EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[venkat]

I hope CO takes a sensible approach in allocating or making sure USCIS grants GC based on Priority Dates vs any other logic. He should be fair to people who are waiting in the line longer...

First he should determine the date he is going to push the PDs, then get to that date logically in the last 3 months of this Financial Year (July,Aug and Sep) so that PDs in late 2009 and early 2010 don't get GC before the poor souls in 2008.

Spec,
Nice to hear the term 'low hanging fruit' after a long time..It was exactly one year back that this term was used extensively in this forum...I think it is going to start again pretty soon :-)

In our hearts, we all know USCIS will just pick the "low hanging fruit".

I think it will be luck of the draw and depend on which case lands on the IO desk first. If dates move forward too fast, we will see a repeat of last year, where late PD are approved and earlier PD miss out.

[bvsamrat]

Spec. What is IBIS check? and what is the general expiry period?. If this takes time, then even general non porting EB2 2006/2007 PD guys are at disadvantage compared to latest filed 2008 Pd guys who may not need IBIS check (only if I know what is IBIS?)

[QUOTE=Spectator;33056]bvsamrat,

I b) In both cases, the IBIS check will probably have expired and need to be requested again.

[venkat]

Based on the procedure listed below it appears that DOS will tell USCIS which per-adjudicated cases get visa (GC) first:

If USCIS requests an immigrant visa number for a case that is not current, the request is moved to the "pending" file with the DOS. Data from this pending file is used by the DOS to calculate the appropriate cutoff dates for the backlogged categories in the Visa Bulletin each month.

Cases placed in the pending demand category are processed as immigrant visa numbers become available. The DOS communicates with the USCIS regarding the A numbers of the cases for which visa numbers have been authorized. These cases are then processed to completion and green cards are then issued by the USCIS.

This seems to be a streamlined process, with actual visa numbers tracked, issued, and assigned to particular green card cases as part of the approval process.

Bottom line: As per this USCIS randomly picking low hanging fruits should not be the case at least going forward.

For additional details regarding this theory see Ron's "What is "per-adjudication"?

http://www.imminfo.com/News/2012-10-...udication.html

Lets hope DOS and USCIS together enforce/implement strict rule of FIFO starting this year...

[Spectator]

Spec. What is IBIS check? and what is the general expiry period?. If this takes time, then even general non porting EB2 2006/2007 PD guys are at disadvantage compared to latest filed 2008 Pd guys who may not need IBIS check (only if I know what is IBIS?)

bvsamrat,

I b) In both cases, the IBIS check will probably have expired and need to be requested again.

IBIS (Interagency Border Inspection System) is part of the background check.

Originally it was only valid for 35 days. Subsequently it was extended to 90 days and now appears to be 180 days.

From the AFM (section 10.3)

(b) IBIS Checks .


The Interagency Border Inspection System (IBIS) is a multi-agency effort to improve border enforcement and facilitate inspections of applicants for admission into the United States. Its usage was recently expanded to include background investigations on persons seeking immigration benefits. A complete IBIS query also includes a concurrent check of the NCIC Hot Files. An approved NCIC check queries the following databases:


· Wants and Warrants;


· Missing Persons;


· Violent Gang and Terrorists;


· Protection Order File;


· Registered Sexual Offender;


· Secret Service Presidential Protection;


· Foreign Fugitives;


· Deported Felons; and


· Supervised Release File.


At this time, NCIC III checks are not permitted by the FBI in the benefits arena.


IBIS queries are conducted to assist law enforcement agencies to identify risks to the community and/or to national security and to prevent ineligible aliens from obtaining immigration benefits. Employees working with benefit applications in application support centers, asylum offices, district offices, and service centers, who have the required security clearances for the Interagency Border Inspection System (IBIS), and who have been trained and certified, currently conduct IBIS queries as part of the adj udication process. More specific procedural information on IBIS queries is contained in the Immigration Services Division (ISD) IBIS SOP, which is located in Appendix 10-6 of this field manual.


Note 1
Under no circumstances shall classified information or other restricted information be divulged to the applicant, petitioner, or any other unauthorized party (see Chapter 10.19 of this field manual).

Note 2
IBIS records that are not owned by USCIS are covered by the third agency rule. See Chapter 10.12(b)(4) of this field manual. IBIS records should not be disclosed to individuals without proper legal authorization.

(1) General requirements .


Except as provided in paragraph (b)(2), an application or petition shall not be approved or revalidated until the name (to include aliases) of the petitioner, applicant, beneficiary, and the names of any spouse and children who will derive an immediate benefit through their relationship (without filing a separate application) have been checked against IBIS, in accordance with the procedures set forth in Appendix 10-6 of this field manual. If such a check reveals the existence of relating files, or other information, they shall be obtained and considered before making a determination upon the application or petition.


