EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[qesehmk]

Traditionally it has been July-Aug-Sep i.e. last quarter of a USCIS fiscal. This year we expect it that way. Last year was exception when we saw it oct-nov-dec-Jan and then stopped feb onwards.

So,the SOFAD will only apply in June 2013 or it can be in earlier also?

[everydayout]

Hello Folks,

I'm a new member of this forum... Thanks for providing very useful analysis on the GC predictions and processes backed by stats and facts. I'm glad that I got introduced to this forum through some other forums.
I have gone through predictions for EB2I in the first page and understand that the expectation is that it can move to anywhere between Jul 2008 to early 2009.
My case was originally filed in EB3I Oct 2007. (So I-485 is not yet filed). Recently my EB2 PERM and I-140 got approved. USCIS did not port the date. We sent one more request to port the date. So I'm expecting that I'll be able to file I-485 between Jul-Sep under EB2I using Oct 2007 PD when quarterly spillover takes into effect.
If the I-485 is still in process when the current quota year finishes by Sep 2013, What will be the PD on Oct 2013? Will it go back to some old date similar to what happened this year?

[veni001]

Hello Folks,

I'm a new member of this forum... Thanks for providing very useful analysis on the GC predictions and processes backed by stats and facts. I'm glad that I got introduced to this forum through some other forums.
I have gone through predictions for EB2I in the first page and understand that the expectation is that it can move to anywhere between Jul 2008 to early 2009.
My case was originally filed in EB3I Oct 2007. (So I-485 is not yet filed). Recently my EB2 PERM and I-140 got approved. USCIS did not port the date. We sent one more request to port the date. So I'm expecting that I'll be able to file I-485 between Jul-Sep under EB2I using Oct 2007 PD when quarterly spillover takes into effect.
If the I-485 is still in process when the current quota year finishes by Sep 2013, What will be the PD on Oct 2013? Will it go back to some old date similar to what happened this year?

everydayout,
Welcome to the forum, depending on how far EB2I PD will move by Sept 2013, starting OCT 2013 EB2I will retrogress. It could be as far back as 2004 or 2007, depends on no. of cases pending between those dates and offcourse porting numbers as well.

[idiotic]

That should be around Feb 2009 assuming 21K normal SOFAD + 19K FB spillover. Now - if we assume 75% of that becomes reality - that still means Sep 2008. So all in all 2013 is going to be a good year.

How do you guys think CO will build next round of inventory so as not to waste visa numbers for FY2014? since 21k+19k will wipe out most of the existing inventory.

[qesehmk]

If history is any precedence - he will do it in haphazard manner like he did in 2007 and 2012 ie he will move dates forward and take in a boatload of applications and then take them back suddenly.

p.s. - Still there was difference between 2007 and 2012. In 2007 the dates just moved forward in a wild swing and came back immediately in a month or two. In 2012 he kept on moving dates for almost 5 months. But in either case the point is - the movement of dates will always be more than necessary to ensure he gets a large number of applications.

How do you guys think CO will build next round of inventory so as not to waste visa numbers for FY2014? since 21k+19k will wipe out most of the existing inventory.

[longwait100]

If history is any precedence - he will do it in haphazard manner like he did in 2007 and 2012 ie he will move dates forward and take in a boatload of applications and then take them back suddenly.

p.s. - Still there was difference between 2007 and 2012. In 2007 the dates just moved forward in a wild swing and came back immediately in a month or two. In 2012 he kept on moving dates for almost 5 months. But in either case the point is - the movement of dates will always be more than necessary to ensure he gets a large number of applications.

Q, Isn't 2013 situation different though since CO should have a better visibility of the EB2I backlog based on the DD numbers unlike 2007 (when there used to be no published DD) or 2012 (when the EB2I 485 pending inventory was actually approaching negligible levels)?

[Spectator]

How do you guys think CO will build next round of inventory so as not to waste visa numbers for FY2014? since 21k+19k will wipe out most of the existing inventory.

I suspect that 40k is too optimistic.

I think there will be sufficient EB2-I cases left that CO won't have to think about topping up the Inventory until at least FY2015.

[druvraj]

I have funny feeling that for June bulletin, CO will start the push and keep September bulletin quite for any eventualities. Just a hunch. So I am eagerly waiting for May 1-2nd week.

[qesehmk]

DD was not published so - we didn't have visibility. DD is CO's data so he always had the visibility. The 2007 movement was because of some internal conflicts between agencies as far as I can tell. That way DoS pushed USCIS to act better on their pipeline. Whereas the 2012 movement was proactive pipeline buidling by DoS. However in both cases the movement went much beyond what was really necessary.

So my point is as a policy USCIS and DoS should always ensure 1 year of pipeline. Make that 8 months or 16 months depending on your appetite. But the principle is to have sufficient numbers so that when SOFAD is available, visas dont get wasted. And just move the dates for a month in October , 1 year ahead of the current date. It's such a simple philosophy and rule that will ensure fairness. But CO makes all these haphazard movements like going into 2009 and then swinging back to 2004. It's just plain stupid.

