EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[sbhagwat2000]

imdeng,

This may be the source of the information.

It was posted in last year's thread as well.

So is that not concerning?363 applications in a month

[chewbaca]

Friends,
I had asked this question a couple of months ago but seems like the expectations/estimates have changed since then. Could you please once again have a go at my question?

My EB2 PD is Jan 10 2008, any estimate/idea on when this could get current.

thanks again.

[sbhagwat2000]

Buckle up Dorothy, because it's gonna be a wild ride! OK, fun aside, you are fine. In all likelihood, you should be current with a couple of months, so hang in tight. The Gurus have already clarified that the dates are in 2004 because they are only allocating 233 cases to EB2-I each month, and it's going to continue at least until March. Even then, I think we should continue seeing 3 to 4 month advances each VB that would cover the pending porting cases during that period. I think your date should be current by Dec/Jan so you should plan accordingly.

Hey thanks for the reply. Lets see how it turns out. I had a question abt the interfiling cases from June - October. Would those be included in the DD that they released for the October/nov bulletins or they would be added now? So these are the cases where the dates were U, people have sent interfiling letters and those letters are not processed by USCIS as dates were U.

[kd2008]

Can Spec, Teddy and other please comment on the following?

What would be the EB3-ROW-M-P-C demand next summer should the floodgates open for them and the dates move forward?

total PERMS (rough eye-ball calculations)

2007 post -aug: 20K
2008 : 38K
2009 : 23K
2010 : 19K
2011 : 19K
2012 : 24K (estimated)

Total : 143K

Assuming 40% of it is EB3, then 0.4*143K = 57.2K
Assuming 2.25 applicants for each PERM, 2.25*57.2K = 128.7K

Wow! That is a lot of EB3 applicants waiting. If few of these folks decide to port EB2-ROW-M-P can get backlogged with a snap of fingers! Hmmm ..something to think about. I didn't mean to depress EB2IC folks. But they should be :-)

[imdeng]

I don't think EB3ROWMP folks feel the need to port as acutely as EB3I - just because of the difference in the amount of waiting involved. You need 5 years experience (ball park) for porting to EB2 and the waiting for EB3 is 6 years - so might as well wait for another year and get the GC in EB3ROWMP.

Assuming 2.25 applicants for each PERM, 2.25*57.2K = 128.7K

Wow! That is a lot of EB3 applicants waiting. If few of these folks decide to port EB2-ROW-M-P can get backlogged with a snap of fingers! Hmmm ..something to think about. I didn't mean to depress EB2IC folks. But they should be :-)

[sbhagwat2000]

I don't get it. Aren't you a porter yourself? Many people like you are porting - so why are you worried about porting per se? I would be thankful for the porting option if I were in your shoes.

Now as for your case - your PD will most likely be current in December. If not, within a couple of months. I would not really worry about the PD right now. Even if many people in 2005 ported, your PD is early in the year, so I don't see why you should not be current by Dec/Jan. Spillover for your own specific case is immaterial.

Also, the inventory doesn't paint the complete picture. There could be many pending cases in the inventory at a given juncture. It's just a snapshot. The queue processes certain number of cases and the rate of approvals is what's important and that's exactly what the USCIS never reveals. Yes, the EB1 usage was high last year. We don't know what it will be this year. My gut feeling is that EB1 will yield some spillover - if lucky, it could go into 5 digits. EB2-ROW will also yield a healthy spillover despite the backlog clearance. Everything considered, I see the EB2-I dates in the later half of 2008 by the end of this FY.

Spillover to my date and case may not be immaterial as remember from June - October dates were U. We dont know the number of interfiling letters sent. All these will now be reflected in the DD and processed. If that number is huge we will need spillover to move dates even into 2005.

[ksur23]

What do you guys think about Ron's prediction below about eb2I going in to 2009 this fiscal year?


"All I know is what I hear from the experts in the Visa Office. They say that cutoff date movement for India EB2 is going to be slow during the first fiscal quarter of the year (October - December). After that it should pick up and move into 2009."

[Spectator]

What do you guys think about Ron's prediction below about eb2I going in to 2009 this fiscal year?


"All I know is what I hear from the experts in the Visa Office. They say that cutoff date movement for India EB2 is going to be slow during the first fiscal quarter of the year (October - December). After that it should pick up and move into 2009."

