EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[geeaarpee]

Min could be 0. I'm not being facetious here. There's not been any new info for a while. So if EB2WW uses all the spillover from EB1, then we are left with the initial allocation plus the FB excess.

That being said, I personally don't expect that to happen. I am in the camp that expects spillover of about 20k SOFAD incl FB excess.

Viz - If there is 0 EB spillover and just with the FB excess where do you think the dates would be by Sep for EB2I?

[Spectator]

Makes sense. Another thing I am thinking of is CO may move dates for EB2 I in sept directly. The reason being this - All the apps pre 2007 are preadjudicated and new apps are going to be interfiling which are preadjudicated rather quickly. May be they dont want to give time for interfiling also. A late single move may be the simplest for them with a fixed target instead of a moving one.

sbhagwat,

From my POV, I certainly hope not. That would be a recipe for random approvals of all sorts of PD. People with 2007 PD who missed out last year would be just as likely to do so again. CO would also be absolutely blind to how many cases a given movement might produce, since USCIS have not supplied any information about porting numbers in the pipeline to DOS according to previous statements.

I would move in 3 steps (as I have mentioned previously) :

July VB - Cut Off Date movement to about 01JAN07 to clear out most of the porting cases. Even the worst case scenario should allow that much movement.

August VB - A safe-ish date that represents the minimum number of cases that I would be 100% sure there will be enough visas for, even if other Categories saw a late increase. Perhaps a Cut Off Date of late 2007 to 01JAN08.

September VB - A Cut Off Date sufficient to balance the final number of visas I thought would be available. Final determination would depend on what I was seeing in other Categories up to early August when I had to set the date.

I think that strategy balances approving cases in roughly PD order, obtaining some idea of unknown demand, leaving the final movement to as late as possible and not overburdening USCIS capacity to approve cases in a single month (bearing in mind that USCIS are also likely to have large numbers of EB3 cases to adjudicate in August/September).

There are various variations around that theme, but I would be staggered and rather worried if the Cut Off Dates for EB2-I do not move in July.

[Kanmani]

Why the China born EB-3 has surpassed EB-2 visa availability for the first time since October 1993?

Article .... http://www.alanleelaw.com/english/Ne...013-05-11.html

[Spectator]

Why the China born EB-3 has surpassed EB-2 visa availability for the first time since October 1993?

Article .... http://www.alanleelaw.com/english/Ne...013-05-11.html

Kanmani,

Nice to see another article from that source.

It may be an oddity, but it makes little difference to all but a very few Chinese applicants.

The vast majority of those in EB2 with a PD up to May 2010 were able to file an I-485 last year. I say an I-485 because EB2 has so little CP.

By the time they could switch to EB3, the dates will have retrogressed to a date earlier than the EB2 one.

IMO it is just an interesting statistical quirk, essentially caused by the way USCIS process cases, which occasionally necessitates large forward movements in the Cut Off Dates when the previous Demand runs out.

I think you already know that, so I'll just say thanks for bringing the article to everybody's attention.

[Kanmani]

Spec,

Just walked through the memory lane, this article took me back to the 2007 speculation about Eb3I waiting time would be lesser in the (then) future than that of Eb2I. Do you think it is likely after 5 years from now ?

Thanks in Adv.

[indiani]

Kanmani,

Nice to see another article from that source.

It may be an oddity, but it makes little difference to all but a very few Chinese applicants.

The vast majority of those in EB2 with a PD up to May 2010 were able to file an I-485 last year. I say an I-485 because EB2 has so little CP.

By the time they could switch to EB3, the dates will have retrogressed to a date earlier than the EB2 one.

IMO it is just an interesting statistical quirk, essentially caused by the way USCIS process cases, which occasionally necessitates large forward movements in the Cut Off Dates when the previous Demand runs out.

I think you already know that, so I'll just say thanks for bringing the article to everybody's attention.