That's why I said that looking at the history I am sure that the movement will be jerky again whenever the dates move into 2009.

Although I am not as skeptical as Spec, I am also not very bullish on dates moving into 2009. But I am reasonably confident that if FB spillover is utilized then backlog through 2008 Sep should be cleared.

Does that answer your question? Sorry for this long winded answer.

Q, Isn't 2013 situation different though since CO should have a better visibility of the EB2I backlog based on the DD numbers unlike 2007 (when there used to be no published DD) or 2012 (when the EB2I 485 pending inventory was actually approaching negligible levels)?

[itwasntme]

Hello all,

I just was introduced to this forum by a friend of mine. I am surprised that i missed the buzz on this forum all these years. My PD is May 2007 in EB2I. My 485 is pending for more than an year now. I almost lost the hope of getting GC this fiscal year and tried to keep the GC topic in the back burner until I heard about spill over. I just got off the phone with an L2 officer to know if my case is pre adjudicated to which she said it is preadjudicated last year. If I may ask, as my Fingerprints, background checks,medical reports etc..might have got expired, Do I have to get these again, once PD is current ? Hopefully, the predictions and calculations come true.

[Spectator]

Although I am not as skeptical as Spec, I am also not very bullish on dates moving into 2009. But I am reasonably confident that if FB spillover is utilized then backlog through 2008 Sep should be cleared.

That's why I don't really expect any movements to create a new Inventory until FY2015.

Even movement through September 2008 in FY2013 would leave 23k known numbers left in the EB2-I Inventory. Add a few k more for porting in FY2014 and it probably means the Inventory won't approach exhaustion until FY2015.

Only when the current Inventory is nearly empty can CO move Cut Off Dates beyond 01MAY10. Until then, he would always have more qualified cases than available visas if he did so.

[longwait100]

Q, I understand your point and hope your prediction comes out to be true as I my PD of Aug 2007 didn't get picked up during last year's random EB2I approvals.

The point that I was trying to make in my earlier post was that, clearly CO has a better visibility of the EB2I pre-adjudicated 485 applications sitting with the USCIS and by Q4, he should also have a better understanding of the total spillover to EB2I. So if CO applies his arithmetic lessons correctly, he should be able to determine where the cut-off dates should line out by the end of fiscal 2013.

[qesehmk]

Absolutely. At the end of 2013 the dates are not moving beyond where they last moved. The best case for dates to go beyond where they already have been is Jun-Sep 2014. As Spec said above - it could very well be 2015 season.

p.s. - Unless of course CIR happens. And that will change everything positively!

Q, I understand your point and hope your prediction comes out to be true as I my PD of Aug 2007 didn't get picked up during last year's random EB2I approvals.

The point that I was trying to make in my earlier post was that, clearly CO has a better visibility of the EB2I pre-adjudicated 485 applications sitting with the USCIS and by Q4, he should also have a better understanding of the total spillover to EB2I. So if CO applies his arithmetic lessons correctly, he should be able to determine where the cut-off dates should line out by the end of fiscal 2013.

[qesehmk]

welcome itwasntme. Your name makes my imagination go wild. But that aside .. i can tell you my experience that once I did everything in 2007 .. uscis never bothered me and directly gave me my GC in 2011. That's it. Wish you good luck.

Hello all,

I just was introduced to this forum by a friend of mine. I am surprised that i missed the buzz on this forum all these years. My PD is May 2007 in EB2I. My 485 is pending for more than an year now. I almost lost the hope of getting GC this fiscal year and tried to keep the GC topic in the back burner until I heard about spill over. I just got off the phone with an L2 officer to know if my case is pre adjudicated to which she said it is preadjudicated last year. If I may ask, as my Fingerprints, background checks,medical reports etc..might have got expired, Do I have to get these again, once PD is current ? Hopefully, the predictions and calculations come true.

[chewbaca]

Q/Spec/Other Gurus

My EB2I Priority date is Jan 2008 - My I140 was on appeal and the appeal was upheld last year (2012) around June/July - By that time it was too late to file I 485 for the dates had retrogressed already. Do you have an idea on when the current date will reach Jan 2008 for EB2I again and will there be enough numbers available so that I actually get greened in this calendar year?

[itwasntme]

Thanks much! Atleast I dont have to go through the process again. Part of your response "Your name makes my imagination go wild" made my imagination go wild to think what might be going in your head. ..LOL.

[dec2007]

Absolutely. At the end of 2013 the dates are not moving beyond where they last moved. The best case for dates to go beyond where they already have been is Jun-Sep 2014. As Spec said above - it could very well be 2015 season.

p.s. - Unless of course CIR happens. And that will change everything positively!

Q, I received RFE on 485. Nothing major, they have asked copies of passport and my wife's traveled dates. RFE is still pending since May 2012. Let us say in July Bulletin the dates move to Jan 2008. How long it will normally take for RFE to be cleared and assign GC to me. My PD is Dec 31, 2007. I'm just concerned dates might retrogress before my RFE is cleared and GC. Need to make very important decisions at the end of this year..

