is that the current supply (visa numbers) that have been used in Oct approvals is coming from the FB unused visa allocation of 8000.
3. I think CO is planning to use up the 5500 that would have come to EB2I from the unused FB.

Why is this important.
1. If he is planning to drain this FB unused allocation of 5500 by the end of Nov, then we should se approvals continue in trackitt up until mid Nov 2013.
2. With those 5500 gone and the annual EB2I (3000) to be drained gradually by pre-2005 PDs, we would have lost the FB spillover and EB2I quota before we hit July 2014.

Frankly, I do not see the FD from other EB categories and FA from EB2ROW providing more than 4k.

If we would have 4k left at the end of the year, I do not think dates might move more than 2 months. So I find it hard to understand why the above news is not important.

Of course, if the CO said he is making it U in Dec, then it would have meant completely different strategy.

[qesehmk]

Thanks to both bikenlalan and rosharma for posting this.

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2013/...tober-23-2013/

EB-1. This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year.
EB-2 Rest of World (ROW). This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year; however, Mr. Oppenheim suggested that depending on demand he may introduce a cutoff date towards the end of the fiscal year.
EB-2 China. This category is expected to continue to move forward by approximately 3-5 weeks per month in each Visa Bulletin.
EB-2 India. This is the major headline from our meeting with Mr. Oppenheim – EB-2 India is expected to retrogress significantly – by several years back to late 2005 or early 2005 as early as the next Visa Bulletin. It is expected that EB-2 India will remain at that level (late 2004 or early 2005) until the summer of 2014. The rationale behind this severe retrogression in EB-2 India is that there is simply too much “demand” (number of pending cases caused by I-485 filings and EB-3 to EB-2 porting cases, plus adding dependents) in this category and the Visa Office has to stop the rate of new filings until USCIS and DOS are able to approve the pending cases and “clear the demand.”
EB-3 Rest of World (ROW). This category is expected to move forward significantly (up to one year) over the next one or two months to stimulate “demand” for the next several months.
EB-3 China/Philippines. Each of these two categories is expected to keep moving forward by 2 weeks per month.
EB-3 India. Unfortunately, this category continues to be oversubscribed and there is no forward movement expected in the next (December 2013) Visa Bulletin. In addition, Mr. Oppenheim indicated that a retrogression is very possible in the near future. This would be caused by the fact that there are simply too many EB-3 India applicants waiting for a visa number to become available. However, as a positive sign, as many EB-3 India applicants are porting into EB-2, there is some possibility that some EB-3 visa numbers may be “freed” simply because some EB-3 candidates will drop out of the EB-3 demand line after receiving a green card under a newly ported EB-2 category.
EB-5. Mr. Oppenheim suggested that the demand for EB-5 is on an upward trajectory and he indicated that the most recent fiscal year noted a 15% increase in EB-5 China cases. This makes it likely that there would be a cutoff date introduced towards the summer for EB-5 China (only).

EB1 / EB2 ROW / EB2 C / EB3 CP - no new news.
EB3 ROW - it's baffling how EB3ROW is moving ahead without corresponding spike in EB2ROW. Regardless, it means EB2ROW may not have any extra visas left to give to EB2 category.
EB5 - Indeed this is a general trend and hence no new news.

EB2IC - This confirms that as the old EB3 applicants become more expert, the companies are willing to port them to EB2 and are doing it en masse. However, IMO, retrogression doesn't do anything other than increase the pain of porters because then CO is making them wait an unnecessary 1 more year. Secondly this piece of information by itself doesn't tell us anything other than the porting will be more than 2800 per year which is what EB2IC's quota is. So technically whenever porting exceeds 2800K CO can retrogress to a date where porting will fall down below 2800. However it is quite intuitive that as EB3 backlog matures, more and more people will become eligible for porting and hence porting will increase beyond 3-5K which was our original estimate.

"Mr. Oppenheim suggested that the EB-1 and EB-5 categories are relatively “popular” this year and expects more numbers to be used in these categories, compared to the past years. He cited EB-5 China category where the demand has been growing steadily (approximately 15% over the year before) and that a cutoff date for EB-5 China is possible later this fiscal year (possibly around June 2014). This high demand also means that there will be less “leftover” visa numbers available to allocate to other categories, such as EB-2 India and China which would further contribute to the slow EB-2 India and China forward movement".

This piece of statement scares me. So far we have been thinking EB2-I might get more spillovers because of PERM slodowns and government shud-down. I hope Eb2-I would end up getting sizable spillovers in last quarter.

Indeed EB1 and 5 may contribute less. But I am quite optimistic about this year too. I am going to refrain from predicting here. But I can say this - Immigration situation is becoming acute but thanks to extra 8K, EB2I will move reasonably well this year too.

