EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[Pedro Gonzales]

Based on a Trackitt user's SR response from USCIS, looks like the visas for 2013 are done. For the unlucky ones who did not receive it this time (like yours truly) the wait continues for up to another year!

If they knew they didn't have enough demand to cover all applications until June 15, 2008, I wonder why CO kept the dates unchanged for October 2013?

Fret not my friend. Even if they ran out for the year, you will still be current in October which is fiscal year 2014. I'll refer you to my prior post here, where I discuss this.

It doesn't matter that visa numbers ran out for the year, since the dates did not retrogress in the October bulletin. The USCIS will have 27% of 40,000 visa numbers available to EB2 in October to issue whatever visa numbers are required by EB2I. Any application picked up will have the visa numbers available to allocate, so do everything you can on Oct 1st (call L2, get an SR issued, set up an infopass appointment, use your senator and/or congressman) to get them to look at your application.

Either CO believes that the number of original applicants (not first time I485 filers) is less than 2,850 so he can provide those visa numbers from EB2Is regular quota and then retrogress it to where EB3I is, or he is not shy about using up other EB2 visa numbers (essentially QSP). The latter possibility dovetails well with Sports' point a few posts back where he speculates that the PERM slowdown may have decreased EB2ROW processing significantly enough that CO is willing to engage in QSP.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Thanks for the inputs Pedro.

How long do you think a case takes to preadj once it is filed for the first time with USCIS. I am trying to see how many first time I-485 filers who filed in Aug 2013 will have their cases preadj before the dates eventually retrogress in Nov / Dec.

I think they'll stick to the 4 month processing time and perhaps even longer given how busy they'll have been in August and September. So, come Nov 1, I think fewer than 5% of first time filers will have been processed.

A quick check on the trackitt tracker should give you an idea. compare the total number of I485 applied (RD or ND) in August 2013, and compare that to approvals in August or September 2013. I doubt there'll be more than a handful approved so far, although that number may go up in October.

[pseudonym]

Based on a Trackitt user's SR response from USCIS, looks like the visas for 2013 are done. For the unlucky ones who did not receive it this time (like yours truly) the wait continues for up to another year!

If they knew they didn't have enough demand to cover all applications until June 15, 2008, I wonder why CO kept the dates unchanged for October 2013?


U.S. Department of Homeland Security
P. O. BOX 851488 - DEPT. A
TEXAS SERVICE CENTER
MESQUITE,TX 75185

U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services
Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Emailed to ###################

Dear ************:

On 09/04/2013 you, or the designated representative shown below, contacted us about your case. Some of the key information given to us at that time was the following:

Caller indicated they are:
-- Applicant or Petitioner

Attorney Name:
-- Information not available

Case type:
-- I485

Filing date:
-- 01/10/2012

Receipt #:
-- SRC-**********************

Referral ID:
****************
Beneficiary (if you filed for someone else):
-- Information not available

Your USCIS Account Number (A-number):
-- ***********

Type of service requested:
-- Outside Normal Processing Times


The status of this service request is:

The Department of State has informed U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) that all employment-based immigrant visas have been distributed for fiscal year 2013. Every fiscal year (October 1st � September 30th), at least 140,000 employment-based immigrant visas are made available to qualified applicants who seek to immigrate based on an offer of employment to the principal applicant. Please visit www.uscis.gov for more information about employment-based immigration. To view the Department of State�s Visa Bulletin, please visit www.state.gov.

XM1058
-------------------------------
Online Services
We offer many online services and tools to help you find the information you need. Please visit our Web site at www.uscis.gov for information about:
* Using our Case Status Online tool;
* Signing up for case status updates;
* Checking processing times;
* Submitting an e-Request to inquire about certain applications and petitions;
* Using our Office Locator;
* Using InfoPass to schedule an appointment; and
* Downloading forms.

Address Changes
If you move, please provide us with an updated address. For more information about address changes, please visit our Web site at www.uscis.gov/ar-11, and click on "Change Your Address Online."

For More Information
If you do not find the information you need through our online services and need further assistance, you may contact our National Customer Service Center at 1-800-375-5283 or 1-800-767-1833 (TDD for the hearing impaired).

That is frustrating!! I really hope that is not the case. I just received a response today to the SR that I had opened as well, but fortunately it did not have same message. I do not know whether they really need to do additional checks or if it is just a delay tactic, but below is the message I received:

-----------------------------------
U.S. Department of Homeland Security
P. O. BOX 851488 - DEPT. A
TEXAS SERVICE CENTER
MESQUITE,TX 75185

U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services
Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Emailed to xxxxx@GMAIL.COM

Dear xxxx xxxx:

On 09/05/2013 you, or the designated representative shown below, contacted us about your case. Some of the key information given to us at that time was the following:

Caller indicated they are:
-- Applicant or Petitioner

Attorney Name:
-- Information not available

Case type:
-- I485

Filing date:
-- 02/15/2012

Receipt #:
-- SRC-12-901-xxxxx

Referral ID:
xxxxxxxx
Beneficiary (if you filed for someone else):
-- Information not available

Your USCIS Account Number (A-number):
-- xxxxx

Type of service requested:
-- Outside Normal Processing Times


The status of this service request is:

We have received your service request and researched the status of your case. We had to perform an additional review and this has caused a delay in processing time. Your case is currently under review. You should receive a decision or notice of further action within 90 days.

