EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[Jagan01]

Interfiling does require an approved PERM and I-140. It's basically starting a new GC process but you get to keep the old PD.

(I have my own views on retaining the old PD when porting but I'll keep them to myself now as its moot)

Does it require a new I-485 as well ?

I read somewhere in trackitt that the old I-485 (which was filed in first application) gets linked to the new I-140 ?

[Jagan01]

Were you looking for this post? I dont' think it addresses your concern.

I'm not an expert on the issue but my belief is that it has to be preceded by both PERM and I-140 filings. Then, only when dates are current is the interfiling request sent (or a fresh I485 if no I485 has been applied for previously). Others here will correct me if I'm wrong.

The DD was based on data as of the 7th (End of Day I believe), so subtract out the 100 before then and you get to 250 - 100 - 50 = 100 that maps to the 1,000 known demand. Two possibilities, a) The 100 maps to the 1,000 so the trackitt representation is closer to 10% of the legacy filers, or b) the trackitt representation contineus at 6% but porters pre July 2007 PDs are continuing to interfile at about 400 in October thus far.

So with the interfile request you do not need a new I-485 ?

If that is the case then surely porting is much higher than 6k that people were estimating. There are already 400+ applications on trackitt that have filed new I-485 in last two months. That potentially is 5500+ applications. And then if interfilers are not filing new I-485 then these would be at least another few thousand.

[Kanmani]

So with the interfile request you do not need a new I-485 ?

If that is the case then surely porting is much higher than 6k that people were estimating. There are already 400+ applications on trackitt that have filed new I-485 in last two months. That potentially is 5500+ applications. And then if interfilers are not filing new I-485 then these would be at least another few thousand.

An interfile request doesn't require a new I-485. USCIS recommends only one pending I-485 per Alien number. Period.

[vizcard]

So with the interfile request you do not need a new I-485 ?

If that is the case then surely porting is much higher than 6k that people were estimating. There are already 400+ applications on trackitt that have filed new I-485 in last two months. That potentially is 5500+ applications. And then if interfilers are not filing new I-485 then these would be at least another few thousand.

Inter filers need a 485 if they never filed one before. Those with PD after July 2007 were never current and hence never filed a 485. So they would need to file new 485s. Inter filers after PD July 2007 are pretty much like new EB2 applicants.

[Jagan01]

Inter filers need a 485 if they never filed one before. Those with PD after July 2007 were never current and hence never filed a 485. So they would need to file new 485s. Inter filers after PD July 2007 are pretty much like new EB2 applicants.

Pedro, Kanmani, Viz, Q and other gurus:

Thanks for your replies.

I made the point earlier that there are 400+ applications on trackitt that have filed I-485 in Aug / Sep. That would be around 5500+ applkications. On top of that we have the other interfilers that do not have to file I-485.

I remember a previous conversation where people were saying that there would be more interfilers who have already filed I-485 compared to the ones that have not filed I-485.

That would mean a lot of interfilers that have not filed new I-485 and are still pending. What do you guys think that number is. I am thinking approximately 2k.

So essentially according to me there are 5+2+1 = 8k applications before June 2008. This looks scary enough and I do not know how people are predicting that dates can move to Mar 2009 and beyond. I think it is difficult to even move to Jan 2009?

Can someone please do some number crunching.
1. How many interfilers that filed first I-485 in Aug/Sep are pending according to you? My take 5500
2. How many interfilers that had originally filed I-485 and are just going to use the old I-485 are pending according to you? My take 2000
3. How many of the original EB2 applications that had filed I-485 in 2012 are pending according to you ? My take 500
4. How many more interfilers will we see every month? (This will increase the demand as long as dates don't go back)

[Kanmani]

The first time I-485 filers with eb2 I-140 Pd ported are not interfilers , they are one among the porters .

The term interfiler refers to those who already have I-485 applications with USCIS, and the applicants prefer to change their category by obtaining new Perm/I140 in due course , interfiling (link) their new I-140 with that of old the I-485.