Let's put some figures to that and you can decide.

According to the Demand Data, just to reach the end of 2008 requires about 25.7k approvals for EB2-IC. With an allowance for porting, that is probably slightly over 30k.

That means that about 25k spare visas would need to be available from EB4, EB5, EB1 and EB2-WW.

I'll leave it to you to decide whether that is possible or not.

[qesehmk]

To add to what Spec said here - there have been years when the SOFAD has been 5K and there have been years when it was 40K or even more. So will it be in 2013 closer to 40K or 5K? Depending on the answers the dates could move between Dec 2007 and Jun 2009. My own guess is it will be around Sep 2008.

Let's put some figures to that and you can decide.

According to the Demand Data, just to reach the end of 2008 requires about 25.7k approvals for EB2-IC. With an allowance for porting, that is probably slightly over 30k.

That means that about 25k spare visas would need to be available from EB4, EB5, EB1 and EB2-WW.

I'll leave it to you to decide whether that is possible or not.

[Spectator]

To add to what Spec said here - there have been years when the SOFAD has been 5K and there have been years when it was 40K or even more. So will it be in 2013 closer to 40K or 5K? Depending on the answers the dates could move between Dec 2007 and Jun 2009. My own guess is it will be around Sep 2008.

The historical Spillover and SOFAD figures can be found here.

Spillover has varied between a low of 7.5k (FY2009) and a high of 26.6k (FY2011).

The corresponding SOFAD figures are 13.2k and 32.3k respectively.

The figure for FY2011 is really artificially high due to the extremely low EB1 approvals in FY2011.

The FY2012 figure is not yet available, but is unlikely to be as high as FY2011 and will be inflated by numbers (at least 6k) that were over-allocated at the expense of EB2-WW, causing that group to retrogress.

In FY2013, it is likely that there will be an element of "pay back" of the over-allocated visas, causing a lower number for spillover to EB2-IC.

A Cut Off Date of September 2008 for EB2-IC would require about 25k SOFAD (including Porting).

Currently, I think the final Cut Off Date for FY2013 is likely to be at the lower end of your range, although it is really too early to say.

On Porting to date, the EB2-I demand had already reduced by 250 in the 9 days before the November Demand Data was published.

Based on that, the current figure for the month appears to be slightly over 600. This may have influenced CO's decision to keep the Cut Off Date at 01SEP04 for EB2-I in the November VB.

[ksur23]

The historical Spillover and SOFAD figures can be found here.

Spillover has varied between a low of 7.5k (FY2009) and a high of 26.6k (FY2011).

The corresponding SOFAD figures are 13.2k and 32.3k respectively.

The figure for FY2011 is really artificially high due to the extremely low EB1 approvals in FY2011.

The FY2012 figure is not yet available, but is unlikely to be as high as FY2011 and will be inflated by numbers (at least 6k) that were over-allocated at the expense of EB2-WW, causing that group to retrogress.

In FY2013, it is likely that there will be an element of "pay back" of the over-allocated visas, causing a lower number for spillover to EB2-IC.

A Cut Off Date of September 2008 for EB2-IC would require about 25k SOFAD (including Porting).

Currently, I think the final Cut Off Date for FY2013 is likely to be at the lower end of your range, although it is really too early to say.

On Porting to date, the EB2-I demand had already reduced by 250 in the 9 days before the November Demand Data was published.

Based on that, the current figure for the month appears to be slightly over 600. This may have influenced CO's decision to keep the Cut Off Date at 01SEP04 for EB2-I in the November VB.

From what you and Q are saying and extrapolating EB2I PD the beginning of 2009 PDs would fall in 2nd quarter of 2014? This is like the consensus forecast i guess, taking the average of the EPS (in this case PD) forecasts of various important equity analysts (in this case PD analysts!

[qesehmk]

Spec thanks. I used 2008 numbers and mistakenly assumed ROW then at 30K max - which gave 40K SOFAD. However forgot that in 2008 tons of ROW backlog was cleared as opposed to providing SOFAD to EB2IC.

So if we go by 32K as the high number and 7K as low then 20K is the mean which should approximately forward dates around Aug-2008. In reality we will know better when we see the latest 485 inventory.

