EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[NOV2007]

To all Guru's,

I have been following this forum from past 1 month, and thanks for your valuable analysis and predictions you guys make that keep our hopes alive.
Am just thinking from one angle, where in previous predictions made by USCIS/DOS that EB2I dates would retrogress to what it is now during JuneVB. But,it didn't happen so I guess we are still in a good shape in EB2 prediction what all you Guru's have made in the begining of this topic.
But other hand am little concerned with USCIS/DOS predictions, in the begining of this FY CO said PD will move to mid of 2008 in the Q4. Now considering above predictions, does this prediction still holds good?
Guru's I have a EB2I PD of NOV2007, do I still have any hopes of filing I485 this year.
Thanks in advance for your reply.

1) Is CIR a reason for the lack of clarity/guidance from CO or does it have anything to do with the date movements in Q4 at all (specific to EB2I)?
High level of EB2-WW approvals may be the primary reason, rest everything is secondary.

2) Do you think dates will move for Eb2I in July or only in August/Sep?

I still believe September will be used as a buffer month to avoid visa wastage etc., So the major movement should be in July or August. it could also be July and August.
3) If July, what is the probability of a new 485 filed in July being approved this fiscal (Read somewhere here or Trackitt about new 485s getting approved in < 3 months time)?

You are correct, there are approvals happening in two to three months. As far as EB2I is concerned, it may not work. As EB3 ROW has gone ahead, the resources of USICS/background checks will be stretched starting this month. There is a very rare chance for a new EB2I 485 to get approved this fiscal be it filed in July or August.

[isantem]

So now EB-3 China is ahead of EB-2 China !!

EB-2 China how has priority date 14 July 2008 will get his GC in 3 months. EB-3 China how has priority 14 July 2008 will get his GC not earlier than 2014 summer. Is just seams like EB3C is ahead, in reality EB3C will retrogress soon.

[Spectator]

gc_soon & spec - if only looks at 485 inventory then what you say makes sense. But EB3 has huge NVC demand as well - almost 100K.

Now - to be fair - not all of that is ROW. 21 is India, 5 is china, 37(!!) is philines and 18 is ROW. So you can see why philines is not moving with rest of the world EB3. But even 18K of ROW NVC coupled with ROW 37 or so 485 demand = 55K.

Now a movement into mid 2007 was mathematically possible which is what whereismygc software predicted. But movement beyond 2007 requires between 10-20K ROW porting or rejections.

I don't see those many rejections. So it tends to make me believe that ROW probably has much higher porting than 3K.

Q,

I have mentioned in previous posts that EB3 Cut Off Date movement is far more complicated than EB2-IC last year due to the % of Consular Processed cases. Since they can be made documentarily qualified and approved far faster than a new AOS case, it actually makes more sense to move dates very quickly, then retrogress them to control the number of late PD CP cases that can be approved. If CO wishes to consider this, he doesn't have more than a further one month (at most) to continue moving the dates forward. In contrast EB2 has virtually no CP cases, so it was not a consideration last year.

I see 28.5k EB3 CP cases for EB3-ROW/C/M (excluding EW) at NVC in November 2012. They cover a PD range of about 6 years (on average about 5k per PD Year).

If USCIS process new AOS cases too slowly, CO has the ability to approve later CP cases to avoid wastage of the EB3-ROW/C/M allocation.


Over the period FY2011 to date EB2-ROW has shown the following average (range) [this year to date] for the following :

Porting - 7.9% (6.15% to 10.85%) [6.15%]
Indian Nationality/ROW Chargeability - 10.5% (8.9% to 13.5%) [8.9%]
NIW - 14.4% (10.6% to 18.1%) [18.1%]

As with EB2-IC last year, just because a given Cut Off Date movement bring in a certain number of new applications, that is not the same as all those applications being approved. In fact, as with EB2-IC, the majority of the new EB3 applications will not be approved this FY - they are merely a future inventory that will be depleted over several years. How long depends on how far CO ultimately decides to move the Cut Off Dates.

[Spectator]

Matt, do you see evidence of high level of EB2-WW approvals in Trackitt or elsewhere? From the earlier discussions in the thread, my understanding was that EB2-WW approvals have actually slowed. Any estimate on EB2-WW consumption so far and for the FY?

gc_soon,

You can find the monthly Trackitt figures and my estimate of what that may convert to here.

