So after all as I posted before date can stay as it is or move further. If porting takes high speed then later in theyear date will go back IMO.Originally Posted by erikbond101
Good luck all ppl who r waiting.
So after all as I posted before date can stay as it is or move further. If porting takes high speed then later in theyear date will go back IMO.
Good luck all ppl who r waiting.
Your assumption that "Demand Data does not have recently preadjudicated cases" may or may not be true. Starting OCT 2013, we have seen approvals for first time filers that filed in Aug 2013. Clearly these would have been preadj in or around Sept end. The demand data has data as recent as Oct 07, 2013. Hence these applicants may or may not have been figured into the demand data.
If they were in fact included then the 9000 figure looks even sweeter
what are the chances of moving dates in November 2013 Bulliten Is it will move another 2 months???????
The years from 2004 had not become current for EB3-I after 2007. Eb2-I cut off date for good part of 2013 was Sep/01/2004.
So the difference between EB3 Inventory and demand data for the years 2005, 2006, and 2007 would be porting.
EB3I Inventory Data as of 07/17/2013
2005 - 6871
2006 - 9055
2007 - 4041
Total - 19,967
EB3I Demand Data as of 10/7/2013
2005 - 6950
2006 - 8425
2007 - 2975
Total - 18,350
EB3I Difference
2005 - -79
2006 - 630
2007 - 1066
Total - 1,617
Total number of porters from May 2012 to Oct 2013 for the priority dates in years (2005 to 2007) is 1,617.
This also shows people in later years are porting that in the earlier years. Looking at these figures makes me believe 3k/year is a good conservative number to use for porting. Any comments?
8076 from July to Dec, so 924 is the remaining, which is slightly higher than half of June's 1,445. I don't think they've included very many remaining applicants, if any. However, I do agree, that in October they will clear out all applicants except for the post Jul 2007 porters, which I expect to be a lot fewer than 4 to 6K (1 to 2K is my expectation).
Sports, same thing here, it means nothing at this stage, except helping us get a little bit of handle on porting. The decrease from the July DD is 9.275K in total of which 6.825k is 2003, and the rest is porting. Of the 2.9k residual 2003 demand, 2.65k is Oct to Dec, which are not current. The rest of the applications are either still being processed, or have already been processed. If they aren't all processed this month, they get added back to next month's DD. I believe they will be processed and the VB will move forward the usual 1 week.
Now visible porting (up to Jul 2007) appears to be around 4.8k, which is lower than most of us had expected, but this hasn't yet taken out those EB3 porters that have not yet received their EB2GCs (although I don't believe that number is huge). Next month, we'll have a more complete estimate.
NSC (originally TSC, transferred to NSC on 02/13/13) |-| PD - 04/25/08 |-| MD - 01/19/12 |-| RD - 01/27/12 |-| ND - 01/31/12 |-| Check Encashed - 02/02/12 |-| NRD - 02/04/12 |-| FPND - 02/09/12 |-| FPNRD - 02/17/12 |-| FP Early Walk-In - 02/24/12 |-| EAD/AP Approval & card production notice - 03/07/12 |-| EAD/AP RD - 03/12/12 |-| EAD/AP renewal RD - 12/11/12 |-| EAD/AP renewal approval - 01/22/13 |-| 485 Approval notice - 09/04/13 |-| GC RD - 09/11/13|
The DD certainly does not have recently preadjudicated cases, there are no such cases. People were either given their GCs or they are still being processed because their applications are current. Check this post to understand better.Your assumption that "Demand Data does not have recently preadjudicated cases" may or may not be true. Starting OCT 2013, we have seen approvals for first time filers that filed in Aug 2013. Clearly these would have been preadj in or around Sept end. The demand data has data as recent as Oct 07, 2013. Hence these applicants may or may not have been figured into the demand data.
