My prediction: 1st month : Dec 2007 and 2nd Month somewhere in 2008 (most probably Dec 2008) and 3rd month go up or down??
My prediction: 1st month : Dec 2007 and 2nd Month somewhere in 2008 (most probably Dec 2008) and 3rd month go up or down??
May I jump in with my numbers too?
SO can range I think from 12K to 32K depending on what the real numbers are and what the pending demand translates into.
As far as date movement for EB2I is concerned, I am not too optimistic on it making it to 2008. If my recollection of past history is correct, then CO will move first to 2006 and then tackle 2007 in the next month. This means a bunch of porters will join the line stalling the date movement further.
July movement is not a done deal either. If CO feels there are too many clouds hanging around on the horizon esp. with EB5 and EB1 usage, then he will be trigger shy and hold off movement.
I'll play the game for a bit of fun, but it is a guess.
July VB - 01JAN07 - depending on his confidence level it could be pushed further, but that is less likely IMO.
August VB - 01AUG07 to 01JAN08 depending on what the numbers look like.
September VB - balance to expected available numbers (with a contingency to cover unexpected low use by other Categories) - maybe March/April 2008 at best.
CO has visibility of the numbers in other Categories, which we don't. Depending on what they look like, it might make a big difference.
Historical movement has been a bit confusing and what happened previously may not apply now.
In FY2008 and FY2009, there was no movement until the August VB. In FY2008, most of the movement was in August, while in FY2009 there was good movement in both August and September.
In FY2010, there was good movement in July/August and relatively little in September.
In FY2011, movement started in May, but most movement was in June/July. August showed little movement and there was no movement in September.
We know what happened last year.
Any guess can be made to look stupid when we see the actual VBs.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
My Guess:
No movement for July, Aug. There will be a move to 2008 more likely towards the end... this kind limits additional backlog via porting and might offer CO the best chance the clear the maximum from pre adjudicated. That being said I hope I am wrong... personally perfer steady movement to random jumps.
Here you go... The spectator turns in to a speculator! What if you lose spec, will you stop predicting (rather calculating)?Originally Posted by Spectator
Of course, just for fun - nothing personal please!
Movement could be July/August and no movement sept, as USCIS will have load of EB3ROW apps to work on starting August
I don't want him to stop calculating, even though I desperately want him to lose, who would like April 2008 as closing COD for Fy'13? :-) How many of us turn into DHS/DoS/USCIS websites for previous years' numbers ? The Facts and Data Section of this forum is a mini handbook needless to say his hard work behind (Thanks to Veni too). Spec, keep going!
Yes, The Facts and Data Section gives us a lot of information. I am definitely sure Spec do put much time and effort into it. Kudos to Spec!
Regarding dates moving beyond March/April 2008, if it happens, will be an added bonus!!
It is bonus season at my company. I'd gladly forego my work bonus if I get my GC this yearUnfortunately that's not likely.
me too....nothing can be more valuable than one's professional freedom. Once we have the GC, I'm sure we can recoup these bonuses in our future work lives!
Matt, I knew April 2008 is the halting point agreed by many, but 2009-ers would like to stretch little more beyond that.
All Gurus,
There was a practice of second finger printing until FY 2008, once the validity of first FP expires in 15 months. I know it did not happen in many cases last FY. Is there any official memo about when is second FP required/ circumstances of second FP waiver?
Thanks,
Matt
The only way 2009 PD could get GC this last Q is if CO will move dates until 2009 or later and skip most of the 2007/2008 PD applicants and give randomly like a lottery.
As there is very little accountability and their own lives won't get affected in anyway, they will do whatever they feel like, even though I suspect with so many pre-adjudicated cases its extremely unlikely that will happen.
Its almost impossible that there is enough spillover to cover 2009, b'cos lets say there was enough spillover then CO might have started moving in 3rd Q and not wait until 4th Q.
My intention is not to kill anyone's hopes but want to give realistic picture so they could make sound judgements based on more accuarate information
indiani, You made my day !!
There are atleast 36k regular applications ahead of me excluding porting, how could I even dream of that happening?
If suppose FY-13 halts at Apr 2008, May-Dec 2008 inventory plus porting will cover the entire FY-14 which would push 2009-ers to wait few more years.
My intention to stretch dates little more was atleast to september 2008, which will give a good start for the rest of 2008 + some 2009 ers.
I agree, my post was not clear, I could bring only 10% of my thoughts into print, my bad.
The logical answer is NO because many 2007 PD applicants who applied in 2012 jan or before should have gotten repeat Finger print notice by now. We did'nt so they just wouldn't ask anyone to re-submit , as far as memo I don't know how to locate one.
