EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[qesehmk]

Thanks Kanmani. The bolded piece is what leaves this whole thing at the discretion of DOS.

"the total number of visas available under both subsections (a) and (b) of section 203 for a calendar quarter exceeds the number of qualified immigrants who otherwise may be issued such a visa, paragraph (2) shall not apply to visas made available to such states or areas during the remainder of such calendar quarter"

Paragraph(2)- Per country levels for family-sponsored and employment-based immigrants

[helooo]

Thanks Kanmani. The bolded piece is what leaves this whole thing at the discretion of DOS.

Is there any possibility of getting spill over after first quarter?Thank you!

[qesehmk]

IMHO QSP is a policy matter and so unless anybody knows what DOS is thinking, it is impossible to predict QSP with certainty.

However we know for sure that more often than not DOS tends NOT to do a QSP.

Is there any possibility of getting spill over after first quarter?Thank you!

[gcq]

There is a practical difficulty for CO to do QSP. What if there is demand from ROW for the visas in later quarters ? If CO does QSP, he may end up in a situation where ROW demand is enough to use up all the ROW visas, but he had already allocated those visa numbers to retrogressed countries. That way he would be violating the country-quota rules.

[Kanmani]

I was explaining the high level flow. I read your posting. To me this looks like a system glitch.

Situation:
request's for a visa #. An approval email for the request is not received, the reason is non-availability of visa number. Requester does not request to delete the request. DOS have the request pending until Oct 1st. They are approving the request after October 1st and sending it to central address.Is it the job of DOS to make sure they are not exceeding the monthly/quarterly/annual allocation ? I guess no. All they do is, just approve it when they have visa number in hand.
I doubt if the periodical limitations are verified when the approval is coming back after Oct 1st. May be key thing here is, not placing a deletion request.

This could be a system glitch, but I am sure all visas are from 2014. Until they clearly say, they do not exceed periodical limitation, we can have our own thoughts.

The answer is a big YES indeed. DoS is the only agency who is solely responsible for maintaining the visa quota as per law/amendments periodically.

PS: I have several case studies which would support my theory. I am sorry that I cannot participate in a full swing right now,as I am currently in India.
Thanks Q!

[PD2008AUG25]

There is a practical difficulty for CO to do QSP. What if there is demand from ROW for the visas in later quarters ? If CO does QSP, he may end up in a situation where ROW demand is enough to use up all the ROW visas, but he had already allocated those visa numbers to retrogressed countries. That way he would be violating the country-quota rules.

The rule clearly says he can do QSP on a quarter to quarter basis. It doesn't matter if there is high demand in later quarters. Per country quota rules are not applicable in the quarter he does QSP.

[PD2008AUG25]

If there is QSP, he can do only during the quarter, not after it.

[gcq]

The rule clearly says he can do QSP on a quarter to quarter basis. It doesn't matter if there is high demand in later quarters. Per country quota rules are not applicable in the quarter he does QSP.

Can you explain how country quota is not applicable when CO applies QSP ? Country quota supersedes QSP. QSP is optional and it is at the discretion of CO.

[veni001]

Are the previous demand data stored some where in this forum?

I found the demand data stored here..

Monthly EB demand-data is stored and updated here...

[qesehmk]

Friends,
Not sure how many of you realized that for 2014 the quota is 148K i.e. 8K more than usual quota of 140K. This is very significant for EB2IC. Also the demand data is very encouraging. It shows low future demand as well as low levels of backlogs. Overall 2014 it seems will be a much better year than I earlier thought.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Friends,
Not sure how many of you realized that for 2014 the quota is 148K i.e. 8K more than usual quota of 140K. This is very significant for EB2IC. Also the demand data is very encouraging. It shows low future demand as well as low levels of backlogs. Overall 2014 it seems will be a much better year than I earlier thought.

Sports first mentioned it immediately after the DD came out and we had a brief discussion that it had to be the FB spillover but how unusual it was for it to be applied this early. I think it is a preliminary figure from which will be refined in February. Anyway, you are right to bring it up again and stress it's importance.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Can you explain how country quota is not applicable when CO applies QSP ? Country quota supersedes QSP. QSP is optional and it is at the discretion of CO.

I'm with gcq on this. In my opinion, QSP is legal, but it doesn't trump annual quotas. So, unless CO has a strong reason to believe spillovers are forthcoming, he can't authorize QSP.

But I wanted to clarify an important point that some people here appear to be missing. Once the VB is published, the USCIS has no discretion on whether to provide visas or not, irrespective of whether it exceeds annual country quotas, until annual category limits are reached. That is the only time they can stop giving out visas.

So for EB3I and EB2I applicants that have been waiting for their GCs for the last 2 months, subject to a) potential processing time expansions, and b) individual RFEs, they should retain hope of getting their GCs until Nov 30th.

[qesehmk]

Thanks Pedro. Was away on a camping trip over weekend so missed that action.