The historical Spillover and SOFAD figures can be found here.

Spillover has varied between a low of 7.5k (FY2009) and a high of 26.6k (FY2011).

The corresponding SOFAD figures are 13.2k and 32.3k respectively.

The figure for FY2011 is really artificially high due to the extremely low EB1 approvals in FY2011.

The FY2012 figure is not yet available, but is unlikely to be as high as FY2011 and will be inflated by numbers (at least 6k) that were over-allocated at the expense of EB2-WW, causing that group to retrogress.

In FY2013, it is likely that there will be an element of "pay back" of the over-allocated visas, causing a lower number for spillover to EB2-IC.

A Cut Off Date of September 2008 for EB2-IC would require about 25k SOFAD (including Porting).

Currently, I think the final Cut Off Date for FY2013 is likely to be at the lower end of your range, although it is really too early to say.

On Porting to date, the EB2-I demand had already reduced by 250 in the 9 days before the November Demand Data was published.

Based on that, the current figure for the month appears to be slightly over 600. This may have influenced CO's decision to keep the Cut Off Date at 01SEP04 for EB2-I in the November VB.

[qesehmk]

EB2_Dec07 - sorry I never responded to this.

I think this should be achievable in a couple of months (if spillover starts immediately - less likely) and worst case is Jun 2013 since the backlog upto Dec 2007 is more than EB2I quota.

The reason there is so much difference in two dates is simply because Visa office has never been consistent in execution of its policies (if any). If anything they are consistent about being unpredictable unfortunately.

Q/ Spec/ Gurus ,

Exactly what month or range of months do we predict EB2-India to reach or cross Dec 07

[Spectator]

Spec thanks. I used 2008 numbers and mistakenly assumed ROW then at 30K max - which gave 40K SOFAD. However forgot that in 2008 tons of ROW backlog was cleared as opposed to providing SOFAD to EB2IC.

So if we go by 32K as the high number and 7K as low then 20K is the mean which should approximately forward dates around Aug-2008. In reality we will know better when we see the latest 485 inventory.

Q,

Via a different calculation, I would agree that underlying SOFAD for EB2-IC has averaged 19-20k since spillover changed. Each year, there has been a factor that has altered the actual figure. Possibly there will be another one in FY2013.

In my calculations, 20k would leave EB2-I at May-June 2008, depending on how much Porting is assumed.

If there is a payback of, say, 6k visas over-allocated in FY2012, then the figure for FY2013 would drop to 13-14k. That would pull the dates back to the end of 2007 for EB2-I.

Of course, that may not happen, but EB5 numbers are also likely to increase.

EB2-WW is a strange beast! Despite lowering PERM approvals, the approval numbers have held up. In FY2011 they actually exceeded their allocation and appeared on course for a figure around 30k in FY2012 before they were retrogressed. At the same time, the backlog numbers in the USCIS Inventory did not reduce, That tends to say that backlog reduction is not the cause. There seems to be something about EB2-WW that we (well at least me) don't fully understand. NIW, Schedule A and the WW EB2/EB3 split are some unknowns that immediately come to mind.

For me, it is EB2-WW that holds the key for SOFAD in FY2013, not EB1.

I agree that the new Inventory may be useful, but it has never been great for understanding Categories/Countries that are Current.

I do hope CO releases the FY2012 Visa Statistics in January rather than August. I think there is a quite wide variation in what people think happened last year and I would like to see the actual figures. Only then can I really reset my own thinking and forecasts.

[kd2008]

Q,

Via a different calculation, I would agree that underlying SOFAD for EB2-IC has averaged 19-20k since spillover changed. Each year, there has been a factor that has altered the actual figure. Possibly there will be another one in FY2013.

In my calculations, 20k would leave EB2-I at May-June 2008, depending on how much Porting is assumed.

If there is a payback of, say, 6k visas over-allocated in FY2012, then the figure for FY2013 would drop to 13-14k. That would pull the dates back to the end of 2007 for EB2-I.

Of course, that may not happen, but EB5 numbers are also likely to increase.