Spec,
Is there anyway we can obtain the approvals in all the EB categories so far for this fiscal year. I believe under FOIA they should provide when asked but not quite sure. It is quite frustrating to have to go through trackitt data and spending so much time and energy and you have spent more time than anyone else I know including all immigration attorneys , some of whom make millions doing this business.

I do not believe any immigration attorney is going to do that as they do not have much incentive in obtaing the GC approval data for this current fiscal year, If we have DD and GC approvals , we will have good idea about spillovers, b'cos without the GC approval data, inventory data alone will provide very little additinal value for predictions

[Spectator]

Spec,

Just walked through the memory lane, this article took me back to the 2007 speculation about Eb3I waiting time would be lesser in the (then) future than that of Eb2I. Do you think it is likely after 5 years from now ?

Thanks in Adv.

Kanmani,

Firstly, it's nice to see some posts from you. It seems like a long time.

Seeing Alan Lee's name was a memory jogger for me as well. He provided some really good info in his set of 3 articles.

I hope that is a future we won't have to contemplate. If we are, no legislation to improve the system will have been passed.

EB3-I is in very bad shape until EB3-ROW can become Current. Until then, under current interpretations, they can't receive any spillover visas. It's quite sad that there is semi-rejoicing that EB3-I has started to move 2 weeks a month rather than 1 week. That still means actual retrogression is getting worse. I am hoping that EB3-ROW demand will drop off fairly sharply after 2008, since these days, ROW seem as unwilling to file under EB3 as those from India do. If the date move far enough, that is something I am hoping to see (one way or the other), once the full demand is apparent.

EB2-I will continue to benefit from any spillover available via EB1 and from EB2-WW. Despite the huge numbers waiting in EB2-I, only in years when there is little spillover will EB2-I not move forward at some point during the year. The present "real" gap of 5 years between EB2-I and EB3-I will take a long time to close. EB3-I are not going to exhaust visas prior to July 2007 anytime soon.

What a depressing post.

[sandyn16]

Is there any limit on how many cases can be approved per month? Will that play a role on when they decide to move the dates between July and Sept to avoid wastage?

[vizcard]

Viz - If there is 0 EB spillover and just with the FB excess where do you think the dates would be by Sep for EB2I?

My guesstimate would be Dec 2007 - March 2008 depending on porting.

[vizcard]

Is there any limit on how many cases can be approved per month? Will that play a role on when they decide to move the dates between July and Sept to avoid wastage?

There's a quarterly limit not a monthly one.

[qesehmk]

Spec - it seems complicated from forecasting perspective but really it isn't that complicated simply because NVC is equivalent to USCIS except that consulates demand visa and NVC does the grunt work.

IMHO Precisely because of large EB3 CP backlog - there is no fear of wastage of visa in EB3 and which is why moving dates farther than really necessary is not required.

However -- regardless of that theoretical debate - I guess what you are saying is that this is a temporary forward move which most likely is going to see a retrogression. And in that case that would make sense. My fear is that porting could be much higher (but I don't have a proof) and in that case EB3 ROW move could be a sustainable one which could be a very bad news for EB2I.

We will know precisely what this by approximately Aug 10th which is when last bulletin of this USCIS fiscal will be published.

Q,

I have mentioned in previous posts that EB3 Cut Off Date movement is far more complicated than EB2-IC last year due to the % of Consular Processed cases. Since they can be made documentarily qualified and approved far faster than a new AOS case, it actually makes more sense to move dates very quickly, then retrogress them to control the number of late PD CP cases that can be approved. If CO wishes to consider this, he doesn't have more than a further one month (at most) to continue moving the dates forward. In contrast EB2 has virtually no CP cases, so it was not a consideration last year.

I see 28.5k EB3 CP cases for EB3-ROW/C/M (excluding EW) at NVC in November 2012. They cover a PD range of about 6 years (on average about 5k per PD Year).

If USCIS process new AOS cases too slowly, CO has the ability to approve later CP cases to avoid wastage of the EB3-ROW/C/M allocation.


