EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[Kanmani]

his labor just cleared ... probably that meant he ported.

Q, No. He has changed employer with no I-485 filing in hand. He probably missed the boat.

[qesehmk]

Oh .. i didn't read his last post. He definitely missed the boat. I wonder how that is even possible!!

Q, No. He has changed employer with no I-485 filing in hand. He probably missed the boat.

[gtyagi]

Q, Kanmani

I didnot port from EB3-EB2. Original PD was April 2008. But I had to change job and due to some issues it took more than a year to just file for Labor. The case was started with murthy in November 2011 and they filed for labor in Jan 2013.

his labor just cleared ... probably that meant he ported.

[mailmvr]

Gurus I know this thread is not appropriate on CIR, but little curious. How far are we from CIR. Can Gurus comment on it. Since next month there is a likely change of forward movement in dates if we can also take a stock of CIR implication it would give good perspective to forum readers.

[vizcard]

Gurus I know this thread is not appropriate on CIR, but little curious. How far are we from CIR. Can Gurus comment on it. Since next month there is a likely change of forward movement in dates if we can also take a stock of CIR implication it would give good perspective to forum readers.

I'll answer this one but please post all follow up questions on the Bills thread or CIR thread.

CIR is still a long way to go. It will most likely pass the Senate in June (before 4th of July). At that point, the House will take over. Given that the House is crafting their own bill, they will go through their process (similar to the Senate) and vote in the House - probably some time in Sept (almost all of August is summer recess). Assuming the House bill passes in the House, there will be offline discussions to find a compromise between the House and Senate bills. Subsequently, the new compromised bill will be voted on in the House and Senate. As you can see there is a lot of procedure, a ton of hurdles and lots of backroom dealings. IF CIR passes at all, it won't be this FY (IMO).

[Spectator]

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD

PDF version

[natvyas]

I notice that the EB1 numbers are pretty high compared to last year. However what I dont understand is how come these many applications having been sitting there for so long given that it is EB1 and processing time is 3 to 4 months.

These high numbers scare me as we were hoping to have a large fall down from EB1.

[kd2008]

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD

PDF version

Surprisingly light on EB1 and EB2-ROW. Not by much still it may be indicative.

[geeaarpee]

Surprisingly light on EB1 and EB2-ROW. Not by much still it may be indicative.

2007 looks possible!

[kd2008]

Category May2012 Apr2013
EB1 15719 11573
EBROW 11819 10227

From Pending inventory in Apr 2013 and May 2012 (Last year)

Natvyas, your reading is incorrect based on above facts.

[natvyas]

Category May2012 Apr2013
EB1 15719 11573
EBROW 11819 10227

From Pending inventory in Apr 2013 and May 2012 (Last year)

Natvyas, your reading is incorrect based on above facts.

Thankyou for correcting me.

However the fact there are so many cases on inventory (especially from Oct 2012) concerns me. Plus why havent they adjusdicated those cases? Will they eat our lunch (GC) ?

[pdmay2008]

I notice that the EB1 numbers are pretty high compared to last year. However what I dont understand is how come these many applications having been sitting there for so long given that it is EB1 and processing time is 3 to 4 months.

These high numbers scare me as we were hoping to have a large fall down from EB1.

These EB1s may be sitting with RFEs or with some other review. Also this is as of 04/02/2013. They might have processed some of these cases already in these 45 days.

I would say we need to wait for next month bulletin to understand how CO interprets these numbers.

[Kanmani]

I find EB5 processing is at slower pace, one data shows california centre is still processing FY 2012 cases.

Numerous FOIA queries asking for statistics showing how many jobs were created under EB5 programme, USCIS replied that they are not keeping in track of that information.

All Form Types Performance Data pending almost forever might help us understand.

[natvyas]

I compared the numbers between the Jan and Apr Inventory Statistics

For Oct 2012 - In Jan there were 1669 pending cases and Apr there are 976 cases
For Nov 2012 - In Jan there were 1449 pending cases and Apr there are 1090 cases
For Dec 2012 - In Jan there were 1025 pending cases and Apr there are 1255 cases (this can be explained as the Jan report came out too quickly for all cases to be captured)

This tells me that the processing in EB1 is slow.