Interfiling is an official term which is in use by USCIS.

[Kanmani]

I have conceded on that point in the post http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...4403#post44403

I did a quick referral on INA ( many relevant parts being familiar to me from me reading & analyzing it couple of years back)
I couldn't find an explicit statement describing country cap effect on FB spillover visas. The only way I could infer that country quota is applicable to spillover is to assume FB spillover just expands the quota, doesn't do anything else. However my common sense tells me otherwise for the following reasons.

1. Country cap is not being applied to fall-across spillover.
2. Even for FB spillover, the visas are allocated equally across categories( EB2, EB3 etc).

Considering the above factors I am inclined to believe that country quota doesn't apply for FB spillover.

However I have conceded to you argument based on the link I posted earlier and Q affirming he believes so.

INA doesn't force me to accept your view. The post by Kanmani just points to quota allocation, nothing more. If you have a specific link to INA that mentions how country-cap is applicable to FB spillovers, please let me know.

gcq,

Actually there is no FB spillover exists!

Many users are unfamiliar with the forum usage terms like spillover/SOFAD/Fall-down/Fall-across gets confused. Spillover is a forum usage term, while INA uses the term Otherwise Unused Numbers (OUN).

There is nothing official with the term FB Spillover, some of us are using this for no reason. I recommend someone to comeup with a new term to refer Previous year's unused FB (for time being PvYr.FB)

Last year even before DoS's announcement, Spectator pointed out that 2012's unused FB (18k) was due for 2013 EB quota. Many rookies including myself thought 18k would go to retrogressed countries as spillover.(later realised the reality with the help of Spec).


As Pedro explained above, Previous year's unused FB alters the overall EB quota inturn alters the category allocation and per country limitation.

No provisions in INA specifies the direct allocation of unused visas to retrogressed countries. I/C gets these OUN only through fallacross within the EB2 category. No by-pass route from FB.

For example, If your Basic Pay is increased by 10% in the middle of the Tax year.

What will you do?

1. Calculate Fed tax, State tax, SStx accordingly by adding Basic Pay + 10%

2. Separate that 10% to pocket and pay only tax as per Basic pay amount.


The overall EB quota is as simple as that.

I stop here.

[vizcard]

I was using a term "FB overflow" last year but "FB bonus" also works . I think let's just call it what it is - unused FB.

[Kanmani]

I go with unused FB. Lets get other's approval too.

[Jagan01]

I think we need to revise the trackitt %. I don't think there are of the order 5K first time filers. Tottal cumulative demand including the interfilers before June 2008 should be a small enough number for the date to stay where it is.

Sports,

I do not think trackitt is more than 8%. There were 1259 approvals in Aug/Sep and we know from demand data that there were at least 16000 approvals minimum. It might be more than that. with 16000 mapping to 1259, we would have 7.8% representation in trackitt. Max 8%. It cannot be more than that.

So yes, trackitt % might not be the traditional 6% but it surely is not more than 8%.

Even with 8% representation, the figures look scary
1. First time I-485 filers since aug 2013 --> 413 --> 5162
2. The non-first time filers approved in Oct --> 263 - 57 = 206 --> 2575
3. Let us assume a best case that the 800 odd pending according to the DD before June 15, 2008 all got approved within this 2575 approvals that came in Oct.

This means already 2575 visas granted from FY2014. Another potential 5162 to be consumed by first time filers if dates continue to stay at June 2008.

I am afraid that with the dates staying at June 2008 for Dec bulletin, more than 7.5k visas would have been given out for the year and consumed by porters.

Also the 7.5k is the best case because of the below two points:
1. I am not even counting the new porters that would be porting as we speak.
2. I am assuming that the 2575 have drained all the interfile (people who do not need to file new I-485 and are porting) and the original 800 left out as per DD.

Realisitically, I think 10k will be eaten up from FY2014 by porters+pre June 2008 demand.

