EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[gctracker]

The current pending inventory is well into 2013 as compared to pending inventory that was released in Jan. So, if we just compare clearances for EB1 till end of 2012, it almost cleared 5K between 3 months span. Probably decent rate of approvals for EB1. EB2-WW also cleared almost in the similar lines. For EB2I, while moving the PD for July VB, with SO still to play its role, I am just thinking CO will start from where he has left before the the PD went "U", which is 15-AUG-2007 or he would start with 01-SEP-2007, by jumping 3 years, but may not be less than that. That would be a good starting point for him to play the game which he can control in a better way. Then depending on the porting cases and SO left, that he could see by then, probably the August VB could be anywhere between Jan'08 - Mar'08. But certainly this Fiscal Year has been the worst by far in terms of PD movement so far, with porting factor playing a major disastrous role for the first time for EB2I. By keeping the PD standstill, looks like CO wants to make sure that the "original" EB2I applicants should get a majority of the SO at least before this FY ends. Traditionally when the FY ends every year, from the recent years data, we can see that, India and China EB2 mostly end up with same PD. Unless we get some indication in July VB and DD, this theory may prove wrong this time.

[vizcard]

The current pending inventory is well into 2013 as compared to pending inventory that was released in Jan. So, if we just compare clearances for EB1 till end of 2012, it almost cleared 5K between 3 months span. Probably decent rate of approvals for EB1. EB2-WW also cleared almost in the similar lines. For EB2I, while moving the PD for July VB, with SO still to play its role, I am just thinking CO will start from where he has left before the the PD went "U", which is 15-AUG-2007 or he would start with 01-SEP-2007, by jumping 3 years, but may not be less than that. That would be a good starting point for him to play the game which he can control in a better way. Then depending on the porting cases and SO left, that he could see by then, probably the August VB could be anywhere between Jan'08 - Mar'08. But certainly this Fiscal Year has been the worst by far in terms of PD movement so far, with porting factor playing a major disastrous role for the first time for EB2I. By keeping the PD standstill, looks like CO wants to make sure that the "original" EB2I applicants should get a majority of the SO at least before this FY ends. Traditionally when the FY ends every year, from the recent years data, we can see that, India and China EB2 mostly end up with same PD. Unless we get some indication in July VB and DD, this theory may prove wrong this time.

I don't think CO really cares about porting vs regular EB2I. For him its still backlog that needs to be cleared. My sense is that he will attempt to clear all backlog up to July 2007 first and then use any remaining SOFAD in small movements to clear rest of 2007 and then early 2008. Dont be surprised is the Sept VB becomes "U" for EB2I.

Also, it is unlikely that India and China will end with the same PD. China can move far head just with their regular allocation. EB2I might still be stuck in the early part of 2008..China for sure will be in Q3/Q4 2008.

This FY has been horrible for movement but thankfully we got the FB overflow which really is a life saver ..especially for the 2007 folks. The PD+5 yrs rule of thumb doesn't apply anymore for the 2007 and mid-2008 folks.

[gctracker]

If my reading is correct, with 'rough' comparison of pending inventory data of May 2009 and May 2010, and PD movement in the last 4 months of those FYs, with regards to EB2I, looks like the SO came into play with approximately 0%-51%-29%-20% ratio in 2009, and 44%-44%-12%-0% ratio in 2010. So SO allocation was a gradual decline towards FYs end. No statistical data available to dig into prior years similarly. We can't be sure on if the strategy would be the same this time, but chances are high as SO allocation 'decline' patter seems similar. So we can look forward to a major jump for July VB, followed by baby steps in August and September gradually. Certainly FB overflow could be of some help, but not sure on how much steam is left in it, as part of it could have already been used for multiple categories.