Any comments on this conclusion?

[Spectator]

Here is the history of EB1 and EB2-WW Inventories and the movements.

EB1

Inv. ------ No. ---- Change
Apr-13 -- 11,573 -- (10.27%)
Jan-13 -- 12,898 --- (7.24%)
Oct-12 -- 13,905 -- (11.54%)
May-12 -- 15,719 ---- 0.87%
Jan-12 -- 15,583 --- 10.74%
Oct-11 -- 14,072 --- 40.89%
May-11 --- 9,988 --- 18.16%
Jan-11 --- 8,453 --- 11.30%
Oct-10 --- 7,595 ---- 2.98%
May-10 --- 7,375 -- 219.68%
Mar-10 --- 2,307 -- (22.27%)
Dec-09 --- 2,968 -- (26.72%)
Sep-09 --- 4,050

EB2-WW

Inv. ------ No. ---- Change
Apr-13 -- 12,052 -- (21.87%)
Jan-13 -- 15,425 --- (6.08%)
Oct-12 -- 16,424 --- 34.44%
May-12 -- 12,217 --- (6.70%)
Jan-12 -- 13,094 --- 18.34%
Oct-11 -- 11,065 ---- 9.10%
May-11 -- 10,142 --- 13.51%
Jan-11 --- 8,935 --- (9.88%)
Oct-10 --- 9,915 --- 46.61%
May-10 --- 6,763 --- 84.93%
Mar-10 --- 3,657 -- (38.54%)
Dec-09 --- 5,950 -- (24.41%)
Sep-09 --- 7,871

The EB2-WW level appears to have returned to something close to the level it was in May 2012. The rise in October 2012 was expected due to retrogression in the preceding months.

[pdmay2008]

The EB2-WW level appears to have returned to something close to the level it was in May 2012. The rise in October 2012 was expected due to retrogression in the preceding months.

This might have been possible due to any of the following :

1. EB2 WW Demand reduced
2. After Oct-12 CO started assigning VISA numbers for all the preadjudicated EB2 WW cases
3. USCIS Processing efficiency improved

I have no question on number 3. We are sure nothing has changed in terms of USCIS processing.

[indiani]

Here is the history of EB1 and EB2-WW Inventories and the movements.

EB1

Inv. ------ No. ---- Change
Apr-13 -- 11,573 -- (10.27%)
Jan-13 -- 12,898 --- (7.24%)
Oct-12 -- 13,905 -- (11.54%)
May-12 -- 15,719 ---- 0.87%
Jan-12 -- 15,583 --- 10.74%
Oct-11 -- 14,072 --- 40.89%
May-11 --- 9,988 --- 18.16%
Jan-11 --- 8,453 --- 11.30%
Oct-10 --- 7,595 ---- 2.98%
May-10 --- 7,375 -- 219.68%
Mar-10 --- 2,307 -- (22.27%)
Dec-09 --- 2,968 -- (26.72%)
Sep-09 --- 4,050

EB2-WW

Inv. ------ No. ---- Change
Apr-13 -- 12,052 -- (21.87%)
Jan-13 -- 15,425 --- (6.08%)
Oct-12 -- 16,424 --- 34.44%
May-12 -- 12,217 --- (6.70%)
Jan-12 -- 13,094 --- 18.34%
Oct-11 -- 11,065 ---- 9.10%
May-11 -- 10,142 --- 13.51%
Jan-11 --- 8,935 --- (9.88%)
Oct-10 --- 9,915 --- 46.61%
May-10 --- 6,763 --- 84.93%
Mar-10 --- 3,657 -- (38.54%)
Dec-09 --- 5,950 -- (24.41%)
Sep-09 --- 7,871

The EB2-WW level appears to have returned to something close to the level it was in May 2012. The rise in October 2012 was expected due to retrogression in the preceding months.

Spec,
based on the latest inventory how much spillover do you expect EB2I will get in the next 3 months, Do you believe it can definitely clear out dec 2007 (mine is in Nov 2007). I have based so many plans based on the timing that knowing the possibility of movements will help me immensely. If the latest predictions are different from april 4th or more refined, can you update your predictions from 1st page as yours are "Gold standard" that almost everyone rely on

[bvsamrat]

Spec

Is it necessary for the CO to release a definite Visa quantity every month? or every quarter

How do we know if he is doing this?