Yes indeed this number is prelim and will be refined after the DHS report (late this year) or as late as Q4 of USCIS 2014.

What is very comforting is that CO decided to throw this out early in the year - which means he is very confident that the number will be at least 148K.

Sports first mentioned it immediately after the DD came out and we had a brief discussion that it had to be the FB spillover but how unusual it was for it to be applied this early. I think it is a preliminary figure from which will be refined in February. Anyway, you are right to bring it up again and stress it's importance.

[dorais]

I remember F2A category became current in the last 2 months of prior year. I forgot the reason for that. Was it to build pipeline and not waste FB visas? If that is the case, then CO might have been too late to open the flood gate and expect to USCIS to use all the visas for that year. I have minimal understanding on the FB immigration and does someone know the forms/processing times for F2A?

I also see that F2A has a good portion of FB visas. (77% of 114200).

As sports said, hopefully we get more from FB this year.

I think it will be revised only upwards. This has to be a rather conservative estimate.

[Jagan01]

Oct 2013 Approvals:
total = 142 (~2130)
first time filers = 30 (~450)

I firmly believe the approvals will freeze once we see around 200 (~3000) approvals in trackitt. That would mean that annual limit available to EB2I is used up. If we see approvals even after that then it would mean that spillover are being applied. I hope spillover wont be applied so early in the year.

On a side note: If spillovers will be applied and dates stay at June 08, then the biggest losers will be people with PD July 08 - Feb 09. There are approximately 3000 first time files in Aug and 2000 fisrt time filers in Sep. Together these are 5000 new filers and if dates stay where they are for a longer period then these 5000 would consume a lot of the FY2014 numbers.

As mentioned in my previous post. The approvals will start slowing down once we reach closer to 200 approvals in trackitt.

As of today 162 approvals in trackitt for Oct 2013. This would translate to ~2500 real world approvals. CO will use up the annual limit ~2900 and then stop giving approvals. HOwever, if he decides to use quarterly spillover then the approvals will keep continuing. I do not believe quarterly spillovers will be applied. I firmly believe, CO will use up the annual limit of ~2900 visas and then stop giving approvals. I am getting a feeling EB2I will internally retrogress after this week and will be made U (unavailable) soon. If that happens then CO will be following a good strategy to not allow any more porting as no one can file I-485 if the date is made unavailable.

[qesehmk]

I also see that F2A has a good portion of FB visas. (77% of 114200).

Other than that these 3 things made F2A current:
1. 75% of those 77% are not subject to country limits.
2. F2A/B limit is 114200 + any numbers more than 226000 for the entire F category
3. F2A is meant for spouses of GC holders. Thats an odd category because usually the spouse would already be covered in some other category as secondary applicant while the primary's GC was being processed.

[seattlet]

I doubt this would happen. CO would have retrogressed the dates in this month's VB if this is the case. And if this were to happen he would have indicated this in the VB.
(he has indicated about such usage in the past when he was not very sure). The way he confidently put out Demand data with just 9000 EB2 I prior to Jan 2009 suggests
to me that only he knows the strategy that is in effect. Visa numbers got exhausted couple of weeks before sep end and hence he had 3 wks to know the demand prior to Jun 2008
that was not yet satisifed from 2013.

In my opinion he would probably keep the dates the same for longer. There are always folks who benefit vs folks who lose. When resources are limited - we all want the CO to act / work in our favor. some win some lose.

As mentioned in my previous post. The approvals will start slowing down once we reach closer to 200 approvals in trackitt.

As of today 162 approvals in trackitt for Oct 2013. This would translate to ~2500 real world approvals. CO will use up the annual limit ~2900 and then stop giving approvals. HOwever, if he decides to use quarterly spillover then the approvals will keep continuing. I do not believe quarterly spillovers will be applied. I firmly believe, CO will use up the annual limit of ~2900 visas and then stop giving approvals. I am getting a feeling EB2I will internally retrogress after this week and will be made U (unavailable) soon. If that happens then CO will be following a good strategy to not allow any more porting as no one can file I-485 if the date is made unavailable.

[veni001]

Monthly EB demand-data is stored and updated here...

One interesting observation EB3I demand reduced by 15,175 in the last one year (Nov 2012 to Nov 2013)

[gcq]

As mentioned in my previous post. The approvals will start slowing down once we reach closer to 200 approvals in trackitt.

As of today 162 approvals in trackitt for Oct 2013. This would translate to ~2500 real world approvals. CO will use up the annual limit ~2900 and then stop giving approvals. HOwever, if he decides to use quarterly spillover then the approvals will keep continuing. I do not believe quarterly spillovers will be applied. I firmly believe, CO will use up the annual limit of ~2900 visas and then stop giving approvals. I am getting a feeling EB2I will internally retrogress after this week and will be made U (unavailable) soon. If that happens then CO will be following a good strategy to not allow any more porting as no one can file I-485 if the date is made unavailable.