With less spillover predicted for FY2014, I do not see dates moving much even by the end of FY.

[erikbond101]

Pedro, Kanmani, Viz, Q and other gurus:

Can someone please do some number crunching.
1. How many interfilers that filed first I-485 in Aug/Sep are pending according to you? My take 5500 I would say 3500-4000 because I will only apply factor of 10. Remember atleast 15% are already approved from Aug 2013 filers
2. How many interfilers that had originally filed I-485 and are just going to use the old I-485 are pending according to you? My take 2000 I would say max 1000...remember we are talking pre July 2007 pending porters. More than 75% of them are already approved
3. How many of the original EB2 applications that had filed I-485 in 2012 are pending according to you ? My take 500 correct
4. How many more interfilers will we see every month? (This will increase the demand as long as dates don't go back) 300 per month

edited to correct format

[Jagan01]

edited to correct format

erikbond,

So you are saying more 1000 of type (2) and 500 of type (3) remaining as of today (Oct 22, 2013) correct... ?

[Jagan01]

At the risk of not going into detailed math, I can only say that these many first timers are not realistic. We are saying that there are 5.5K a) EB3 filers between July 07 and June 08 who are all porting, and b) first time EB2 filers who somehow never filed when the dates were current for about 5 months or so last year. It doesn't sound realistic. Someone else can correct me if I am wrong.

Also, let's assume that the worst case, 10K are eaten up as you say. Subtracting for 3K quota, that still leaves a spillover of 16K to cross into 2009. I believe this is a big spillover year due to various factors (PERM slowdown, economy worsening due to bickering in DC, EB3-ROW advance reducing the ROW porting substantially etc and finally, a potential upside to still more FB "spillover"). I believe March 2009 is realistic and June 2009 is certainly possible this FY.

P.S. We are also assuming somehow percentages are the same. This is not a realistic assumption. Case in point: Me. My own case is NOT on trackitt tracker because I "don't care" (got EAD, am happy). The people who became current after nearly 14 months of retrogression might be following all the events more intently and be on trackitt with a greater percentage than otherwise. If I had to come up with a rough estimate, it will be as follows: Approximately 1K first time EB2 filers + 100*14 EB3 to EB2 porters. The second number is as follows: Assume 400 porters per month. Also assume uniform distribution (I am generous with this because porting is certainly maximum in 2005/06 years). Then the porters without 485 are approximately 25% of all porters (considering where EB3-I date is now). I know that I am assuming that all pre-2007 have filed 485s, but that assumption is offset by my "uniform distribution" assumption. 14 is for 14 months for unavailability. Thus, there should be about half the first timers than what you indicate. If there are anywhere close to 5K, I see no way EB2-I date stays where it is. There are already reports of "fast USCIS processing". If the date still stays, we can safely assume that the numbers are lower.

Sports,

I disagree with the theory that porting demand is lower. I stick with my numbers and have shown you that trackit does amount for 8% of cases as per aug/sep 2013 events.

One important point. I know that most of us tend to think that all first time I-485 filers will be post July 2007.

You will be surprised to know that out of the 413 first time filers in Aug/Sep 2013, 105 are pre Aug 2007 PDs.
We tend to think that yes many of us missed the boat in the 5 months where EB2I leaped. But we forget easily that EB3I was current only for ONE month. If EB2I people can miss filling in a period of 5 months then why cant EB3I people miss filing in one month.

I feel there are many EB3I candidates with PDs before Aug 2007 who do not have I-485 filed. They amount for 25% of the first time I-485 applications filed in Aug/Sep of 2013.

[vizcard]

It will all become clearer when the inventory and demand data come out at the end of Q1. But in general the longer it stays at the same date or retrogresses mildly, the worse it will be for 2009ers. The additional FB though will push us in 2009.. just not sure how far.

[03March2010]

Gurus - I may be posting in the wrong place, so please point me in the right direction.

