EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[Kanmani]

Some of the points that I read from various websites w.r.t CP ( There is no Government document available)

After NVC fees is paid, a parcel (documents) will be sent to the applicant. The applicant can delay the consular interview for one year from the day of receipt of the parcel , provided he submits valid reason for the delay.

On the day of the interview the applicant is given a clear verdict, pass or fail.

If fail, he is eligible for re-interview without new application, fees etc within one year.

If pass, he is stamped with immigrant visa which is valid for only 6 months, within that he must enter the US to get his physical GC. Otherwise the immigrant visa is not valid meaning the visa number is wasted.

I am really confused with the time limit ( 1 year interview time 1 year appeal time), though we all know NVC sends fee notices well ahead. As S said, we will ever know how they operate.

[qesehmk]

I have heard from friends that there have been instances when people have gone back to India and still received GCs in mail at a friends' address! So once 485 has been filed USCIS mostly blindly processes it as long as it is a normal case (as in all documents in order, no felony records and clear FBI namecheck and no revokations).

There is only one trigger that tells the USCIS that the case is "lost" and that is a revoked I140 or I485. if the sponsoring company does not do that, then I don't think there's any way for USCIS to know this... even when the person is current (unless there's some form of RFE).

In the past, we had used a term called "demand destruction" to capture some of those lost cases & cases where ppl got laid off. There might still be some of that but I don't remember the factor Q and Spec used to estimate demand or if it is still valid.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Not to exhibit schadenfreude, but this could have a pretty significant impact on spillover to EB2IC not just through porting, but also through EB2ROW fall across.

Small nugget - Fragomen released a bulletin article on mar 1 stating the potential impacts of the sequester which may impact porting.
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At the State Department, officials have already warned that consular services like visa processing might be delayed. Labor Department functions – including PERM, labor condition application (LCA) and prevailing wage operations – are not funded by fees and could also face delays due to cuts.
Even if sequester is avoided, there remains the threat of a government shutdown later in March when a stopgap government funding measure expires.

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[geeaarpee]

Some of the points that I read from various websites w.r.t CP ( There is no Government document available)

After NVC fees is paid, a parcel (documents) will be sent to the applicant. The applicant can delay the consular interview for one year from the day of receipt of the parcel , provided he submits valid reason for the delay.

On the day of the interview the applicant is given a clear verdict, pass or fail.

If fail, he is eligible for re-interview without new application, fees etc within one year.

If pass, he is stamped with immigrant visa which is valid for only 6 months, within that he must enter the US to get his physical GC. Otherwise the immigrant visa is not valid meaning the visa number is wasted.

I am really confused with the time limit ( 1 year interview time 1 year appeal time), though we all know NVC sends fee notices well ahead. As S said, we will ever know how they operate.

Exactly thats what I was talking about - ACCOUNTABILITY & TRANSPARENCY thats what missing - They can treat EB immigrants like whatever they want, but they should be accountable and transparent to their fellow countrymen (FBs are filed by Citizens and PRs). If you are wasting 18k in a single year and you don't even reach out to your fellow countrymen on what happened then you got a PROBLEM man!

[Pedro Gonzales]

Exactly thats what I was talking about - ACCOUNTABILITY & TRANSPARENCY thats what missing - They can treat EB immigrants like whatever they want, but they should be accountable and transparent to their fellow countrymen (FBs are filed by Citizens and PRs). If you are wasting 18k in a single year and you don't even reach out to your fellow countrymen on what happened then you got a PROBLEM man!

We're getting off track on this thread. If this discussion gathers momentum, i'll move it to its own thread.

[gten20]

We're getting off track on this thread. If this discussion gathers momentum, i'll move it to its own thread.

Thank you.

[suninphx]

Spec,

I ran some filters on trackitt to find out I485-ROW filings for Oct-Feb period for FY11,12,and 13 and this is what I found

FY 2011 - 222 caes
FY 2012 - 212 cases and
FY 2013 - 253 cases

Given EB2-ROW was retrogressed for last 3 months of FY2012..I still don’t see 'significant' increase in EB2-ROW filings (not at least from this data). Do you think that EB2-ROW demand is tapering off and might yield some spillover?