If they were in fact included then the 9000 figure looks even sweeterIn my opinion, None. There will be no QSP until Jan or Feb and even then it's highly unlikely given CO's recent track record.
If you compare the old DD instead of the old inventory, the total porting numbers increase to 3,125 (the difference attributable to CPs perhaps). Also, the reduction in 2004 numbers is also relevant because it is still porting (even if most of it happened before August 2013). That, I estimate at 1,675, and the total goes to 4,800. But like I said in my previous comment, I expect that number to go up slightly, perhaps to 5,000.
NSC (originally TSC, transferred to NSC on 02/13/13) |-| PD - 04/25/08 |-| MD - 01/19/12 |-| RD - 01/27/12 |-| ND - 01/31/12 |-| Check Encashed - 02/02/12 |-| NRD - 02/04/12 |-| FPND - 02/09/12 |-| FPNRD - 02/17/12 |-| FP Early Walk-In - 02/24/12 |-| EAD/AP Approval & card production notice - 03/07/12 |-| EAD/AP RD - 03/12/12 |-| EAD/AP renewal RD - 12/11/12 |-| EAD/AP renewal approval - 01/22/13 |-| 485 Approval notice - 09/04/13 |-| GC RD - 09/11/13|
Actually, I take back what i said earlier. The porting demand is closer to 4.8K. I was only comparing the July 2013 to Nov 2013 DDs, whereas it is more accurate to compare the Nov 2012 to Nov 2013 DDs. So, I wasn't including the 2.4K odd porting that had already happened when the EB2I dates were retrogressed between October and July.
Total porting is 4.8K. The yearly split is as follows:
2004: 1,675
2005: 1,100
2006: 1,375
2007: 650
NSC (originally TSC, transferred to NSC on 02/13/13) |-| PD - 04/25/08 |-| MD - 01/19/12 |-| RD - 01/27/12 |-| ND - 01/31/12 |-| Check Encashed - 02/02/12 |-| NRD - 02/04/12 |-| FPND - 02/09/12 |-| FPNRD - 02/17/12 |-| FP Early Walk-In - 02/24/12 |-| EAD/AP Approval & card production notice - 03/07/12 |-| EAD/AP RD - 03/12/12 |-| EAD/AP renewal RD - 12/11/12 |-| EAD/AP renewal approval - 01/22/13 |-| 485 Approval notice - 09/04/13 |-| GC RD - 09/11/13|
Are the previous demand data stored some where in this forum?
I found the demand data stored here..
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...-FY2010-FY2013
I have a theory but i'm not sure if that's even legally possible. Given the number of Oct approvals and this statement from the DD - "All eligible cases were then allocated Employment-based numbers on October 1, 2013, under the FY 2014 annual limits" - makes me wonder if CO is dipping in to the total annual quota already. I don't believe its legally allowed to issue the whole annual quota in any one quarter let alone one month but maybe CO can explain that away.
The 9000 in demand is about what should have been left if every case (give or take a few) in the demand data prior to June 15,2008 was cleared. There are probably 3-4K new applicants (incl. porting) between July 2007 and June 2008. I think the Dec / Jan demand data would give us the real picture for pre-2009 demand.
The additional 8000 visas are very interesting and a godsend. My high level projection for SOFAD is now around 14K (mostly from EB2ROW) which should clear 2008 for sure and get in to early 2009. Dates ofcourse could move further still.
now Q is whether this will happen end of Sep 2014 or QSP. Upcoming bulletin will answer that.
If it's 9k inventory before Jan 2009 and around 14k Sofad coming(Whenever).Don't the Gurus and expert think CO has to move date in order to have more inventory and also to pre adjudicate the new cases?
I agree. The reason for this is for benefit of USCIS as if they hold up these cases now for non availability of visa numbers then at end of next fiscal year they have to issue mass RFEs again. They can avoid all this by streamlining the process like this. There is no risk of overallocation to EB2I as the dates are still at June 2008.