EB2-WW is a strange beast! Despite lowering PERM approvals, the approval numbers have held up. In FY2011 they actually exceeded their allocation and appeared on course for a figure around 30k in FY2012 before they were retrogressed. At the same time, the backlog numbers in the USCIS Inventory did not reduce, That tends to say that backlog reduction is not the cause. There seems to be something about EB2-WW that we (well at least me) don't fully understand. NIW, Schedule A and the WW EB2/EB3 split are some unknowns that immediately come to mind.

For me, it is EB2-WW that holds the key for SOFAD in FY2013, not EB1.

I agree that the new Inventory may be useful, but it has never been great for understanding Categories/Countries that are Current.

I do hope CO releases the FY2012 Visa Statistics in January rather than August. I think there is a quite wide variation in what people think happened last year and I would like to see the actual figures. Only then can I really reset my own thinking and forecasts.

Spec, may be EB2-WW has a certain lumpiness in approvals - either due to PERM approvals slowing down/backlog or I-485 approvals slowing down. So say, June-Dec period sees high rate of EB2-WW approvals ...they end up showing as a slightly high demand in two fiscal years that straddle that period. Just a theory. May be we can back test this theory from limited trackitt data.

[Spectator]

Spec, may be EB2-WW has a certain lumpiness in approvals - either due to PERM approvals slowing down/backlog or I-485 approvals slowing down. So say, June-Dec period sees high rate of EB2-WW approvals ...they end up showing as a slightly high demand in two fiscal years that straddle that period. Just a theory. May be we can back test this theory from limited trackitt data.

kd,

I've tried to understand it several times without success. Any insight would be gratefully received.

Over time, the numbers still remain surprisingly high. EB2-WW = ROW, M & P

FY2008 - 48,338 (probably high due to July 2007 effect??)
FY2009 - 32,865
FY2010 - 27,406
FY2011 - 34,550

Ignoring FY2008, that still is an average of 31.6k per year with no particular trend.

I have to suspect that large parts of ROW have abandoned EB3 as a route to residency in recent years and that the EB2/EB3 split may be even higher than for EB2-I. China, Mexico and Philippines are different for various reasons IMO.

If so, that could be good news for EB3 in the future (perhaps post PD2008), but approvals that late are likely still several years away, even though the Cut Off Dates might advance much sooner.

When that happens, for the first time, we may be able to see the reality, depending how far they are advanced.

[GhostWriter]

Spec, any thoughts on 2012 PERM numbers for EB-WW.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...0616#post30616

Does 22K PERM figure for EB-WW seem reasonable. Also do you assume 80% approval rate for I-140s for the overall ratio. It could be higher than that, only 15% PERMs were denied or withdrawn. So denial rate at I-140 stage should be even lower.

How many I-485s would you say 22K EB-WW PERMs can generate for EB2-WW ?

kd,


Over time, the numbers still remain surprisingly high. EB2-WW = ROW, M & P

FY2008 - 48,338 (probably high due to July 2007 effect??)
FY2009 - 32,865
FY2010 - 27,406
FY2011 - 34,550

Ignoring FY2008, that still is an average of 31.6k per year with no particular trend.

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

I just saw this update from the Capital Immigration Law Group newsletter.

Heads Up: Bleak picture painted for EB2-I

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2012/...m_medium=email

[Spectator]

I just saw this update from the Capital Immigration Law Group newsletter.

Heads Up: Bleak picture painted for EB2-I

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2012/...m_medium=email

IsItWorthTheTrouble,

Thanks for bringing this to the forum.

Here is the part dealing with EB2-I for FY2013.

For EB-2 India Mr. Oppenheim indicated that very little or no movement is expected over the next months.

The reason is simply the huge demand of EB-2 cases and the very small number of visa numbers available in this category.

The high demand appears to be caused by the high number of I-485 cases filed by EB-2 applicants (and their family members) earlier this year and also the very high number of EB-3 India applicants who are now porting into EB-2 India.

Mr. Oppenheim suggested almost no movement in EB-2 India with an absolutely best case scenario of having a cutoff date of late 2007 or early 2008 by the end of the fiscal year.

I suggest people read the whole article - it is very interesting.

I noted that he did not mention EB3-Philippines or EB4.

Other "highlights":

EB-1. This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year.

EB-2 Rest of World (ROW). This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year; however, Mr. Oppenheim suggested that depending on demand he may introduce a cutoff date towards the end of the fiscal year, not unlike what happened during the summer of 2012.