Over the period FY2011 to date EB2-ROW has shown the following average (range) [this year to date] for the following :

Porting - 7.9% (6.15% to 10.85%) [6.15%]
Indian Nationality/ROW Chargeability - 10.5% (8.9% to 13.5%) [8.9%]
NIW - 14.4% (10.6% to 18.1%) [18.1%]

As with EB2-IC last year, just because a given Cut Off Date movement bring in a certain number of new applications, that is not the same as all those applications being approved. In fact, as with EB2-IC, the majority of the new EB3 applications will not be approved this FY - they are merely a future inventory that will be depleted over several years. How long depends on how far CO ultimately decides to move the Cut Off Dates.

[Spectator]

Spec - it seems complicated from forecasting perspective but really it isn't that complicated simply because NVC is equivalent to USCIS except that consulates demand visa and NVC does the grunt work.

IMHO Precisely because of large EB3 CP backlog - there is no fear of wastage of visa in EB3 and which is why moving dates farther than really necessary is not required.

However -- regardless of that theoretical debate - I guess what you are saying is that this is a temporary forward move which most likely is going to see a retrogression. And in that case that would make sense. My fear is that porting could be much higher (but I don't have a proof) and in that case EB3 ROW move could be a sustainable one which could be a very bad news for EB2I.

We will know precisely what this by approximately Aug 10th which is when last bulletin of this USCIS fiscal will be published.

Q,

Thanks for your comments. I agree with most of your post. Different views are expected and healthy. After all, everybody is working in a vacuum and there is no precedent for EB3 moving beyond July 2007.

To clarify, my comment about complexity was solely about about the timings issue brought about by the different speed with which AOS and CP cases can be adjudicated by USCIS and DOS.

Even then, it is only an issue if CO wishes to control the number of late PD CP cases that are approved i.e. those beyond the date that EB3 would have to retrogress back to.

As for the level of porting, like EB2, it is difficult to come by information. I have tried my best to analyze the data that exists, but there are limitations to that data. If the EB2-ROW Trackitt porting cases are more closely aligned to the EB3-ROW ratio (rather than the overall EB2-ROW ratio I have used), the numbers could be up to twice as large. On the other hand, it is clear from examination of some of the cases with an old PD that they are just long delayed straight EB2 cases.

By having to move the EB3 dates forward relatively late in the FY, CO has had to trust that USCIS will process the new AOS applications in a manner consistent with how they have processed others recently. Each year of PD forward movement should correspond to 4-5k CP cases - that is his buffer if USCIS don't process the AOS cases in a timely fashion.

I don't think the movement to 01SEP08 is a sustainable one given how many visas may be left for the FY. I have not yet decided what date is a sustainable one. At the moment I am thinking late 2007 to possibly somewhere in Q1 2008. That is based on recent FY movement for a given number of approvals.

As for a large forward movement, I think that is more to build an Inventory so that there is better visibility of the demand, much in the same way as it happened for EB2IC. In the same way, there was no need to move those dates to 01MAY10 purely for FY visa consumption reasons.

[qesehmk]

Spec - sure - I hope so and we will know by Aug 10th latest. Perhaps even as early as next month if EB2I jumps 2-3 years forward. Then clearly EB3ROW move is not sustainable.

Q,

As for a large forward movement, I think that is more to build an Inventory so that there is better visibility of the demand, much in the same way as it happened for EB2IC.

[Spectator]

Spec - sure - I hope so and we will know by Aug 10th latest. Perhaps even as early as next month if EB2I jumps 2-3 years forward. Then clearly EB3ROW move is not sustainable.

Q,

I agree.

The wait is excruciating.

I think this is by far the most difficult year (by a considerable margin) we have ever had for predicting what is going to happen. If I crash and burn this year, it won't be a total surprise to me.

It's hard to convey in posts quite how big the uncertainty is.

[qesehmk]

You will do just fine Spec! Given the amount of information available ... one could'nt have done better. Think about it - we are debating with decent accuracy what could be the reasons if EB2I doesn't receive sufficient SOFAD! So we not only are talking about outcome but also possible reasons! That is quite good compared to 2009-10s when we didnt have a clue how much total backlog was!

