EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[Spectator]

There is a lot of discussion around where the dates would be at end of FY 2013. How long would it stay put after cut-off reaches mid-2008 before retrogression takes place?

My PD is Jan 2009, let's for a minute assume CO pushes it to Feb 2009 by September 2013 (very miniscule likelihood I know), the result would be a big increase in demand and CO will want to retrogress - what is the window before it goes back to 2004 or 05 as it inevitably will.

Also once retrogressed how long before it's back to 08,09 cut-off in 2014?

I know my questions here might come across as too eager but I'd appreciate any intelligent theories...thanks!

ksur23,

On the basis that CO will approach FY2014 similarly to FY2013 (and I think that is a fair assumption), I would expect fairly severe retrogression in the October 2012 VB because, at that time, only the initial 7% allocation will be available (252 visas / month).

I wouldn't expect EB2-I Cut Off Dates to get back to 2008 until around July 2014, since porting cases with an earlier PD can probably consume the initial allocation. How far the Cut Off Date can go in FY2014 is entirely dependent on the amount of spillover available.

[Spectator]

I have a question regarding Consular Processing. My PD is June 2009 and I did not file I-485 since I was changing jobs. I know it wouldn't get current anytime soon but just wanted to plan. If CO moves priority dates from June to Sep next year and retrogresses in October, is Consualr Processing risky when compared to I-485.

What is the advantage of going the I-485 route since I am yet to file it and its not pre-adjudicated?

gcpursuit,

The obvious advantage of I-485 is that

a) EAD and AP are available.

b) The advantages of the AC21 provisions are available e.g. I-140 portability after I-485 has been pending 180 days. For CP, the position and employer mentioned in the I-140 must remain available.

c) No travel to obtain the medical and undergo the Consular Interview.

The advantage of CP is that NVC usually schedule the Consular Interview quicker than USCIS process the I-485, although USCIS have been processing rather faster lately.

I'm not sure Ron advocates CP for Indian applicants as strongly now - there have been some recent horror stories of denials at Indian Consulates. You'd need to trawl ImmInfo for the relevant threads.

You would also need to allow the time it takes USCIS to transfer the I-140 to NVC if it wasn't specified initially. This involves submitting an I-824 and paying $405 for the trouble. The process can take a long time - it can't be a last minute decision.

[ksur23]

ksur23,

On the basis that CO will approach FY2014 similarly to FY2013 (and I think that is a fair assumption), I would expect fairly severe retrogression in the October 2012 VB because, at that time, only the initial 7% allocation will be available (252 visas / month).

I wouldn't expect EB2-I Cut Off Dates to get back to 2008 until around July 2014, since porting cases with an earlier PD can probably consume the initial allocation. How far the Cut Off Date can go in FY2014 is entirely dependent on the amount of spillover available.

Thanks Spec. This would mean USCIS would have to use up all the spillovers in a small window of 2 or 3 months between July and September 2013. As soon as October is retrogressed USCIS will stop working on later-than-retrogression-cut-off-date. So we are basically looking at

1) USCIS working overtime to potentially provide 16k+FB spillover number of GCs in a 2-3 month window

or

2) USCIS not using entire spillover.

So in essence the 2008 filers are not out of jail yet and 2009 filers are possibly staring at 2014 Q4?

Thanks in advance for any clarification provided!

[sdesh005]

That should be around Feb 2009 assuming 21K normal SOFAD + 19K FB spillover. Now - if we assume 75% of that becomes reality - that still means Sep 2008. So all in all 2013 is going to be a good year.

So if we assume that some FB visas will flow into EB even next year (FY-2014) even if not to the same extent of 19K, then can we expect that mid-2009 PD can clear up by the same time next year, around September 2014 or so? I'm talking even in absence of CIR that is...

[Spectator]

ksur23,

USCIS were able to process 20k spillover in 3 months in FY2010 and 27k spillover in 5 months in FY2011. In FY2012 USCIS appeared to process even higher monthly volumes prior to retrogression.

I'm not sure that's such a great concern.

[idiotic]

Gurus,

One small clarification. Please explain me the thoughts about how Spillover visas will be divided between India and China as both are retrogressed.

