EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[NOV2007]

Based on Last week DD even if CO applies 8000 from SO, the dates will move into 2008JAN in JULY2013 VB. He cann't apply less than 9000 from SO for July2013VB. And in AUG2013VB he will definitely apply all the remaining SO and this will ensure PD will move to atleast APR2008. And I believe QESEH theory where in CO cann't retrogress in SEPT2013VB since annual monthly quota of 232 visas will be available. May be in the worst scenario he might retrogress in OCT2013VB. Otherwise as Qeseh said in his earlier post it will be in DEC2013 we can see dates getting retrogressed.

With I-485 already pending, conversion of category from EB3 to EB2 is just matter of seconds, but it cannot be done until the priority date in EB2 is current.

Eventhough USCIS has converted the porters to EB2, it is ofcourse not official , so at this point of time they cannot request for a visa number from DoS, considering the above fact, current demand does not include the porters. Opinions may differ .

[Kanmani]

But the porters are offcially considered as EB2 from 1st August 2013 and right away eligible for visa number allocation!

Porters do have a share in the spillover allocation.

As such it looks complicated , but my guess is there should be some understanding between the agencies in this matter.

[indiani]

But the porters are offcially considered as EB2 from 1st August 2013 and right away eligible for visa number allocation!

Porters do have a share in the spillover allocation.

As such it looks complicated , but my guess is there should be some understanding between the agencies in this matter.

Porters who already previous applied for 485 and finished fingerprinting etc. will get GC in few days to couple of weeks.

Porters who never have applied for 485 before will not get GC this fiscal year.

For example anyone who had PD of oct 2007 EB3 would never had a chance to apply for 485 .

[bieber]

Based on the visa bulletin language, it doesn't look like the expected porting demand is realized in the demand data and date movement will reflect that only after few months

[indiani]

With I-485 already pending, conversion of category from EB3 to EB2 is just matter of seconds, but it cannot be done until the priority date in EB2 is current.

Eventhough USCIS has converted the porters to EB2, it is ofcourse not official , so at this point of time they cannot request for a visa number from DoS, considering the above fact, current demand does not include the porters. Opinions may differ .

I agree completely the DD doesn't reflect additional 4-5K porters who will get GC immediately once dates are moved but there will be some porters who never applied for 485 before in any category will not get GC right away.

I think dates might not move too far from feb 2013, even now ( after fragomen news ) I am not 100% sure that Nov 2007 will be covered this fiscal year. But I have pinned all my hopes on it as it will be devastating blow if they don't even move that far.

[indiani]

With I-485 already pending, conversion of category from EB3 to EB2 is just matter of seconds, but it cannot be done until the priority date in EB2 is current.

Eventhough USCIS has converted the porters to EB2, it is ofcourse not official , so at this point of time they cannot request for a visa number from DoS, considering the above fact, current demand does not include the porters. Opinions may differ .

I agree completely the DD doesn't reflect additional 4-5K porters who will get GC immediately once dates are moved but there will be some porters who never applied for 485 before in any category will not get GC right away.

I think dates might not move too far from feb 2013, even now ( after fragomen news ) I am not 100% sure that Nov 2007 will be covered this fiscal year. But I have pinned all my hopes on it as it will be devastating blow if they don't even move that far.

[cbordu_111]

Hi Guys,

Sorry for reposting my question. I really do value your opinion here could someone who has had experience with this provide an insight to me. Please move this to an appropriate thread as I didn't find a thread pertaining to the following questions. Reposting it again I apologize for any inconvinience.

Hi guys, I needed your opinion on something. I apologize if I am posting in the wrong thread but if someone could give suggestions on my case it will be very helpful.

