Spec,
It's like quantum physics ... all possibilities exist. The question is which one of them will materialize. I will bet on dates not retrogressing.
p.s. - I always enjoy your posts Spec. I think you know that .... but reiteration can't hurt!Originally Posted by Spectator
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
I ditto that Spec, this year has been exceptionally bad for EB2I so far. Seems like CO was predetermined to hold back EB2I dates to payback for the blunder that he made in 2012.
I hope things start to turn around from the July VB onwards and the dates don't retro that much starting Oct.
My PD of Aug 2007 continues to wait to see the daylight...hope that will happen soon!
Spec,
This is what I'm assuming. Below PD date movements are just randomly picked to just state my question.
Bulletin that will be released in July 1st week (effective August 1st) : August 1, 2007
Bulletin that will be released in August 1st week ( effective Sep 1st) : Jan 1, 2008
Bulletin that will be released in September 1st week ( effective Oct 1st) : June 2006 or "U"
Now in above scenario, since my PD is Dec 31, 2007. I will have only one month (Sep 1st - Sep 30th) to be greened. Correct? Otherwise I have to wait almost until next SO season aka July 2014.
Is there a chance that starting from Oct 1st, the dates maynot retrogress or "U" for few more months.
Thanks,
NSC, EB2I, PD: Dec 31,07, RD: Dec 21,2011, ND: Dec 27, 2011, EAD/AP: Feb 2011, I485: Waiting.
I140 Amendment filed along with 485 due to company acquisition. . Amended I140 approved. RFE received on 485 application. Submitted proof in May 2012.
Q,
Never a truer word spoken!
Ditto about your posts.
We may hold some different views, but I have always said that is a good thing and I mean it. We look at things from different perspectives and it allows different ways to reach a prediction.
I've probably been at this too long. I realize my style can sound rather argumentative. No, does sound argumentative! I can't change that - I am what I am and this year has been the worst to date for information from official and semi-official sources. It is frustrating.
I do think it is a shame if that results in some people not posting their own predictions. For that, I do apologize.
Onwards and Upwards.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Dec2007,
if you read earlier posts on Qeseh/Spec, they are saying chances of PD date retrogressing is very slim after Oct1st(i.e. Sept VB). Spec, also mentioned the reason onto why we had almost no moment in EB2I PD movement from the begining of this year. What I understand from Qeseh earlier post that date will not retrogress less than Jan-2008. If that is the case you will have some time to resolve your RFE and get greened, you must be happy that you are in better state than me, I have NOV2007 PD and waiting to file I485 this time.
dec2007,
For future reference, most people refer to the VB by the month it takes effect, so it is simpler just to say August VB, September VB, October VB etc. It also saves some typing.
Using the dates you have chosen, yes you are only likely to have one month to be approved before dates retrogress before your PD in the October VB. I know Q feels otherwise. It would be a lottery for you - I can't put it any other way.
In many ways, I hope he sets the July VB at 01JAN07.
CO has always been saying that he has no idea of porting numbers. IF he moved the date to 01JAN07 in the July VB, he would get a much better idea of the porting numbers. That would be helpful for future reference and might allow for (more accurate) quarterly movement in future years.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
I only said dates wont retro prior to Q1 2008 come Oct 2013. If GC's case is preadjudicated he should expect a GC by 20th Sep 2013. If he files after date become current - then it should take about 4 months.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Q, Spec others,
By Q1 of 2008 are you guys saying jan, feb or march? I have my pd in feb.
I sincerely hope the dates cross well in 2008. Five+ years and waiting, kind of tired keeping track.
Druv
Q,
To be clear, the reason I said it will be a lottery is that more cases will be Current in September than there are visas available. Often numbers run out after about 2 weeks of September.
a) It is then luck of the draw whether a case is picked up before visa numbers run out.
b) Even if it is picked up and was previously pre-adjudicated, a RFE can still be issued, which would kill any chance of approval in FY2013.
I think (a) is the greater danger.
To be sure, as lotteries go, the odds are quite good for a clean case, but not a certainty. Quantum Uncertainty again!
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec - I think what you mean is that --- CO will try to overshoot in order not to waste visas and as a result some people may not get GC.
Now that is certainly possible. However regardless of that becoming reality or not - I guarantee you that it won't be lottery. Why? Because of the large preadjudicated backlog which according to the law must be dealt with in order of priority date. So it won't be lottery.
RFE and all is reality only for a very small number of cases when things are at this stage. In fact if there was to be an RFE on those cases then it should've already been issued.
Third - and going back to the topic of overshooting. I would believe that CO has such a great visibility and understanding now of how many visas he is left with and how much ready backlog he has .... that he can move dates precisely to a point where he doesn't have to waste visa nor leave a large number of people high and dry.
Would you agree Spec?
p.s. - As per earlier question that druvraj raised ... to be clear - none of us know for sure. I would say somewhere in Q1 the dates should settle.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Q,
I was not aware of the rule that preadjudicated applications needs to be processed as per PD. thanks for info.
Anyways, when I spoke to visa officer on my Infopass appointment, he said my app is preadjudicated.
