EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[redsox2009]

I see fewer 485 applications being approved on Trackitt for ROW's, is it is a sign of quarterly exhaustion of the Visa numbers or the number in general is very low?

also the perm numbers are also low compared to previous months.

If the applications are low can we expect the EB-2 I movement in near future, say in a month or less?

[ChampU]

After a long time, I looked at the "Trackitt Greencard Prediction".. The number of EB2-I applicants ahead of me (PD - 02/2008) changed from roughly 10k to 7k to 8k as per the data taken in Jan 2012, May 2012 and Oct. 2012 respectively. Now the numbers falling between Jan-May 2012 would be the applicants who were approved while the dates were current and the numbers rising after May would be the porting cases.

Since the rise is roughly 1k and assuming that 70% of applicants on Trackitt are from India, it means that

A. Not many folks update their profiles to reflect the porting.
B. Porting is not that high.

Just a thought..

[Spectator]

I see fewer 485 applications being approved on Trackitt for ROW's, is it is a sign of quarterly exhaustion of the Visa numbers or the number in general is very low?

also the perm numbers are also low compared to previous months.

If the applications are low can we expect the EB-2 I movement in near future, say in a month or less?

redsox2009,

I have noticed that too.

January is the first month of Q2 so I don't think it is quarterly exhaustion as such.

Approvals for all Categories, not just EB2-WW, have been very slow so far in January. Maybe the IOs have taken an extended vacation.

Regarding EB2-WW, it does seem likely they will slow for a period, followed by another period of rapid approvals before settling down.

Beginning October, USCIS had a backlog of cases submitted up to June 2012 that they had not been able to approve due to retrogression. The majority of these didn't become Current until November.

At the same time, virtually no EB2-WW could submit a new I-485 application until the dates became Current again in November, so USCIS likely received a large number of new applications from November onwards. They aren't likely to be ready to adjudicate in large numbers until the end of January or February. So if USCIS clear the backlog quickly, EB2-WW could be quiet for a period. It doesn't actually mean there are low numbers that will be approved.

Currently, according to Trackitt, there are as many EB2-WW pending as have been approved. Around a third of cases submitted in June 2012 remain to be adjudicated and 50% of the total pending cases have been submitted since the FY began. Of those, about 70% were submitted in November.

I don't follow Trackitt PERM cases, so I can't comment on those.

I'm not convinced that low EB2-WW approvals now will necessarily lead to any release of extra visas to EB2-I in the next month or so.

[zenmaster]

Visa Bulletin Feb 2013

No Change for EB2I
EB2C goes to 15JAN2008

[isantem]

. If EB3-I gets even 4-5K spillover as demand cliff hits the EB3-ROW, that will be a great news for EB2-I as the porting intensity will reduce drastically.

The people how are porting are from PD 2005 an up. 4-5k spillover will get EB3I just in early 2003. So I am not sure what you mean by drastically?

[isantem]

"this subplot has a little HR 3012 revenge feel to it"

So is still the Indian comunnity owns revenge to ROW???? I would say maybe ROW need to do something in revenge...but we are much smarter.

[qesehmk]

Sport - the dates are not moving because even if there is 3K porting prior to where the dates are - that is enough to stall the forward movement. But rest assured that the dates will move beyond 2007 into 2008 for EB2I come Q4 of 2013 of USCIS year.

I haven't done any number crunching, and I am just flabbergasted as the next guy wondering why EB2-I is not moving even a week.

1. It's at least good to see EB2-C racing ahead. By this FY end, EB2-C will easily get into later half of 2008 without any spillover. This means EB2-I can expect all of the spillover this year - whatever it may be.

2. Keep an eye on the EB3-ROW date. It is still not moving aggressively enough for adjudication of enough applications before the end of FY. to fill their quota. I believe we will see a situation where EB3-I gets some spillover because not enough EB3-ROW applications are adjudicated (this subplot has a little HR 3012 revenge feel to it). If EB3-I gets even 4-5K spillover as demand cliff hits the EB3-ROW, that will be a great news for EB2-I as the porting intensity will reduce drastically. In the absence of any event for EB2-I, that's one date I will watch closely.

[SmileBaba]

Hi Q! No offense.. but I'll appreciate if you can share your numbers and facts backing up your prediction of Eb2I reaching beyond 2007 this fiscal year.

Sport - the dates are not moving because even if there is 3K porting prior to where the dates are - that is enough to stall the forward movement. But rest assured that the dates will move beyond 2007 into 2008 for EB2I come Q4 of 2013 of USCIS year.

[qesehmk]

smilebaba no offense at all. Will update header tomorrow.

Hi Q! No offense.. but I'll appreciate if you can share your numbers and facts backing up your prediction of Eb2I reaching beyond 2007 this fiscal year.

[yank]

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

[bvsamrat]

Question: Can porter from EB3 refile for I-485 in EB2 if the PD is not current for EB2?
(though he might have pending I-485 in EB3 from 2007 fiasco)

If the he can not, it is clear that CO may be creating block for porters by not raising the PD for EB2-I and 4-5 months window is small enough for porters and current EB2-WW to prevent sneak through and then create a healthy predictable spill over to EB2-I/C in coming month(April-May?)


[QUOTE=Spectator;32337]Caramail,
Personally, I hope CO does start quicker advancement sooner rather than later, at least moving to August 1, 2007 to gather the many people who had PERM Certified too late to file in July 2007.

[GhostWriter]

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

Thanks Yank.

A total increase of 900 cases vs. January demand data. 2009 and 2010 should be newly pre-adjudicated cases. 2008 demand data of 16,500 is higher than the 15,897 number from the Oct-2012 inventory and still increasing, same for 2007. Don't know what is going on there.