I am currently EB3-I with a priority date of Feb 2012 my I-140 is approved and like everyone from India chargeability am waiting for that fateful day when my priority date will be current. In the July visa bulletin CO has indicated that the F2A category could become current at some point during the coming months and this is where I might be lucky. So I got married in the US in March of 2009 to someone who is 6 years older than me and the marriage is registered in the state of Iowa. My wife is a legal permanent resident since Dec of 2008. Our marriage was very low key with just my wife’s mother attending the wedding and no one else. We do not have a joint account and since 2009 have been filing our taxes as married filing separately. Our lease agreement has both our names on it and she is on my health insurance plan. My question to the gurus are the following:

1. If I file a new petition in the next few weeks under F2A category (basically file my I-130 and if I am lucky I-485) will my EB3-I petition get affected by any chance?
2. If the F2A dates become current say in the August visa bulletin can I file for I-485 under F2A assuming that I send out my I-130 petition by end of June and is there any chance that it might somehow effect my I-485 on EB3-I in the future?
3. Given my circumstance considering we don’t have a joint account and we file our taxes as married filing separately will that be an issue when I submit my I-130?
4. I was wondering if anybody has any opinion about me self filing I-130 and I-485 instead of hiring a lawyer and can anyone provide a guidance to the document list that I should be sending with my petition?

I would like to thank anyone who can provide some insight with this regards, it will be very helpful.

[Sirisha]

India: At this time it appears that the availability of “otherwise unused” Employment Second preference numbers will allow for movement of this cut-off date in August and/or September. It is expected that such movement will generate heavy new applicant demand, primarily by those who are upgrading their status from the Employment Third preference category. A sustained level of heavy demand could impact the cut-off date at some point during fiscal year 2014.

So, Does this mean that the dates will move to 2008/2009?

[pdmay2008]

One of the trackitt user reporting that he got RFE for wife vaccinations and his Priority date is July 2008. Does this indicate any thing for the date movement. He applied his I-485 back in Feb-2012.

[NOV2007]

I guess even if CO applies 9000 from SO,dates will move into DEC2007. And we are expecting SO atleast 13000. He cann't lessen SO in AUG2013VB to less than 9000 because CO will be left with one more month to apply all the remaining SO. I strongly feel all the SO will be applied in AUG2013VB and date will be moved to Mar2008. If not Date will be moved to JAN2008 in AUG2013VB and remaining SO will be applied in SEP2013VB and date will be set to APR2008(Higher end Jun2008). Another factor need to consider is, amount of work for USCIS when SO is applied.
If all SO is applied in AUG2013VB they will have 2 months time to work on applications, otherwise by splitting SO in the last 2 months of this FY, they cann't properly estimate amount of work load on each month. So am pretty confident date will move to atleast 2008JAN in the next bulletin.

I agree completely the DD doesn't reflect additional 4-5K porters who will get GC immediately once dates are moved but there will be some porters who never applied for 485 before in any category will not get GC right away.

I think dates might not move too far from feb 2013, even now ( after fragomen news ) I am not 100% sure that Nov 2007 will be covered this fiscal year. But I have pinned all my hopes on it as it will be devastating blow if they don't even move that far.

[YTeleven]

With I-485 already pending, conversion of category from EB3 to EB2 is just matter of seconds, but it cannot be done until the priority date in EB2 is current.

Eventhough USCIS has converted the porters to EB2, it is ofcourse not official , so at this point of time they cannot request for a visa number from DoS, considering the above fact, current demand does not include the porters. Opinions may differ .

I think the current DD has porters data. For example if you consider the DEC'12 DD and Current DD there is a increase of 500 applications for EB2I between the year 1/1/2005 to 1/1/2006. These 500 newly added applications are from the porters for last six months.
Like wise during other years we see there is a decrease in EB3I and an increase in EB2I.
Here is the yearly breakup of application reductions in EB3I so far in this fiscal year:
2002 | -2475
2003 | -1300
2004 | -1175
2005 | -550
2006 | -625
2007 | -250
---------------
Total:| -6375
---------------

Here is the yearly breakup of EB2I applications as of today:
2004 | 475
2005 | 800
2006 | 1200
2007 | 5575
2008 | 16150
2009 | 13850
2010 | 5050
----------------
Total:| 43100
----------------
if you compare the second table data against a Oct'12 inventory or Dec'12 DD you will recognize how are the Applications added to various years.