[Kanmani]

When is a Consular Processed Immigrant Visa Applicant Documentarily Qualified ?

http://travel.state.gov/visa/laws/te...rams_1541.html

"An applicant is considered to be documentarily qualified when two facets of the processing procedure have been completed:

(1) The alien has returned Form DS-2001, Instructions for Immigrant Visa Applicants, and declared that all of the required documents have been obtained, or has otherwise notified post or NVC that they are prepared for interview; and

(2) The post has completed local clearances, and clearance requests for other posts, or has reason to believe that they will be completed before a visa number will be available for the applicant"

My observations,

The processing procedures of consular posts differs country to country.

Only Consular Posts are involved in getting visa numbers (Automated ?) not NVC.
http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/87859.pdf

CP issuing the immigrant visa are instructing the applicant to enter US before 6 months or else return the visa packet to the consular so as to use the visa to others eligible ( from diff document)

[vizcard]

Q/Spec/Matt / others...

Help me understand why the inventory numbers and demand numbers for EB2I are so close to each other? Does that mean that almost all the inventory has been pre-adjudicated?

Also, how does porting fit in to inventory numbers (if at all) ?

[sandyn16]

Reading the calculations posted here, everyone seems to talk about where the dates will end by September? what does this mean for July? Does this mean in July there will be less movement ( test the waters type) or big movement? Any predictions?

[ramakrpb]

Kanmani,

A question regarding Consular Processing for EB2I - is it necessary for the beneficiary to be employed with the same employer who filed I140/GC at the time of interview. After GC is approved at consular post, of course the beneficiary will be joining back the same employer in the US. But the question is regarding the interim period.

Thanks,
R

[vizcard]

Reading the calculations posted here, everyone seems to talk about where the dates will end by September? what does this mean for July? Does this mean in July there will be less movement ( test the waters type) or big movement? Any predictions?

Depends on how you define big movement. If we have any movement it will not exceed July 2007.

[Kanmani]

Kanmani,

A question regarding Consular Processing for EB2I - is it necessary for the beneficiary to be employed with the same employer who filed I140/GC at the time of interview. After GC is approved at consular post, of course the beneficiary will be joining back the same employer in the US. But the question is regarding the interim period.

Thanks,
R

Not at all.
GC is for future employment holds true for both Adjustment of Status and CP.

[sandyn16]

Do we think there are chances of crossing July 2006?

[Kanmani]

Q/Spec/Matt / others...

Help me understand why the inventory numbers and demand numbers for EB2I are so close to each other? Does that mean that almost all the inventory has been pre-adjudicated?

Also, how does porting fit in to inventory numbers (if at all) ?

Let me try to answer this,

All inventory numbers are not pre-adjudicated.
All Demand Data numbers are pre-adjudicated.
Porting numbers in my understanding remain as EB3 in the inventory.

[Kanmani]

Spec, Where is that post

Am I correct in #1670 ?

[vizcard]

Let me try to answer this,

All inventory numbers are not pre-adjudicated.
All Demand Data numbers are pre-adjudicated.
Porting numbers in my understanding remain as EB3 in the inventory.

I get the first two. but if the two numbers are close to equal i.e. demand ~= inventory that implies that almost all Eb2I 485s are pre-adjudicated. That seemed a little odd to me ... but maybe its true.

As far as EB3 goes, how would a porter be in EB3 inventory if the upgrade is already done and its just waiting for an EB2 visa to be avialable. I don't understand the mechanics or protocol here so perhaps someone can help me with that.

[vizcard]

Do we think there are chances of crossing July 2006?

In July..probably... by Sept- 100%

[Kanmani]

I get the first two. but if the two numbers are close to equal i.e. demand ~= inventory that implies that almost all Eb2I 485s are pre-adjudicated. That seemed a little odd to me ... but maybe its true.

As far as EB3 goes, how would a porter be in EB3 inventory if the upgrade is already done and its just waiting for an EB2 visa to be avialable. I don't understand the mechanics or protocol here so perhaps someone can help me with that.

I differ from others here, whenever there is retrogression, a porting case is not upgraded to EB2 . I think only the upgraded I-140 and request for change of category documents are documented .

