another anxious 30-33 days to go.
when I decided to come to this country in 2000, I had no clue about this whole mess that we are seeing now.
I don't think anyone would have predicted at that time ( 13 yrs ago ) and partly the boom in the IT sector and partly inefficiency of uscis ( then INS ) and labor dept. all added to this rather pathetic condition.
anyone have suggestion about how they plan to kill these anxious coming days
Why would the CO care between someone who ported from EB3 to EB2 or original EB2 filers? I mean he could have always moved it by say 3-6 months to see the response right, but he stayed put at Sept 2004. Is there a possibility that he did not have enough information in time to move the dates?
If we assume Fragomen info if genuine, then he already knows there are enough visas to cover till feb 2008.Originally Posted by sandyn16
So apart from stopping new applicants from getting Gc's thhis fiscal year ,I can't see any other logic to wait till aug/sept.
He certainly does not have any data on EB3-I who have priority date after July 2007(they have not filed I-485 yet). He is worried about how much that demand would be. EB3-I applicants before July 2007 have their EADs and some of them are not worried to port and get into faster lane. CO is aware that when he moves dates anything above July 2007 will generate new I-485s demand from EB3-I porters. He is very cautious to move dates to guage the demand. I believe in August bulletin he moves dates to Feb 2008 as he mentioned to Fragomen. All the new I-485s will not become documentarily qualified(so called demand) before August 10th(That's when he releases September Bulletin). And he does not need to take these new I-485s into equation to decide September cutoff date.
To decide September cutoff date he will have approximately correct number of unused numbers and demand data. It will be easier for him to decide the further movement at that time.
Need inputs from Gurus: I heard last year or year before that Visa number gets allocated to documentarily qualified applicants in September and GC can be issued in October even if it is new fiscal year and/or dates get retrogressed. Is this true?
TSC || PD: May-2008 || RD: 04-Jan-2012 || ND: 06-Jan-2012 || FP: 20-Mar-2012|| EAD/AP: 13-Feb-2012 || I-485: Waiting... Waiting...
I personally don't think CO would care to limit porting. He has enough ready to go demand and is just being cautious. Just an opinion.
I am not a lawyer, and it's always best to consult an immigration attorney.
I think with the fast improving I 485 processing times, most porters will also get greened when the flood gates open up. From past data what we can understand is that FBI background check doesnt take that long anymore unless they decide to further screen the individual.
btw folks have to understand that most porters have been in this country for around 10 years or longer, have been thru the worst , compared to folks who graduated in 2008 or later and had an eb2 to start with. So it is actually very fair to allow porting when those individuals qualify for EB2. Everyone wants to beat the queue and get it done with (especially when the get a masters degree), but Im happy with the way it is. 80 to 90 % of EB2 India folks are in software jobs which doesnt require masters degree or a lot of academic skills and hence if very strict qualification rules are set in place those PERMs should have never been approved. (currently everyone is gaming the system and hence no point in crying foul)
Its strange to see EB3 china advance to 01/2009 and EB2 China stuck at 08/2008.
Is just an application build up as EB2 China had last year when they were May 2010. EB2 China how is 8/2008 it well get his GC next month because they are pre adjucated, EB3 China
8/2008 probably it will take them at least another year until they get the GC.
Some time back on this thread if people remember I had posted the conversation I had with attorney David Ware. It seems what he said then was correct. He had told me movement would be late in the year. The Only part where he seems to have been wrong was he had said movement would be only a few weeks. Looks like in April that was the projection from DOS and now last week it seems with better understanding of visa usage they seem confident of moving to 2008. Hopefully dates move in august though I would bet on sept as that is a safer move for CO to make.
BTW - Spec - you had promised us a prediction after the bulletin. Do you have one for us? Atleast I am waiting to hear your thoughts and analysis
Somehow CO always manages to press the right buttons to annoy the beep out of me even when he has good news. His choice of words!!! I feel so restless and frustrated that there was no movement for eb2i in July bulletin.
I have a late 2008 eb2i pd and I used to have some false confidence that I will get my GC by the end of FY2014. But reality hit me yesterday and I dont think so anymore, I think it will be more like a scary movie titled "FY2014: The Wrath of EB3I Porters." And it kept me up last night. Porting numbers from pre-july 2007 eb3i may be something but its a completely different ball game when porters from post-July 2007 enter the field.
Spec - Loved your post; I haven't heard anyone use "obtuse" in a sentence since Shawshank Redemption.
Spec/Q - for a novice like me, estimating the number of porters or overall new applicants in August/September once the dates advance is just a wild shoot. But you guys can probably guesstimate those numbers from some known data/trend and sheer intuition. So, please indulge me...if the dates for Eb2i are to forward to march 1 2008 this August no more no less, stay there till the end of September and retrogress back to say Jan1 2005 in October....what do you think will be the cumulative number of pending eb2 i485s until the end of feb2008 that we will see in the pending inventory released in jan 2014? I would really appreciate anything you can give me on this.