XM1317

If you have any further questions, please call the National Customer Service Center 1-800-375-5283.

If you move, please provide us with an updated address. For more information about address changes, please visit our Web site at www.uscis.gov/ar-11, and click on "Change Your Address Online."
-------------------------------

[engineer]

Gurus, pls help me understand the following....
I got the response that my file is now with an adjudicating officer. But the concern is when I called last week L2 officer said my case is already pre-adj in June and my case is in background review again. Today I got the response that file is now with an adjudicating officer.
Is adjudicating officer and immigration officer who approves and assign visa number are the same or different.
I m confused and worried by reading the post about visa is over for 2013.
Pd = march 2008, eb2 - I
Thanks for u r time.

[vizcard]

Vizcard, Thanks! Yes I meant my own case. Will there be separate receipt numbers for EAD, AOD and Advance Parole. Sorry newbie to this process.

Yes. U get separate receipt numbers for each form and for each applicant. So ur 485 and that for a dependent would have 2 diff receipt numbers.

[pseudonym]

Only 3 approvals on the Trackitt tracker today compared to 20+ approvals per day over the last couple of weeks. Could the visa numbers really be over?

I had opened a case with the USCIS ombudsman last weekend, not just to get an update on my case status but to outline how the USCIS has been approving cases apparently in random order without any apparent queuing system based on PD or RD. Not sure it will help any, especially if numbers are over by now. It's just extremely frustrating to have seen so many May and June approvals while folks with relatively earlier PDs are still sitting waiting for approval. Absolutely frustrating.

[indiani]

Only 3 approvals on the Trackitt tracker today compared to 20+ approvals per day over the last couple of weeks. Could the visa numbers really be over?

I had opened a case with the USCIS ombudsman last weekend, not just to get an update on my case status but to outline how the USCIS has been approving cases apparently in random order without any apparent queuing system based on PD or RD. Not sure it will help any, especially if numbers are over by now. It's just extremely frustrating to have seen so many May and June approvals while folks with relatively earlier PDs are still sitting waiting for approval. Absolutely frustrating.

The visas might have been exhausted for this fiscal year. Good news is COD is still june 2008 for oct

[RogerFederer]

Couple of more days will give some info.. still there r chances for current pds to get a number..

I know when I say be patient, how easy to say..and how difficult it is for the one who actually feels the pain..

All I can say keep up hope.. hope for the better..

[Maksimus]

Fret not my friend. Even if they ran out for the year, you will still be current in October which is fiscal year 2014. I'll refer you to my prior post here, where I discuss this.

It doesn't matter that visa numbers ran out for the year, since the dates did not retrogress in the October bulletin. The USCIS will have 27% of 40,000 visa numbers available to EB2 in October to issue whatever visa numbers are required by EB2I. Any application picked up will have the visa numbers available to allocate, so do everything you can on Oct 1st (call L2, get an SR issued, set up an infopass appointment, use your senator and/or congressman) to get them to look at your application.

Either CO believes that the number of original applicants (not first time I485 filers) is less than 2,850 so he can provide those visa numbers from EB2Is regular quota and then retrogress it to where EB3I is, or he is not shy about using up other EB2 visa numbers (essentially QSP). The latter possibility dovetails well with Sports' point a few posts back where he speculates that the PERM slowdown may have decreased EB2ROW processing significantly enough that CO is willing to engage in QSP.

Thanks Pedro, for your words of encouragement! It gives me hope. Also another Trackitt user just spoke to an L2 officer who informed him/her that all visas have been assigned to cases until Sept 30 and those who didn't get a visa assigned will get another chance come Oct 1 when the numbers reset. So I'm hoping I either got a number assigned or will stand a chance in Oct. Question is, at what stage did they distribute the numbers to pending cases and how do we find out if my case was assigned one?

[Jagan01]

I think its still a possibility based on the spill over.
1. From Jun 15 08 to Oct 1st 09- apprx: 18K case
2. Eb3-Eb2 who have filed 485 this time but will in 2014 quota: 4k apprx
3. Miscellaneous: 2k appr
Total cases Needed to cover sep 09 PD: 22k.
Estimate on available visas:
Reg quota: 3k
EB spill Over: 14 k ---what are the chances of getting this spillover from EB
FB: There is lot of discussion going on saying it will be less.
4K spill over--what are the possiblities
Total:
3k+14k(subject to change) + 4k (subject to change): 21K

what is the probability of 14K EB and 4K FB spillover for next year?