Would greatly appreciate this group's help:
Here is my situation: Applied for GC with PD of 3/3/2010, have the EAD and AP combo card valid until mid 2015. I am planning on changing jobs (in similar job codes) in coming month or so and want to take advantage of the break between jobs to travel to India. I do not expect the dates to be current for me anytime soon so I am not too concerned about USCIS picking up my file while I am out of country
Questions for this group: Can I travel between jobs (so technically I will be on no job when I enter the US (say) in 6 weeks)? Is there any requirement to have "continuous" employment while changing jobs on EAD?

What do the guru's think?

Thanks a ton!

[qesehmk]

To my knowledge, there is no such requirement to maintain a job prior to approval of GC.

Gurus - I may be posting in the wrong place, so please point me in the right direction.

Would greatly appreciate this group's help:
Here is my situation: Applied for GC with PD of 3/3/2010, have the EAD and AP combo card valid until mid 2015. I am planning on changing jobs (in similar job codes) in coming month or so and want to take advantage of the break between jobs to travel to India. I do not expect the dates to be current for me anytime soon so I am not too concerned about USCIS picking up my file while I am out of country
Questions for this group: Can I travel between jobs (so technically I will be on no job when I enter the US (say) in 6 weeks)? Is there any requirement to have "continuous" employment while changing jobs on EAD?

What do the guru's think?

Thanks a ton!

[Jagan01]

So if the people who "missed" are the ones who are predominantly filing, then they are the ones...the net total sum of porters should be no more than 400 per month. There are definitely an additional 5K filers (maybe even 6K), not 10K as you suggest. I agree with vizcard and end this by saying that this year, the date will go in 2009 for sure due to the FB spillover and the possibility that other categories may also give more.

So if the people who "missed" are the ones who are predominantly filing, then they are the ones...the net total sum of porters should be no more than 400 per month. There are definitely an additional 5K filers (maybe even 6K), not 10K as you suggest. I agree with vizcard and end this by saying that this year, the date will go in 2009 for sure due to the FB spillover and the possibility that other categories may also give more.

I am not saying that there are 10k porters. I said that 10k demand may exists prior to July 2008. Porters may be around 8k. 5-6k is the first time I-485 filers. The others would at least be another 2k. Hence porters are 8k.

It is surprising to me that people seem to stick around the figure of 300/400 porting per month. That figure is dependent upon the following:
1. Where the dates stabilize: If it becomes U then virtually 0. If it stays at June 2008 then possibly higher.
2. The candidate set: It depends upon the number of potential EB3 porters prior to the cut off date where EB2 stabilizes. For eg: There were 20k potential EB3 applicants prior to Sep 04 for most of FY2013 and these were able to hold the date and provide 300 applications. this time around the set is 30k if dates were to stay at June 2008.
3. EB3 candidates post Aug 2007: These were 0 when dates were steady at Sep 2004. They would be not zero anymore. In fact, I think there might be at least 150 per month coming from here itself.

Finally, thanks for the discussions. I was just trying to put forward that the scenario is much more problematic than what we thought it was when the Nov DD was released. If the dates move into early 2009 then I will be very very happy. But it does not appear to move much according to my calculations for the FY2014. I hope CO retrogresses the dates severely in Dec bulletin or better yet make it U.

[venkat]

There have been several people who have gone on vacations while their 485 was pending, entered using AP and had no problems whatsoever. All CBP want from you is a valid/unexpired AP showing you can be admitted as parolee. I have rarely heard CBP asking for employer letter etc.

But if you really want to be 100% safe you can choose not to tell your current employer about your new job offer that you are planning to take after your vacation.

Gurus - I may be posting in the wrong place, so please point me in the right direction.

Would greatly appreciate this group's help:
Here is my situation: Applied for GC with PD of 3/3/2010, have the EAD and AP combo card valid until mid 2015. I am planning on changing jobs (in similar job codes) in coming month or so and want to take advantage of the break between jobs to travel to India. I do not expect the dates to be current for me anytime soon so I am not too concerned about USCIS picking up my file while I am out of country
Questions for this group: Can I travel between jobs (so technically I will be on no job when I enter the US (say) in 6 weeks)? Is there any requirement to have "continuous" employment while changing jobs on EAD?