Monthly increase by PD
2004 ---- 0
2005 ---- 50
2006 ---- 50
2007 ---- 100
2008 ---- 175
2009 ---- 300
2010 ---- 225
Total ---- 900

[veni001]

Thanks Yank.

A total increase of 900 cases vs. January demand data. 2009 and 2010 should be newly pre-adjudicated cases. 2008 demand data of 16,500 is higher than the 15,897 number from the Oct-2012 inventory and still increasing, same for 2007. Don't know what is going on there.

Monthly increase by PD
2004 ---- 0
2005 ---- 50
2006 ---- 50
2007 ---- 100
2008 ---- 175
2009 ---- 300
2010 ---- 225
Total ---- 900

Increase should be coming from CP cases.

[Spectator]

I've moved the EB3-ROW discussion here.

[GhostWriter]

Increase should be coming from CP cases.

Yes, the extra number should be the CP cases. Thanks Veni.

[GCKnowHow]

Sport - the dates are not moving because even if there is 3K porting prior to where the dates are - that is enough to stall the forward movement. But rest assured that the dates will move beyond 2007 into 2008 for EB2I come Q4 of 2013 of USCIS year.

My hopes are very thin on this. By the time there would be some movement then the rest of porting would consume any visa#, i mean the porting with pd from 2004 to 2007.

[GCKnowHow]

Demand is increasing... Guess they be pure porting?

Below is demand difference between Dec and Jan demand data.

Cumulative.......All Other
Demand Prior To..Countries....China....India....Grand Total
1-Jan-05..............0...........0.......50............ .50
1-Jan-06..............0...........0......150............ 150
1-Jan-07..............0...........0......250............ 250
1-Jan-08............-25........-550......650.............75
1-Jan-09..............0........-425.....1175............750
1-Jan-10..............0........-275.....1850...........1575
1-Jan-12.............25........-200.....2400...........2225

[abcx13]

Question: Can porter from EB3 refile for I-485 in EB2 if the PD is not current for EB2?
(though he might have pending I-485 in EB3 from 2007 fiasco)

If the he can not, it is clear that CO may be creating block for porters by not raising the PD for EB2-I and 4-5 months window is small enough for porters and current EB2-WW to prevent sneak through and then create a healthy predictable spill over to EB2-I/C in coming month(April-May?)

I don't believe that will stop the porters forever. Maybe it will delay their I485 filing temporarily but once the dates move for EB2-I, porters can file too...

[bvsamrat]

This delay will enable to streamline the normal PDs and then again retrogress in August/September. Any porters who apply in the open window are subject to normal processing times(say 3 months) and hence will be added to demand in next cycle

Does this sound logical?

I don't believe that will stop the porters forever. Maybe it will delay their I485 filing temporarily but once the dates move for EB2-I, porters can file too...

[bee369]

Hi guys, need help regarding my H1B extension , my h1b extension was applied in nov 2012 and I had to travel to India in December before it approved. I came back to USA and then I got another I94 but my H1b extension was applied with old I94, now I got RFE for client letter, do I need to submit my i94 which I got at entry to USA again ? While applying RFE can I resubmit my new I94 ? Your response would be appreciated, thanks for help.

[Kanmani]

Hi guys, need help regarding my H1B extension , my h1b extension was applied in nov 2012 and I had to travel to India in December before it approved. I came back to USA and then I got another I94 but my H1b extension was applied with old I94, now I got RFE for client letter, do I need to submit my i94 which I got at entry to USA again ? While applying RFE can I resubmit my new I94 ? Your response would be appreciated, thanks for help.

Just send what is asked for in the RFE. No need to submit those extra documents .

[gs1968]

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/13/us....html?hp&_r=1&

This looks encouraging but how far it will go is unclear

[sbhagwat2000]

Can we get an idea of porting and how many EB2s have been approved for the first quarter by comparing the difference between EB3 DD from oct to Current? So if USCIS has been diligent in removing the EB2 approved cases from the EB3 Queue then those extra approvals must be EB2 I. I did a quick comparison between the DD released in October for the Nov bulletin and the current DD. I see a difference between EB3 numbers of 1550. 750 would be the normal EB3 approvals and hence EB2 I approvals for the last quarter would be ~ 750-800. Thoughts?

[YTeleven]

Can we get an idea of porting and how many EB2s have been approved for the first quarter by comparing the difference between EB3 DD from oct to Current? So if USCIS has been diligent in removing the EB2 approved cases from the EB3 Queue then those extra approvals must be EB2 I. I did a quick comparison between the DD released in October for the Nov bulletin and the current DD. I see a difference between EB3 numbers of 1550. 750 would be the normal EB3 approvals and hence EB2 I approvals for the last quarter would be ~ 750-800. Thoughts?

If I assume the 233/month is the visa quota allocation for EB3I and EB2I each, then I can arrive at 223/month visa issuance to the porters(EB3I to EB2I) in this financial year so far. This is what is evident from the last 4 DDs published. This could be one reason which I think why we didn't see any movement for EB2I in last 4 VBs. On the other hand it is good that the rate is 223/mon so far which is not significant, but this rate might go up when spillover comes in effect and the cutoff dates advance in future.

[sbhagwat2000]

If I assume the 233/month is the visa quota allocation for EB3I and EB2I each, then I can arrive at 223/month visa issuance to the porters(EB3I to EB2I) in this financial year so far. This is what is evident from the last 4 DDs published. This could be one reason which I think why we didn't see any movement for EB2I in last 4 VBs. On the other hand it is good that the rate is 223/mon so far which is not significant, but this rate might go up when spillover comes in effect and the cutoff dates advance in future.

I compared each DD and it seems that in October they approved 400 for EB2 I and then ~ 180 each nov and dec