[Spectator]

Spec,

I ran some filters on trackitt to find out I485-ROW filings for Oct-Feb period for FY11,12,and 13 and this is what I found

FY 2011 - 222 caes
FY 2012 - 212 cases and
FY 2013 - 253 cases

Given EB2-ROW was retrogressed for last 3 months of FY2012..I still don’t see 'significant' increase in EB2-ROW filings (not at least from this data). Do you think that EB2-ROW demand is tapering off and might yield some spillover?

suninphx,

That's a slightly unfair comparison IMO.

There hasn't been enough time in FY2013 for all the cases to be added to Trackitt. People are notoriously slow in doing so.

I think we are using slightly different filters (I'm including NIW for instance), but that's not an issue.

My equivalent figures to your post would be:

FY2011 -- 265
FY2012 -- 261
FY2013 -- 289

However, if they were shown as cases added to Trackitt by Mar 15 in the relevant year they become:

FY2011 -- 167
FY2012 -- 178
FY2013 -- 289

Of those 289 in FY2013, 143 have a USCIS receipt date of November 2012.

Between June to December 2012 USCIS Receipt Dates, there have been 422 Trackitt cases added for EB2-ROW. Only 2 of those were approved in FY2012. A third of those remain pending.

[qesehmk]

Suninphx I am surprised why you dont think that 212 ->> 253 is a significant increase. That's a 20% increase which can easily consume any remaining EB2ROW quota.

[suninphx]

Suninphx I am surprised why you dont think that 212 ->> 253 is a significant increase. That's a 20% increase which can easily consume any remaining EB2ROW quota.

qesehmk, not really...when you take into consideration 3 months retrogession.

My point is -ROW seems to be running at ~50- cases /month (for previous years) ... on trackitt....and they are below that average currently.. (~253 against ~400 expected)...Spectator has fair point there about people being slow in adding cases ..so we will see if we reach to that average rate in coming months... as things stand now...they are running below avarage

[Spectator]

qesehmk, not really...when you take into consideration 3 months retrogession.

My point is -ROW seems to be running at ~50- cases /month (for previous years) ... on trackitt....and they are below that average currently.. (~253 against ~400 expected)...Spectator has fair point there about people being slow in adding cases ..so we will see if we reach to that average rate in coming months... as things stand now...they are running below avarage

suninphx,

Here's the numbers to date:

Oct-12 --- 29 (when all PD had to be prior to 2012)
Nov-12 -- 143
Dec-12 --- 59
Jan-13 --- 33
Feb-13 --- 25
Mar-13 ---- 9

Total --- 298 - Average - 50

If we take the period June 2012 - Feb 2013, then there have been 478 cases added to Trackitt. Over 9 months, that is an average of 53, so the 50/month average is about right.

The problem is that 4 months from FY2012 has been pushed into FY2013 so that there is likely to be 16 months of approvals in FY2013 (i.e. 16 * 50 = 800 rather than 12 * 50 = 600).

If sequestration hits DOL then that might ameliorate the effect, but in previous years their is a considerable tail past a USCIS RD of March that gets approved in the FY. With the current quicker processing times by USCIS, even a DOL slowdown might be countered.

I agree we need to see what the monthly number settles down to for the rest of FY2013 - unfortunately that information won't be clear for months.

[qesehmk]

3 month retro should equal 25% annual demand and so when the gates open - you should see 100% jump in over 3 months e.g. Oct-Dec.
Whereas we are only seeing 20% jump.

Agree about slow to add. But I really don't think that it would every catch up.

qesehmk, not really...when you take into consideration 3 months retrogession.

My point is -ROW seems to be running at ~50- cases /month (for previous years) ... on trackitt....and they are below that average currently.. (~253 against ~400 expected)...Spectator has fair point there about people being slow in adding cases ..so we will see if we reach to that average rate in coming months... as things stand now...they are running below avarage

[suninphx]

suninphx,

Here's the numbers to date:

Oct-12 --- 29 (when all PD had to be prior to 2012)
Nov-12 -- 143
Dec-12 --- 59
Jan-13 --- 33
Feb-13 --- 25
Mar-13 ---- 9

Total --- 298 - Average - 50

If we take the period June 2012 - Feb 2013, then there have been 478 cases added to Trackitt. Over 9 months, that is an average of 53, so the 50/month average is about right.

