EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[Jagan01]

@RogerFederer - Looks like we share the receipt date and the fate. am still waiting too...

@Gurus - Just wanted to check if anyone has done any analysis or estimates on how many GCs have been used up so far (in Aug/Sep) for EB2I? And how much are remaining? Looking at the pace of approvals, looks like there is a higher chance of GCs running out then getting wasted - is that correct?

Thanks for your thoughts in advance!!

-- (Patiently waiting) Techsavvy1973

Yes the visas would most likely not get wasted. How soon they run out is difficult to say but most likely they wouldn't run out before the last week of Sept.

[RogerFederer]

Yes the visas would most likely not get wasted. How soon they run out is difficult to say but most likely they wouldn't run out before the last week of Sept.

Hmm so random it is .. waiting continues..hopefully tomorrow will be my day

[Bharmanandam]

My PD is FEB 2008; got an RFE responded back in July 24; no sign of movement in my file... God only knows when I would get it ...

My case is with Texas Service Center ... dependents also received an RFE responded back in Aug 24th ... Any prediction on movement greatly appreciated ....


thanks

[qesehmk]

Bharmanandam

Welcome to forum. It is difficult to make a prediction on individual cases.

Clearly your case has some unresolved issues. It might be worthwhile to take an infopass and/or approach your senator/congressman for help. I wish you the best.

My PD is FEB 2008; got an RFE responded back in July 24; no sign of movement in my file... God only knows when I would get it ...

My case is with Texas Service Center ... dependents also received an RFE responded back in Aug 24th ... Any prediction on movement greatly appreciated ....


thanks

[geterdone]

I have a feeling that he is staying away due to a comment that was made on this forum. I am not going into details. I may be wrong.

Spec may be away on vacation... I guess that is the reason...

[druvraj]

Today is the 7th processing day in Sept for those waiting for GC. Since this also the last month for this visa year I feel that once we reach 12th day of processing for Sept then we will definitely see approvals slowing down. I am getting nervous by the hr. God know whats in store for me.

[Still_Waiting]

Based on Trackitt, first time I-485 and EAD filers in August 2013 are now recieving their EAD cards. Some have recieved EAD cards with one year validity while others have two years of validity. Now there's rampant speculation that applicants who were granted a one-year EAD are more likely to recieve their GC before possible upcoming retrogression in the next month or two while those with a two-year EAD will have to wait until summer next year to get their GCs. Do any of you think that there's any possibility of that being the case.

A little further digging shows that someone with a PD of Dec 13, 2007 got a one year EAD while another with a Dec 19, 2007 PD got a two-year EAD. If the logic applies, then dates should retrogress back to somewhere between Dec 13 and Dec 19, 2007. Of course this whole argument is very simplistic because we simply don't have enough data points and I have no way of knowing if people with PDs before that date have a one or two year EAD.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...g-2013/page/59

[ontheedge]

Today is the 7th processing day in Sept for those waiting for GC. Since this also the last month for this visa year I feel that once we reach 12th day of processing for Sept then we will definitely see approvals slowing down.

Druvraj, why do you feel there will be a slowdown after the 12th day of processing? Based on past month's experience?

[ontheedge]

Some have recieved EAD cards with one year validity while others have two years of validity. Now there's rampant speculation that applicants who were granted a one-year EAD are more likely to recieve their GC before possible upcoming retrogression in the next month or two while those with a two-year EAD will have to wait until summer next year to get their GCs. Do any of you think that there's any possibility of that being the case.

This happened last year too, and I was one of the folks that received a one year EAD, yet no approval. The same theories were floated around at that time. And we know how far the dates went back.

[Bharmanandam]

Bharmanandam

Welcome to forum. It is difficult to make a prediction on individual cases.

Clearly your case has some unresolved issues. It might be worthwhile to take an infopass and/or approach your senator/congressman for help. I wish you the best.

.

