Yank - EB2C is running on razor thin margin i.e. just around 3K i.e. their full year quota. IMHO they should club EB2C with EB2ROW. But that's another topic.
Assuming that doesn't happen - EB2I will certainly catch up with EB2C by Sep 2013. Absolutely yes.Originally Posted by yank
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
yank,
To reach mid September 2008 would need SOFAD of about 20k plus additional porting numbers.
I'll leave you to decide whether that is possible or not.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec,
If EB2I PD stays at Sept1 2004 till July/Aug2013(i believe if there is any spillover CO is not going to apply until then), if spillover is applied in last 2-3 months then porting effect would be minimal as it would take some time to complete interfiling process once dates are current, assuming that USCIS is not processing porting cases with PDs beyond Sep2004 who started porting(interfiling) after retrogression. This might have effect again in 2014 on EB2I PD movement we might see PD stalling similar to FY2013 in FY2014 until spill over starts.
So at this point i would not consider any cases other than cases included in USCIS Inventory & Demand Data that might be ready for approval once spill over starts in July/August. Porting(PD beyond Sept2004) will start showing up in DD only if CO chooses to apply SO earlier starting from April that way porting cases will have enough time to show up in DD(complete interfiling process).
EB2I:TSC, PD:05/28/2008, I-485 Applied:01/10/2012, 485-Receipt:01/16/2012, FP:02/17/2012, EAD/AP approval:03/08/2012, Received RFE:05/18/2012, RFE Replied:06/22/2012, RFE Status Update:07/12/2012, 485-Approval;?
openaccount,
I think that is a fair comment, although I suspect USCIS will have processed them to the point of requesting the visa, so there is not much overhead to sent the request to DOS.
Even if that is not the case, even at 250 cases a month, that is still c. 2k already approved, if spillover is not allocated to very late in the year.
As you say, even if they are not approved in FY2013, it only delays the pain until FY2014 and virtually guarantees a sharp retrogression in the Cut Off Dates again.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Considering that EB2ROW is current, CO can not club EB2C with EB2ROW until the accumulated queue in EB2C (folks with PD 2008 through 2012) are cleared. Only then will it make sense to combine them. Assuming EB2C will not receive any spillover because of EB2I catching everything, it might be a very very long time before EB2C becomes current and gets combined with EB2ROW. So I guess we are stuck with EB2I/C/ROW classification for some time.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
My vote is for #2.
BTW - we can now definitely put to rest any hope that there might be quarterly spillover. Now its a wait until June/July 2013 at least to get any appreciate forward movement in EB2I PD.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
Given the demand densities of EB2I and EB2C, the relatively low amount of spillover expected and high amount of porting in EB2I; I think EB2I and EB2C have permanently decoupled. EB2C PD > EB2I PD for the foreseeable future.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
Didn't everyone including DOS say there will be cutoff date for China for EB-5 Category and today we saw EB-5 as C.
Any thoughts?
All Form Types Performance Data (Fiscal Year 2012, 4th Qtr) Data as of September 30, 2012 is out
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...y2012_qtr4.pdf
redsox2009,
Yes, but later in the FY.
This is what the December VB said:
It appears likely that a cut-off date will need to be established for the China Employment Fifth preference category at some point during second half of fiscal year 2013.
Such action would be delayed as long as possible, since while number use may be excessive over a 1 to 5 month period, it could average out to an acceptable level over a longer (e.g., 4 to 9 month) period.
This would be the first time a cut-off date has been established in this category, which is why readers are being provided with the maximum amount of advance notice regarding the possibility.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
I think that can happen IFF (if and only if) overall EB5 is oversubscribed (not sure yet) & China is oversubscribed (probably yes). I haven't yet looked at EB5 data. But my hunch is that - that is not going to happen.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Q,
I believe it is more likely to happen than not. At the very least it will be a close run thing.
Last year, EB5 used 7,641 visa and the I-526 applications are now much higher.
Of those, China used 6,124 visas.
If EB5 looks like it will breach the allocation limit in FY2013, China MUST retrogress, since their initial allocation is ZERO (due to the provisions of the Chinese Student Protection Act).
The only question is, if overall, how close EB5 gets to the 9,940 limit.
Last FY, EB5 Receipts were more than 150% higher than the previous FY and Approvals were more than 200% higher than the previous FY. There is also a huge backlog (c. 5k) of I-526 cases.
Concurrent Filing is not allowed for EB5 - processing for Immigrant Status can only begin when the I-526 is approved. Last FY, 87.4% of EB5 cases were Consular Processed.
CO has already said that EB5 demand is currently running at 1k / month.
Here are the trends:Attachment 333
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
EB3-C has overcome EB3-P at speed faster than CO forecast even though inventory density is about the same. CP percentage drop to blame?
This graph shows the total I-140 and I-485 receipts and completions over the last 24 months. Based on the graphs the I-140 and I-485 filings are down, but the I-140 completions are high.
any analysis on this?
Attachment 332
One guess could be that EB2-WW retrogression decoupled I-485/I-140 filings that were concurrent before. Since they are current again, this should even out. Not clear what WW share of the graph is, but hopefully it indicates only moderate build-up of I-485 WW backlog and that it'll dissipate later, and the mystery of WW inconsistency between PERM and I-485 demands will resolve itself.