[Jagan01]

This is just a wild guess!

There was close to 3K backlog entering October from previous year anyway, and when the dates move, again an equivalent backlog will exist going into 2015. Some 2K people will be greened additionally and it's impossible to say what CO will do with the FB spillover. He *cannot* use it from my perspective. He's conceded EB5 retrogression possibility (although he did the same last year and it didn't happen), so he should not use EB5 portion. He is also saying the same about EB2-ROW so he shouldn't use that too. From what I can see, he will use 2-3K numbers to approve EB2-I until mid November (or the internal retrogression might have kicked in NOW the way it did in March 2012). He might count those numbers from the annual quota or he might count them as part of the quarterly spillover...either way, it's not a big deal and for EB2-I, it makes a difference of 2 months max.

Also, going back to 2005 might be effectively making it U. He had moved EB2-ROW to 2009 and it was effectively U. We don't even know what the final date is. He will just put it to Jan 1 2004 effectively making it U. We can track the approvals going forward and my guess is that they will be minimal.

Let's not spread the fear. Each year, there are doomsday theories, but each year, things have worked out. Unless PERM processing improves, this year should be similar to last year (even considering we have less FB spillover) because EB2-ROW may provide big spillover. With the fights looming in Congress around January, I am betting on worsening PERM processing.

Sports,

I am not trying to spread fear. Do you really think that CO will only use 2-3k numbers to approve EB2-I until mid Nov ? Purely looking at the supply side you should know that number is much bigger than 2-3k. I think at least 5k of the FY2014 potential numbers will be swept out by end of nov.

Here is the logic:
Trackitt generally has 1100 - 1500 approvals annually. We see 16000 to 23000 approvals annually.
Trackit has already shown 285 approvals for this year. We have had 20% drained already.

I think the most critical set of data now is to see when the approvals start to freeze on trackitt.
1. If they stop this week then yes relatively less damage is done.
2. If they continue at this rate up until last week of Nov, we would have lost almost 40% of the EB2I potential total annual numbers.

Now coming to your second point. Of course the date the CO moves the dates back to will dictate the monthly consumption. He specifically said, late 2004 or early 2005. That is not same as U my friend.
EB3 demand data:
Prior to Jan 2004 --> 2,900
Prior to Jan 2005 --> 13,600

Late 2004, would surely mean at least a candidate set of 10000 porters. Last time during FY2012, the candidate set was 20000 porters, and we saw that they were able to eat up 300 visas monthly. So, I would expect that these porters take up at least 100 monthly. It is a small number. But it defines the strategy that CO is adopting.

[suninphx]

Ok this happens every year - and this year is no exception.

So every year we get some commentary like this from CO and without having full context of those comments many people become overly pessimistic. Also, repeated 'I told you so' are not going to help any discussion.

In my opinion- lets give it some more time, let more data come in and then we can have more meaningful discussion.

[Jagan01]

Ok this happens every year - and this year is no exception.

So every year we get some commentary like this from CO and without having full context of those comments many people become overly pessimistic. Also, repeated 'I told you so' are not going to help any discussion.

In my opinion- lets give it some more time, let more data come in and then we can have more meaningful discussion.

Sun,
One point abt why this year is different from previous. I think we are draining the numbers faster than ever before. Below is count of number of approvals in Oct in previous years from trackitt:
Oct 2009 --> 134
Oct 2010 --> 40
Oct 2011 --> 178
Oct 2012 --> 38
Oct 2013 (Still 6 days to go) --> 285

Oct 2013 approvals might end up around 320 if this madness continues. Doesn't it point to a fact that this year is different and more visas are being used up in the beginning of the year. This would also translate to less number of visas available at the end of the year.

I agree that we would have a better idea by the end of January as most of the things might have been cleared out.

[suninphx]

Sun,
One point abt why this year is different from previous. I think we are draining the numbers faster than ever before. Below is count of number of approvals in Oct in previous years from trackitt:
Oct 2009 --> 134
Oct 2010 --> 40
Oct 2011 --> 178
Oct 2012 --> 38
Oct 2013 (Still 6 days to go) --> 285

Oct 2013 approvals might end up around 320 if this madness continues. Doesn't it point to a fact that this year is different and more visas are being used up in the beginning of the year. This would also translate to less number of visas available at the end of the year.

I agree that we would have a better idea by the end of January as most of the things might have been cleared out.

Jagan,

First of all thanks for all this effort to pull out data from trackitt.

Personally, I find trackitt data very deceiving because of so many variables involved. It may provide a direction where things are heading though. Hopefully we have more clarity in Jan inventory(if we get one). The retro is going to give us plenty of time to come up with new theories.

I hope every one who is current gets GC before they retro.