Lets see what is in Spec's mind.

PS: I recall from memory, Q&A session with USCIS, ombudman repeatedly adviced them to remove the EB3 porting numbers from the pending inventory on time . I didn't bookmark the page.

[vizcard]

I differ from others here, whenever there is retrogression, a porting case is not upgraded to EB2 . I think only the upgraded I-140 and request for change of category documents are documented .

Lets see what is in Spec's mind.

PS: I recall from memory, Q&A session with USCIS, ombudman repeatedly adviced them to remove the EB3 porting numbers from the pending inventory on time . I didn't bookmark the page.

Between the Jan and April inventories, EB3I has reduced by approx 750 for 2004 - 2007. That has to be porting.

[Kanmani]

Between the Jan and April inventories, EB3I has reduced by approx 750 for 2004 - 2007. That has to be porting.

Do you see those 750 added to EB2I ?

[qesehmk]

Viz

My understanding is as follows:

Inventory = documentarily qualified (but not necessarily preadjudicated) 485 cases. It doesn't include CP.
Demand Data = demand data for cases that are preadjudicated and a visa has been requested. It does include CP and 485 cases for which a visa has been requested (but not necessarily granted).

So based on this understanding if 485 numbers and demand data numbers for EB2I are close to each other then it could mean that yes indeed the cases are pre-adjudicated and ready for a visa + that CP cases for EB2I are minimal if at all.

As per ported cases, a ported case (i.e. the one filed later) may not figure in either demand data or 485 inventory for entirely different reasons:
USCIS won't ask for a separate visa. Instead they will simply change the existing visa request with new category / classification. So demand data will not be impacted overall (although category composition does change)
Whereas as per 485 inventory, if the ported category is current then the case gets approved before becoming part of 485 inventory. Only if the ported category is not current, the case will start appearing in 485 inventory as EB2 along with the corresponding EB3 case.

I know my understand may not perfect --- since none of us really know -- so consider this as a logical way of looking at things.

Q/Spec/Matt / others...

Help me understand why the inventory numbers and demand numbers for EB2I are so close to each other? Does that mean that almost all the inventory has been pre-adjudicated?

Also, how does porting fit in to inventory numbers (if at all) ?

[erikbond101]

Let me post my prediction also, I'm not a Guru but just learning along the way:


We have 11K real spill over to EB2I last year (with 4K FB visa) because EB2I ate 6K of EB2ROW last year.

This year EB2I may again have 11K spillover but 6K will go to EB2ROW (because of last year cutoff of EB2ROW). So total left SO will be 5K for EB2I.

Now with 18K FB extra visas, EB2I is going to get another 8-9K additional visa. So total will 13K-14K.

EB1 is not going to consume 40K like last year. It will give another 5K. With addition of this total SO will be 13K+5K= 18K to EB2I SO. We may have higher usage of EB4 and EB5 but additional FB visas will offset those demand.

18K spillover will be final number to EB2I.

April 13 inventory of I-485 is showing 12984 cases pending prior to May 1 2008. If we consider porting and some additional dependent visas for porters, 18K SO will clear out all case till some date in May 2008.

[helooo]

Let me post my prediction also, I'm not a Guru but just learning along the way:


We have 11K real spill over to EB2I last year (with 4K FB visa) because EB2I ate 6K of EB2ROW last year.

This year EB2I may again have 11K spillover but 6K will go to EB2ROW (because of last year cutoff of EB2ROW). So total left SO will be 5K for EB2I.

Now with 18K FB extra visas, EB2I is going to get another 8-9K additional visa. So total will 13K-14K.

EB1 is not going to consume 40K like last year. It will give another 5K. With addition of this total SO will be 13K+5K= 18K to EB2I SO. We may have higher usage of EB4 and EB5 but additional FB visas will offset those demand.

18K spillover will be final number to EB2I.

