EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[redsox2009]

More cases from 2008 and 2009 were added as expetcted.

Looks like China date will progress.

I'm not sure if the ROW will become current. I highly doubt.

[openaccount]

Not bad from Demand Data EB2ROW were shot of 5.5k to 6k max in FY2012. I was expecting this to be around 8 k. So EB2ROW will be 'C' in November. EB2I should move to some where in 2005.

[druvraj]

Hi everyone,

Last year when the dates stopped somewhere close to mid year of 2007 I was confident that my PD(Feb-2008) will be current. I actually told my wife that 2012 will be the year we will get our GCs. The kind of year we had was totally unexpected. So this year I am kinda open minded by not making any prediction at the same time hoping that I will get it in 2013 full 5 years after I applied for the labor. Good luck to all.

It is Oct 10 and still the VB is not out.Surprising!!!???

[gc_soon]

EB3-I before Jan 1, 2007 as per demand data was 43,900 in Oct DD and now it's 43,500. Just a 400 reduction.
Other than monthly allocation of EB3-I, looks like less than 150 are porting cases with PD Jan 1,2007 that have been reflected in the latest DD.

Last month's DD from a Trackitt comment.
Last Month Demand Data

Employment Second Preference
Cumulative All Other
Demand Prior To Countries China India Grand Total
January 1, 2007 25 75 1,350 1,450
January 1, 2008 25 925 5,500 6,450
January 1, 2009 25 4,075 20,000 24,100
January 1, 2010 275 6,375 30,900 37,550
January 1, 2012 4,850 6,950 34,000 45,800

Employment Third Preference
Cumulative All Other Grand
Demand Prior To Countries China India Mexico Philippines Total
January 1, 2002 0 0 0 0 0 0
January 1, 2003 0 0 2,475 0 0 2,475
January 1, 2004 0 0 13,500 0 0 13,500
January 1, 2005 0 50 25,925 0 0 25,975
January 1, 2006 200 175 34,050 25 75 34,525
January 1, 2007 4,925 1,200 43,900 450 5,325 55,800
January 1, 2012 12,650 1,700 47,550 1,275 7,700 70,875

[RRRRRR]

Hi All,

It is the 8th business day of this month and no Visa bulletin yet,do you think they are cooking something really good...?

Thanks

[nilebib]

Hi All,

It is the 8th business day of this month and no Visa bulletin yet,do you think they are cooking something really good...?

Thanks

Not for EB2I , But I assume EB2 ROW will be current.

[vishnu]

ya, dont expect any positives for eb2 i until Q3/Q4 when spill over levels become clearer.

[goforgreen]

Hi All,

It is the 8th business day of this month and no Visa bulletin yet,do you think they are cooking something really good...?

Thanks

I was just thinking when will someone post saying "its already 10 and no bulletin, will it be good news ..." :-)

I know we always hope against hope, but I think CO is back to being overly cautious after being overly aggressive in moving dates in 2012.

On another note my Labour was filed for the role of Project Manager, is Data Architect/Technology Architect considered a similar role or not. I've completed 6 months of 485 filing and see many opportunities coming up, but most of them are in the roles I mentioned above. So wondering if it would be considered a similar job as the labour application.

[GCKnowHow]

EB3-I before Jan 1, 2007 as per demand data was 43,900 in Oct DD and now it's 43,500. Just a 400 reduction.
Other than monthly allocation of EB3-I, looks like less than 150 are porting cases with PD Jan 1,2007 that have been reflected in the latest DD.

Last month's DD from a Trackitt comment.
Last Month Demand Data ...........................

EB2I Demand reduced only 250 before Jan 07 and quite a lot increased for the rest. Seems like porting is on full swing.

Cumulative .........All Other
Demand Prior To...Countries...China ...India...Grand Total
January 1, 2007..........-25.......-75.....-250......-350
January 1, 2008.............0.....-100.......300.......200
January 1, 2009.............0........25....1,275.....1,300
January 1, 2010........-225.......125....2,400.....2,300
January 1, 2012.....-3,200.......250....3,200........250

[gc_soon]

EB2I Demand reduced only 250 before Jan 07 and quite a lot increased for the rest. Seems like porting is on full swing.

Cumulative .........All Other
Demand Prior To...Countries...China ...India...Grand Total
January 1, 2007..........-25.......-75.....-250......-350
January 1, 2008.............0.....-100.......300.......200
January 1, 2009.............0........25....1,275.....1,300
January 1, 2010........-225.......125....2,400.....2,300
January 1, 2012.....-3,200.......250....3,200........250

Good analysis. But as Vishnu pointed out in comment #52, it could be that more cases are getting pre-adjucated. Seeing the effect of porting might take some time, as it's been <10 days in VB and interfiling step could take 2-4 weeks.

[gkjppp]

My PD is Mar/2010. so atleast for next 1.5 to 2 years i cant dream about GC. recently i got one contract to hire offer. Salary is 20% more than what i make now, I am thinking to go for it.

1. My H1 is valid till Feb,2013. recently my employer asked me to fill I9 to change to EAD. Now working on EAD.is it possible to go back to H1 and renew it?

2.if I change my employer , its already 180 days completed. i see these days USCIS is sending denial letters instead of NOID. I think my current employer definetely revoke my I140, does this triggers 485 denial/NOID though i send them AC21?

