EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[Spectator]

Wow, I am a bit surprised (due to lack of knowledge about the entire process) that 2009 PD will have tough time getting GC in Sept 2015. So I guess the general assumption that GC in 4-5 years from your PD (which is even mentioned as a general rule on page 1 by Q) is no longer valid. So is it now going to be 6-7 years?

eterdone,

Sorry to be so gloomy.

I think it is almost inevitable that wait times will increase, due to the sheer number of EB2-I cases that are pending and the number of visas likely to be available.

Let me use a very simplistic extrapolation. Please don't get hung up about the actual numbers used in the example.

From the beginning of FY2013, to reach a Cut Off Date of 01JUL09 required about 32k approvals for EB2-I, if there were no other cases to account for.

However, the above does not account for porting. For the example, let's assume there are 6k extra for FY2013 and 4k for each subsequent year.

To reach the above COD would require 32+6 = 38k in one year (FY2013). Average approvals required per year = 38k.

To reach the above COD would require 32+6+4 = 42k in two years (FY2013-FY2014). Average approvals required per year = 21k.

To reach the above COD would require 32+6+4+4 = 46k in three years (FY2013-FY2015). Average approvals required per year = 15.3k.

Given the current trends, I don't see where that number would come from within the EB allocation alone.

Maybe I am just not imaginative enough.

[sbhagwat2000]

eterdone,

Sorry to be so gloomy.

I think it is almost inevitable that wait times will increase, due to the sheer number of EB2-I cases that are pending and the number of visas likely to be available.

Let me use a very simplistic extrapolation. Please don't get hung up about the actual numbers used in the example.

From the beginning of FY2013, to reach a Cut Off Date of 01JUL09 required about 32k approvals for EB2-I, if there were no other cases to account for.

However, the above does not account for porting. For the example, let's assume there are 6k extra for FY2013 and 4k for each subsequent year.

To reach the above COD would require 32+6 = 38k in one year (FY2013). Average approvals required per year = 38k.

To reach the above COD would require 32+6+4 = 42k in two years (FY2013-FY2014). Average approvals required per year = 21k.

To reach the above COD would require 32+6+4+4 = 46k in three years (FY2013-FY2015). Average approvals required per year = 15.3k.

Given the current trends, I don't see where that number would come from within the EB allocation alone.

Maybe I am just not imaginative enough.

Spec,

With the demand in EB2 WW are you changing your predictions about SOFAD and dates this year or do you thing its too early. It seems EB2 WW is slated to hit 40,000. On another note its kind of strange that with this kind of demand theres been no word from CO about a cutoff for EB2 WW

[Spectator]

Spec,

With the demand in EB2 WW are you changing your predictions about SOFAD and dates this year or do you thing its too early. It seems EB2 WW is slated to hit 40,000. On another note its kind of strange that with this kind of demand theres been no word from CO about a cutoff for EB2 WW

sbhagwat2000,

CO did mention the possibility of EB2-WW retrogression at one point, but I think that was before the extra FB visas were announced.

Unless CO "pre-allocates" extra visas to EB2-I and then runs out of visas available to EB2 as a whole, then there is no prospect of EB2-WW retrogressing, however high the numbers might realistically reach.

EB2-WW are entitled to 86% of any Fall Down from EB1 (until they reach the 7% limits themselves) and that would cover any number EB2-WW might reach.

EB2-P would be most at risk, but they have several thousand extra visas within the overall 7% limit to play with. Very high EB2-P usage would only affect the number of approvals that EB3-P could receive and still stay within the overall 7% limit.

I want to wait and watch a little longer before updating any forecast.

[sbhagwat2000]

sbhagwat2000,

CO did mention the possibility of EB2-WW retrogression at one point, but I think that was before the extra FB visas were announced.

Unless CO "pre-allocates" extra visas to EB2-I and then runs out of visas available to EB2 as a whole, then there is no prospect of EB2-WW retrogressing, however high the numbers might realistically reach.

EB2-WW are entitled to 86% of any Fall Down from EB1 (until they reach the 7% limits themselves) and that would cover any number EB2-WW might reach.

EB2-P would be most at risk, but they have several thousand extra visas within the overall 7% limit to play with. Very high EB2-P usage would only affect the number of approvals that EB3-P could receive and still stay within the overall 7% limit.

I want to wait and watch a little longer before updating any forecast.

