EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[vizcard]

its almost certain, by Oct 2013, EB2 moves to Jun 1,2008.
this year CTS is not filing for GC aggressively , last year it filed 2000 perms/ this year sofor 100+

Not sure how you arrived at that conclusion. It looks we need 9.5k to clear 2007 and possibly more for additional porting. 2008 demand density appears to be over 1.5k per month. To get to June end we would need atleast an addln 9k visas. That appears to be a long shot.

I'm not saying you are wrong but just curious about your assumptions.

[sbhagwat2000]

Looking at the latest DD and few things confuse me. May be the gurus can shed some light.

1. how is it that the number of 2007 and 2008 EB2 I numbers are greater than the ones in the inventory. Does this mean that USCIS is so inefficient that they have not yet added all applications to their inventory. that really is bad as they had dates U for 4 months.

2. For Eb2 I - If you look at the inventory there are 219 apps between sept 1 2004 and Jan 1 2005. So the demand before sept 1 2004 looks to be around 50. Is that right ? if thats correct date should move atleast by some months.

Am I saying anything thats incorrect

[Spectator]

Suggestions inline.

Looking at the latest DD and few things confuse me. May be the gurus can shed some light.

1. how is it that the number of 2007 and 2008 EB2 I numbers are greater than the ones in the inventory. Does this mean that USCIS is so inefficient that they have not yet added all applications to their inventory. that really is bad as they had dates U for 4 months.

The Demand Data also includes CP cases, whereas the Inventory only contains AOS cases. Even though EB2-I has very little CP, that can still be a few hundred per PD year. I don't think it is anything to worry about.

2. For Eb2 I - If you look at the inventory there are 219 apps between sept 1 2004 and Jan 1 2005. So the demand before sept 1 2004 looks to be around 50. Is that right ? if thats correct date should move atleast by some months.

Since dates before September 2004 are Current, there should be no cases for these dates shown in the Demand Data, as they can be approved immediately. A few for CP could be shown where the interview has not yet taken place.

The number shown therefore relates almost entirely to cases with a PD of Sep 1, 2004 to Dec 31, 2004.

But that is currently a static number, consisting of cases submitted before the Cut Off Dates retrogressed, since Cut Off Dates have not passed Sept 1, 2004 since May 2012.

The 222 number shown in the Inventory for Sep-Dec 2004 PD is a good fit for the 225-275 that has been showing in the Demand Data for cases prior to 2005. The difference could be error, or a few CP cases, some of which could be prior to Sept 2004.

There are now (or will be) 8 months (June 2012 - Jan 2013) where no porting cases beyond the current Cut Off Date of Sep 1, 2012 can undergo final conversion by USCIS and show as an EB2 case in either the Inventory or Demand Data. They are essentially invisible.

IMO, they will only become apparent (as approvals) when the Cut Off Dates move forward.

Am I saying anything thats incorrect

[yank]

Q/Spec,

Why porting is in so much limelight that it has stalled the forward movement of EB2 I? Porting is happening from the past 3-4 yrs and you had earlier mentioned it's range is in 5-6K per yr.

Would also appreciate if you can share your thoughts on latest DD.

[sbhagwat2000]

Suggestions inline.

Thanks for your reply. If it should be 0 before sept 2004 then for ROW it should be 0 since its current right? why are they showing demand. does that mean they are going to have a cutoff? also demand will not be 0 right - if an interlinking for pre sept 2004 app is done on say nov 20th then I think it takes about 1-2 months for USCIS to close the case. So that demand will be reflected right?

[Spectator]

Q/Spec,

Why porting is in so much limelight that it has stalled the forward movement of EB2 I? Porting is happening from the past 3-4 yrs and you had earlier mentioned it's range is in 5-6K per yr.

Would also appreciate if you can share your thoughts on latest DD.

yank,

I think that is because, with much lower Spillover expected, Porting numbers potentially represent a much higher % of the likely available visas. They therefore have a much greater potential impact on Cut Off Date movement for the FY. In addition, there doesn't appear to be any QSP this year.

The last time that happened (FY2011), EB2-I Cut Off Dates did not move in the first 8 months of the FY

With no figures ever published, it is impossible to say whether the number is decreasing, fairly static or increasing relative to past years.

I think I have already commented on the DD.

[Spectator]

Thanks for your reply. If it should be 0 before sept 2004 then for ROW it should be 0 since its current right? why are they showing demand. does that mean they are going to have a cutoff? also demand will not be 0 right - if an interlinking for pre sept 2004 app is done on say nov 20th then I think it takes about 1-2 months for USCIS to close the case. So that demand will be reflected right?

sbhagwat2000,

For CP cases, the visas are allocated based on requests from Consulates before the interview takes place.

Countries other than China an India only show a total demand of 175 visas, which is entirely consistent with CP cases awaiting interview.

[gkjppp]

Not sure how you arrived at that conclusion. It looks we need 9.5k to clear 2007 and possibly more for additional porting. 2008 demand density appears to be over 1.5k per month. To get to June end we would need atleast an addln 9k visas. That appears to be a long shot.