I am neither spec/Q but have been in this journey for a while and followed the movements etc.,
I have a piece of advice for whatever its worth.
I have ruined my life more or less depending on possible movements and making almost every plan in life based on that and it is in fact intricately involved with movements and GC.
my sister rarely worries as she isn't even considering ever getting GC thorugh EB3I as she planned assuming she would never get GC ( even though at some point when her kids become 21 she will ).
Only after september and also especially after 1st Q of 2014 will anyone have even a clue of where things are especially with CIR in horizon for next fiscal yr onwards.
Historically EB2I has received every year several thousands and EB2WW demand will go down next yr but may be most of the new porters will just apply and fill DD so these two will balance out., now you canmake your own estimations and of course you might hear from the greatest expert of our time spec.
I just hope no one would end up in the rather pathetic situation like mine., stay on the forum and lets help each other out but only piece of advice is the unpredictability factor is very very high.
There is an interesting pattern on EB2 ROW approvals this year which may explain why there was no advancement in EB2 I/C dates. This is from Trackitt EB2 ROW approvals primary only.
Oct 2012 to May 2013 - 754
Oct 2011 to May 2012 - 588
This represents 28% extra consumption.
Now we do know that last year due to high volume approvals for EB2 I/C in feb / mar 2012 these were far more than the numbers could support so ROW cases approval did move to the next year.
So we should filter out Oct and Nov 2012 and then compare over the corresponding periods.
Dec 2012 to May 2013 - 527
Dec 2011 to May 2013 - 489
If we compare these time durations then the numbers are comparable.
EB2 Mexico and Philippines normally do not consume much in EB2, EB2 I/C would take their share. Easily we can see that ROW would take 8- 10K extra visa this year when compared to last year.
With this most likely Eb2 Row would not give any SOFAD, however the numbers do indicate that it would not take any SOFAD away either that would come from EB5 / EB1 including 12K out of 18K extra FB spillover. So even if EB1 does not give anything there is still 12K to apply. But seems like extreme caution is being exercised to use that. Overall EB2 would be SOFAD neutral this year. Kudos to Spec for saying this very early in the year.
Do we think the CO will be cautious in August also and move dates by just few months and then go straight into 2008 in September?
Viz,
IMHO - any benefits to limit porters filing new I-485 and getting approved in FY'13 is nullified with the more and more porters (who have an existing I-485) getting pre-adjudicated or their EB2 I-140s getting approved during this extra one or two month period from now until Aug/Sep.
I would even say new porters (before 2007 without an I-485) filing new I-485 will be less than the new porters (before 2007 with an I-485) who are documentarly getting qualified day by day.
As Spec clearly explained in one of his posts, CO is not sure about how many more visas he may need in the other categories in the next few months (so again there is no strategy from CO, just the lack of data).
Also it looks like he doesn't want to put an "U" against any other category other than EB2I which he cannot becos it should be "U" by now if there are no "otherwise unused visas".
Even with additional 18k FB SO visas, EB2I had such a rough year, think about FY'14 if there are no FB SO and more and more porters from summer'07 and beyond. REALLY SCARY!
It terms of supply, I think FY14 should be similar to FY13 because EB2 WW is going to provide SO which they have done historically (barring this year which was an anomaly)
However the demand might change depending on how far the dates moves.
Again IMHO - EB2 ROW porting and Cross-Chargeability are growing too.
As immigration attorneys say 20-30% of their GC cases are porting cases of some sort, which is a huge #, gonna reduce SO.
Port to EB1 or try NIW if you can.
Otherwise since you have an EAD (most EB2I), play the EB1-C game by finding a good employer, go to India (or any other country), work there for a year as some kinda manager at their offshore shop, come back and apply as a Multi-National manager.
Hi guys, I needed your opinion on something. I apologize if I am posting in the wrong thread but if someone could give suggestions on my case it will be very helpful.
I am currently EB3-I with a priority date of Feb 2012 my I-140 is approved and like everyone from India chargeability am waiting for that fateful day when my priority date will be current. In the July visa bulletin CO has indicated that the F2A category could become current at some point during the coming months and this is where I might be lucky. So I got married in the US in March of 2009 to someone who is 6 years older than me and the marriage is registered in the state of Iowa. My wife is a legal permanent resident since Dec of 2008. Our marriage was very low key with just my wife’s mother attending the wedding and no one else. We do not have a joint account and since 2009 have been filing our taxes as married filing separately. Our lease agreement has both our names on it and she is on my health insurance plan. My question to the gurus are the following:
1. If I file a new petition in the next few weeks under F2A category (basically file my I-130 and if I am lucky I-485) will my EB3-I petition get affected by any chance?