NSC, EB2I, PD: Dec 31,07, RD: Dec 21,2011, ND: Dec 27, 2011, EAD/AP: Feb 2011, I485: Waiting.
I140 Amendment filed along with 485 due to company acquisition. . Amended I140 approved. RFE received on 485 application. Submitted proof in May 2012.
Nov2007, I can understand your situation. Hang in there my friend...hope for the best.Dec2007,
if you read earlier posts on Qeseh/Spec, they are saying chances of PD date retrogressing is very slim after Oct1st(i.e. Sept VB). Spec, also mentioned the reason onto why we had almost no moment in EB2I PD movement from the begining of this year. What I understand from Qeseh earlier post that date will not retrogress less than Jan-2008. If that is the case you will have some time to resolve your RFE and get greened, you must be happy that you are in better state than me, I have NOV2007 PD and waiting to file I485 this time.
Next Friday will answer lot of questions.
NSC, EB2I, PD: Dec 31,07, RD: Dec 21,2011, ND: Dec 27, 2011, EAD/AP: Feb 2011, I485: Waiting.
I140 Amendment filed along with 485 due to company acquisition. . Amended I140 approved. RFE received on 485 application. Submitted proof in May 2012.
How to take infopass appointment to know if my application is pre-adjudicated, I have Nov 2007 EB2I PD and my response to RFE received in oct 2007, when I raised SR i got the reply that the application cannot be processed further b'cos of lack of visas (PD not current) .
I think retrogression most likely might happen next fiscal yr as there is no way CO would know that the amount of porting will not be more than the EB2I regular quota.
next year there might be very little FB spillover (like previous yrs), they just won't know about EB2WW and EB1 usage until atleast 6 months into the fiscal yr.
http://infopass.uscis.gov/
You can ask him if it is preadjudicated.
NSC, EB2I, PD: Dec 31,07, RD: Dec 21,2011, ND: Dec 27, 2011, EAD/AP: Feb 2011, I485: Waiting.
I140 Amendment filed along with 485 due to company acquisition. . Amended I140 approved. RFE received on 485 application. Submitted proof in May 2012.
Yes dec2007 - that is the law that any extra visas should be allocated in order of PD for all eligible 485s.
But even otherwise for quota visas - same is true for all applications that fall under quota and are eligible for a visa.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Gurus
I have a stupid question. The spike we saw in EB2Row during the last few months of last FY...does that have anything to do with EB2 ROWers panicking about the chances of HR3012 passing ?
If so, is there a chance for a similar pattern this FY now that CIR is about to go onto the senate floor in two weeks?
I already opened SR once and got reply.
here is the option that I might have to choose when I opned the site
"Case Services follow-up appointment - If it has been over 45 days since you contacted NCSC and have not received a response to your inquiry. You must bring the Service Request ID Number related to your inquiry to the appointment. "
But as I already received the response from them in email, is there any risk of choosing this option or else did u choose any other option?
No, the spike is due to retrogression of EB2WW, whether they panick or not wouldnt changed the fact that everyone would have applied at the earliet oppurtunity.
There was no spike per se. The retrogression was due to over allocation to EB2IC resulting in insufficient numbers for EB2ROW. There might have been some added urgency but not high enough to point to that as a factor.
Spec,
My worse case number for EB1 is 38K and best case is 33.5K. My Max number for visa issued for EB1 for first quarter is 11.3K and second quarter is 9.1K. I expect further drops in quarter III and quarter ** .
Matt,
Thanks for sharing.
Spookily, my worst case figure for the first half is also 20.4k.
Like you, I don't expect that to repeat in H2 and my range is also 34-38k.
Its reassuring to know that with the same data, you have arrived at the same conclusion.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec,
I was looking at your cumulative numbers for EB2WW(as thats one category keeping me awake at night) and see that theres a chance that the numbers may end at 39K. so till end of may you have 27K. Last 4 months have seen 12 k approvals . So if current trend continues numbers may not cross 40K. Lets hope for that.
One question I had asked you earlier and you may or may not have insight - FY 2008 EB2WW had 48K approvals. I was trying to understand why that would have happened and I think that along with retrogression in 2007 another reason could be that DOL churned out stuck labor approvals for the past several years and all those must have been handled in 2008. Your thoughts? Just trying to analyse if that can happen again this year.
with only 9 days to go for the much anticipated July bulletin, if the dates don't move to atleast
jan 2007, then we might be facing perhaps a catastrophic situation where the CO might just waste visas or somehow there is data which almost none of us are aware of .
Even though remote possibility of making a 2 step movement ( like spec described before) of one major movements in august bulletin followed by some adjustment in september is possible, I highly doubt thats going to happen. (if that were to happen may be the CO will give in the predictions of july bulletin).
In short July bulletin is make or break for most of our hopes of getting GC.
with DD 7925 prior to Jan 2008 and possibility of additional Demand of porters being as high as 5K, is it possible that the dates might never reach 2008., Pls don't consider this as my prediction but somehow this appears to be in the list of possibilities at this time.
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