1. Multiple biometric data requests.
Many commenters pointed to the fact that applicants or petitioners must provide biometric data more than once. Some commenters considered the expiration of fingerprints submissions to be inefficient. Others suggested that it was inefficient for USCIS to again request fingerprints when they apply for sequential benefit applications. USCIS agrees that an applicant should not be required to provide biometric data multiple times for a single application. USCIS is developing the Biometrics Storage System (BSS) w hich will allow the re-use of fingerprints and, if an application or petition has not been adjudicated within the fifteen month validity period, USCIS will be able to simply re-submit the stored fingerprints to the FBI, without any involvement of the applicant or petitioner. See 72 FR 17172 (Apr. 6, 2007) (establishing a new system of records). Also, as a matter of policy, when an application remains pending, USCIS does not charge the applicant the biometric fee again because of a processing delay at USCIS.
http://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/F...-0-139156.html
2. Question: What can be done to avoid repeated requests for fingerprints when it has already been established in connection with a previous application that the person's fingerprints are non-readable.
Individuals who have physical conditions which make it difficult to obtain readable prints are continually sent back for fingerprints, which delays the final adjudication of the application. This is a hardship for individuals to repeatedly have to return for a procedure which has already been shown to be unobtainable. What is the procedure in a case like this?
Response: USCIS policy establishes the validity period for one set of readable fingerprint results as 15 months.
Where a set of fingerprints are readable, the fingerprint result remains on record with USCIS and may be used to satisfy the fingerprint requirement associated with each and every additional form submitted by, and processed for, the same applicant during the 15 month validity period.
Where an applicant submits a set of fingerprints that quality assurance review suggests is likely to be rejected by the FBI as unable to classify, standard practice in the field is to take a second set of fingerprints on a card using the manual ink method. This card is submitted if and when the first submission is returned as rejected thus alleviating the need for a return visit by the applicant.
If fingerprints are deemed unclassifiable by two sets of rejected prints, applicants shall not be rescheduled for additional fingerprints to be taken, provided either reject notice is less than 15 months old. In extreme cases, where a biometrics technician cannot capture any fingerprints due to a physical impairment, a fingerprint waiver may be issued at the discretion of the Application Support Center manager. In all cases, whether the two sets of fingerprints are rejected or the applicant has been granted a fingerprint waiver, the applicant must complete a Police Clearance Notice and return it to the Application Support Center where s/he originally had her/his appointment.
If you have confirmed cases of individuals with unclassifiable prints being repeatedly rescheduled for biometric collection in association with an application or petition for immigration benefits, please bring those cases to our attention.
http://www.uscis.gov/files/nativedocuments/MARCBOQA.pdf
isantem, In continuation of your posts in EB3 thread, below information could be helpful in the travel context.
"If I file Form I-131 for a reentry permit while I am in the
United States, can I submit my biometrics while I am
outside the United States?
No. When you file your Form I-131 to obtain a reentry permit, USCIS will notify you when to appear at a designated Application Support Center (ASC) to obtain your biometrics. You must provide your biometrics at the ASC while you are in the United States. If you leave the United States before you provide your biometrics, USCIS may deny your application."
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/B5en.pdf
Thank you for sharing the above info. I think based on what I will see in the VB on July 10th I will decide if I travel or not. If I do, I will file for I-485 just at the end of August when I will be back in country to avoid any problems.
Thank you Kanmani for the documents, I got exactly what I wanted from the links you provided. You have a great treasure of document links, truly amazing!!
Hi Spec,
Did you happen to see I-526 statistics until March 31st,2013. I am not sure whether somebody shared already.
http://iiusablog.org/wp-content/uplo...ling-stats.pdf
Thanks,
Matt
only 1526 approvals in first 2 Q's and if there are total 3K approvals for entire year, does it mean rest of the spillover comes to EB2I.
I believe I do not understand this scenario completely but MATT or anyone else pls correct me and share any further details
I526 to GC conversion ratio is close to 3 times, if I am not wrong.
sorry , I didn't understand, can you elaborate it bit more.
How is the conversion 3 times when 526 approval itself means conditional GC in EB5.
i thought 1526 are total EB5 conditional GC in 1st half
I-526 is very similar to our I-140, meaning it is the stage to prove eligibility for GC with an investment. As many EB-5 cases are CP cases, once it reaches that stage dependents are added to it. So for every I-526, the approx. conversion is 3 times. My understanding is very limited, Spec or somebody else can pitch in to provide more clarity.
Matt,
Thanks, that is very useful information. I already had the Receipt (and Completion info) from the USCIS Dashboard. The Approval numbers are the last piece of information I needed.
The corresponding period last year had 2,100 I-526 approvals compared to the 1,526 shown in the report for this year.
Overall for the YTD, the approval % for I-526 is 76%, slightly down from FY2012 (79%).
Visa usage per approved I-526 has remained fairly constant at 2.9 according to the DHS Handbook. A simple prorating of the H1 approvals would result in 8,851 visa usage in EB5, but I do think that may be too simplistic.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
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