What do the guru's think?

Thanks a ton!

[cricfan]

Gurus - I may be posting in the wrong place, so please point me in the right direction.

Would greatly appreciate this group's help:
Here is my situation: Applied for GC with PD of 3/3/2010, have the EAD and AP combo card valid until mid 2015. I am planning on changing jobs (in similar job codes) in coming month or so and want to take advantage of the break between jobs to travel to India. I do not expect the dates to be current for me anytime soon so I am not too concerned about USCIS picking up my file while I am out of country
Questions for this group: Can I travel between jobs (so technically I will be on no job when I enter the US (say) in 6 weeks)? Is there any requirement to have "continuous" employment while changing jobs on EAD?

What do the guru's think?

Thanks a ton!

My PD is very close to your PD. I have used AP twice to enter US. Once before changing the job and once just after changing my job. My POE was EWR, NJ and was asked where do I work each time. They did not ask for any employer letter. just a verbal confirmation of where I worked.Everything was very smooth and even the secondary inspection did not take very long. So, my recommendation would be to have a valid job offer before going on for a vacation. But, as Q said, it is not a requirement to have continuous employment while changing jobs. I took a 3-4 days break between changing my jobs. But, I did not go outside US during that time.

[imdeng]

AFAIK your job status has nothing to do with you entering the country on an AP. AP only means that your 485 is pending. You should not have any trouble using the AP. I have known folks who entered on an AP that was about to expire in a week and they had no trouble.

Gurus - I may be posting in the wrong place, so please point me in the right direction.

Would greatly appreciate this group's help:
Here is my situation: Applied for GC with PD of 3/3/2010, have the EAD and AP combo card valid until mid 2015. I am planning on changing jobs (in similar job codes) in coming month or so and want to take advantage of the break between jobs to travel to India. I do not expect the dates to be current for me anytime soon so I am not too concerned about USCIS picking up my file while I am out of country
Questions for this group: Can I travel between jobs (so technically I will be on no job when I enter the US (say) in 6 weeks)? Is there any requirement to have "continuous" employment while changing jobs on EAD?

What do the guru's think?

Thanks a ton!

[imdeng]

Unused FB sounds good - it is factually correct, conveys all needed information, has no confusion.

I go with unused FB. Lets get other's approval too.

[bikenlalan]

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2013/...tober-23-2013/

EB-1. This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year.
EB-2 Rest of World (ROW). This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year; however, Mr. Oppenheim suggested that depending on demand he may introduce a cutoff date towards the end of the fiscal year.
EB-2 China. This category is expected to continue to move forward by approximately 3-5 weeks per month in each Visa Bulletin.
EB-2 India. This is the major headline from our meeting with Mr. Oppenheim – EB-2 India is expected to retrogress significantly – by several years back to late 2005 or early 2005 as early as the next Visa Bulletin. It is expected that EB-2 India will remain at that level (late 2004 or early 2005) until the summer of 2014. The rationale behind this severe retrogression in EB-2 India is that there is simply too much “demand” (number of pending cases caused by I-485 filings and EB-3 to EB-2 porting cases, plus adding dependents) in this category and the Visa Office has to stop the rate of new filings until USCIS and DOS are able to approve the pending cases and “clear the demand.”
EB-3 Rest of World (ROW). This category is expected to move forward significantly (up to one year) over the next one or two months to stimulate “demand” for the next several months.
EB-3 China/Philippines. Each of these two categories is expected to keep moving forward by 2 weeks per month.
EB-3 India. Unfortunately, this category continues to be oversubscribed and there is no forward movement expected in the next (December 2013) Visa Bulletin. In addition, Mr. Oppenheim indicated that a retrogression is very possible in the near future. This would be caused by the fact that there are simply too many EB-3 India applicants waiting for a visa number to become available. However, as a positive sign, as many EB-3 India applicants are porting into EB-2, there is some possibility that some EB-3 visa numbers may be “freed” simply because some EB-3 candidates will drop out of the EB-3 demand line after receiving a green card under a newly ported EB-2 category.
EB-5. Mr. Oppenheim suggested that the demand for EB-5 is on an upward trajectory and he indicated that the most recent fiscal year noted a 15% increase in EB-5 China cases. This makes it likely that there would be a cutoff date introduced towards the summer for EB-5 China (only).