CO cannot use up an entire years visa in in the first or second month of the year. It is prohibited by law.

[Jagan01]

CO cannot use up an entire years visa in in the first or second month of the year. It is prohibited by law.

Any supporting documents ?

[Kanmani]

Any supporting documents ?

INA: ACT 201 - WORLDWIDE LEVEL OF IMMIGRATION
Sec. 201. [8 U.S.C. 1151]
(a)(2) employment-based immigrants described in section 203(b) (or who are admitted under section 211(a) on the basis of a prior issuance of a visa to their accompanying parent under section 203(b) ), in a number not to exceed in any fiscal year the number specified in subsection (d) for that year, and not to exceed in any of the first 3 quarters of any fiscal year 27 percent of the worldwide level under such subsection for all of such fiscal year

Jagan,

The chief of Visa Office is directed by the Immigration and Nationality Act to release only 27% (less than or equal to) of the total annual quota in the first three quarters of any fiscal year.

[Kanmani]

I may be late in pointing out this from the November 2013 visa Bulletin. Guys, Ignore this if it has already been discussed.

D. VISA AVAILABILITY

It is important to remember that the establishment of a monthly cut-off or "Current" status for a numerically controlled category (preference or Diversity) applies to those applicants who were reported prior to the allocation of visa numbers for that month. For example, all qualified applicants who were reported to the Visa Office in time to be included in the calculation of the September cut-offs, who had a priority date or rank-order number before the relevant September cut-off, would have been allotted visa numbers for September. There would be no expectation, however, that sufficient numbers would be available for the processing of cases which subsequently became eligible for final action during that month. Additional numbers may be allocated outside the regular monthly cycle, but only to the extent that such numbers remain available under the applicable annual limit. The availability of additional numbers is subject to change at any time and should never be taken for granted. This is especially true late in the fiscal year when numerical allocations are often close to or at the annual limits.

[PD2008AUG25]

Can you explain how country quota is not applicable when CO applies QSP ? Country quota supersedes QSP. QSP is optional and it is at the discretion of CO.

Law clearly states that per country rule isn't applicable in the quarter where there isn't enough demand for ROW. So if in later quarters demand is high enough, per-country rule will be applicable for that quarter.

[PD2008AUG25]

It is difficult to postulate what CO is doing. We can only let past history be our judge.

I think the real driver here is that the lack of EB2-ROW demand. Outside of all other constraints, there is another constraint that a fixed number of visas should be given out each quarter. Since the PERM slowdown and the government shutdown has started, there should be a severe lack of EB2-ROW demand, which in short term has kept the EB2-I date to where it is. In fact I will go on a limb and say that the date may move forward even in December (end of quarter) and in the best case, match EB2-C (Nov 2008).

In this scenario, it doesn't matter even if EB2-I exceeds its annual demand. Sure, some spillover is used here, and sure, people in later months of 2009 will lose out. But in the grand scheme of things, it is immaterial. It is October already and we will start the holiday season soon. With the shutdown prospects still looming, I think the backlog will just increase in near term, which will be a boon to EB2-I. I saw that Q has posted a very aggressive FY-2014 estimate on his site. I think along the similar lines. EB2-I will cross mid 2009 this year for sure. The question is how the forward movement will be accomplished (early in the year or later).

P.S. I don't think CO runs any deep optimization algorithm to derive his strategy. His algorithm should be very simple meant to satisfy a bunch of constraints. When he considers "demand", he must literally take a snapshot of approvable cases ready on day X at time Y and that's it. Finally, there must really be a strong disconnect between the USCIS and the DOS and that disconnect is what propelled the dates forward in 2012. CO simply applied QSP because for whatever reason, the demand from other categories was invisible to him and in order to satisfy the quarterly limits, he ended up pushing the EB2I date. Unfortunately, it is difficult to reverse engineer this because whatever internal metrics the DOS uses are unknown to us. That's my view in a nutshell.

This is exactly what I have been thinking. PERM approval now averages 200 days, that is even before shutdown. If you look at the trend since last year, that number has been increasing steadily. Last year it used to be 60-90 days. This quarter is a very good candidate for QSP, given ever slowing PERM + slowdown + weak economy.

If slowdown continues in second quarter, CO may not retrogress EB2I dates like we have been expecting. He may advance EB2I few weeks at a time to gradually use up excess visa. Real beneficiaries will be porters as there won't be retrogression.

[qesehmk]

Law clearly states that per country rule isn't applicable in the quarter where there isn't enough demand for ROW. So if in later quarters demand is high enough, per-country rule will be applicable for that quarter.

This is true. What is vague (and may be Kanmani can see through the legal jargon) is the interpretation of 7% country limit. Once a quarter is history - is 7% interpreted over the remaining visas or the full year limit? My hunch is it is the latter.