The logic I am able to get from the law is

EB1 => EB2 ROW => EB2 backlogged countries => EB3 ROW => EB3 backlogged countries

However, I find that distribution among backlogged countries is not clear. Please throw some light on this.

[qesehmk]

with those assumptions - absolutely yes.

So if we assume that some FB visas will flow into EB even next year (FY-2014) even if not to the same extent of 19K, then can we expect that mid-2009 PD can clear up by the same time next year, around September 2014 or so? I'm talking even in absence of CIR that is...

[dec2007]

Dec2007, i think normally this RFE should be cleared within a few weeks since you responded. July is too far out in future. So I don't see any reason to worry. you should get yours soon! All the best!

Thanks Q, we responded on May 2012. Is it because dates have retrogressed, they are not processing my RFE response?

[qesehmk]

So first they will divide the increase in quota ie. from 140K->> 158K across all categories/countries just like they did with the 140K. So china will get its share of teh increase regardless whether chinese dates are ahead of EB2I.

Then after a category/country exhausts its visas the spillover will start as follows:

EB4/5 -> EB1 -> EB2 -> EB3.

Lets call what extra comes to EB2 as X. So there are 3 main candidates to consume X EB2I/C/ROW. I am just assuming MP doesn't require any of X.
If ROW is current then more than likely it doesn't require any of X. So all of X goes EB2IC strictly in PD order. If EB2ROW were not current - some people think (like I do) that X should still be allocated based strictly on PD. However others (like Spec - correct me Spec if wrong) think that X will be further divided within EB2 as per the ratios e.g. 7% for India 7% for china and so on and as such ROW should receive 72%.

But to answer your question - if countries are backlogged within a category then X is given out strictly to oldest PD first.

Gurus,

One small clarification. Please explain me the thoughts about how Spillover visas will be divided between India and China as both are retrogressed.

The logic I am able to get from the law is

EB1 => EB2 ROW => EB2 backlogged countries => EB3 ROW => EB3 backlogged countries

However, I find that distribution among backlogged countries is not clear. Please throw some light on this.

[Kanmani]

On the basis that CO will approach FY2014 similarly to FY2013 (and I think that is a fair assumption), I would expect fairly severe retrogression in the October 2012 VB because, at that time, only the initial 7% allocation will be available (252 visas / month).

october 2013 vb?

[Spectator]

Gurus,

One small clarification. Please explain me the thoughts about how Spillover visas will be divided between India and China as both are retrogressed.

The logic I am able to get from the law is

EB1 => EB2 ROW => EB2 backlogged countries => EB3 ROW => EB3 backlogged countries

However, I find that distribution among backlogged countries is not clear. Please throw some light on this.

idiotic,

Once the spillover visas hits EB2 Countries that have reached the 7% limit, the allocation is purely by earliest PD.

Since EB2-C can hit August/September 2008 purely on their initial allocation, they won't get any spillover visas unless Cut Off Dates progress further than that.

Roughly speaking, that would happen if SOFAD is > 25k.

When they start to receive spillover, EB2-C would receive roughly 1 visa for every 5 that EB2-I receives because EB2-I has so many more applicants.

[vizcard]

There is a lot of discussion around where the dates would be at end of FY 2013. How long would it stay put after cut-off reaches mid-2008 before retrogression takes place?

My PD is Jan 2009, let's for a minute assume CO pushes it to Feb 2009 by September 2013 (very miniscule likelihood I know), the result would be a big increase in demand and CO will want to retrogress - what is the window before it goes back to 2004 or 05 as it inevitably will.

Also once retrogressed how long before it's back to 08,09 cut-off in 2014?

I know my questions here might come across as too eager but I'd appreciate any intelligent theories...thanks!

The traditional formula has been move aggressively in the summer, retrogress in Oct...rinse and repeat.

[qesehmk]

I think this is one of those "No News is a Good News" situation. It was fairly benign RFE to begin with. But you may just want to call up USCIS directly or through lawyer and check if you have satisfied their request. Don't worry too much Dec2007. Can understand your anxiety though. Best wishes.

Thanks Q, we responded on May 2012. Is it because dates have retrogressed, they are not processing my RFE response?

[longwait100]

I'm probably getting over anxious here, but any prediction about when the EB2I cut-off dates might reach Aug 2007 in fiscal 2013?