ROW means just that - it does not include China, Mexico or Philippines. Trackitt data for those Countries is not in sufficient quantity to be reliable.

[indiani]

gc_soon,

You can find the monthly Trackitt figures and my estimate of what that may convert to here.

ROW means just that - it does not include China, Mexico or Philippines. Trackitt data for those Countries is not in sufficient quantity to be reliable.

Spec,
can we make an assumption that EB2 ROW is not going to require any spillover other than FB visas which are already added to it?. The reason being there is no mention of potential cut off date.

what concerns me is the fact that even though 45,188 is the total allocated for EB2WW, the numbers that you have calculated might exceed 45K (Requiring upto 52K), in that case, can the EB1/EB4 spillover could mostly be consumed by EB2ROW and we can have a scenario of almost negligable spillover to India.
In other words if the EB2ROW demand remains very high , will the spillover from EB1/4 applied across all EB2 categories leaving india with very little benifit.

[sbhagwat2000]

Spec,
can we make an assumption that EB2 ROW is not going to require any spillover other than FB visas which are already added to it?. The reason being there is no mention of potential cut off date.

what concerns me is the fact that even though 45,188 is the total allocated for EB2WW, the numbers that you have calculated might exceed 45K (Requiring upto 52K), in that case, can the EB1/EB4 spillover could mostly be consumed by EB2ROW and we can have a scenario of almost negligable spillover to India.
In other words if the EB2ROW demand remains very high , will the spillover from EB1/4 applied across all EB2 categories leaving india with very little benifit.

Specs numbers do go to 52000 but you are assuming a direct correlation between trackitt numbers and actual numbers. EB2ROW while possible cannot consume 52000 visas. The max they have done is in FY 2008 when they consumed around 45000. But if you look at the numbers that year they were off the charts for countries that historically dont have that consumption. Example russia consumed 2500 visas in 2008 has never crossed 1300 after that. Last year was low but if you look at individual countries like Russia or Great Britian they were not really that low compared to normal years like 2011 and 2010. Canada looked very low last year and could cause of the rebound effect consume more this year. So net net according to me EB2ROW will consume around 35000 max taking EB2 WW to about 40000 max. Also trackitt numbers may not map to actual high numbers - case in point FY 2009 - it has the highest of any year approvals on trackitt but actuall approvals did not even cross 33000.

[indiani]

Specs numbers do go to 52000 but you are assuming a direct correlation between trackitt numbers and actual numbers. EB2ROW while possible cannot consume 52000 visas.

52K is meant for EBWW which includes india, mexico, phillipines., EB2ROW itself might require 40K if the cumulative numbers calculated based on data we have (I understand very difficult to precisely compute as they are estimations)

The max they have done is in FY 2008 when they consumed around 45000. But if you look at the numbers that year they were off the charts for countries that historically dont have that consumption. Example russia consumed 2500 visas in 2008 has never crossed 1300 after that. Last year was low but if you look at individual countries like Russia or Great Britian they were not really that low compared to normal years like 2011 and 2010. Canada looked very low last year and could cause of the rebound effect consume more this year. So net net according to me EB2ROW will consume around 35000 max taking EB2 WW to about 40000 max. Also trackitt numbers may not map to actual high numbers - case in point FY 2009 - it has the highest of any year approvals on trackitt but actuall approvals did not even cross 33000.

EB2WW to max. at 40K will be good scenario leading to upto 14K+ spillover to EB2I., but when I looked at the rate of approvals in EB2WW as a whole, they perhaps might have consumed 32K by april which is 7 months!!

All the data I used is from spec chart, may be my interpretation might be flawed in someway and I do not want to sound pessimistic but rather quite anxious as without any mention of any future movements, I am growing cynical

[sbhagwat2000]

EB2WW to max. at 40K will be good scenario leading to upto 14K+ spillover to EB2I., but when I looked at the rate of approvals in EB2WW as a whole, they perhaps might have consumed 32K by april which is 7 months!!

