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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

  1. #2001

  2. #2002
    Oracle tackle's Avatar
    Join Date
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    Location
    Lexington, KY
    Posts
    206
    Btw, in case this hasn't been posted yet, Oct 2013 VB is out: http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_6062.html . EB2-I dates remain unchanged (15JUN08).
    TSC | PD: 09/07/07 | RD: 11/01/11 | ND: 11/02/11
    FP Notice: 11/17/11 | FP Appt: 12/08/11 | FP early walk-in completed: 11/21/11
    EAD/AP: Approved 12/28/11, Received 12/31/11
    RFE#1: Notification 08/28/12, Received Notices 09/04/12 (submit BC),

    RFE#1: Responded 10/12/2012, Received "RFE response received" notice: 10/16/2012

    RFE#2: Notification 06/14/2013, Received Notices 06/16/2013 (submit EVL/EAD),
    RFE#2: Responded 06/19/2013.
    I-485 Approved (Primary & Dependent): 10/07/13


  3. #2003
    EB2 China has moved ahead by a month. Wondering if the CO is using the monthly quota to move the dates forward.

  4. #2004
    As expected Oct 2013 bulletin doesn't show retrogression. As the Sep and Oct data comes in the dates might retrogress. As of now i think the chances of retrogression in Nov are 50-50. It all depends on how well USCIS clears EB2I backlog through the dates that are current.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  5. #2005
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    As expected Oct 2013 bulletin doesn't show retrogression. As the Sep and Oct data comes in the dates might retrogress. As of now i think the chances of retrogression in Nov are 50-50. It all depends on how well USCIS clears EB2I backlog through the dates that are current.
    This is definitely good news for people like me waiting after being Current. This buys in more time to get approvals. Also this makes it no numbers get wasted if they can allocate the numbers ahead of time.
    TSC || PD: May-2008 || RD: 04-Jan-2012 || ND: 06-Jan-2012 || FP: 20-Mar-2012|| EAD/AP: 13-Feb-2012 || I-485: Waiting... Waiting...

  6. #2006
    Quote Originally Posted by pdmay2008 View Post
    Also this makes it no numbers get wasted...
    That's a good point pdmay. I tend to believe (although I can't prove it) that DOS/USCIS continue to approve cases using prior year number into Oct. Thus it gives me some comfort to see dates not moving back - which would mean - the visas are not going waste now. But as I said - I don't really have proof for my theory except that in prior years i have noticed very large october approvals.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  7. #2007
    Guru
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    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    As expected Oct 2013 bulletin doesn't show retrogression..
    Great news !!

  8. #2008
    Sophomore
    Join Date
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    Location
    Dallas area
    Posts
    27
    Gurus, assuming that all FY 2013 visa numbers for EB2I are used up by September, how many visa numbers will be available for EB2I in October?

    I am trying to assess my chances of being approved in October, in case I do not get approved in September.

    PD: March 11, 2008. TSC.

  9. #2009
    Quote Originally Posted by pseudonym View Post
    Gurus, assuming that all FY 2013 visa numbers for EB2I are used up by September, how many visa numbers will be available for EB2I in October?

    I am trying to assess my chances of being approved in October, in case I do not get approved in September.

    PD: March 11, 2008. TSC.
    EB2I will get approx. 1/12th of 28.2% of 7% of 140K. That's approx 230 visas.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  10. #2010
    Do any of the knowledgeable folks here believe there could be mechanisms in place that allow the assignment of 2013 visa numbers to pending cases while they physically get approved in Oct 2013?
    i.e. is there any way the DOS Visa Bureau may be able to assign visa numbers to outstanding cases in Sep 2013 while they may not get approved/issued until October?

    Just wondering if that's one of the possible reasons behind maintaining the same cutoff date for EB2I going into FY 2014...

    Many thanks

  11. #2011

  12. #2012
    Finally got approved, after 6.5 years long wait.
    NSC || PD: Dec 2007 || RD: Dec 2, 2011 || ND: Dec 5,2011 || EAD/AP approval : Jan 17,2012 || EAD/AP Card RD: Jan 21,2012 || FP ND: Jan 16,2012 || FP RD: Jan 21,2012 ||.

  13. #2013
    Quote Originally Posted by ThisSummer View Post
    Finally got approved, after 6.5 years long wait.
    Congratulations ThisSummer.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  14. #2014
    Gurus,

    What do you think of the latest visa bulletin ? For Eb2-I and EB3-I no movement forward or backward. How do you explain that.
    The only explanation I can come up is CO is on vacation, so asked his staff to copy paste from earlier bulletin :-)

  15. #2015
    Any reason why Trackitt data on Q forum is not being updated since Sep5th 2013?

  16. #2016
    Quote Originally Posted by ThisSummer View Post
    Finally got approved, after 6.5 years long wait.
    Congrats this summer....

  17. #2017
    Quote Originally Posted by redsox2009 View Post
    Any reason why Trackitt data on Q forum is not being updated since Sep5th 2013?
    Spec may be away on vacation... I guess that is the reason...

  18. #2018
    Quote Originally Posted by redsox2009 View Post
    Any reason why Trackitt data on Q forum is not being updated since Sep5th 2013?
    Here is what I pulled from trackitt....

    Approvals in Sept as of today:
    June 08 - 18
    May 08 - 36
    Apr 08 - 51
    Mar 08 - 29
    Feb 08 - 18
    Jan 08 - 17
    Dec 07 - 03
    Nov 07 - 08
    Oct 07 - 02
    Sep 07 - 04
    Aug 07 - 04
    Pre Aug 07 - 38

    Total Approvals - 228

  19. #2019

    Waiting...Waiting

    Hello All Gurus

    By far this has been the most nerve wrecking waiting period in my life...my PD - 05/14/08 - Eb2 I - TSC with RD - 03/14/12.
    I am guessing they are processing based on RD's order and thats why im getting delayed. I have no idea how long this wait is going to be. I hope it ends soon and wish the same for everyone who is on the same boat.