The only place where CO is said to have talked about retro for WW is on cilaw blog. Theres no official word about it like he did for EB5 in november nor anything about it in february before FB was allocated. Any ways I see now that WW will not retrogress. But what do you think would be the final number for WW- 39000-42000? Or can it go higher than that? at 42000 WW we are looking at 3000 EB1 + 4000 EB4 and 5 = 7000 SOFAD. What are ur thoughts?

[MATT2012]

Hi Spec,

In agreement with you on the representation of countries except India is very low for a statistical prediction. But I was looking at EB1C, I did observe a big drop in I-140 approvals for the six months ended March 31st. (71 Vs 108). Thoughts??

Thank GOD, If FB spillovers were not materialized, it would have been a major disaster year, with effects far spread into following fiscals!!!

Matt,

I don't disagree with anything you have said. I am only pointing out that because the missing 3 months from FY2012 has been caught up in only 6 months, it introduces the potential for use in excess of the allocation. Like you, I wish to see what approvals over the next 1-2 months look like.

Imagine if the extra FB visas had not materialised!

I am finding EB1 very difficult to predict this year. There are very few non EB1-I approvals on Trackitt. That's a problem because non EB1-I is likely to represent 75% of total EB1 approvals. Currently, they only represent 16% of Trackitt Approvals (compared to 31% in FY2012) and it is dragging the number down to the mid 30's.

If EB1-I numbers on Trackitt are considered more representative of EB1 performance as a whole this year, then EB1 is heading for similar usage to FY2012.

I have no idea which is the correct interpretation.

[suninphx]

sbhagwat - can you please explain how did you arrive at 42K number for EB2-WW? If I am following the recent posts here correctly then 9 months demand seem to have resulted in ~25 K approvals. To reach 42k for EB2-WW this FY ..approvals need to come at ~2.8K/month. In my opinion EB2-WW will consume -35k-36k visa this FY.

[tatikonda]

Spec,

Thank you for your opinion.I was hoping that the extra visas from FB would clear a lot of 2008 cases. That looks impossible now.

From historical data, how many extra visas does EB2-I get at the minimum end? Is there such a number?

thanks!

Am I missing something here, Extra Visas from FB are not coming ? how can that we be, I thought those were from FY2012.
So how come they be wrong on it ??

Please share your thoughts, gurus !

Thanks
Tatikonda

[vizcard]

sbhagwat - can you please explain how did you arrive at 42K number for EB2-WW? If I am following the recent posts here correctly then 9 months demand seem to have resulted in ~25 K approvals. To reach 42k for EB2-WW this FY ..approvals need to come at ~2.8K/month. In my opinion EB2-WW will consume -35k-36k visa this FY.

I'm going to speculate. Its 9 months demand realized in 6 months of calendar time because of retrogression last year. So its about another 2.5K/ month for the remainder 6 months. EB2ROW could very well be 40-42K this year.

[suninphx]

I'm going to speculate. Its 9 months demand realized in 6 months of calendar time because of retrogression last year. So its about another 2.5K/ month for the remainder 6 months. EB2ROW could very well be 40-42K this year.

Thats one way to calculate. Another (very simplistic) way would be 25/9*12 ~33K

[Spectator]

Thats one way to calculate. Another (very simplistic) way would be 25/9*12 ~33K

Plus the the 3 months "missing" from FY2012.

So it would actually be 25/9*15 ~42K

Generally, September doesn't see such high approvals, so a bit lower than that maybe.

[Spectator]

Am I missing something here, Extra Visas from FB are not coming ? how can that we be, I thought those were from FY2012.
So how come they be wrong on it ??

Please share your thoughts, gurus !

Thanks
Tatikonda

Tatikonda,

There will be extra visas, but even with them, the numbers available may not clear much of PD2008.

[Spectator]

sbhagwat - can you please explain how did you arrive at 42K number for EB2-WW? If I am following the recent posts here correctly then 9 months demand seem to have resulted in ~25 K approvals. To reach 42k for EB2-WW this FY ..approvals need to come at ~2.8K/month. In my opinion EB2-WW will consume -35k-36k visa this FY.

suninphx,

In FY2012, the monthly average for EB2-WW was 2.8k over 9 months. For FY2011 it was 2.9k / month.

[suninphx]

When we consider 9 months didn't we cover those 3 months? may be I am missing something.

Also, are you saying that EB2-WW will go in next FY with 'zero' pending cases?

[Spectator]

When we consider 9 months didn't we cover those 3 months? may be I am missing something.

Also, are you saying that EB2-WW will go in next FY with 'zero' pending cases?