All the data I used is from spec chart, may be my interpretation might be flawed in someway and I do not want to sound pessimistic but rather quite anxious as without any mention of any future movements, I am growing cynical

If thats really the case then in february it would have been 32k - 4000 arounf 28000. There was no FB SO in Feb and CO would have talked abt high demand. theres not a single time where hes officially mentioned that EB2 WW demand is too high. Keep the hope . there will be movement

[veni001]

Hello Guys,

This is my first post to this forum. This forum was introduced to me by my cousin and ever since then I've been following this forum but never had a chance to contribute. The information being shared on this forum is incredible I must say, especially from gurus like Spec/Q/Matt/Veni etc. Thanks a ton for bringing so much information to this community. I have two quick question guys although it might sound dumb.

1. Is the demand data listed in the monthly VB are applications waiting for visa no to be available? or is it the total no of applications with I-140 approved and waiting to file 485?

2. I've been keeping track of the EB-2I demand data since March 2013. The Demand then was 42,400 until 01/12 and now it is at 42,925. How can this increase when EB2-I dates are stagnated at 01 Sep 04?

flexan,
Welcome to the forum.
#1 The totals are the number of applicants pre-adjudicated and waiting for a VISA number.
#2 This could be due to several reasons, Porting, applications being processed and pre-adjudicatied...etc.

[indian1975]

flexan,
Welcome to the forum.
#1 The totals are the number of applicants pre-adjudicated and waiting for a VISA number.
#2 This could be due to several reasons, Porting, applications being processed and pre-adjudicatied...etc.

Sorry to ask you again here, Stil I am not getting the answer you gave here.
1# that means the count included I-140's who are not yet filed for 485?

[Spectator]

Sorry to ask you again here, Stil I am not getting the answer you gave here.
1# that means the count included I-140's who are not yet filed for 485?

No, the number does not include any cases where the I-485 has not been filed.

By definition, an I-485 cannot be pre-adjudicated if it has never been submitted.

[suninphx]

EB-2 China how has priority date 14 July 2008 will get his GC in 3 months. EB-3 China how has priority 14 July 2008 will get his GC not earlier than 2014 summer. Is just seams like EB3C is ahead, in reality EB3C will retrogress soon.

That may very well happen or who knows few lucky ones EB3-C may even get GC this FY itself... I was just pointing to one more evidence how messed up this whole system is..

EB3-C retrogession is a given...every one knows that..

[Spectator]

Spec,
can we make an assumption that EB2 ROW is not going to require any spillover other than FB visas which are already added to it?. The reason being there is no mention of potential cut off date.

No, I don't think that is an entirely safe assumption. EB2-WW might, in the worst case use a little bit of Fall Down from EB1, but there is no realistic chance of retrogression for EB2-WW. For that to happen, they would have to exceed their initial allocation plus most of the Fall Down from EB1.

what concerns me is the fact that even though 45,188 is the total allocated for EB2WW, the numbers that you have calculated might exceed 45K (Requiring upto 52K), in that case, can the EB1/EB4 spillover could mostly be consumed by EB2ROW and we can have a scenario of almost negligable spillover to India.
In other words if the EB2ROW demand remains very high , will the spillover from EB1/4 applied across all EB2 categories leaving india with very little benifit.

I'm a little confused by what you mean. You may need to expand on what you are saying by quoting which number you are referring to and how you have extrapolated it. We may also have a different use of terminology.

45,188 is the initial total for ALL EB2. Ultimately, the number of visas EB2 receives will be 45.2k plus the Fall Down from EB1. By EB1 Fall Down, I mean all spare visas from EB1, EB4 and EB5.

With Fall Down from EB1, it should reach somewhere around 55-60k. If it doesn't, then we are going to have a problem!

The new initial allocation for EB2-WW is 38.9k. WW in this context refers to ROW/M/P i.e. the non-retrogressed Countries in EB2.

Perhaps you have prorated the current figures. That's not valid for ROW, since very high approvals have been seen (and were expected) in the first half of the year. They should settle down now to a lower monthly number.

[indiani]

Sorry that the second part of my post was confusing but You did answer my question that the approval rates will decrease and pro rating will not give the realistic picture

what amount of spillover at the minimum can we anticipate for EB2I this fiscal year with all the data available at this time?