An IBIS query on a new application/petition must be run within 15 calendar days of initial receipt. In addition to the initial query, an IBIS query must be conducted at any of the following times, if evidence of the IBIS query indicates it is no longer current (i.e. more than 180 days old):


· At the time of decision;

In general, since dates have been retrogressed for so long, all IBIS checks will have expired for I-485 submitted last year unless USCIS have been proactively renewing them (as if!).

[gc_soon]

Spec,
Any idea on Consular processing?
Once the date becomes current, are CP cases at disadvantage compared to AOS cases? (since interview dates availability at consulate becomes a factor to consider).
Also does NVC schedule interviews based on PD?

[Spectator]

Spec,

Could you please elaborate the above statement with respect to non-porters who filed their I-485 ? Do we get our visa number via IVAMS once we are current? My guess is the spill-over allocation is paper based.

I think visa number allocation after pre-adjudication will go strictly by priority date. What is your take?

Kanmani,

When a case is pre-adjudicated, a request is made via IVAMS for a visa allocation. If it cannot be granted immediately (because the PD is not Current), the information on Country, Category PD and A number is held in a pending file which we see as the Demand Data.

When the Cut Off Date moves, the IVAMS system automatically generates a list of cases that have become Current and sends that to USCIS. It is then up to USCIS to close out those cases and confirm the visa allocation.

Currently, a large number of interfiling cases will be in addition to these numbers, since their PD under EB2 has not yet been Current and the conversion to EB2 has not taken place.

If the Cut Off Date moves a lot, I am cynical enough to believe that the IO will choose the "low hanging fruit" rather than process strictly by PD. If the PD is Current, all cases are equally eligible to be approved and the IO performance is largely determined by how how many cases are closed out. Under those circumstances, they are going to choose the easy cases to boost their statistics.

[Kanmani]

Thanks Spec. Looks like luck plays a prominent role, which is bad for non-lhfruits.

[qesehmk]

technically yes ... but given that the EB3 case also might be pre-adjudicated, I would imagine it shouldn't be such a big deal. Basically they will approve the EB3 application - not the EB3. And the basis for visa allocation is going to be EB2. Right? So although technically they might say it adds 30-90 days delay - I think that is the worst case scenario - not average case. Average case it should be 30 days or less (just like any other currrent EB2 date with a preadjudicated 485).

Thanks and clear. What i guess is that:
Once current, interfiling process/approval/adjudicating process makes a delay of about 30 days to 90 days, which gives advantage to already adjudicated cases with same PD and these ported cases may get added to next years demand

[SeekingGC2013]

Hey All

Can you please explain the rationale for the below analysis? How come when 1 & 3 are happening X is at advantage and when 2 &4 are happening B is at advantage?

Also if dates are moved progressively? what are the chances are Eb3-Eb2 porters could influence the dates not to be moved to expected cut-off dates as analyzed by GURUS os 1st page? Is it likely that due to the progression and build up off porter applications dates might end up in Dec 2006 or Dec 2007?

thanks for all the hardwork and feedback you provide - words are not enough to appreciate the effort you put in.

Excellent Point Vizcard. I think i understood it for the most part. Can you confirm my below understanding based on the below examples?

(1) Mr X, 'EB3-Eb2 porter' having a PD in 2006 and becoming current in 'May visa bulletin'
(2) Mr Y, 'EB3-Eb2 porter' having a PD in 2006 and becoming current in 'August visa bulletin'
(3) Mr A, 'EB2 person (no porting)' having PD of Oct-2008 and becoming current in 'May visa bulletin'
(4) Mr B, 'EB2 person (no porting)' having PD of Oct-2008 and becoming current in 'August visa bulletin'

Assuming (1) and (3) happens then its advantage for Mr X, Similarly if (2) and (4) happens then its advantage for Mr B. Correct?

Let me know if someone can explain what exactly happens once the dates become current (for a porter vs a regular guy).

[vizcard]

IBIS (Interagency Border Inspection System) is part of the background check.

Originally it was only valid for 35 days. Subsequently it was extended to 90 days and now appears to be 180 days.

From the AFM (section 10.3)


In general, since dates have been retrogressed for so long, all IBIS checks will have expired for I-485 submitted last year unless USCIS have been proactively renewing them (as if!).

Wouldnt this also apply to Medicals? IIRC they are valid for a year.

[Kanmani]

Technically Medicals are valid for one year only, but USCIS extends the validity of the already submitted medicals every year by issuing an memorandum (internally).

Unless we receive a notice for submission of updated medical report, the one we submitted along with I-485 is valid . The following memo authorises the validation of Form I693 until September 30, 2013.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Laws/Memo...inal122012.pdf

[Spectator]

Wouldnt this also apply to Medicals? IIRC they are valid for a year.

Technically Medicals are valid for one year only, but USCIS extends the validity of the already submitted medicals every year by issuing an memorandum (internally).