Q,

I agree.

The wait is excruciating.

I think this is by far the most difficult year (by a considerable margin) we have ever had for predicting what is going to happen. If I crash and burn this year, it won't be a total surprise to me.

It's hard to convey in posts quite how big the uncertainty is.

[geeaarpee]

General Prediction -

I will continue to update this page once a month.

Q - you said you will be updating the first page once a month and hasn't been for close to 3 months. Do you think anything worthy that happened and discussed in the past 3 months to be updated in Page 1?

This will help us recollect any useful conversations we might have missed in these days and help us understand in just one post in one place rather than going through all the 60+ pages of discussions.

Thanks!

[qesehmk]

Q - you said you will be updating the first page once a month and hasn't been for close to 3 months. Do you think anything worthy that happened and discussed in the past 3 months to be updated in Page 1?

This will help us recollect any useful conversations we might have missed in these days and help us understand in just one post in one place rather than going through all the 60+ pages of discussions.

Thanks!

geeaarpee -sorry and now i have updated first page. I think I am going to have to backtrack by about 2 months and correct my forecast to compensate for more than expected demand in EB2ROW as well. That explains why EB3ROW is also moving fast. (I think the unexpected demand is porting from EB3ROW to EB2ROW).

[geeaarpee]

I don't think there is particularly proven low demand from EB3-WW at this stage. There may be in future years beyond 2008.

The movement is solely necessitated by running out of cases submitted when the EB3-WW Cut Off Date was last Current, just as it was for EB2-I.

One of the reasons the Cut Off Dates need to move substantially is just so CO can gauge what AOS demand beyond July 2008 looks like in EB3 for China, Mexico and ROW.

Spec, you replied to my post last month when the May VB was released.

Do you still think the EB3 movement is just for demand purposes and not because of porting. From the above post, even Q seems to think that porting is huge WW.

Is porting that bad that my 2005 PD will not be current next month (July VB)?

[sbhagwat2000]

Spec, you replied to my post last month when the May VB was released.

Do you still think the EB3 movement is just for demand purposes and not because of porting. From the above post, even Q seems to think that porting is huge WW.

Is porting that bad that my 2005 PD will not be current next month (July VB)?

spec,

A few questions concerns on which u may have insight

1. EB2WW scored 48K in FY 2008. Do you see that repeated with the Perm Data that we have. The similarities between the 2 years the years before EB2WW retrogressed

2. About the EB5 discussion- 358 /month of completions = about 4000 approvals for the year. The extra numbers to abt 7000 0r 9000 is approvals of earlier years completions? If yes then I guess EB5 will use atleast 9000 as cumulatively this and last year are high

Thanks for all you do

[Spectator]

Answers inline (or rather, thoughts)

spec,

A few questions concerns on which u may have insight

1. EB2WW scored 48K in FY 2008. Do you see that repeated with the Perm Data that we have. The similarities between the 2 years the years before EB2WW retrogressed

No, I don't think the numbers will reach that level.

2. About the EB5 discussion- 358 /month of completions = about 4000 approvals for the year. The extra numbers to abt 7000 0r 9000 is approvals of earlier years completions? If yes then I guess EB5 will use at least 9000 as cumulatively this and last year are high

Good observation. For most cases, since most EB5 Consular Process, the lag time from an I-526 approval (the EB5 equivalent of the I-140) to consuming a visa is however long it takes for USCIS to send the documents to NVC and then the CP processing time. That might be a few months, but it probably isn't as long as a year IMO.

I get a slightly lower number of I-526 approvals than 4,000 because not all Completions are necessarily approvals. At an 80% approval rate, there would be roughly 286 approvals a month (3,436 for the year). At 2.9 visas used per I-526 approval, usage would still be higher than last year at about 10k. So maybe it is something of a red herring to hope for low EB5 approvals. EB5 usage numbers have been updated fairly often in the past. Someone doesn't seem so keen to do that this year - probably USCIS, since they very keen to be engaged by the stakeholders and most updates came from those quarterly meetings.