[vizcard]

Sorry that the second part of my post was confusing but You did answer my question that the approval rates will decrease and pro rating will not give the realistic picture

what amount of spillover at the minimum can we anticipate for EB2I this fiscal year with all the data available at this time?

Min could be 0. I'm not being facetious here. There's not been any new info for a while. So if EB2WW uses all the spillover from EB1, then we are left with the initial allocation plus the FB excess.

That being said, I personally don't expect that to happen. I am in the camp that expects spillover of about 20k SOFAD incl FB excess.

[Spectator]

Can admins delete/archive everything except first and last few pages on this thread? Is there a way to get to the last page without navigating to the discussion and clicking on "last" button?

civilengineer,

That's unlikely to happen.

Usually, the last post in the Calculations and Predictions sub-forum is from this thread, so clicking on "Go to last post" on the top right hand side of the main forum page will take you to the last post of this thread.

95% of the time, getting to the last post requires only one click.

Hope that helps.

[luckycub]

civilengineer,

That's unlikely to happen.

Usually, the last post in the Calculations and Predictions sub-forum is from this thread, so clicking on "Go to last post" on the top right hand side of the main forum page will take you to the last post of this thread.

95% of the time, getting to the last post requires only one click.

Hope that helps.

Hi

There is another way that guarantees you to the last page - you can simply change the page number of the URL to a bigger one such as 200 or even 1000, then save it to your favorites, when you want to browse the link, just click the link you saved - it will bring you to the very last page everytime..... ex:

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...)-2013/page500

Hope this helps. Thanks.

[sbhagwat2000]

Min could be 0. I'm not being facetious here. There's not been any new info for a while. So if EB2WW uses all the spillover from EB1, then we are left with the initial allocation plus the FB excess.

That being said, I personally don't expect that to happen. I am in the camp that expects spillover of about 20k SOFAD incl FB excess.

You can have no SO. Lets say EB1 + eb4 + eb 5 = 5000 + 2000 = 7000. Then EB2 will have 45000 + 7000 = 52000(I wont go for the 55k-60k figure as that assumes EB1 and 4 will use less than their yearly allocation). For no SO scenario - EB2 WW has to use around 46000 numbers. Has this happened before? Yes once in 2008 - EB2 WW used 48000 visas. Can it happen again - theres very a small chance. We need to see the origin of the demand that is labor applications for EB2 WW. Have their numbers increased , decreased or stayed the same. Last year EB2 WW got 25000 which was really low on account of retrogression. So how much pent up demand is there we dont know. Hopefully WW will fold before 40000.

[Spectator]

Sorry that the second part of my post was confusing but You did answer my question that the approval rates will decrease and pro rating will not give the realistic picture

what amount of spillover at the minimum can we anticipate for EB2I this fiscal year with all the data available at this time?

indiani,

Glad that answered your question.

As for your new question - how long is a piece of string?

Since EB1 itself will provide the most spillover to EB2, I think the performance of that Category is the key.

To date, there hasn't been good, reliable information on how EB1 is doing. I have some doubts about the EB1 Trackitt data at face value because it appears very skewed towards Indian approvals and is lacking approvals for ROW. There has been no information provided outside of Trackitt. Last year, EB1 saw an increase in approvals in the latter part of the year.

The % of Indian EB1 approvals of the whole of EB1 increased by a third in FY2012 over FY2011 to nearly a quarter of the total. Is that a continuing trend or not?

Depending on all the different assumptions, I see the current realistic range of total visas available to EB2-I as between 12-18k. That's a wide range, but it reflects the uncertainty in my view.

How far that can move the dates depends on the level of porting and how many of those cases are approved this FY.

As vizcard said, there is a "nuclear option" where EB2-I would receive very little spillover. Like vizcard, I don't believe that scenario is very likely at all.

Any thoughts are subject to quite rapid change as new information becomes available, so just consider it the "Thought For Today".

As a PS, I am increasingly wondering whether EB5 may be a dark horse for some extra spillover. The EB5 community are very frustrated with USCIS over the shifting adjudication standards for I-526.

In February, the pending backlog of I-526 had reached over 6k, which translates to nearly 15k EB5 approvals. The average monthly completions are no higher than in FY2012. If USCIS do not sort this out, EB5 approvals may be lower than expected.