[idiotic]

Thanks Spec for the clarification. I understand your explanation and why you explained China will just receive their quota and nothing from the spillover in your front page calculation.

I viewed it slightly from a different angle(too simplistic). Let there be the usual spillover from all categories. Let's call it X. It has to come to EB2 I as it is the most retrogressed. Now, these fb spillover visas(19k) must be in addition to X. EB2 I will receive (X + 19k - Extra visas due for EB2C as part of 19k - Extra visas due for EB3 as part of 19k). Right?

Your estimation is that X will be less than or equal to 6, which I think is too low.

[idiotic]

Thanks a lot Qesehmk for your time and explanation.

[longwait100]

S & Q, any prediction about when Aug 2007 may become current in fiscal 2013?

[bvsamrat]

I may be wrong. But my instinct on 2 cents - Next bulletin might have surprise update on PD upto July 2008 as I guess some cases up to 2008 are getting revived probably for IBIS check.

S & Q, any prediction about when Aug 2007 may become current in fiscal 2013?

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec for the clarification. I understand your explanation and why you explained China will just receive their quota and nothing from the spillover in your front page calculation.

I viewed it slightly from a different angle(too simplistic). Let there be the usual spillover from all categories. Let's call it X. It has to come to EB2 I as it is the most retrogressed. Now, these fb spillover visas(19k) must be in addition to X. EB2 I will receive X+19k. Right?

Your estimation is that X will be less than or equal to 6, which I think is too low.

idiotic,

X + 12.9

12.9 = 18.0 - 5.1 (where 18.0 is the number of confirmed extra visas and 5.1 is the number of those allocated to EB3)

In a normal year 6 would be higher, but the EB2-WW visas that were borrowed last year need to be paid back this year. I agree it could be higher, but I see no evidence for that (yet). In any case, I prefer to err on the side of caution.

Last year EB2-I received 19.7k visas. Of that, about 3k was due to extra FB visas and maybe as many as 8k was due to numbers from EB2-WW. In addition, about 1.3k essentially came from EB3.

The underlying number could have been as low as 7.5k, which only represents spillover of less than 5k.

[idiotic]

Thanks as always. I just updated my old post with the corrected calculation which seems to be inline with yours. Thanks again!!

[idiotic]

idiotic,

X + 12.9

12.9 = 18.0 - 5.1 (where 18.0 is the number of confirmed extra visas and 5.1 is the number of those allocated to EB3)

In a normal year 6 would be higher, but the EB2-WW visas that were borrowed last year need to be paid back this year. I agree it could be higher, but I see no evidence for that (yet). In any case, I prefer to err on the side of caution.

Last year EB2-I received 19.7k visas. Of that, about 3k was due to extra FB visas and maybe as many as 8k was due to numbers from EB2-WW. In addition, about 1.3k essentially came from EB3.

The underlying number could have been as low as 7.5k, which only represents spillover of less than 5k.

Based on the past data, what is the minimum and maximum value of X? Also, the trend of the value of X will also be of help. Please let me know if you can help me figure out this.

[sdesh005]

with those assumptions - absolutely yes.

Q - Is it a fair assumption though? Is there enough spillover normally, and enough FB visas moving to EB every year to expect July 2009 PD to be current by end of FY 14 in the absence of CIR?

[qesehmk]

The normal spillover is 10-20K excluding FB spillover. FB spillover is not a normal thing given that FB itself has significant backlog. What makes them underutilize FB quota is puzzling. However still good for EB. So I think the assumption to have another FB spillover next year as well is quite optimistic.

Q - Is it a fair assumption though? Is there enough spillover normally, and enough FB visas moving to EB every year to expect July 2009 PD to be current by end of FY 14 in the absence of CIR?

[vizcard]

Based on the past data, what is the minimum and maximum value of X? Also, the trend of the value of X will also be of help. Please let me know if you can help me figure out this.

This might help you.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...FY2008-Onwards

[longwait100]

hope your instinct turns out to be true....btw, can you share the source of this information about IBIS check?

I may be wrong. But my instinct on 2 cents - Next bulletin might have surprise update on PD upto July 2008 as I guess some cases up to 2008 are getting revived probably for IBIS check.