Unless we receive a notice for submission of updated medical report, the one we submitted along with I-485 is valid .

vizcard,

Here's a link to the latest Memo which covers all adjudications in FY2013.

It also says:

USCIS anticipates that it will issue a new policy in regards to the sufficiency of Form I-693 endorsements for FY 2014. USCIS is currently working with CDC on developing the new policy.

[vizcard]

vizcard,

Here's a link to the latest Memo which covers all adjudications in FY2013.

It also says:

Thanks. This helps.

[bvsamrat]

When does interfiling happen? Does a porter has to interfile once again if when his PD gets current
The trackitt reply states that interfiling is done at time of I-140 itself. If so, all are treated on par and I do not know why these cases are not added to demand(atleast the interfilers who filed I-140 months back)

Interfiling process as per Trackitt Forum

""I had enough discussion with lawyer for interfiling related matter. According to them, we request porting and interfiling at time of filing 140 (via letter/colored papers etc). Then 1st indication that CIS have seen our request is when they approve 140 with OLDPD. Then interfiling should happen automatically internally within CIS. But effect of interfiling does not get reflected right away, specially when PD is not current. But lawyer office told me that they are going to confirm this aggressively when PD become current.

I kind of agree with what i been told because this is what happened to my friend. His PD was 2003EB3. Filed 140EB2 in Aug2012, That got approved in Dec12. His OLDPD becomes current from October VB in 2012. So within 3 weeks of his 140EB2 approval, his GC got approved in Jan13 and got his card in last week of Jan13"".

bvsamrat,

I have been thinking about this too.

I am not sure one case has any advantage over another. Possibly, the porting I-485 has a slightly higher chance of an RFE.

a) Both cases will probably have to be recalled from storage.

b) In both cases, the IBIS check will probably have expired and need to be requested again.

c) Both have a pre-adjudicated I-485 (at least up to July 2007). The only difference is the interfiling (requesting a visa under EB2), which doesn't involve any extra adjudication of the I-485.

d) Requesting a new visa number in IVAMS is instantaneous if Current and takes no more time than using IVAMS to use a visa allocated at the time of pre-adjudication.

In our hearts, we all know USCIS will just pick the "low hanging fruit".

I think it will be luck of the draw and depend on which case lands on the IO desk first. If dates move forward too fast, we will see a repeat of last year, where late PD are approved and earlier PD miss out.

[edisonguy]

With 19K spillover, how far the dates would move into 2009 as per the prediction in page#1.

[zenmaster]

With 19K spillover, how far the dates would move into 2009 as per the prediction in page#1.

I feel 2009'ers should pin their hopes for next year rather than this year.
Even if DOS moves dates into 2009, they will do so to pick low hanging fruits - as Gurus have mentioned above, and it is pure speculation until what date in 2009 they will move, if at all.

[Spectator]

When does interfiling happen? Does a porter has to interfile once again if when his PD gets current

bvsamrat,

My understanding is that there are 2 separate processes for what people loosely refer to as "interfiling".

a) Consolidation of the A-file with all the information to show the person is eligible under EB2 when dates are Current. That can be done, even if the PD is not Current. Possibly an IBIS check is initiated at this point, if needed (I don't know).

b) Conversion of the underlying basis of the I-485 from EB3 to EB2 and a visa request under EB2. The AFM says this can only happen when the PD is Current for the new basis (EB2). So no request for a visa number under EB2 can be made until the PD becomes Current again. That makes perfect sense, since there is no situation where you could submit a new I-485 when the dates are not Current.

The last time most cases would have been Current was in May 2012, when the COD was 15AUG07. In theory, any cases that have become ready to "interfile" in the nearly 9 months since that time can not form part of the Demand Data, since no visa can be requested under EB2.

I would have expected the Demand Data for EB2-I 2003 - 2006 to have risen fairly considerably had porting cases been included. It hasn't. The oddity is that EB3 demand has dropped and I don't know how to reconcile that fact.

[vizcard]

With 19K spillover, how far the dates would move into 2009 as per the prediction in page#1.

I feel 2009'ers should pin their hopes for next year rather than this year.
Even if DOS moves dates into 2009, they will do so to pick low hanging fruits - as Gurus have mentioned above, and it is pure speculation until what date in 2009 they will move, if at all.

Assuming CO doesn't repeat last year's reckless forward movement AND without CIR, I will be shocked if we go beyond Jan 1, 2009. Ofcourse with CIR, all bets are off.

PS: There is a separate thread for CIR, so DO NOT discuss any CIR bills or potential bills in this thread.

[qesehmk]

That should be around Feb 2009 assuming 21K normal SOFAD + 19K FB spillover. Now - if we assume 75% of that becomes reality - that still means Sep 2008. So all in all 2013 is going to be a good year.