I would say that assuming 14k EB spillover is just day dreaming. In my previous post I had clearly explained the demand.
Demand:
June - Dec 08 --> 8k
Jan - Sep 09 --> 12k
Visas not approved before June 08 --> 3k (This is coming from trackitt data)
Total Minimum Demand --> 8+12+3 --> 23k

This figure of 23k assumes that porting stops today. That is not going to happen. Oct dates are at Jun 08, thus porting will continue at least until end of Oct. If the dates stay the same in Nov then more porting.

Even with all the high numbers of 14k EB spillover and 4k FB spillover, you only have 21k supply. that is just good enough to go till June 2009. Hence, the best case is June 2009. Again, that is not realistic but only best case.

I think we should be very lucky to go beyond Mar 2009.

[gc2008]

Hi All,
Sorry for posting in this section. I request admins to move to the relevant section once somebody answers my question. This is regarding my Mother in-law's B2 visa. She applied her visa last year(2012) in June and was approved for only one year. I sponsored that visa. Now she is going for visa renewal. I think she is eligible to apply through drop box. My question is does she need to submit all supporting documents like her financial documents, my I 134, my proof of immigration status along with her DS 160, photos and visa fee.
Please let me know if some body had applied through drop box for B2 visa lately.

Happy Friday!!!

Thanks

Best Regards

[infoseek]

Friends,
Just an FYI. Apologies if this has already been posted. ESP ..since many of us are eager for news on our status .. please beware. Posting it here ... as it seems to be most visited.

"August 20, 2013
In an email to stakeholders dated 8/20/13, USCIS announced that a new telephone scam is targeting current USCIS applicants and petitioners. The scammers ask for social security numbers, passport numbers, or A-numbers, and claim there is information that needs correcting for a fee.


The USCIS never asks for payment over the phone, and if you receive a call like this, do not give any information. If you are already a victim of this scam, please report it to the Federal Trade Commission at https://www.ftccomplaintassistant.gov/, or report it to an appropriate state authority. (Visit www.uscis.gov/avoidscams for information on where to report scams in your state.)"

Source:http://www.wsmimmigration.com/immigration-law-updates/

[vizcard]

Thanks for sharing. There are tons out there who prey on the anxieties and vulnerabilities of others.

[mesan123]

Just an Update to people who are current. one of my friends status changed to card production on Friday and he got his physical green card in mail today( for him and his wife). he just called me to share the good news..

[JosephM]

Got EAD/AP card production email today. Thank God!!
PD 12/15/2007 RD 08/06/2013, TSC

[engineer]

Thanks mesan for sharing that. It means approvals are still happening..some hope there..for this week then...
the only thing ...is not every one is on Qs or trackitt and update delegently..

[helooo]

Hi Gurus,
When can we expect Demand Data or other visa no information?
Thanks!

[qesehmk]

Heloo demand data is published right before the visa bulletin. So generally second week of every month is when you should expect it.

Not sure what else you are asking.

Hi Gurus,
When can we expect Demand Data or other visa no information?
Thanks!

[qesehmk]

All ... we will use this thread for 2014.

The 2013 posts are moved to this thread. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ulations)-2013

The current thread will be cleaned off 2013 posts over time.

[Vkkpnm]

NewsFlash! FY13 Employment-Based Visa Number Limits Reached

http://www.murthy.com/2013/09/27/new...imits-reached/

[primus]

NewsFlash! FY13 Employment-Based Visa Number Limits Reached

http://www.murthy.com/2013/09/27/new...imits-reached/

Damn!

Anyway, how many EB2 visa numbers will be allocated to EB2 India every month from October 1st onward?

[JosephM]

So what was the idea behind moving the dates in Aug 2013 and Sep 2013 if there was enough backlogs to consume all the Visa numbers? Or is it that the dates were moved too much?

[qesehmk]

So what was the idea behind moving the dates in Aug 2013 and Sep 2013 if there was enough backlogs to consume all the Visa numbers? Or is it that the dates were moved too much?

They moved the dates just enough to consume almost all the backlog till those dates.

[Pedro Gonzales]

So what was the idea behind moving the dates in Aug 2013 and Sep 2013 if there was enough backlogs to consume all the Visa numbers? Or is it that the dates were moved too much?

This is actually a good thing. Visas numbers were not wasted for the year. Now, we wait for the demand data to see how much the dueling powers of spillover vs. porting had on EB2I demand. In the meantime, I'm sure approvals will start flowing again tomorrow for EB2I without regard to any limits.

[idiotic]

In the meantime, I'm sure approvals will start flowing again tomorrow for EB2I without regard to any limits.

Hi Pedro,

Just for my understanding..

Do you mean that approvals will start coming for those who had been allocated an visa number already before Sept 31.

(or)

Fresh visas will be allocated from FY2014 quota. If so, what do you think the max number of visas which can be allocated in next month?