Also, the current USCIS systems are intelligent enough to detect if an applicant filed multiple I-140s to find the oldest PD from oldest I-140 for that applicant.
One of my friend filed a new I-140 with new employer and gave the Old PD and system has identified that person has got more than 2 I-140s and he even don't know some of them as the previous employers didn't gave him the info of those petitions and he was lucky to get an oldest PD from those unknown I-140s filed by previous employers to him.

[vizcard]

So, Does this mean that the dates will move to 2008/2009?

dates will definitely move in to early 2008 and definitely not move beyond Sept 2008. I'm not predicting a COD of Sept... I personally believe a max cut off of June 2008 but no movement in July VB gives some wiggle room now.

[Kanmani]

"If the case is not within the established cut-off date the request goes into our “pending” demand file, which also contains the demand which has been received from our overseas posts. That demand is then used as the basis for the establishment of future cut-off dates.

When a USCIS authorization is made from the “pending” demand file an e-mail message is sent to a single address which each CIS Office has provided to the Immigrant Control and Reporting Division. The first page(s) of the message provides a summary listing of the A-numbers which have been authorized, and the following pages contain an individual authorization page for each A-number. That listing would be the same type as received if the case had been authorized when the USCIS Officer had originally submitted the request. Such authorizations are assumed to have been processed to conclusion during the month of authorization. If not, USCIS must notify VO that the case was not processed, the case record would then be deleted, and the case would be resubmitted to VO once the reasons for the deletion have been resolved.

The authorizations from the “pending” demand file are sent to a central address to ensure that they are seen by someone should the officer who originally requested the case not be there (e.g., reassigned, on leave, etc.). If authorization is immediately available at the time of request the response would be send to the requesting officer, not the central address."


Guys,

The backlog reduction using unused numbers is as systematic as described above. Each Alien number is allotted with a visa number as per the pending list and no lottery system !

All the best!

[indiani]

I think the current DD has porters data. For example if you consider the DEC'12 DD and Current DD there is a increase of 500 applications for EB2I between the year 1/1/2005 to 1/1/2006. These 500 newly added applications are from the porters for last six months.
Like wise during other years we see there is a decrease in EB3I and an increase in EB2I.
Here is the yearly breakup of application reductions in EB3I so far in this fiscal year:
2002 | -2475
2003 | -1300
2004 | -1175
2005 | -550
2006 | -625
2007 | -250
---------------
Total:| -6375
---------------

Here is the yearly breakup of EB2I applications as of today:
2004 | 475
2005 | 800
2006 | 1200
2007 | 5575
2008 | 16150
2009 | 13850
2010 | 5050
----------------
Total:| 43100
----------------
if you compare the second table data against a Oct'12 inventory or Dec'12 DD you will recognize how are the Applications added to various years.

Also, the current USCIS systems are intelligent enough to detect if an applicant filed multiple I-140s to find the oldest PD from oldest I-140 for that applicant.
One of my friend filed a new I-140 with new employer and gave the Old PD and system has identified that person has got more than 2 I-140s and he even don't know some of them as the previous employers didn't gave him the info of those petitions and he was lucky to get an oldest PD from those unknown I-140s filed by previous employers to him.

I think what you are describing is true for someone who has existing I-485 in EB-3 category .

there are some porters who just have old I-140 in EB3 with PD ( but not I-485, people who missed the 2007 fiasco) before summer 2007 and almost everyone after summer 2007 ( I mean porters) do not have existing i-485. these kind of applicants won't consume GC this fiscal year.

i think CO might have just 10K or so spillover but not 14-15 like some of us were hopeful of.
Thats why he is planning to move upto Feb 2008.
( he might do in 2 steps now or just one step in august and keep it the same for sept )

[natvyas]

Spec - Any updates to your prediction?

[Kanmani]

cbordu_111,

It seems many of us are unfamiliar with FB details, I have very little information.

Your EB3 I-140 is valid as long as the job is available to you. You can have multiple immigrant visa petitions approved under different category, but only one visa number is allotted per Alien Number.

I read in one attorney's website that, USCIS avoids multiple I-485 filings and asks to withdraw them except one. If it is true then, whenever F2A is current, you may need to file only I-130 , upon approval send a request to consider your pending I-485 case under family based.

Overall, your case needs a knowledgeable attorney.