EB-2 China and EB-2 India. Unlike last year, where these two categories were anticipated to move forward dramatically, unfortunately, EB-2 for China and India are expected to move very slowly. Specifically, Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he expects EB-2 China to move forward by approximately 2 weeks in every month’s visa bulletin with a possible target of cutoff date somewhere in the second half of 2008 by the end of the fiscal year (September 30, 2013).

EB-5. Mr. Oppenheim suggested that the demand for EB-5 is very strong — a 120% increase compared to last year, with 80% of the allocated numbers going to Chinese nationals. Mr. Oppenheim suggested that a cutoff date (the first for EB-5) is possible (even highly likely) towards later in the fiscal year. As an example, Mr. Oppenheim indicated that 20% of the annual numbers for EB-5 have been used in the first two months of the fiscal year – October and November.

[abcx13]

IsItWorthTheTrouble,

Thanks for bringing this to the forum.

Here is the part dealing with EB2-I for FY2013.



I suggest people read the whole article - it is very interesting.

I noted that he did not mention EB3-Philippines or EB4.

Other "highlights":

I just received the newsletter and was coming here to post the snippets. While interesting, it basically says the EB2I situation is completely f***ed. Apologies for the language - but when EB2 doesn't advance at all for a whole year thanks to porting, that's the only word that fits. They need to do something about restricting porting and becoming stricter about educational evals. Counting dependents doesn't help either.

[sbhagwat2000]

I just received the newsletter and was coming here to post the snippets. While interesting, it basically says the EB2I situation is completely f***ed. Apologies for the language - but when EB2 doesn't advance at all for a whole year thanks to porting, that's the only word that fits. They need to do something about restricting porting and becoming stricter about educational evals. Counting dependents doesn't help either.

Since hes talking about a cutoff for EB 2 WW that means theres not going to be any spillover right? So hes correct in saying that EB 2 I will not move even by a single day throughout the year. Whats going to happen is this I think - Just like Fy 2011 - the date will not move until July 2013. If at that time we get spillover then the dates will move into 2007 as hes saying.

[Spectator]

Spec, any thoughts on 2012 PERM numbers for EB-WW.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...0616#post30616

Does 22K PERM figure for EB-WW seem reasonable. Also do you assume 80% approval rate for I-140s for the overall ratio. It could be higher than that, only 15% PERMs were denied or withdrawn. So denial rate at I-140 stage should be even lower.

How many I-485s would you say 22K EB-WW PERMs can generate for EB2-WW ?

GhostWriter,

As I have already said, I find it quite difficult to gauge EB2-WW demand from the available information.

I would suggest that the TR might be >1.

Since EB2-WW is generally Current, the Demand Destruction factor is going to be a lot lower than for Countries that are retrogressed.

[abcx13]

Since hes talking about a cutoff for EB 2 WW that means theres not going to be any spillover right? So hes correct in saying that EB 2 I will not move even by a single day throughout the year. Whats going to happen is this I think - Just like Fy 2011 - the date will not move until July 2013. If at that time we get spillover then the dates will move into 2007 as hes saying.

Yeah, but the long term shift is what scares me - EB2I is very quickly morphing into EB3I, exactly as I had feared. This is just proof of that. With ROW demand where it is and the long backlog of EB3I, non-porting-EB2I is barely going to have any allocation left over.

[abcx13]

Even if there is absolutely zero porting, the current backlog of EB2-I will take a decade to clean without any spillovers.

Don't disagree and if ROW demand rises, this may well be the case - but I doubt it'll take a year. But my point was that EB2-I is NOT EVEN MOVING thanks to porting. And I think CO still doesn't know what the exact porting numbers are...I don't know why one of the attorneys hasn't asked what % of EB2I has gone to porting in the past x months/years.

[Spectator]

I think CO still doesn't know what the exact porting numbers are...I don't know why one of the attorneys hasn't asked what % of EB2I has gone to porting in the past x months/years.

He doesn't. The information is unknown.

CO has said previously that neither USCIS or DOS keep track of those numbers. The best he can do is guesstimate, which he did in a previous communication. His "guesstimate" was so high that it is difficult to take it entirely seriously. He really doesn't know.