He does not want to do this every year so probably will build up the pipe line for next fiscal year also. I expect a total of approximately 2 year movement in the next 2-3 VB. I would say early to mid 2009. That what he did for EB2I and probably will do for EB3ROW also.Originally Posted by drugoi
vizcard -how do you measure the word "Skill" - only way it is measured by USCIS is by years of experience (note - education can be substituted by experience in this country), if thats the case how come EB3 lags more than 5 yrs behind EB2?
As Spec said sometime back, USCIS operates weird sometimes and we have to just accept the weirdness (the laws that governs USCIS itself is weird, especially in this case and CIR is just gonna bring more weirdness)
pdmay2008,
It is entirely likely that EB2-C will not received any spillover this year and will only have their guaranteed allocation of visas. In fact, I would say it is a certainty.
If EB2-C can move to a later Cut Off Date using only their initial allocation than EB2-I can with their initial allocation plus all available spillover, then their will be a gap in the Cut Off Dates between EB2-C and Eb2-I.
EB2-C can move to late 2008 based on the Demand Data and number of visas available to them. That date is likely later than EB2-I can achieve, even with the most optimistic scenario.
Such a situation has happened for a while previously in FY2011. CO explained it in the May 2011 VB.
In the May 2011 VB, EB2-I (who were using spillover visas) had a Cut Off date of 01JUL06.Allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers in accordance with Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) Section 202(a)(5)
INA Section 202(a)(5) provides that if total demand in a calendar quarter will be insufficient to use all available numbers in an Employment preference, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual per-country limits. Based on current levels of demand, there will be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment First and Second preferences.
Such numbers may be allocated without regard to per-country limits, once a country has reached its preference annual limit. Since under INA Section 203(e) such numbers must be provided strictly in priority date order regardless of chargeability, greater number use by one country would indicate greater demand by applicants from that country with earlier priority dates.
Based on amount and priority dates of pending demand and year-to-date number use, a different cut-off date could be applied to each oversubscribed country, for the purpose of assuring that the maximum amount of available numbers will be used.
Note that a cut-off date imposed to control the use of “otherwise unused” numbers could be earlier than the cut-off date established to control number use under a quarterly or per-country annual limit.
For example, at present the India Employment Second preference cut-off date governs the use of numbers under Section 202(a)(5), India having reached its Employment Second annual limit; the China Employment Second preference cut-off date governs number use under the quarterly limit, since China has not yet reached its Employment Second annual limit.
EB2-C (who were just using their initial allocation) had a Cut Off Date of 01AUG06 for the reasons stated above.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
At this point they will get just maybe EAD as EB2I did last year. This country needs doctors, researchers, investors, engineers, agricultors, etc and not just IT "high skilled" EB2I. That is why we have a pool of visa numbers broked up in diffrent categories and not a big pool for everybody.
This is utter travesty Vizcard. this is a distortion created in immigration by country quota. Now EB3ROW have been moving to EB2ROW just like EB3ICs have been doing and so now EB2 is going to become clogged up. It's surprising how fast EB3ROW has moved (2 years so far this year).
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
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That explains it.. Good to know CO was using spill over in May 2011, even though it was not spill over quarter.
TSC || PD: May-2008 || RD: 04-Jan-2012 || ND: 06-Jan-2012 || FP: 20-Mar-2012|| EAD/AP: 13-Feb-2012 || I-485: Waiting... Waiting...
Q,
I'm not sure how you've arrived at that figure.
EB3-ROW finished last year at 01OCT06, so the movement through May is little more than year.
EB3-C has moved 2 years, but that seems to be due to very low demand.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec, Now that we know what path CO has opted for EB3 ROW movement, what is your preliminary estimate of the movement in next quarter?
I am sure he has a baseline estimate of certain number of CP cases that are in the bag, some estimate of USCIS processing efficiency, and some estimate of pipeline build up.
That was happened during the implementation of Kazarian case ruling for the first time to EB1 cases . Extra 12000 visas were fallen down from EB1 to Eb2 as announced in April 2011.
If EB3-ROW demand is high post July 2007 then the movement might be enough. If it is similar to current demand, there is a risk of wasting ROW visas.
I assume your question relates to EB2-I movement in Q4.
My personal opinion is that we won't see one large jump, but that it will be staggered (either 2 or 3 stages). That is what has happened previously.
That gives CO a little longer to judge use in other Categories and other Countries within EB2.