I'm not saying you are wrong but just curious about your assumptions.

As you said, you need 18K visas to achieve this date,with present trend you may get 8K spillover from EB1+2k regular EB2I (assume 800 were already used this year)
EB2 ROW +EB4 spillover=5k. So overall you may get close to 15k visas to EB2I, which pushes dates somewhere between Mar to Jun 1,2008.

[justvisiting]

The demand data shows why EB3-P is stuck. And why EB3-C is close to catching up with ROW. Frankly they should be cobbled together. Not sure why they haven't moved the EB3-ROW/C to 2008.

[Spectator]

The demand data shows why EB3-P is stuck. And why EB3-C is close to catching up with ROW. Frankly they should be cobbled together. Not sure why they haven't moved the EB3-ROW/C to 2008.

justvisiting,

I've been thinking about when CO might move the EB3 dates as well.

Compared to EB2-IC, I think it is a much more difficult task.

EB2-IC had 98-99% AOS cases, so the effect of CP cases was negligible. That's not the case with EB3. In FY2011, ROW had around 20% CP and China had a whopping, 51%.

Whereas it might take 3-6 months for new I-485 cases to be ready to adjudicate, a CP case can be approved in 1-2 months. Ron Gotcher says that the interview in a CP case normally takes place in the month following the PD becoming Current.

If CO moves the dates forward rapidly, then a large number of late PDs with CP will be approved at the expense of earlier AOS PDs.

So maybe he has to move the dates fairly cautiously over a few months initially, just enough to ensure that the full FY allocation is used and allowing sufficient time for the AOS cases to be adjudicated. He could then make a very large movement (to get a good future Inventory) in September, before retrogressing in October.

It appears that the present backlog for China, Mexico and ROW will be exhausted in about May/June/July, so he will have to think about moving the dates. I don't think he can leave it any later than about March/April at the latest, if he wants AOS cases ready for approval beyond July. It could well be (and need to be) somewhat earlier than that.

The next few Demand Data and VB will answer the question.

[Caramail]

So could you please tell when I could expect to file my I-485? EB3 ROW PD July 15 2007. Is April 2013 a realistic date? I missed the July boat.
Thanks!

[Spectator]

So could you please tell when I could expect to file my I-485? EB3 ROW PD July 15 2007. Is April 2013 a realistic date? I missed the July boat.
Thanks!

Caramail,

Welcome to the forum.

I don't pretend to have a good handle on how EB3-ROW will move, but I would be disappointed if your PD had not become Current by the April VB.

[Caramail]

Thank you!!! I feel like I am really close now after waiting for so long.

[Spectator]

Thank you!!! I feel like I am really close now after waiting for so long.

Caramail,

I'm sure.

Good luck!

If it follows the same pattern as EB2 China and India, then there are quite a few people with May 2007 onwards PDs who were unable to apply for I-485 in July 2007 because the Labor Certification was not received in time.

Let the forum know when you have finally submitted your I-485.

[Caramail]

Thanks and I will.

[mayde78]

Some good analysis... I am fairly new to this whole analysis... I have an EB2-I PD of Sept 12, 2007. Any insight into when I can expect it to be current?

[vizcard]

Some good analysis... I am fairly new to this whole analysis... I have an EB2-I PD of Sept 12, 2007. Any insight into when I can expect it to be current?

Aug 2013 at the latest

[sbhagwat2000]

Spec,

I was looking at EB2 I approvals on trackitt and there seems to be a marked decrease in november and december as compared with october. October as you pointed out had 40 approvals. Nov had 10 and december is also trending the same.

Based on that can we assume that the initial bump that was caused because of the dates being U is now over and what we are seeing now is the regular demand we would see? Going forward if we see the same trends can we hope for some movement starting from the 3rd quarter.

[Spectator]

Spec,

I was looking at EB2 I approvals on trackitt and there seems to be a marked decrease in november and december as compared with october. October as you pointed out had 40 approvals. Nov had 10 and december is also trending the same.

Based on that can we assume that the initial bump that was caused because of the dates being U is now over and what we are seeing now is the regular demand we would see? Going forward if we see the same trends can we hope for some movement starting from the 3rd quarter.

It certainly appears that most of the pre September 2004 cases that built up when EB2-I was Unavailable have now been cleared.

I need a little longer to judge what the ongoing monthly rate is. Since the dates are not moving, it could be around the 250 available each month.

The potential problem is that, when the COD is able to move forward, there will be large numbers of Sept-Dec 2004, 2005 and 2006 porting cases that have built up in the meantime.

By the time the dates move, about a year's worth of these later PD porting cases will have built up, amounting to several thousand cases in all probability.

That is going to limit the forward movement, unless CO is very confident there are sufficient numbers available to EB2-I.

Given what happened last year (e.g. EB1 was very heavy late on), I don't see how he can be that confident when he initially moves the dates.

Since USCIS are not providing any information on potential porting numbers to DOS, I think CO will want to "test the waters" to see the numbers for himself.