My case is not yet passed the 60 day processing time. In couple of weeks from now it will pass, and I will give a call to Texas Service Center. Thank you very much for very valuable suggestions and prediction.

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

Diverging from the CPO-based discussion, are there any chances for the dates to move forward - 'coz of factors like PERM approval slowdown, EB-1/EB-2 WW usage - in the 2nd qtr or there isn't a chance that dates shall not move until last qtr. My date is end july '08.

[ragx08]

Finally got approved, after 6.5 years long wait.

Congratulations Summer!!!

[vizcard]

I dont quite understand how the dates stayed the same. To me it implies 1 or a combo of 4 things - all of which are a lil hard to believe.
1. CO doesn't have faith that USCIS will consume this FYs quota and is planning on carrying it over (which is technically illegal)
2. CO expects monthly demand of less than 230 for Oct - Again really hard to believe.
3. CO is applying QSP early in the quarter - again a risky call.
4. CO simply screwed up on the VB dates

There has to be some internal retrogression mechanism. I really can't see too many approvals happening beyond Week 1 in Oct unless something goofy is going on (over and above this).

PS: Id love to see some updated DD

[Jagan01]

Diverging from the CPO-based discussion, are there any chances for the dates to move forward - 'coz of factors like PERM approval slowdown, EB-1/EB-2 WW usage - in the 2nd qtr or there isn't a chance that dates shall not move until last qtr. My date is end july '08.

Dates wont move ahead. The only way they can move ahead is if the CO applies QSP (Quaterly Spillover). That was done once in the past (2011) and it was a fiasco.

[Jagan01]

I dont quite understand how the dates stayed the same. To me it implies 1 or a combo of 4 things - all of which are a lil hard to believe.
1. CO doesn't have faith that USCIS will consume this FYs quota and is planning on carrying it over (which is technically illegal)
2. CO expects monthly demand of less than 230 for Oct - Again really hard to believe.
3. CO is applying QSP early in the quarter - again a risky call.
4. CO simply screwed up on the VB dates

There has to be some internal retrogression mechanism. I really can't see too many approvals happening beyond Week 1 in Oct unless something goofy is going on (over and above this).

PS: Id love to see some updated DD

Dates stayed the same as the demand has not surfaced yet. The first time I-485 applicants (EB3 to EB2 porters post Aug 2007), would have been filing their applications and they would be reflected in the demand around Nov. Hence, the dates will retrogress in Dec 2013.

So according to the stats there will be very few applicants left before June 2008 in the demand data until Nov DD is published. CO might think that 230 is enough to handle them and in the worst case he will apply QSP.

I am sure that he will retrogress dates in Dec 2013 bulletin.

[qesehmk]

Viz - here is my theory.

In the past when CO moved dates back in Oct .... it meant his prior movement was aggressive. Aggressive movement is intended to ensure no visas are wasted. Come october he retrogressed to a level he knew doesn't require retrogression.

However - this time it looks like the movement was very very well calibrated. So there is no need for retrogression unless CO gets hold of new data that tells him that retrogression is required.

Such new data is not going to be available by mid sep. It will become available by mid of Oct or end of Oct. It can mean only one thing that the real chances of retrogression should be for Dec bulletin rather than Nov. That's why I kept Nov retro chances at 50-50.

I dont quite understand how the dates stayed the same. To me it implies 1 or a combo of 4 things - all of which are a lil hard to believe.
1. CO doesn't have faith that USCIS will consume this FYs quota and is planning on carrying it over (which is technically illegal)
2. CO expects monthly demand of less than 230 for Oct - Again really hard to believe.
3. CO is applying QSP early in the quarter - again a risky call.
4. CO simply screwed up on the VB dates

There has to be some internal retrogression mechanism. I really can't see too many approvals happening beyond Week 1 in Oct unless something goofy is going on (over and above this).

PS: Id love to see some updated DD

[vizcard]

Viz - here is my theory.