But you are correct that the benefit might be less than a straight comparison of completion numbers might suggest.

Thanks for all you do

[MATT2012]

Summary Prediction - EB2IC backlog will be cleared between May-Jul 2008 by Sep 2013.
4. EB1 - Has strong demand and will yield about 1K to EB1.

Thus EB2IC should expect to receive overall 9K (FB) +3K (EB4) +1K (EB1) +6K (Quota) = 19K visas.

That should be sufficient to clear EB2IC backlog through May-Jul 2008 if you consider porting at 3K.

Hi Q,
Was comparing the multiple predictions we have, and was looking for reasons for each number, Got a little curious about the 1K SO from EB1. Are you expecting the EB1 demand to be very similar to last fiscal?
Thanks,
Matt

[indiani]

as CO didnt mention about any cut off date even before FB spillover is applied, EB1 should give atleast 1K unless the demand suddenly increases in the last few months like last year, in that case the spillover from EB1 could be zero and they might even consuume 1-2K of FB spillover.

EB2ROW I believe is the more worrisome factor as they might consume considerble spillover from FB perhaps 4-6K, in that case EB2I might get perhaps as low as 7K spillover but its very overcautious estimate.

The reason I think CO didnt mention about any movement even for July and small chance he might make no movement in July as he didnt want all the new porters to be getting GC as there is already large pending inventory, so when he makes move in august at the most 20-30% of new porters might be able to get GC.

I think with 99% certainity I could say it could move to aug 2007, perhaps 50% to dec 2007

[sandyn16]

Do we think that there are high chances dates wont move in July bulletin?

I have a question for my case? I have Aug 2003 EB3 and working on EAD. My wife got her EB3 first in July 2006 and then EB2 perm and 140 approved last year. So when dates get current, going to have her case linked to mine.

So am not sure whether my case will fall in the new porter type category which will need more than 3 months or do I stand a chance of getting GC if dates get current in July or August?

[indiani]

Do we think that there are high chances dates wont move in July bulletin?

I have a question for my case? I have Aug 2003 EB3 and working on EAD. My wife got her EB3 first in July 2006 and then EB2 perm and 140 approved last year. So when dates get current, going to have her case linked to mine.

So am not sure whether my case will fall in the new porter type category which will need more than 3 months or do I stand a chance of getting GC if dates get current in July or August?

It depends, if they send RFE, NO.
as you finished finger printing, after you apply even in august you might get GC

"small chance he might make no movement in July" that means there is high chance that dates will move.

[Spectator]

Do we think that there are high chances dates wont move in July bulletin?

I have a question for my case? I have Aug 2003 EB3 and working on EAD. My wife got her EB3 first in July 2006 and then EB2 perm and 140 approved last year. So when dates get current, going to have her case linked to mine.

So am not sure whether my case will fall in the new porter type category which will need more than 3 months or do I stand a chance of getting GC if dates get current in July or August?

sandyn16,

I am of the opinion that the VB will move in the July VB.

The description of your situation is slightly confusing.

In one sentence its sounds as if your wife has the EB2 I-140 approval, but if her case is going to be linked to yours then you must have the EB2 I-140 approval. It's also not clear whether your wife already has an existing I-485.

IMO, a porting case is only going to take more than 3 months to approve if the person is filing an I-485 for the first time and it has to go through the whole procedure from scratch. That would mainly apply when the original EB3 case had a post July 2007 PD and the I-485 could not be filed when the dates were current under EB2 last year.

If an I-485 has already been submitted for some time, it is likely to be as pre-adjudicated as one submitted under EB2 last year. The process of converting the basis of the I-485 from EB3 to EB2 should take no time at all. as long as a written request to do so has been received.

It is then luck of the draw as to when the case is pulled, gets in front of an IO and whether an RFE is issued, as it will be for all EB2 cases that become Current.