[Jagan01]

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2013/...tober-23-2013/

EB-1. This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year.
EB-2 Rest of World (ROW). This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year; however, Mr. Oppenheim suggested that depending on demand he may introduce a cutoff date towards the end of the fiscal year.
EB-2 China. This category is expected to continue to move forward by approximately 3-5 weeks per month in each Visa Bulletin.
EB-2 India. This is the major headline from our meeting with Mr. Oppenheim – EB-2 India is expected to retrogress significantly – by several years back to late 2005 or early 2005 as early as the next Visa Bulletin. It is expected that EB-2 India will remain at that level (late 2004 or early 2005) until the summer of 2014. The rationale behind this severe retrogression in EB-2 India is that there is simply too much “demand” (number of pending cases caused by I-485 filings and EB-3 to EB-2 porting cases, plus adding dependents) in this category and the Visa Office has to stop the rate of new filings until USCIS and DOS are able to approve the pending cases and “clear the demand.”
EB-3 Rest of World (ROW). This category is expected to move forward significantly (up to one year) over the next one or two months to stimulate “demand” for the next several months.
EB-3 China/Philippines. Each of these two categories is expected to keep moving forward by 2 weeks per month.
EB-3 India. Unfortunately, this category continues to be oversubscribed and there is no forward movement expected in the next (December 2013) Visa Bulletin. In addition, Mr. Oppenheim indicated that a retrogression is very possible in the near future. This would be caused by the fact that there are simply too many EB-3 India applicants waiting for a visa number to become available. However, as a positive sign, as many EB-3 India applicants are porting into EB-2, there is some possibility that some EB-3 visa numbers may be “freed” simply because some EB-3 candidates will drop out of the EB-3 demand line after receiving a green card under a newly ported EB-2 category.
EB-5. Mr. Oppenheim suggested that the demand for EB-5 is on an upward trajectory and he indicated that the most recent fiscal year noted a 15% increase in EB-5 China cases. This makes it likely that there would be a cutoff date introduced towards the summer for EB-5 China (only).

Thanks for the Update... The dates retrogressing will surely lower porting...

Sports, Viz and other Gururs:
Remember my words. The porting is significantly high. All these extra numbers were porting cases. I also mentioned that this imaginative 400 per month is not true. Below is something directly from CO:
As an example, Mr. Oppenheim cited that between October 1 and October 22nd his office noted that there were approximately 800 Indian nationals who ported from EB-3 to EB-3.

Also spillover is not great from FD (EB5 and EB1 have good demand).

[Kanmani]

Thanks for the Update... The dates retrogressing will surely lower porting...

Sports, Viz and other Gururs:
Remember my words. The porting is significantly high. All these extra numbers were porting cases. I also mentioned that this imaginative 400 per month is not true. Below is something directly from CO:
As an example, Mr. Oppenheim cited that between October 1 and October 22nd his office noted that there were approximately 800 Indian nationals who ported from EB-3 to EB-3.

Also spillover is not great from FD (EB5 and EB1 have good demand).

Jagan,

This Eb3 to Eb2 porting numbers could reach the DD only if the priority date is current ( Ref my earlier posts for INA Section quote)

I would say the present high numbers denote the rush for placement in the Eb2 DD queue by the EB3ers. Otherwise, if they miss this opening, they will be stagnated in the USCIS as interfilers.

[helooo]

http://www.laborimmigration.com/2013...tober-23-2013/