EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[drugoi]

I am trying to figure out the "real" timeline to get GC for EB3 middleman with PD mid-2008.
We all know that once demand will be build CO will stop movement and eventually retrogress PD for EB3ROW.
The only data available to us it's PERM, but I have difficulty to make any gestimate from that data.
Any ideas how many eb3row people actually in line?

[ragx08]

I'm eagerly waiting for the July VB to come out with some good news and see some happy faces around once again. Looks like we have to wait till Monday for it! Have a nice weekend - and hope to see lots of happy faces starting next week:-)!!!

Good luck - everyone!!!

[civilengineer]

July Bulletin is out. EB2-I still at at Sep 04.
http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_1360.html

[Teja9999]

Really disappointing

[Kanmani]

"India: At this time it appears that the availability of “otherwise unused” Employment Second preference numbers will allow for movement of this cut-off date in August and/or September. It is expected that such movement will generate heavy new applicant demand, primarily by those who are upgrading their status from the Employment Third preference category. A sustained level of heavy demand could impact the cut-off date at some point during fiscal year 2014."

[natvyas]

This tells me that CO wants to limit the porting cases getting ahead of the regular applications. This leaves him with 2 months to use up the numbers which is do-able given that all cases are pre-adjudicated and probably stacked according to the PD. It also tells me that the Feb-08 is actually a conservative date even though the phrase used "as far as" in the Fragomen update suggests otherwise.

However what beats me is the sentence "A sustained level of heavy demand could impact the cut-off date at some point during fiscal year 2014."

[drysnow]

Another slap in the face .... Again
Sorry for venting.

[gten20]

Oh well! Life goes on.

[NOV2007]

"indiani/Dec2007" will be very dissapointed with this July bulletin. As am disappointed too. There were lots of hopes on this VB, but EB2I have to keep waiting more time I guess. Now I doubt any SO will be applied to EB2I in this FY. If at all if applied in 2 months time PD will hardly cross 2007JAN I guess. Any way we are well practised to sit calm and wait. One thing we need to learn patience is the key to GC.

"India: At this time it appears that the availability of “otherwise unused” Employment Second preference numbers will allow for movement of this cut-off date in August and/or September. It is expected that such movement will generate heavy new applicant demand, primarily by those who are upgrading their status from the Employment Third preference category. A sustained level of heavy demand could impact the cut-off date at some point during fiscal year 2014."

[indiasunil]

Dont worry/disappoint Folks !!..

Aug/Sep. Bulletin's will not disappoint surely for EB2I till Feb 2008.

[pdmay2008]

This tells me that CO wants to limit the porting cases getting ahead of the regular applications. This leaves him with 2 months to use up the numbers which is do-able given that all cases are pre-adjudicated and probably stacked according to the PD. It also tells me that the Feb-08 is actually a conservative date even though the phrase used "as far as" in the Fragomen update suggests otherwise.

However what has beats me is the sentence "A sustained level of heavy demand could impact the cut-off date at some point during fiscal year 2014."

What's in his mind. Is he talking about EB3-I upgrade applicants who have not filed 485 yet?

Moving the dates in August limits the ability of EB3-I applicants with PD after July 2007 to apply for 485 and get approval before he retrogress the dates again. They will be able to apply for I-485 under EB2 directly.

[sreddy]

What's in his mind. Is he talking about EB3-I upgrade applicants who have not filed 485 yet?

Moving the dates in August limits the ability of EB3-I applicants with PD after July 2007 to apply for 485 and get approval before he retrogress the dates again. They will be able to apply for I-485 under EB2 directly.

I think 2012 un predicted demand made him move cautiously this time, kind of not leave any room for changing status to "U".

[natvyas]

My belief in Fragomen's update is further strengthened by the movement of WW-EB3 category which has moved to Jan-09 just as mentioned in the update. In addition to that it will stay there per the July VB, which was also mentioned in that update.

[indiani]

Prediction for 2 more months:

"At this time it appears that the availability of “otherwise unused” Employment Second preference numbers will allow for movement of this cut-off date in August and/or September. It is expected that such movement will generate heavy new applicant demand, primarily by those who are upgrading their status from the Employment Third preference category. A sustained level of heavy demand could impact the cut-off date at some point during fiscal year 2014."