With 19K spillover, how far the dates would move into 2009 as per the prediction in page#1.

[YTeleven]

My understanding is that the current USCIS systems are SMART enough to identify the oldest PD of the person and attach it to the latest 140 filed. This was mentioned in one of USCIS memos also. They also mentioned that the adjudication process also works according to the oldest PD. If this is true then you no need to have interfiling request and possibly even the porting request, all you need is to file the new 140 based on new EB2 labour and sytem will take care of the adjudication process based on the oldest PD associated to your file.

When does interfiling happen? Does a porter has to interfile once again if when his PD gets current
The trackitt reply states that interfiling is done at time of I-140 itself. If so, all are treated on par and I do not know why these cases are not added to demand(atleast the interfilers who filed I-140 months back)

Interfiling process as per Trackitt Forum

""I had enough discussion with lawyer for interfiling related matter. According to them, we request porting and interfiling at time of filing 140 (via letter/colored papers etc). Then 1st indication that CIS have seen our request is when they approve 140 with OLDPD. Then interfiling should happen automatically internally within CIS. But effect of interfiling does not get reflected right away, specially when PD is not current. But lawyer office told me that they are going to confirm this aggressively when PD become current.

I kind of agree with what i been told because this is what happened to my friend. His PD was 2003EB3. Filed 140EB2 in Aug2012, That got approved in Dec12. His OLDPD becomes current from October VB in 2012. So within 3 weeks of his 140EB2 approval, his GC got approved in Jan13 and got his card in last week of Jan13"".

[gtyagi]

Hi Gurus,

This is my first post here. First of all, I would like to say that I have been following this forum for about a month now and it has been a great experience, reading different views and this process really makes sense to me now. Thanks for providing this knowledge to the community.

Question:

My old PD is EB2 April 2008. Labor filed Jan 2013 and pending. I am assuming labor approval (if no RFE) sometime in April 2013.
I was wondering when this year my date can become current? Should I be applying I-140 and I-485 concurrently? Should I be ready with all the documents? What documents can I be ready with to expedite the process?
I am planning on I-140 premium processing. Hoping that will be approved in 30 - 40 days. While I-140 is still pending, and dates become current, I can apply for I-485. Correct?

[Pedro Gonzales]

Hi Gurus,

This is my first post here. First of all, I would like to say that I have been following this forum for about a month now and it has been a great experience, reading different views and this process really makes sense to me now. Thanks for providing this knowledge to the community.

Question:

My old PD is EB2 April 2008. Labor filed Jan 2013 and pending. I am assuming labor approval (if no RFE) sometime in April 2013.
I was wondering when this year my date can become current? Should I be applying I-140 and I-485 concurrently? Should I be ready with all the documents? What documents can I be ready with to expedite the process?
I am planning on I-140 premium processing. Hoping that will be approved in 30 - 40 days. While I-140 is still pending, and dates become current, I can apply for I-485. Correct?

With an April 2008 PD, since you don't appear to have applied for your I485 in Jan 2012, I take it your original application was in EB3?

Your PD will likely become current anytime between June and September 2013. It's hard to say exactly when. You can file your I140 and I485 concurrently only if the dates are current. If they aren't and aren't likely to be (at any point you will have between 20 and 50 days of visibility) you would be better off filing the I140 via premium processing while keeping your I485 application ready.

The I140 application is really your employer's application, although it will require some information on your part. Ask your lawyer for what exactly they need that they don't already have (I had to provide my resume, details of all entries and exits from the US, employment confirmation from all my prior employers, etc, although I think a lot of it was overkill).

For the I485 application, check out this thread for information on what you will need: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...=1273#post1273

If I were you, I'd also find the civil surgeon now and book an appointment for the 15th of the next month, and start to gather my vaccination records. If the dates don't move forward sufficiently for any particular VB, push the appointment out to the next month.

[gtyagi]

Thanks Pedro. It is really helpful. My PD April 2008 was for EB2. The delay in PERM filing from my new employer brought me to this situation. Murthy is filing for it. So, if labor gets approved in April 2013, I may still have some time to do the I-140 in premium processing and wait for dates to get current in June - September. If I-140 is pending, can I still file for I-485 as soon as dates become current?
Any specific documents for my spouse for I-485?
I also had some unauthorized employment. At what time I will have to file 245K? I have entered US legally after that mishap.
Response is greatly appreciated.
Thanks

[helooo]

That should be around Feb 2009 assuming 21K normal SOFAD + 19K FB spillover. Now - if we assume 75% of that becomes reality - that still means Sep 2008. So all in all 2013 is going to be a good year.

So,the SOFAD will only apply in June 2013 or it can be in earlier also?

[vizcard]

So,the SOFAD will only apply in June 2013 or it can be in earlier also?

theoretically CO could start to use some in the next VB. Realistically though it will be in the July or Aug VB