[coolguy]

My PD is Mar/2010. so atleast for next 1.5 to 2 years i cant dream about GC. recently i got one contract to hire offer. Salary is 20% more than what i make now, I am thinking to go for it.

1. My H1 is valid till Feb,2013. recently my employer asked me to fill I9 to change to EAD. Now working on EAD.is it possible to go back to H1 and renew it?

2.if I change my employer , its already 180 days completed. i see these days USCIS is sending denial letters instead of NOID. I think my current employer definetely revoke my I140, does this triggers 485 denial/NOID though i send them AC21?

Once on EAD, your H1 is no more valid (if you didnt get it renewed). You cannot renew it.

If I140 gets revoked by the current employer, you may end up having problem when getting GC.

[imdeng]

I was looking through Spec's data repository and I was struck by the fact that amidst all the doom and gloom, FY2010 and FY2011 have been blockbuster years for EB2I. All time high SOFADs. I think we are in a phase of temporary hiatus, burning through the excesses of FY2012 - but soon we will be back to track. My hope is that the recent misadventures of CO will not dissuade him from continuing with quarterly (monthly?) spillovers when EB2ROW becomes current.

BTW - did Spec and others post their estimate of the SOFAD for FY2012? The search function of the board is not very effective, at least in my hands.

[imdeng]

Demand Data shows EB3 to be in a very interesting situation. C/M/ROW - everybody except I and P, are poised to enter the abyss after 07/07 in next few months. It will be very interesting to see what kind of density they get once they cross the threshold. While we perhaps overestimated the demand destruction situation in EB2I, I would not be surprised if the demand destruction is more real in the EB3 world.

[willywonka]

Hello gurus
Does the retrogression of Eb2I to 2004, monthly quota allocation and slow movement forward until summer of 2013 actually reduce the potential rate of porting ?
Does the impending financial cliff look bad enough to contribute any additional spillover for Eb2I than what we would get otherwise ?
Thanks

[GCKnowHow]

Once on EAD, your H1 is no more valid (if you didnt get it renewed). You cannot renew it.

If I140 gets revoked by the current employer, you may end up having problem when getting GC.

I think this is not correct. You can move to H1 as long as its valid. And H1 can be renewed until final decision on I485.

If AC21 is used then the application becomes invalid only if the employer revokes I-140 based on fraudulent info/data.

Experts please confirm.

[GCKnowHow]

Hello gurus
Does the retrogression of Eb2I to 2004, monthly quota allocation and slow movement forward until summer of 2013 actually reduce the potential rate of porting ?
Does the impending financial cliff look bad enough to contribute any additional spillover for Eb2I than what we would get otherwise ?
Thanks

I rather think otherwise. Slow movement gives ample opportunity for porting to use as much, before the dates forward. If a big movement happens then the most of the visa will be consumed by pre-adjucated applications.

[self.coach]

I think this is not correct. You can move to H1 as long as its valid. And H1 can be renewed until final decision on I485.

If AC21 is used then the application becomes invalid only if the employer revokes I-140 based on fraudulent info/data.

Experts please confirm.

What does significant salary change mean with regard to AC21? If one gets a job at another company that pays 40% more salary for the same position, would that casue the AC21 to be denieD?

[usernameisnotvalid]

User nt2012 with PD Sep 2008 EB2 recieved I-485 CPO mail ?!!??

[imdeng]

Source? Link?? Did I miss something somewhere???

User nt2012 with PD Sep 2008 EB2 recieved I-485 CPO mail ?!!??

[imdeng]

I do not have direct experience of this - but based on what I have read, if your job is in a similar area, then career progression (and hence more money) is not a problem. Even less salary is not a problem by itself (for example - if you move to a less expensive city). Look up Murthy's FAQ on AC21 - it is very informative. Also - I believe denials of AC21 are rare and happens only in egregious cases.

What does significant salary change mean with regard to AC21? If one gets a job at another company that pays 40% more salary for the same position, would that casue the AC21 to be denieD?

[Spectator]

User nt2012 with PD Sep 2008 EB2 recieved I-485 CPO mail ?!!??

I think it is probably significant that the user used the phrase:

Posted by nt2012 (25) 34 minutes ago
I got an SMS this afternoon for my and my wife I-485 from TSC stating that Card Production Ordered and mailed today.

That suggests that they actually only had a document mailed to them, not actually a Card Production. it doesn't particularly suggest an approval to me.

[usernameisnotvalid]

It is trackkit.

I checked this guy's profile and he mentioned I-140 approval date Sep 2008 and his PD is also Sep 2008 ?!?!? Something is not correct. Typo?

Source? Link?? Did I miss something somewhere???

[usernameisnotvalid]

..and nt2012 is already under interrogation on trackkit!

[mbasense]

Thus, although the SOFAD prospects remain good for the foreseeable future, EB2-I will be unable to close or reduce the gap due to increasing demand. Long term, the queue is not sustainable.

very well said. if they choose not to regulate porting or have some sort of differenciator EB2-I will cease to be much different from EB3-I.

Q - you should add like buttons - a lot of posts from the gurus will surely rack up some numbers - might reduce some thank you clean ups too