[sbhagwat2000]

Spec,

I think that the demand could be lower than the 250 but the dates are no moving cause USCIS has approved more applications than the quarterly qouta cause of the dates being U and the flood of apps in Oct. Now I guess in the next quarter also they will not move the dates so that they remain within the qouta for 6 months. I think though they will have to move the dates at some point after April so as to as you say "test the waters" otherwise they will be accumulating demand for 2005 onwards. I think they will start moving the dates by 1-2 months post april for that reason.

[Spectator]

Spec,

I think that the demand could be lower than the 250 but the dates are no moving cause USCIS has approved more applications than the quarterly qouta cause of the dates being U and the flood of apps in Oct. Now I guess in the next quarter also they will not move the dates so that they remain within the qouta for 6 months. I think though they will have to move the dates at some point after April so as to as you say "test the waters" otherwise they will be accumulating demand for 2005 onwards. I think they will start moving the dates by 1-2 months post april for that reason.

I agree it is possible that monthly demand from pre Sept 2004 could be less than 250 / month for exactly the reasons you stated. Because of the high numbers of approvals in October, the numbers are "ahead of the curve".

That is why I want to wait until making a decision. There is a processing time for these cases and new cases may not yet be reflected. Also, the number approved appears to already be ahead of the notional 757 available in Q1.

[collhyd]

Team,
Based on December 2012 bulletin qesehmk, veni had updated the Predictions on the first page. Can you also once again provide revised predictions based on Jan Bulletin and demand data.
Also can your comment on your estimate of any ballpark figure on porting per month/per year will help forum.

[march272010]

I am on Company A holding my H1, Company B (i was never with this company) has sponsored Green Card on future employment on EB2 and my dates became current and got my EAD. Got RFE on 485 and company A mentioned to me no need to worry we have a position for you here itself and we already applied a GC PERM for you (with similar job title , duties , roles & responsiblities with updated prewailing wage determination) and new I140 was applied and the old EB2 date (Company B I40 Priority date Mar 2010) was ported in Aug 2012 (new company A I-140 was cleared) and the RFE was answered.


RFE content
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The petitioner on your form I-140 , filed on May 2010 is Company B located in state XX. However, on your form G-325 Biographic information form you stated you have been working with Company A from April 2009 to the present. Finally both your forms G-325 and Form I-485 show that you live in state YY.

Please address the discrepancy between employers and addresses and please also submit a currently dated letter from your intended permanent employer, describing your present job duties and position in the organization, your proffered position (if different from your current one), the date you began employement and the offered salary or wage. This letter should be in the original and signed by an executive or officer of the organization who is authorized to make or confirm an offer of permanent employment. The letter must also indicate whether the terms and conditions of your employment-based visa petition (or labor certification) continue to exist.
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My question is it possible if i invoke AC21 and goto Company C, Is it possible to join company C on EAD, what are the risks and challenges and what should be the job title, duties, roles and responsibilities. Can anyone have share their knowledge?

Please move it to appropriate thread.

[ashokapex]

I am new in this forum, but seeing very interesting analysis, would like to know what you said Mar to June 2008, my PD is june 2008 EB2, i got my I-485 , but wondering when i can expect GC.
what your analysis said, regarding to this.

[qesehmk]

March272010,

I am 90% confident that you couldve invoked AC21 and continued with Employer A AND even today you invoke AC21 and join C D E F.

The reason I am not 100% confident - is I am not 100% sure that AC21 applies in situation where you are NOT currently working for thesame employer that sponsored your GC. Somebody like Kanmani on this fourm might be able to better answer such question. You may want to ping Kanmani.

Good luck.

I am on Company A holding my H1, Company B (i was never with this company) has sponsored Green Card on future employment on EB2 and my dates became current and got my EAD. Got RFE on 485 and company A mentioned to me no need to worry we have a position for you here itself and we already applied a GC PERM for you (with similar job title , duties , roles & responsiblities with updated prewailing wage determination) and new I140 was applied and the old EB2 date (Company B I40 Priority date Mar 2010) was ported in Aug 2012 (new company A I-140 was cleared) and the RFE was answered.


RFE content
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The petitioner on your form I-140 , filed on May 2010 is Company B located in state XX. However, on your form G-325 Biographic information form you stated you have been working with Company A from April 2009 to the present. Finally both your forms G-325 and Form I-485 show that you live in state YY.

Please address the discrepancy between employers and addresses and please also submit a currently dated letter from your intended permanent employer, describing your present job duties and position in the organization, your proffered position (if different from your current one), the date you began employement and the offered salary or wage. This letter should be in the original and signed by an executive or officer of the organization who is authorized to make or confirm an offer of permanent employment. The letter must also indicate whether the terms and conditions of your employment-based visa petition (or labor certification) continue to exist.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My question is it possible if i invoke AC21 and goto Company C, Is it possible to join company C on EAD, what are the risks and challenges and what should be the job title, duties, roles and responsibilities. Can anyone have share their knowledge?

Please move it to appropriate thread.