[jackbrown_890]

Yup i agree, CO has made comments like this couple times in the past,..
but still in recent future i can't remember if he has assigned these many visa numbers to EB2I in the first month of the year...In a way it is good that few thousands Eb2I including porters got GC in the first quarter instead of waiting for the next SO season. I would like to believe the theory that most of these approvals are from 2013 numbers....
I was hoping to see 2 more things from him. but it seems like he made no comments on..
1: explanation on extra 8k.. (how did he come up with that number so early in the year) and if it is just a guesstimate,,is it conservative or not..
2: reason for high eb2I approvals in Oct..
hopefully we will find out once we have more data..

[qesehmk]

Yup i agree, CO has made comments like this couple times in the past,..
but still in recent future i can't remember if he has assigned these many visa numbers to EB2I in the first month of the year...In a way it is good that few thousands Eb2I including porters got GC in the first quarter instead of waiting for the next SO season. I would like to believe the theory that most of these approvals are from 2013 numbers....
I was hoping to see 2 more things from him. but it seems like he made no comments on..
1: explanation on extra 8k.. (how did he come up with that number so early in the year) and if it is just a guesstimate,,is it conservative or not..
2: reason for high eb2I approvals in Oct..
hopefully we will find out once we have more data..

See .... CO's job is not easy. People are pissed with him all the time. So the last thing that CO will ever do is promise moon to the backlogged people.

His job demands him to be conservative and that's what he is. So lets take things in their stride and keep looking for actual data points. I agree w Suninphx that this is year is not much different from last year in terms of how CO will approach it. So we will see a rinse and repeat of retrogression followed by forward movement. How much forward movement at this point is going to be anybody's guess. Some others have posted their calculations and guesses and to be honest I don't have a reason to disagree unless somebody starts talking about 2010. That I can guarantee we are not going to see.

[Jagan01]

Yup i agree, CO has made comments like this couple times in the past,..
but still in recent future i can't remember if he has assigned these many visa numbers to EB2I in the first month of the year...In a way it is good that few thousands Eb2I including porters got GC in the first quarter instead of waiting for the next SO season. I would like to believe the theory that most of these approvals are from 2013 numbers....
I was hoping to see 2 more things from him. but it seems like he made no comments on..
1: explanation on extra 8k.. (how did he come up with that number so early in the year) and if it is just a guesstimate,,is it conservative or not..
2: reason for high eb2I approvals in Oct..
hopefully we will find out once we have more data..

Jackbrown,

I agree that he did not say anything abt point (1). However, I think he did answer the question about your point (2) (reason for high EB2I approvals in Oct).

On a more general level, Mr. Oppenheim shared that his goal is to advance the cutoff dates more at the beginning of the fiscal year (October, November and December, and January visa bulletins) and then, as he is able to gauge demand for a particular preference category, adjust accordingly by either slowing down or retrogressing (if demand is high) or advancing even more (is demand turns out to be low).

When Oct bulletin was released (Sep fisrt week) the porting demand had not materialized. He wanted to see the extent of porting. Keeping the dates at June 2008 for Oct bulletin would have given him a fair idea. I think there was a different discussion between Q, Kanmani, Pedro, Indiani and other gurus about how visas are allocated. If I remember it correctly, CO only sets the dates and USCIS assigns visas. Please correct me if I am wrong.

So CO set the date for OCt 2013 so that he can see the demand and USCIS is doing its job of assigning the visas. May be that he extended this logic to Nov to get a better idea of porting as the sept applicants would also be able to materialize into the demand by the end of Nov.

Now CO has to reconcile and retrogress the dates. But he has got a very very good idea about the porting demand and that was the purpose of keeping the dates at June 2008 for the last two bulletins.

[primus]

Guys, after this retrogress news, I am getting freaked out. Need answer/suggestion on my queries. Appreciate your help in advance.

I have been desperately waiting for my EAD card, that is pending for last 85 days (applied on Aug. 1st). I have initiated an enquiry by local congressman on Sep. 17th for the status of I-485 and I-765. Finally USCIS reported back on 22nd October, saying:

I-765: Background check has completed and approved. Application is in transit to adjudicating office.

I-485: Under processing within the given time frame of 4 months.

My wife and daughter's EAD card have already come 4 weeks back.

Q1) Does EAD requires background check? or is it for I-485, they did?

If the background check is for I-485, then my 2 questions are as follows:

Q2) how close am I to get GC approval before date retrogress.

Q3) Ideally how long does an I-485 approval takes after a case has been given to an adjudicating officer (if PD is current and visas are available)?

Q4) Since its not 4 months completed yet, so I cannot open an SR or take infopass. Is there anything I should do to expedite the process?