April 13 inventory of I-485 is showing 12984 cases pending prior to May 1 2008. If we consider porting and some additional dependent visas for porters, 18K SO will clear out all case till some date in May 2008.

Hi All
I counted 15,769 before July 2008.What else are we adding to them?So I thought if we have 18K coming in ,then dates should be July 2008.Is it correct or my calculations are wrong?Thanks!

[sbhagwat2000]

Do you see those 750 added to EB2I ?

Why are about 520 added to Eb2I 2004 to 2007. If the apps are not added to the EB2 Queue if dates are not current then where are these extra cases coming from ? USCIS is so inefficient that they are adding the cases that were current last year now?

[Kanmani]

Sbhagawat,

If for instance the above logic is true, then the following should be true.

Porting numbers are guesstimated around 5000 to 7500 (Matt) this FY and we have already passed a half year, then the current inventory must reflect at least 2500 to 3750 more in EB2I with the reduction of same or less in EB3.

See, I am not arguing against other's way of understanding and with no proper documentation of how porting cases are handled is available at this point of time, it is all assumption to our convenience.

I already have mentioned about this that I differ from others in this particular subject. I stop here.

[sbhagwat2000]

Sbhagawat,

If for instance the above logic is true, then the following should be true.

Porting numbers are guesstimated around 5000 to 7500 (Matt) this FY and we have already passed a half year, then the current inventory must reflect at least 2500 to 3750 more in EB2I with the reduction of same or less in EB3.

See, I am not arguing against other's way of understanding and with no proper documentation of how porting cases are handled is available at this point of time, it is all assumption to our convenience.

I already have mentioned about this that I differ from others in this particular subject. I stop here.

Well estimates can be wrong . I am basing by arguments on data in the inventory not estimates. The Fact is that numbers are increasing when dates are not current. It can either be porting applications added when dates not current or USCIS being the most inefficient body in this world. So see I am not arguing for or against anything I am just stating the facts

[MATT2012]

Q/Spec/Matt / others...

Help me understand why the inventory numbers and demand numbers for EB2I are so close to each other? Does that mean that almost all the inventory has been pre-adjudicated?

Also, how does porting fit in to inventory numbers (if at all) ?

Hi Viz,

I somehow missed your question before, I noticed only when Q answered your question.

April Inventory numbers are very close to May Demand in EB2I and EB3I. So I dont think there is a huge number of CP cases in demand.So mostly all cases are pre-adjudicated for both EB2I and EB3I. As porting happens based on an underlying approved I-140, in I-485 terms they are also pre-adjudicated, irrespective of where they are counted( EB3 Vs EB2). I am not sure how they merge an EB3 case into EB2, but from what I have observed in trackitt the approval takes around three weeks.

Then why is EB3I dropping where EB2I PD's are not current. Also why is EB2I increasing where PD is not current. EB2I increased by 584 cases where PD is not current in inventory. EB3I decreased by 1118 where PD is not current in EB2. This is just by comparing October 2012 Inventory to April 2013 inventory.

In June Demand data EB2I made a further increase where PD is not current. So I am not sure how to interpret it. The increases we see are not very close to the expected porting figures,so it is not that porting is getting reflected. All that I could think is some data cleansing is happening, and the increases and decreases is a reflection of it. Most optimistically thinking a minor percentage of porting somehow is getting reflected.

But for calculation purposes I will stick with the official version that Q stated in his reply.

Matt.

[suninphx]

Sbhagawat,

If for instance the above logic is true, then the following should be true.

Porting numbers are guesstimated around 5000 to 7500 (Matt) this FY and we have already passed a half year, then the current inventory must reflect at least 2500 to 3750 more in EB2I with the reduction of same or less in EB3.

See, I am not arguing against other's way of understanding and with no proper documentation of how porting cases are handled is available at this point of time, it is all assumption to our convenience.

I already have mentioned about this that I differ from others in this particular subject. I stop here.

Kanmani - whats your stand on this subject? Are you saying that porting numbers are getting reflected in EB2 already?