The problem is that 4 months from FY2012 has been pushed into FY2013 so that there is likely to be 16 months of approvals in FY2013 (i.e. 16 * 50 = 800 rather than 12 * 50 = 600).

If sequestration hits DOL then that might ameliorate the effect, but in previous years their is a considerable tail past a USCIS RD of March that gets approved in the FY. With the current quicker processing times by USCIS, even a DOL slowdown might be countered.

I agree we need to see what the monthly number settles down to for the rest of FY2013 - unfortunately that information won't be clear for months.

Spectator,

I did not bring the PD at all in the mix to keep the filter simple. I am just running a filter based on RD. So my logic is - if avarage is indeed ~50/month then we should see ~400 cases (50* 8 months - that would include 3 retro months from previous FY)...we see ~250-275 cases currently ..which are below average..thats all

[suninphx]

3 month retro should equal 25% annual demand and so when the gates open - you should see 100% jump in over 3 months e.g. Oct-Dec.
Whereas we are only seeing 20% jump.

Agree about slow to add. But I really don't think that it would every catch up.

so you agree to my logic or not...not very clear to me from your reply

[qesehmk]

Yes. I think so.

so you agree to my logic or not...not very clear to me from your reply

[Spectator]

Spectator,

I did not bring the PD at all in the mix to keep the filter simple. I am just running a filter based on RD. So my logic is - if avarage is indeed ~50/month then we should see ~400 cases (50* 8 months - that would include 3 retro months from previous FY)...we see ~250-275 cases currently ..which are below average..thats all

I am not bringing PD into the equation either, only USCIS Receipt Date for the I-485.

As I've pointed out, there are the number expected when you consider that some people brought things forward and submitted their I-485 in June 2012, knowing dates would be retrogressed until the new FY.

If you are looking at October to February, you are ignoring the fact that June-September 2012 had 191 receipts, of which 174 were in June 2012, just before dates retrogressed. Therefore you wouldn't expect to see 8 months worth received by USCIS in the period October-February.

That is why I used the June 2012 to February 2013 range, since it captures all the additional cases and averages 53 / month. Both January and February don't even look complete yet, so that figure is likely to rise.

In different terms:

@ 50 / month we would expect 50*4 = 200 for June-September. There were actually 191.

@ 50 / month we would expect 50*5 = 250 for October-February. There are actually 289 to date.

@ 50 / month we would expect 50*9 = 450 for June-February. There are actually 480 to date.

Maybe we just agree to disagree.

[suninphx]

Maybe we just agree to disagree.

Probably ...

thanks for additional prespective and numbers though..

I will keep watching how trackitt numbers build up...

[JosephM]

Gurus, My Priority date is 12/14/2007 EB2 India any estimates getting current?
thanks in advance

[vizcard]

Gurus, My Priority date is 12/14/2007 EB2 India any estimates getting current?
thanks in advance

Sep 2013 latest.

[vizcard]

No action in 2 and half days. Looks like everyone had a great St Patrick's Day

[harapatta2012]

Vizcard,
When do you expect Aug 15, 2008 PD to become current?? What are chances by sep2013- 50%, 70%, 99%?

No action in 2 and half days. Looks like everyone had a great St Patrick's Day

[natvyas]

Do we have any idea how EB1 is tracking YTD in terms of I-140 approvals? Wouldnt that give us an idea of their usage?

Regards
Nat

[Spectator]

Do we have any idea how EB1 is tracking YTD in terms of I-140 approvals? Wouldnt that give us an idea of their usage?

Regards
Nat

Nat,

Such data would be very useful if it was published.

I haven't seen anything published since July 2011.

[vizcard]

Vizcard,
When do you expect Aug 15, 2008 PD to become current?? What are chances by sep2013- 50%, 70%, 99%?

I'd say 50% or worse for Sep 2013. My PD is Aug 20, 2008 so im literally in the same window as you (Aug 15-22). Based on Spec and Qs latest calculations, we will be on the outside looking in. We just have to wait till the July VB to get more visibility. Good luck to both of us.

PS: this is assuming no relief from CIR.

[erikbond101]

And my PD April 30 2008. What are my chances....gurus....percentage wise.? I will be very happy if I can atleast apply 485 this year.