[qesehmk]

civilengineer - welcome to forum! Probably you havent noticed the navigation buttons at the top as well as bottom of every threadpage. They allow you to go to the last or first page in one click. Also when on forum home page - you can click on the >> buttons to go to last page. Hope that answers your question.

Can admins delete/archive everything except first and last few pages on this thread? Is there a way to get to the last page without navigating to the discussion and clicking on "last" button?

[sbhagwat2000]

I was thinking the same about EB5. I dont have the data like you but have been reading about slower approval times, regional center fraud investigation and move of processing center from CAlifornia to Washington. All this I was thinking could impact approvals. How do you know though that monthly approvals are same as last year even though backlog has increased. Also the danger could be that USCIS could ramp up approvals.

[Spectator]

I was thinking the same about EB5. I dont have the data like you but have been reading about slower approval times, regional center fraud investigation and move of processing center from CAlifornia to Washington. All this I was thinking could impact approvals. How do you know though that monthly approvals are same as last year even though backlog has increased. Also the danger could be that USCIS could ramp up approvals.

I think the biggest problem has been changes to the Tenant Occupancy Methodology.

Notice I said Completions, not Approvals. In FY2012, the average I-526 monthly Completions were 386. For FY2013 October-February the average is 358. Average I-526 Approvals have historically been about 80% of Completions.

All the data is available in the USCIS Dashboard.

Usually USCIS have also published the All Form Types Performance Data on a quarterly basis which had the Approval figures, but they have not done so this FY. The last one available covers FY2012.

[vizcard]

Can admins delete/archive everything except first and last few pages on this thread? Is there a way to get to the last page without navigating to the discussion and clicking on "last" button?

civilengineer,

That's unlikely to happen.

Usually, the last post in the Calculations and Predictions sub-forum is from this thread, so clicking on "Go to last post" on the top right hand side of the main forum page will take you to the last post of this thread.

95% of the time, getting to the last post requires only one click.

Hope that helps.

Civilengineer
Here's what I do. I have bookmarked the page and then went in to the properties and change the page number at the end to a very high number. Example - when you bookmark this page 61, the link will look like this -
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...s)-2013/page61
Just change the 61 at the end to 5000.

Next time you click the bookmark, it'll take you to the last page in the thread.

[sbhagwat2000]

I think the biggest problem has been changes to the Tenant Occupancy Methodology.

Notice I said Completions, not Approvals. In FY2012, the average I-526 monthly Completions were 386. For FY2013 October-February the average is 358. Average I-526 Approvals have historically been about 80% of Completions.

All the data is available in the USCIS Dashboard.

Usually USCIS have also published the All Form Types Performance Data on a quarterly basis which had the Approval figures, but they have not done so this FY. The last one available covers FY2012.

Makes sense. Another thing I am thinking of is CO may move dates for EB2 I in sept directly. The reason being this - All the apps pre 2007 are preadjudicated and new apps are going to be interfiling which are preadjudicated rather quickly. May be they dont want to give time for interfiling also. A late single move may be the simplest for them with a fixed target instead of a moving one.

[indiani]

Makes sense. Another thing I am thinking of is CO may move dates for EB2 I in sept directly. The reason being this - All the apps pre 2007 are preadjudicated and new apps are going to be interfiling which are preadjudicated rather quickly. May be they dont want to give time for interfiling also. A late single move may be the simplest for them with a fixed target instead of a moving one.

I believe that he will start making some moves in july/august, exactly how much obviously Guru's like spec just mentioned and appears almost impossible to make informed prediction as the information itself is not available precisely as I just dont understand why CO/USCIS/DOS just not provide approvals in all categories on monthly basis. (they do on yearly basis now)
Even lets say there is more than 10K spillover and they just don't use them, they will send it to FB for next fiscal year. There will be no accountability. My life has turned upside down with last year's erratic movements and unprecdictability this year.(sorry for my rant about personal tragedy)
being nov 2007 EB2I, I dont want to make job change with AC21 and carry risk of RFE, so will wait till august 10 2013(for the last bulletin) and then perhaps if no GC by then I will change job.