(I do not want to know why should he do this? but can this happen? and how will anyone notice this?)

[seattlet]

Can one of our gurus please explain

how demand data and Inventory are used together in determining demand / cut off. For ex EB2 I has demand of 450 until Jan 1st 2005 per demand data. But per Inventory report released,
until 2005 we have 800 cases pending before Jan 1st 2005.

Thanks

[indiani]

Can one of our gurus please explain

how demand data and Inventory are used together in determining demand / cut off. For ex EB2 I has demand of 450 until Jan 1st 2005 per demand data. But per Inventory report released,
until 2005 we have 800 cases pending before Jan 1st 2005.

Thanks

DD= preadjudicated 485+ CP
inventory= all pending 485
DD is used to determine cut-off dates

[indiani]

Is it necessary for the CO to release a definite Visa quantity every month? or every quarter
every month' exception is spillover

How do we know if he is doing this?
cut off date on bulletin and trackitt data.

we dont have official GC's issued for this fiscal yet

[Spectator]

The law only says that not more than 27% of visas may be used in each of the first 3 quarters - it does not set a minimum number.

CO is also (by law) allowed to use estimates of future visa use when setting the Cut Off Dates. This could lead to a situation where the total expected number of monthly visas are not allocated, in the expectation that they will be needed in the future.

For instance, this year, he surely knows that there will be a period of apparent low Demand for EB3-ROW/C/M, but he also knows that will likely be fulfilled when USCIS adjudicates the newly submitted cases (as long as it is before the end of the FY).

[Spectator]

Spec,
based on the latest inventory how much spillover do you expect EB2I will get in the next 3 months, Do you believe it can definitely clear out dec 2007 (mine is in Nov 2007). I have based so many plans based on the timing that knowing the possibility of movements will help me immensely. If the latest predictions are different from april 4th or more refined, can you update your predictions from 1st page as yours are "Gold standard" that almost everyone rely on

indiani,

It's still too early to say.

I want to wait to see what the first movement is in the July VB.

Gut feel says my existing forecast is now a little optimistic and represents a best case scenario. Full disclosure - am using quite an aggressive amount for porting numbers. If that is incorrect, then I will be seen as pessimistic. Don't ask the number - all I will say is that it is bigger than the 4.5k I believe Matt is using, although ultimately it doesn't make such a huge difference.

I would urge no-one to use my guesstimates for any important decisions. The data is too imprecise ( or just completely unavailable) and the error margins are too wide.

[MATT2012]

Hi Spec,

I am also working on the final projection numbers, do feel that 4500 is on the lower side, I am moving it up to 5500-6000. So over all porting this fiscal will be 7000-7500 including the visas issued so far this fiscal.

I have a question for you, any idea of % RFE's for existing pre-adjudicated cases, Is 5% a too high percentage?

Thanks,
Matt

[indiani]

indiani,

It's still too early to say.

I want to wait to see what the first movement is in the July VB.

Gut feel says my existing forecast is now a little optimistic and represents a best case scenario. Full disclosure - am using quite an aggressive amount for porting numbers. If that is incorrect, then I will be seen as pessimistic. Don't ask the number - all I will say is that it is bigger than the 4.5k I believe Matt is using, although ultimately it doesn't make such a huge difference.

I would urge no-one to use my guesstimates for any important decisions. The data is too imprecise ( or just completely unavailable) and the error margins are too wide.

I belive only after we seeing last bulletin of this fiscal year that there will be 100% certainity of exact movement, its extremely frustating that they just dont publish the Gc's issued every month even though they might have the data readily available.

I dont want to move to a new job with Nov 07 PD in eb2I as I missed the boat once. There needs to be 7000 spillover to cover my PD but I am not 100% certain that is going to happen even though I have pinned all my hopes on the movement which i expect in july/august.

I dont think the porters will get GC if they start making significant moves after august. ( even when they apply in July, only less than 50% might actually get GC)