No mention of spillovers from any category other than EB2

No mention of how far approximately it can move.

If CO really mentioned something to Fragomen attorneys why not mention that in VB.

This is utter incompetence on their part to run this like they want without any rationale basis.

last year just b'cos of the rapid movements everything got screwed and they want to repeat the same mistake.

This VB not only deeply dissappointed me, it also made me very angry as I can't comprehend the stupid logic they have about not giving even a 3 month chance for first time filers, not capable of organised GC approvals with FIFO.

The accountability is totally absent.

The AILA meeting at the month end is probably only other chance of any further news from CO apart from the actual august and sept bulletins

[desitiger]

Prediction for 2 more months:

"At this time it appears that the availability of “otherwise unused” Employment Second preference numbers will allow for movement of this cut-off date in August and/or September. It is expected that such movement will generate heavy new applicant demand, primarily by those who are upgrading their status from the Employment Third preference category. A sustained level of heavy demand could impact the cut-off date at some point during fiscal year 2014."

No mention of spillovers from any category.

No mention of how far approximately it can move.

If CO really mentioned something to Fragomen attorneys why not mention that in VB.

This is utter incompetence on their part to run this like they want without any rationale basis.

last year just b'cos of the rapid movements everything got screwed and they want to repeat the same mistake.

Even though this VB not only deeply dissappointed me, also made me very angry as I can't comprehend the stupid logic they have about not giving even a 3 month chance for first time filers, not capable of organised GC approvals of FIFO.

The accountability is totally absent.

The AILA meeting at the month end is probably only other chance of any further news from CO apart from the actual august and sept bulletins

Never trust politicians and govt officials.

[druvraj]

I am flabbergasted. This is absolutely stupid. I guess CO is making sure that EB2I suffers because of what happened last year(Unfortunately EB2I were issued more visas). This is genuinely bad for all of EB2I. Now I am convinced that PD will reach only Aug 1 2007 and starting Oct 1 2013 will go back even further. This year it stopped at Sept 2004 now after this year it will be same as EB3I and will stay there till EB3I makes good progress. CO in my mind is too concerned about porting. EB2I is screwed for a foreseeable future. Those who got GC last year out of turn are indeed lucky.
With the current state of politics no CIR is ever passing till Obama is the president. So till year 2017 be ready to be waiting for your GCs.

[natvyas]

Prediction for 2 more months:

"At this time it appears that the availability of “otherwise unused” Employment Second preference numbers will allow for movement of this cut-off date in August and/or September. It is expected that such movement will generate heavy new applicant demand, primarily by those who are upgrading their status from the Employment Third preference category. A sustained level of heavy demand could impact the cut-off date at some point during fiscal year 2014."

No mention of spillovers from any category other than EB2

No mention of how far approximately it can move.

If CO really mentioned something to Fragomen attorneys why not mention that in VB.

This is utter incompetence on their part to run this like they want without any rationale basis.

last year just b'cos of the rapid movements everything got screwed and they want to repeat the same mistake.

This VB not only deeply dissappointed me, it also made me very angry as I can't comprehend the stupid logic they have about not giving even a 3 month chance for first time filers, not capable of organised GC approvals with FIFO.

The accountability is totally absent.

The AILA meeting at the month end is probably only other chance of any further news from CO apart from the actual august and sept bulletins

Unused numbers can “fall-down” from E1 to E2 to E3. Unused numbers can “fall-up” from E4 and E5 to E1.

It accounts for all fall down from E4, E5 and E1 to E2 and then to E2 India.

[Vkkpnm]

Spec, qesehmk, viz, Matt... Any comments ?

[qesehmk]

Header of the thread updated with VB commentary.

[indiani]

Unused numbers can “fall-down” from E1 to E2 to E3. Unused numbers can “fall-up” from E4 and E5 to E1.

It accounts for all fall down from E4, E5 and E1 to E2 and then to E2 India.

what you have mentioned is the law which is there in every bulletin.

I am trying to interpret the language specifically used in this bulletin and trying to understand the CO thought process.

I am aware of the fact that the unused visas in various categories will come to EB2I (with exception of of course EB3).

[Spectator]

EB2 India: At this time it appears that the availability of “otherwise unused” Employment Second preference numbers will allow for movement of this cut-off date in August and/or September.