If it were a 3 stage movement something like
Jul 2013 - 01JAN07 (clear out porting cases)
Aug 2013 - 01JAN08 (clear out pre 2008 cases)
Sep 2013 - Final date depending on numbers available
If it were a 2 stage movement something like
Jul 2013 - 01JAN08 (clear out all porting & pre 2008 cases)
Aug 2013 - 01JAN08 (repeat to give maximum time)
Sep 2013 - Final date depending on numbers available
In both cases, the August 2012 date needs to be a "safe" date which cannot lead to overuse.
Depending on what (by that time) CO thinks is "safe" the dates above would change accordingly.
The advantage of a 2 stage approach is that by early August (when he sets the September VB) CO might have slightly better information with which to set the COD if porting cases are taking longer to complete.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
From the VB
My emphasis.D. EMPLOYMENT THIRD PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY
The Employment-based Third preference category cut-off date for most countries has advanced significantly. This has been done in an attempt to generate demand so that the annual numerical limits may be fully utilized, and such movements may continue for the next few months. The rapid movement of cut-off dates is often followed months later by a dramatic increase in demand for numbers. Once such demand begins to materialize the cut-off date movements will begin to slow or stop.
It looks like EB3-WW will advance considerably over the next few months.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Gurus,
Any updates to the first page predictions based on May VB?
Looks like CO doesn't learn from his previous mistakes. CO wants to fill his pipeline, so he can get the demand numbers that will help his future predictions. Filling pipeline regularly instead of with massive movements, will help in granting GCs in order of PD, instead of lottery like what happened with EB2I last year.
I suspect this time it will be lottery for EB3-ROW.
Except for India and Philippines the Jul 2007 barrier has been broken for EB3 and fresh intake has started. Great news for all those who were waiting to file for 485 all these years.
Not to nitpick, but why did CO say, the movement will be in 4-6 weeks for 3rd Quarter for EB3 ROW in the comments section in March 2013 VB
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5885.html
Employment Third:
Worldwide: Four to six weeks
Does that mean he wasn't sure when he was going to move to generate demand at that time?
Spec and other Gurus,
Pardon my ignorance.
I thought visa numbers are allocated by PD in each category.
if EB3 visa are available, why CO is moving EB3-WW dates instead of EB3-I.
isn’t it, supposed to be based on PD ?. Am I missing something.
I appreciate your response.
Thank You
Tatikonda
Also interesting is that CO didnt mention retrogression (only slow or stop). He did keep mentioning retrogression as a distinct possibility for EB2I when he wanted to generate demand last FY. Maybe Im reading too much between the lines.
Spec,
Can we conclude that the low demand in EB-3 WW and other chargeability areas are due to Porting?
EB3-C is very close to EB2-C. It's feasible that EB3-C may actually reach a better priority date than EB2-C. Thsi actually has happened in the family-based categories before. I can'tt hink of anything in the INA that woudl stopp the Visa Office from doing so.
gc_soon,
That's a bit harsh. I think he has learnt from last year.
The EB2-I problem was caused by leaving the COD at too late a date for too long. To be fair, that was due to USCIS outright lying about demand - they wanted the dates to move even further in May 2012.
Had the EB2-I Cut Off Date been retrogressed in the February/March 2012 VB virtually none of the problems would have arisen.
Since EB3-ROW May 2013 applications are unlikely to be adjudicated until August (3 months) at the earliest, CO appears to be able to move the dates forward for a couple more VBs.
As long as he retrogresses in the August VB at the latest, then no very late AOS PD are likely to be approved. Consular Processed cases are another matter, but he probably needs some of those to reach the number of visas available to EB3-ROW.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Tatikonda,
EB3-I only have an allocation of 3,163 visas, so EB3-I Cut Off Dates can only move based on that figure.
CO can use estimates of future demand when setting the Cut Off Dates. He knows there will be demand later this FY for EB3-ROW, once the new applications are adjudicated.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
I don't think there is particularly proven low demand from EB3-WW at this stage. There may be in future years beyond 2008.
The movement is solely necessitated by running out of cases submitted when the EB3-WW Cut Off Date was last Current, just as it was for EB2-I.
One of the reasons the Cut Off Dates need to move substantially is just so CO can gauge what AOS demand beyond July 2008 looks like in EB3 for China, Mexico and ROW.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
The Demand data has the demand beyond July 2008 right? - Do you mean the real demand after porting, etc?
True. But since CO didn't mention retrogression, I thought dates might be open till end of FY and USCIS will approve the easy cases first without preference to PDs as long as dates are current. If dates retrogress after a couple of months, then that will ensure earlier PDs are given more chance and later PDs at least get EAD/AP.
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