I am not a Guru. However, I had raised the same question earlier and was told that the inventor is already available as there are many other cases pre-adj. Remember that the dates had moved to May 2010 and there have been several cases pre-adj and waiting. So no need to build inventory as such.
I am just copying and pasting what I asked Matt on Trackitt :
Looking at EB3 I inventory report from July 2013, pending inventory from Jan 2003 - Dec 2005 is 27520. Now DD shows 20550 as ending balance before jan 2006.
Looks like the numbers reduced are around 6700 which is the number of pending applications in Eb3 I before Sep 2003.
I think those are the number of SO visas EB3 I got from EB3 Row. And my conclusion is porting numbers that got approved between jan 2003 and dec 2005 are not reduced from Demand data.
So I think there are more porting numbers that are not accounted for yet
IMHO- The unknown number of 4000 is very large and it just would not be right. Same goes with unrealistically high porting numbers put forward earlier. Any variation would not be larger than 15-20% maximum.
Thanks for your reply.What I am thinking is the exact inventory before Jan 2009 and that can be known only after moving the dates to Dec 2008.I think all the visas will be consumed because there will be enough new cases before Jan09.They did not mention monthly inventory for EB2.How do we know if there is any cases pending before June 15th,2008?I am sorry but this is confusing for me?
Well for the CO inventory is the number of pre-adj cases tat he has. He does not care if May 2009 already pre-adj case gets GC before a porter from Jan 2009 can first time file I-485. So he has sufficient inventory. Almost 25000 cases he has that are part of inventory.
I think there might be a confusion in definitions
Demand - pre-adjudivated cases waiting for a visa number
Inventory - all pending cases (demand is a subset of inventory)
Viz, you are correct.
Some months back I came across with the case details of a law suit filed by EB3C Vs DoS related to annual limitation crisis, eb3c was less located in 2009 than that of their original allocation, the DoS clearly stated that they have never released additional visas over the quarterly quota in 2009 or in any of the Fiscal years.
EB3C's challenge was to get back the lost numbers from the following year's spillover, but as per DoS's defense EB3C was less allocated because of the applicants' fault, so that the lost numbers cannot be retrieved in the following FY.
PS: I miss Spec here as I am not 100% sure whether the less allocated year was 2009 or 2010. Spec come back man!
My prediction for visa bulletin for this month is that dates definitely wont retrogress.
Because, per DD there are 9000 pending eb2 I cases prior to Jan 1 2009
Per the last released employment inventory report, just summing up Jun to Dec 2008 itself gives around 9500 cases. So my understanding is that DOS assumes 99% of
cases with PD Jun 2008 has been issued GC (for folks who had applied earlier).
Of course thousands of folks with PD in 2007 - jun 2008 would have applied when the flood gates opened in aug , but as mentioned earlier, they will mostly not show up anywhere until Dec when second quarter starts.
So this quarter will mostly stay in Jun 2008 or move 1 month or so. Just my guess.
Agree with you seattlet that basis for retrogression doesn't exist. However don't discount the effect of ongoing portings. If they are more than 300 per month then that is sufficient a reason to retrogress to a date where they will be less than 300 a month.
That's how DOS has been operating for last 2 years as far as EB2IC is concerned.
p.s. - So in that sense portings becomes basis for retrogression if any.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
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Sport - kudos to you for posting this. Indeed mumbai consulate http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html has dates unchanged for EB2I.
Basically this confirms that most backlog until Jun 2008 is indeed cleared for EB2I.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
May be that's a wrong assumption. May be they used 2013 numbers and the act of sending out notices happened in October.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
I Second that undoubtedly. This scenario is the repetition of 2011.
On #1 - yes indeed. But that doesn't preclude the possibility that the act of adjusting the residence spills over into October.
On #2 - It is otherwise somewhat likely (that they would allocate 3 times monthly quota in first week of october). Given the shutdown thought I would call it absolutely impossible.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
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