    With VB showing dates being 15 Jun 08 for Oct as well - do i stand a good chance of getting my GC before end of October? Also what is the criteria in processing 485 applciations? i saw lot of approvals in TSC in May and June08.

    please share some thoughts
    thanks

    Quote Originally Posted by Jagan01 View Post
    Here is what I pulled from trackitt....

    Approvals in Sept as of today:
    June 08 - 18
    May 08 - 36
    Apr 08 - 51
    Mar 08 - 29
    Feb 08 - 18
    Jan 08 - 17
    Dec 07 - 03
    Nov 07 - 08
    Oct 07 - 02
    Sep 07 - 04
    Aug 07 - 04
    Pre Aug 07 - 38

    Total Approvals - 228

  20. #2020
    Quote Originally Posted by SeekingGC2013 View Post
    Hello All Gurus

    By far this has been the most nerve wrecking waiting period in my life...my PD - 05/14/08 - Eb2 I - TSC with RD - 03/14/12.
    I am guessing they are processing based on RD's order and thats why im getting delayed. I have no idea how long this wait is going to be. I hope it ends soon and wish the same for everyone who is on the same boat.

    With VB showing dates being 15 Jun 08 for Oct as well - do i stand a good chance of getting my GC before end of October? Also what is the criteria in processing 485 applciations? i saw lot of approvals in TSC in May and June08.

    please share some thoughts
    thanks
    I am not a guru but still will reply...

    There have been discussions in the past on the topic of PD vs RD. It should be in the current thread or in thread of Aug approvals
    http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...e-with-details

    Several opinions between the gurus like Q, Spec, Kanmani, Indiani, ...

    Many supportive documentations as well... Please read through the posts to conclude for yourself...

    General consensus according to me is:
    1. People who haven't received RFE
    2. PD
    3. RD

    However, many would say it is 2) RD and 3) PD.

  21. #2021

    Waiting--waiting

    Thanks for forwarding the thread.

    I qualify under the 1) No RFE category.



    Quote Originally Posted by Jagan01 View Post
    I am not a guru but still will reply...

    There have been discussions in the past on the topic of PD vs RD. It should be in the current thread or in thread of Aug approvals
    http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...e-with-details

    Several opinions between the gurus like Q, Spec, Kanmani, Indiani, ...

    Many supportive documentations as well... Please read through the posts to conclude for yourself...

    General consensus according to me is:
    1. People who haven't received RFE
    2. PD
    3. RD

    However, many would say it is 2) RD and 3) PD.

  22. #2022
    Quote Originally Posted by Jagan01 View Post
    I am not a guru but still will reply..

    Several opinions between the gurus like Q, Spec, Kanmani, Indiani, ..

    General consensus according to me is:
    1. People who haven't received RFE
    2. PD
    3. RD

    However, many would say it is 2) RD and 3) PD.
    Jagan...I'm waiting on when you can feel that I will be greened.. remember you promised you will let me know as you predicted Indiani...:-)

    Lol.. please say tomorrow ..

    Mine no rfe... apr.28 pd, ppl after my pd lot of em got grn..rd 19 jan 2012.. same as pedro.. he got 2nd day...mine waiting...

  23. #2023
    Quote Originally Posted by RogerFederer View Post
    Jagan...I'm waiting on when you can feel that I will be greened.. remember you promised you will let me know as you predicted Indiani...:-)

    Lol.. please say tomorrow ..

    Mine no rfe... apr.28 pd, ppl after my pd lot of em got grn..rd 19 jan 2012.. same as pedro.. he got 2nd day...mine waiting...
    @RogerFederer - Looks like we share the receipt date and the fate. am still waiting too...

    @Gurus - Just wanted to check if anyone has done any analysis or estimates on how many GCs have been used up so far (in Aug/Sep) for EB2I? And how much are remaining? Looking at the pace of approvals, looks like there is a higher chance of GCs running out then getting wasted - is that correct?

    Thanks for your thoughts in advance!!

    -- (Patiently waiting) Techsavvy1973

  24. #2024
    Quote Originally Posted by Jagan01 View Post
    I am not a guru but still will reply...

    There have been discussions in the past on the topic of PD vs RD. It should be in the current thread or in thread of Aug approvals
    http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...e-with-details

    Several opinions between the gurus like Q, Spec, Kanmani, Indiani, ...

    Many supportive documentations as well... Please read through the posts to conclude for yourself...

    General consensus according to me is:
    1. People who haven't received RFE
    2. PD
    3. RD

    However, many would say it is 2) RD and 3) PD.
    I don't see any specific pattern followed, there are plenty of approvals which will disprove all the theory. I guess the "luck" should be first one. You can improve your luck with some triggers like SR etc. That is what i am seeing now.

  25. #2025
    Quote Originally Posted by RogerFederer View Post
    Jagan...I'm waiting on when you can feel that I will be greened.. remember you promised you will let me know as you predicted Indiani...:-)

    Lol.. please say tomorrow ..

    Mine no rfe... apr.28 pd, ppl after my pd lot of em got grn..rd 19 jan 2012.. same as pedro.. he got 2nd day...mine waiting...
    Hey Rogerfederer,

    If I knew when you would get GC then I would surely tell you.

    It was just one coincidence about Indiani... I do not know when anyone is getting greened.

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