[indiani]

I have compared DD and also inventories; Porters have been added consistently over the last 9 months.

New porters ( folks who never filed 485 before ) will not consume any GC's ( unless some lucky ones get within 60 days ) so no one has to worry about the unknown number of porters suddenly appearing.( folks who are anticipating their GC in next fiscal year need to worry about them)

The SO will be applied completely to india . China won't get the 7% ( I believe someone said they might, my recollection might be poor about this ). CO's ( courtesy Fragomen) prediction that China dates move only few weeks is the reason.

The total SO available appears to be roughly 10K ( as 10K is needed to clear till Feb 2008.)

Anyone who want to contradict , please explain why ?

[desitiger]

I know Fragomen's statement gave us the Feb 2008 movement detail but any chance the dates move a little bit more to end of March 2008

[Vkkpnm]

Hi,

My PD is Dec 2007. I could not file my i485 so far. Are there chances that I receive my GC this year or I have to settle with EAD ONLY. In that scenario, when can I expect my GC?

Thanks

[sreddy]

Hi,

My PD is Dec 2007. I could not file my i485 so far. Are there chances that I receive my GC this year or I have to settle with EAD ONLY. In that scenario, when can I expect my GC?

Thanks

You will get EAD for sure, but hard to make predictions on your GC becuase processing 485 takes overt 60 days that I have seen. And no one knows where the dates are going to be after porters start hitting inventory. With CO making so cautious moves, I doubt you have a chance this year (sorry if I put cold water on your hopes).

[GCKnowHow]

July VB http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_5993.html

India
EB3 moved from 08 Jan 03 to 22 JAN 03

China
EB2 moved from 15 Jul 08 to 08 AUG 08 ---> (08/08/08)
EB3 moved from 01 Sep 08 to 01 Jan 09
Others moved from 22 OCT 03 to 22 Mar 04

Mexico
EB3 moved from 01 Sep 08 to 01 Jan 09
Others moved from 01 Sep 08 to 01 Jan 09

All Chargeability Areas Except listed
EB3 moved from 01 Sep 08 to 01 Jan 09
Others moved from 01 Sep 08 to 01 Jan 09

[Vkkpnm]

You will get EAD for sure, but hard to make predictions on your GC becuase processing 485 takes overt 60 days that I have seen. And no one knows where the dates are going to be after porters start hitting inventory. With CO making so cautious moves, I doubt you have a chance this year (sorry if I put cold water on your hopes).

Thanks for the reply. So PD date will retrogress back in October/November visa bulletin?

[sreddy]

Thanks for the reply. So PD date will retrogress back in October/November visa bulletin?

As soon as Portering demamand hits inventory, I think that is going to be in November VB.

[GCKnowHow]

July VB http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_5993.html

Does this mean there is going to be a big movement next month? CO is keeping everyone in big suspense.

[Kanmani]

Here is why I think porters are not included in the Demand Data yet.

"DOS Immigrant Visa Allocation Management System (IVAMS) permits only one visa request per alien registration number (A-number) – i.e., only one visa request can be pending in the system for a particular alien.

Applicants who want to change their green card application from employment-based to family-based must initiate a request with USCIS. When USCIS receives a request to change an employment-based green card application (for which a visa is not available) to a family-based green card application (for which a visa is available), the Service Center contacts DOS to ask that the pending employment-based visa request be deleted from IVAMS."

Source : uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Ombudsman%20Liaison/Responses%20to%20Annual%20Reports/cisomb-2010-annual-report-response.pdf

From the above, considering one pending visa request per A.No , whenever uscis asks visa number for a porting case, they must delete the already pending request from the system . Eb3 cannot have two AOS(I-485) pending at the same time (1 in E2 & 1 in E3 is not allowed anymore, converting the existing to other basis is encouraged) , whenever there is an addtion to EB2 in the demand data, there must be a deletion in the eb3 total, which is not happening in any of the DD consistantly.

According to Murthy law firm,

"The interfiling request should be based on a priority date that is current, although many such requests are initiated prior to that point. Regardless, no action is taken by the USCIS unless the priority date under the new basis case is current. "