CO: I'm still worried how many visas EB1, EB2-WW, EB4 and EB5 might need for the year. I'm going to wait longer before making a move.
Spec: It seems pretty clear that despite the low Trackitt approvals, EB2-I is using at least 285 visas a month. It is even possible EB2-I has already reached the 3,163 limit, or is close to it.

It is expected that such movement will generate heavy new applicant demand, primarily by those who are upgrading their status from the Employment Third preference category.

CO: I'm expecting a lot of porting applications to be approved or adjudicated when I move the dates.

A sustained level of heavy demand could impact the cut-off date at some point during fiscal year 2014.

CO: I'm going to have to retrogress the EB2-I dates several years again when the new FY begins. I thought I would warn you in an obtuse way.


EB3 Worldwide: No additional movement. This cut-off date has advanced 18 months during the past three months. Such rapid movement can be expected to generate a significant amount of new demand, with the impact not being felt for three to five months. Therefore, the cut-off date will be held until it can be determined what level of demand is to be expected, and whether it is likely to be sustained.

CO: I know new demand will be generated from the movement I have made already. Be thankful for it. I also know those lazy ***** at USCIS will take ages to process applications, so I won't see the demand from them for several months. I could move the dates for one more month, but I'm not going to. I'm not going to make the same mistake as last year and have any risk whatsoever of overusing visas. It's safer just to shaft you again.

[indiani]

spec,

Do you think that CO might be seeing plenty of demand in EB1/4/5/WW even now, if he is not so sure b'cos of still heavy demand why would he give feb 2008 dates to Fragomen (if we were to believe thats true- I personally think law firm like fragomen will not post something which they are not sure of )

[indiani]

My attorney said yesterday that she definitely will ask CO ( she believes someone sure would bring the cut off date question ) at AILA at the end of this month.

If he sticks with the same prediction of feb 2008, then I guess he might actually be thinking about moving dates at that time ( aug/sep) , may be he just doesn't like porters consuming any additinal GC's for this fiscal year so he is planning to release it so late that they don't get their GC's this fiscal year. ( I personally do not have anything against porters )

[sbhagwat2000]

EB2 India: At this time it appears that the availability of “otherwise unused” Employment Second preference numbers will allow for movement of this cut-off date in August and/or September.

CO: I'm still worried how many visas EB1, EB2-WW, EB4 and EB5 might need for the year. I'm going to wait longer before making a move.
Spec: It seems pretty clear that despite the low Trackitt approvals, EB2-I is using at least 285 visas a month. It is even possible EB2-I has already reached the 3,163 limit, or is close to it.

It is expected that such movement will generate heavy new applicant demand, primarily by those who are upgrading their status from the Employment Third preference category.

CO: I'm expecting a lot of porting applications to be approved or adjudicated when I move the dates.

A sustained level of heavy demand could impact the cut-off date at some point during fiscal year 2014.

CO: I'm going to have to retrogress the EB2-I dates several years again when the new FY begins. I thought I would warn you in an obtuse way.


EB3 Worldwide: No additional movement. This cut-off date has advanced 18 months during the past three months. Such rapid movement can be expected to generate a significant amount of new demand, with the impact not being felt for three to five months. Therefore, the cut-off date will be held until it can be determined what level of demand is to be expected, and whether it is likely to be sustained.

CO: I know new demand will be generated from the movement I have made already. Be thankful for it. I also know those lazy ***** at USCIS will take ages to process applications, so I won't see the demand from them for several months. I could move the dates for one more month, but I'm not going to. I'm not going to make the same mistake as last year and have any risk whatsoever of overusing visas. It's safer just to shaft you again.

I think on your first point CO I think knows how many visas are available for the year(Otherwise he would not have mentioned 2008 in the conference with Fragoman). He just does not want to give them as he does not want to process any applications than the ones adjudicated and in the queue. If he had moved dates in July then more interfiling applications would have been processed. Since demand is not static he will wait till the end. I think august is going be a wash. September finally there will be movement.

[vizcard]

This is a move to limit porters consuming visas which personally I'm all for. The fundamentals are still the same. The COD date range for me is still Apr to Jun 2008. Of course it could now well be June - Sep 2008 as porting impact will be reduced slightly.