PD: Sep. 1st 2006
I-485/I-131/765 receipt date: Aug 1st 2013 (first time)
Direct EB2

[vizcard]

Guys, after this retrogress news, I am getting freaked out. Need answer/suggestion on my queries. Appreciate your help in advance.

I have been desperately waiting for my EAD card, that is pending for last 85 days (applied on Aug. 1st). I have initiated an enquiry by local congressman on Sep. 17th for the status of I-485 and I-765. Finally USCIS reported back on 22nd October, saying:

I-765: Background check has completed and approved. Application is in transit to adjudicating office.

I-485: Under processing within the given time frame of 4 months.

My wife and daughter's EAD card have already come 4 weeks back.

Q1) Does EAD requires background check? or is it for I-485, they did?

If the background check is for I-485, then my 2 questions are as follows:

Q2) how close am I to get GC approval before date retrogress.

Q3) Ideally how long does an I-485 approval takes after a case has been given to an adjudicating officer (if PD is current and visas are available)?

Q4) Since its not 4 months completed yet, so I cannot open an SR or take infopass. Is there anything I should do to expedite the process?

PD: Sep. 1st 2006
I-485/I-131/765 receipt date: Aug 1st 2013 (first time)
Direct EB2

Q1) Background check is only for 485 not for EAD/AP
Q2) Its hard to say..it could happen tomorrow or not at all. (I know this is harsh but its also true)
Q3) Its hard to say again...depends on the workload, low hanging fruit, priorities pushed on him/her by superiors, etc. I really wish I could go "behind the scenes" for a week to understand what they do
Q4) Nothing you can do at this point.

I know none of what I posted will put your mind at ease but here's something that might. You WILL get your EAD regardless of retrogression and you WILL get your GC next summer. You can take that to the bank!

[primus]

Q1) Background check is only for 485 not for EAD/AP
Q2) Its hard to say..it could happen tomorrow or not at all. (I know this is harsh but its also true)
Q3) Its hard to say again...depends on the workload, low hanging fruit, priorities pushed on him/her by superiors, etc. I really wish I could go "behind the scenes" for a week to understand what they do
Q4) Nothing you can do at this point.

I know none of what I posted will put your mind at ease but here's something that might. You WILL get your EAD regardless of retrogression and you WILL get your GC next summer. You can take that to the bank!

Thank you Viz. I was unnecessarily excited after knowing that background check is passed. Seems background check does not quantify as how close am I to green card. Though I-485 status on USCIS site is still showing my case at the first stage i.e. acceptance since 8/1/13. Weird that they did not update it even after background check.

One more thing in USCIS reply to congressman, not sure why they mentioned background check approval for I-765 status update, as it is for I-485

[qesehmk]

Primus viz is abs right. Only thing i will add is u still have full nov before any possible retro. My guess is u r going to get greened without being retro. 4 months r suff for uscis. Best. Q.

Thank you Viz. I was unnecessarily excited after knowing that background check is passed. Seems background check does not quantify as how close am I to green card. Though I-485 status on USCIS site is still showing my case at the first stage i.e. acceptance since 8/1/13. Weird that they did not update it even after background check.

One more thing in USCIS reply to congressman, not sure why they mentioned background check approval for I-765 status update, as it is for I-485

[primus]

My guess is u r going to get greened without being retro. 4 months r suff for uscis. Best. Q.

In hindi, there is a saying "Tere muh me ghee shakkar"

[Kanmani]

Kanmani,

One basic question:
There were many people who applied in Aug 1st week, and they have already started getting approvals since the 1st week of OCT. When do you think the CO's office (DoS) would have seen these applications?

If you are saying that the people who filed in Aug are showing up at COs office in Oct, then may be the 800 portes are coming from that number.

Fresh first time I485 applications filed on Aug st, whether it is direct EB2 or EB3 date ported EB2 could reach the demand data anytime even if the dates are retrogressed.

Porters who have pending EB3 I-485 might have sent their interfiling request to uscis as soon as their newly filed EB2 I-140 is approved. These interfilers are not part of DD until their new EB2 PD is current.

Since the CoD is staying for a while this time, many porters might have gotten their approval without reaching the DD itself and the rest are reaching the DD once the 2013 visa numbers are exhausted. We may not know the exact numbers until the Annual Data published.

Having said that, we cannot use this one month's data for extrapolating the annual porting numbers.

[imdeng]

Regarding CO's comments, I am surprised that EB3ROW is continuing to move forward despite significant movement in past few months. It is already in Oct-10 - an year back it was in Nov-06. A four year jump is not sufficient to generated enough demand? If there was any EB3ROW to EB2ROW porting going in then that should vanish. Rest of CO's comments were as expected - including the EB5 situation - Spec has been warning about that for a while.

It would be fun to watch the inventory data with post 07/07 figures for EB3. I think EB3ROW is going to show really low density post 07/07.