Kanmani,
Rather belated thanks for posting this.
IF all 144,951 EB visas available in FY2012 were issued, then the Consular Processed portion would be 13.9%.
That compares to an actual of 10.8% in FY2011.
Most of that increase can be attributed to EB5, where 87.4% are CP.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Not sure if this has been discussed already - Pending inventory is published with a date of Oct 2012.
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD
Few points that I observed:
1. For EB2I Difference between Latest Demand Data (Dec 2012) and Inventory (Oct 2012) is just 3000. Which I think is good sign since many people were worried that there could be lot of people who will appear in Inventory but not the Demand data.
2. There are 257 numbers for May 2010 - Not sure how that is possible since PD never went there. The best ever PD is 1st May 2010 so there should not be any applications for May 2010. (Also there is a reduction in the April 2010 - not sure how that is possible either).
3. I compared the inventory of Oct 2011 to Oct 2012. The difference in EB3I numbers is 4404. If we remove the regular 2800 allocation, it appears that the net reduction is about 1600. These are obviously porters. However what i do not understand is why are we over estimating the porting to be 5K and over? Am i missing something?
skpanda,
Some thoughts to consider.
I think it is very difficult to estimate porting.
The change in Inventory numbers is only the NET change and doesn't necessarily reflect the GROSS numbers.
Your calculation assumes that the Inventory is static and includes all cases that USCIS has.
It was quite noticeable with EB3-ROW that new cases were being added as they moved through PD2006.
The reduction of 1.6k can equally be :
0 additions minus 1.6k porting cases or
3.4k additions minus 5.0k porting cases
In each case, the net reduction is 1.6k. It is not possible to tell if either are true.
A slightly different example.
In FY2011, the EB3-I Demand Data reduced by 6.0k. EB3-I actually received 4.0k so the difference was 2.0k. In the PDs where approvals could be made, the demand only lowered by 3.6k, so there were at least 0.4k cases approved additional to the initial demand.
Looking at EB2-I, the demand reduced by 17.9k. EB2-I actually received 24.0k so the difference was 6.1k. The Cut Off Dates were static for 8 months in FY2011. Certainly some of the extra approvals are probably due to new cases submitted late in FY2011 and approved, but they would have to have been adjudicated very quickly.
It is a hard nut to crack.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Looks like if I-140 receipts are under 5K, then we can see aggresive date movement for EB-2 in second half.
Thanks Spec... makes sense!
Jan2013 Demand Data Updated
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf
EB2I:TSC, PD:05/28/2008, I-485 Applied:01/10/2012, 485-Receipt:01/16/2012, FP:02/17/2012, EAD/AP approval:03/08/2012, Received RFE:05/18/2012, RFE Replied:06/22/2012, RFE Status Update:07/12/2012, 485-Approval;?
Interesting numbers for 2007 & 2008 PDs there is quite a difference between DD(Jan2013) and USCIS Inventory(OCT 2012).
PD-------Jan 2103DD----Oct2012 USCIS INV-------Difference
2007---------5400-------------5142---------------------+258
2008--------16325-----------15897---------------------+428
Numbers are being added each month even though PDs with those dates are not current from June 2012. Looks like USCIS is processing porting cases filed after June2012 even though those PDs are not current so once I-140 is approved and USCIS is notified about Interfiling, if there is a 485 attached already then it is processed and added to EB2 DD irrespective of PD being current or not. I think this is what is going on at present with porting cases(ported after June2012) whose PDs are not current. If this is the case then by the time CO starts applying SO all porting cases should show up in DD.
EB2I:TSC, PD:05/28/2008, I-485 Applied:01/10/2012, 485-Receipt:01/16/2012, FP:02/17/2012, EAD/AP approval:03/08/2012, Received RFE:05/18/2012, RFE Replied:06/22/2012, RFE Status Update:07/12/2012, 485-Approval;?
its almost certain, by Oct 2013, EB2 moves to Jun 1,2008.
this year CTS is not filing for GC aggressively , last year it filed 2000 perms/ this year sofor 100+
TSC || PD: 15-03-2010 || RD: 05-Mar-2012 || ND: 07-Mar-2012 || FP sch/done : 16-Apr-2012 || EAD/AP: 20-Apr-2012|| GC:
I think that is just continued pre-adjudication of the EB2 cases that were submitted when the dates were last Current.
Otherwise, you would also expect to see substantial movement of the 2004 - 2006 figures as well. They are static (well movement of 50).
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
That might be true as people with EB3I PDs from Sept2007 have never filed a 485 in EB3. We will know more with future Inventory,DD reports if there is a substantial increase in numbers for PDs prior to Aug2007 then we will know if USCIS is processing porting cases or not for PDs which are not current.
EB2I:TSC, PD:05/28/2008, I-485 Applied:01/10/2012, 485-Receipt:01/16/2012, FP:02/17/2012, EAD/AP approval:03/08/2012, Received RFE:05/18/2012, RFE Replied:06/22/2012, RFE Status Update:07/12/2012, 485-Approval;?
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