This year to date = 9 months worth of approvals in 6 months.

6 months of year remains.

9 + 6 = 15

Overall, over 2 FY there are still 24 months of approvals in 24 months, just split asymmetrically.

The numbers pending are rolling numbers. As the old pending cases are approved, new ones take their place. There is no question of having zero pending cases, because that would require zero processing time.

USCIS have just processed the (artificially) higher number of pending cases that built up at the end of FY2012 and the beginning of FY2013 in much the same way as they processed large numbers of EB2-I cases last year.

[Kanmani]

Spec,

Do you think Mr.Co is repeating the same as last year by over releasing the available quota, this time to Eb2WW ?

9 months worth of EB2 WW cases getting cleared in 6 months might have used the 3rd quarter allocation too, is it not?

[Spectator]

Spec,

Do you think Mr.Co is repeating the same as last year by over releasing the available quota, this time to Eb2WW ?

9 months worth of EB2 WW cases getting cleared in 6 months might have used the 3rd quarter allocation too, is it not?

Kanmani,

I don't think so.

I think CO has used under-use in other visa Categories to enable an acceleration of EB2-WW approvals.

Even within the initial EB limit of 140k, he seems to have used pretty close to the 27% limit per quarter allowed, as far as I can tell.

[Kanmani]

Can we, by any chance call this as quarterly spillover, this time allocated to Eb2ww?

[Spectator]

Can we, by any chance call this as quarterly spillover, this time allocated to Eb2ww?

Probably.

It certainly made it impossible to allocate any extra numbers to EB2-I, although I am not convinced he would have done so anyway.

Had EB2-WW not needed them, a safer strategy would have been to accelerate EB3-ROW-M-C past July 2007 earlier than he has been able to.

Allocating Fall Down beyond the 7% limit, without good information on future usage, is altogether more risky, as he found out last year.

[Kanmani]

Thanks Spec.

I think he is neither learning lessons from previous years' nor following a definitive pattern. Suspenseful!!!

I personally believe June 2009 will get through by 2014.

[MATT2012]

My thought, the controller is still within the quarterly limits or slightly exceeded. There is a possibility that more(% wise) EB2ROW registered in trackitt, due to retrogression last year. There is no way to quantify the weightage of that. Does that make sense?

Probably.

It certainly made it impossible to allocate any extra numbers to EB2-I, although I am not convinced he would have done so anyway.

Had EB2-WW not needed them, a safer strategy would have been to accelerate EB3-ROW-M-C past July 2007 earlier than he has been able to.

Allocating Fall Down beyond the 7% limit, without good information on future usage, is altogether more risky, as he found out last year.

[Spectator]

My thought, the controller is still within the quarterly limits or slightly exceeded. There is a possibility that more(% wise) EB2ROW registered in trackitt, due to retrogression last year. There is no way to quantify the weightage of that. Does that make sense?

I agree that is possible. As you say, impossible to quantify until after the event.

[vizcard]

My gut based on all the analysis and speculation so far is that when its all said and done, EB2I will get ALL of the EB1 FD but won't get any FA from EB2ROW. There is nothing concrete to suggest that anything other than normal usage is occuring (other than porting).

[gc_soon]

My gut based on all the analysis and speculation so far is that when its all said and done, EB2I will get ALL of the EB1 FD but won't get any FA from EB2ROW. There is nothing concrete to suggest that anything other than normal usage is occuring (other than porting).

vizcard,
In your guess when you say "won't get any FA from EB2ROW" - do you consider EB2ROW quota before FB spillover or adjusted figure with FB spillover?

[Spectator]

My gut based on all the analysis and speculation so far is that when its all said and done, EB2I will get ALL of the EB1 FD but won't get any FA from EB2ROW. There is nothing concrete to suggest that anything other than normal usage is occuring (other than porting).

vizcard,

To be fair, at the moment, that is what I am expecting as well, though it is subject to change.

vizcard,
In your guess when you say "won't get any FA from EB2ROW" - do you consider EB2ROW quota before FB spillover or adjusted figure with FB spillover?

gc_soon,

I can't speak for vizcard, but I am basing that on the revised allocation to EB2-WW of 38.9k. If they only had the normal 34.4k, they would exceed it comfortably.

[natvyas]

Spec - Is there any data out there which suggests that EB1 consumption is equal to or more than last year? In essence what I'm asking is if you are holding your predictions/calculations on page 1?



Regards
Nat