2. If the F2A dates become current say in the August visa bulletin can I file for I-485 under F2A assuming that I send out my I-130 petition by end of June and is there any chance that it might somehow effect my I-485 on EB3-I in the future?
3. Given my circumstance considering we don’t have a joint account and we file our taxes as married filing separately will that be an issue when I submit my I-130?
4. I was wondering if anybody has any opinion about me self filing I-130 and I-485 instead of hiring a lawyer and can anyone provide a guidance to the document list that I should be sending with my petition?
I would like to thank anyone who can provide some insight with this regards, it will be very helpful.
Porting can come from post July 2007 too when the dates move. Giving new filers 2 months vs 3 months limits the impact new filers given processing times. It will impact FY14 but this is the new normal. The only ways things for EB2I significantly improve is CIR or porting to EB1.
"F2A: Could become “Current” at some point during the coming months."
Zero to Very little chance of any FB SO next year. EB2I using SO and getting GCs this year can get married before Sep'13 and their spouses can apply for GCs immediately on F2A.
Employment Third:
Worldwide: No additional movement. This cut-off date has advanced 18 months during the past three months. Such rapid movement can be expected to generate a significant amount of new demand, with the impact not being felt for three to five months. Therefore, the cut-off date will be held until it can be determined what level of demand is to be expected, and whether it is likely to be sustained.
More EADs to EB3 causing easier employment changes next year and more and more EB2 ROW porting.
Porting:
If the update from Fragomen is correct and the dates move to Feb'08 that would mean 10K would be consumed, and per the calculations from Guru's here we were expecting about 15K visa, which means that Porting is 5K.
Year after year we have been paranoid about porting and it always turned out to be in 4-6K range.
I believe current demand data already has porting demand included. As far as I know the only demand that CO does not have demand data for EB3I porting applicants with Priority date After July 2007, who have not filed 485 yet. Having said that this remaining 5K will move dates further(to Mid 2008). If CO thinks he is going to waste VISAs due to processing delays(like RFEs, finger printing etc..), he will move dates further than Mid 2008. This is my opinion feel free to comment.
TSC || PD: May-2008 || RD: 04-Jan-2012 || ND: 06-Jan-2012 || FP: 20-Mar-2012|| EAD/AP: 13-Feb-2012 || I-485: Waiting... Waiting...
I believe current demand data already has porting demand included. As far as I know the only demand that CO does not have demand data for EB3I porting applicants with Priority date After July 2007, who have not filed 485 yet. Having said that this remaining 5K will move dates further(to Mid 2008). If CO thinks he is going to waste VISAs due to processing delays(like RFEs, finger printing etc..), he will move dates further than Mid 2008. This is my opinion feel free to comment.
TSC || PD: May-2008 || RD: 04-Jan-2012 || ND: 06-Jan-2012 || FP: 20-Mar-2012|| EAD/AP: 13-Feb-2012 || I-485: Waiting... Waiting...
Here are my interpretations of VB bulletin:
1- No new EB3 porters post July 2007 will be able to get GC number. EB2I demand data numbers till July 2007 (~4000) and the porters who already have I-1485 from EB3-I can get GC in 2 months period. So August 13 bulletin cutoff date should be July 2007. (around 8-9K total)
2- After above cutoff date, CO do not need to consider EB3I porters in September visa bulletin, as new porters post July 2007 and without I-485 cannot get GC number in just one month. So last cutoff date will depend on total spillovers and CO can definitely use only demand data to set final cutoff date.
With 18K spillover CO may set cutoff date sometime in May 2008.
my 2 cents
With I-485 already pending, conversion of category from EB3 to EB2 is just matter of seconds, but it cannot be done until the priority date in EB2 is current.
Eventhough USCIS has converted the porters to EB2, it is ofcourse not official , so at this point of time they cannot request for a visa number from DoS, considering the above fact, current demand does not include the porters. Opinions may differ.
So current demand data does not include EB3 Porters? Are we sure about this fact, if that is true with 15000 SO it can move the date to Feb 08. If the SOFAD is more than 15000 it moves further than Feb-08.With I-485 already pending, conversion of category from EB3 to EB2 is just matter of seconds, but it cannot be done until the priority date in EB2 is current.
Eventhough USCIS has converted the porters to EB2, it is ofcourse not official , so at this point of time they cannot request for a visa number from DoS, considering the above fact, current demand does not include the porters. Opinions may differ
I wish CO would have given few more clues in this VB to understand his thought process.
TSC || PD: May-2008 || RD: 04-Jan-2012 || ND: 06-Jan-2012 || FP: 20-Mar-2012|| EAD/AP: 13-Feb-2012 || I-485: Waiting... Waiting...
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