In the past when CO moved dates back in Oct .... it meant his prior movement was aggressive. Aggressive movement is intended to ensure no visas are wasted. Come october he retrogressed to a level he knew doesn't require retrogression.

However - this time it looks like the movement was very very well calibrated. So there is no need for retrogression unless CO gets hold of new data that tells him that retrogression is required.

Such new data is not going to be available by mid sep. It will become available by mid of Oct or end of Oct. It can mean only one thing that the real chances of retrogression should be for Dec bulletin rather than Nov. That's why I kept Nov retro chances at 50-50.

mathematically it still doesn't make sense even with known info. Demand up to June 15 (from June DD) is approx. 16.5K. This is known. Now even if you assume 2.5K (low balling) of the porting came in between Aug 1 and Sept 10... we are in the 19K range. By keeping dates steady it would imply that there is enough SOFAD to cover 19K known demand plus the rest of Sept.

[luckycub]

Gurus - Could you guys please predict where the cut off dates will be for EB2C in the FY2014? Thanks a lot!

[qesehmk]

mathematically it still doesn't make sense even with known info. Demand up to June 15 (from June DD) is approx. 16.5K. This is known. Now even if you assume 2.5K (low balling) of the porting came in between Aug 1 and Sept 10... we are in the 19K range. By keeping dates steady it would imply that there is enough SOFAD to cover 19K known demand plus the rest of Sept.

SOFAD is something that we always know really well after the fact. So until then it's all conjecture. 16 or 19K is the same thing and I would imagine he date movement had baked these things in. For CO to move date in Oct he either should've already known that he made an unsustainable movement in prior year just to make sure no wastage. So whatever that number was - 16-19K or something else - if CO calibrated it well then, then he can't move until new data shows that in October there is too much demand compared to supply. Since OCT bulletin is published in Sep he chose to not move dates at all for EB2I. But he did so for EB2C because of the new numbers that became available with new year.

p.s.- On another note - why would there be 2.5K porting in just one single month. I didn't understand that part.

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

Is there any reliable/guesstimated statistic on the average spillover EB-2 has received/has a probability of receiving for a FY? For the sake of discussion/clarity, assume the sample period to be from FY 2007 - 2013.

[Jun1308]

Gurus,

With the EB2 dates remaining same in October, do we still see any percentage of applications < June 15 2008 (including porting) untouched or not picked by officers before October end ?

[vizcard]

SOFAD is something that we always know really well after the fact. So until then it's all conjecture. 16 or 19K is the same thing and I would imagine he date movement had baked these things in. For CO to move date in Oct he either should've already known that he made an unsustainable movement in prior year just to make sure no wastage. So whatever that number was - 16-19K or something else - if CO calibrated it well then, then he can't move until new data shows that in October there is too much demand compared to supply. Since OCT bulletin is published in Sep he chose to not move dates at all for EB2I. But he did so for EB2C because of the new numbers that became available with new year.

p.s.- On another note - why would there be 2.5K porting in just one single month. I didn't understand that part.

You are giving CO a lot of credit

what I mean by 2.5k is that there are these porting cases that were previously "invisible" to CO that are just a "flip the switch" exercise the moment the dates got current.

[qesehmk]

You are giving CO a lot of credit

LoL! You could be right.

[Jagan01]

Gurus,

With the EB2 dates remaining same in October, do we still see any percentage of applications < June 15 2008 (including porting) untouched or not picked by officers before October end ?

The only possibility is Internal Retrogression of dates. In case the visa numbers are over and CO doesn't want to add QSP then he can internally retrogress the dates and stop giving visas in the first week of Oct.

[vizcard]

The only possibility is Internal Retrogression of dates. In case the visa numbers are over and CO doesn't want to add QSP then he can internally retrogress the dates and stop giving visas in the first week of Oct.

I've always questioned the legality of "internal retrogression". Perhaps Kanmani (if she's around) or Pedro can comment on that.