Thank you Q.

[idiotic]

I suspect that 40k is too optimistic.

I think there will be sufficient EB2-I cases left that CO won't have to think about topping up the Inventory until at least FY2015.

Thanks a lot Spec for taking the time to respond.

[qesehmk]

Dec2007, i think normally this RFE should be cleared within a few weeks since you responded. July is too far out in future. So I don't see any reason to worry. you should get yours soon! All the best!

Q, I received RFE on 485. Nothing major, they have asked copies of passport and my wife's traveled dates. RFE is still pending since May 2012. Let us say in July Bulletin the dates move to Jan 2008. How long it will normally take for RFE to be cleared and assign GC to me. My PD is Dec 31, 2007. I'm just concerned dates might retrogress before my RFE is cleared and GC. Need to make very important decisions at the end of this year..

Thank you Q.

[qesehmk]

Chewbaca / all others - pl read headers and if that doesn't answer your question then only post a question.

Q/Spec/Other Gurus

My EB2I Priority date is Jan 2008 - My I140 was on appeal and the appeal was upheld last year (2012) around June/July - By that time it was too late to file I 485 for the dates had retrogressed already. Do you have an idea on when the current date will reach Jan 2008 for EB2I again and will there be enough numbers available so that I actually get greened in this calendar year?

[gtyagi]

With an April 2008 PD, since you don't appear to have applied for your I485 in Jan 2012, I take it your original application was in EB3?

Your PD will likely become current anytime between June and September 2013. It's hard to say exactly when. You can file your I140 and I485 concurrently only if the dates are current. If they aren't and aren't likely to be (at any point you will have between 20 and 50 days of visibility) you would be better off filing the I140 via premium processing while keeping your I485 application ready.

The I140 application is really your employer's application, although it will require some information on your part. Ask your lawyer for what exactly they need that they don't already have (I had to provide my resume, details of all entries and exits from the US, employment confirmation from all my prior employers, etc, although I think a lot of it was overkill).

For the I485 application, check out this thread for information on what you will need: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...=1273#post1273

If I were you, I'd also find the civil surgeon now and book an appointment for the 15th of the next month, and start to gather my vaccination records. If the dates don't move forward sufficiently for any particular VB, push the appointment out to the next month.

Thanks Pedro. It is really helpful. My PD April 2008 was for EB2. The delay in PERM filing from my new employer brought me to this situation. Murthy is filing for it. So, if labor gets approved in April 2013, I may still have some time to do the I-140 in premium processing and wait for dates to get current in June - September. If I-140 is pending, can I still file for I-485 as soon as dates become current?
Any specific documents for my spouse for I-485?
I also had some unauthorized employment. At what time I will have to file 245K? I have entered US legally after that mishap.
Response is greatly appreciated.
Thanks

[chewbaca]

Q,
Sorry if I asked a redundant question. I did not know everything was updated in the header. Based on what I read in the header - and please forgive my ignorance if I am missing the point - posted by Spec all EB2 by July 2008 will be cleared - does that mean Greened/ I am not even 485 filed / that's why the question.

[ksur23]

There is a lot of discussion around where the dates would be at end of FY 2013. How long would it stay put after cut-off reaches mid-2008 before retrogression takes place?

My PD is Jan 2009, let's for a minute assume CO pushes it to Feb 2009 by September 2013 (very miniscule likelihood I know), the result would be a big increase in demand and CO will want to retrogress - what is the window before it goes back to 2004 or 05 as it inevitably will.

Also once retrogressed how long before it's back to 08,09 cut-off in 2014?

I know my questions here might come across as too eager but I'd appreciate any intelligent theories...thanks!

[gcpursuit]

I have a question regarding Consular Processing. My PD is June 2009 and I did not file I-485 since I was changing jobs. I know it wouldn't get current anytime soon but just wanted to plan. If CO moves priority dates from June to Sep next year and retrogresses in October, is Consualr Processing risky when compared to I-485.

What is the advantage of going the I-485 route since I am yet to file it and its not pre-adjudicated?

[qesehmk]

chewbaca - if don't have a 485 filed then that will take some time to process - so your worst case probably would be sometime next year - hopefully prior to March 2014. But if it is already filed by Jun 2013 then you should get GC by Sep 2013.

Q,
Sorry if I asked a redundant question. I did not know everything was updated in the header. Based on what I read in the header - and please forgive my ignorance if I am missing the point - posted by Spec all EB2 by July 2008 will be cleared - does that mean Greened/ I am not even 485 filed / that's why the question.

There is a lot of discussion around where the dates would be at end of FY 2013. How long would it stay put after cut-off reaches mid-2008 before retrogression takes place?

My PD is Jan 2009, let's for a minute assume CO pushes it to Feb 2009 by September 2013 (very miniscule likelihood I know), the result would be a big increase in demand and CO will want to retrogress - what is the window before it goes back to 2004 or 05 as it inevitably will.

Also once retrogressed how long before it's back to 08,09 cut-off in 2014?

I know my questions here might come across as too eager but I'd appreciate any intelligent theories...thanks!

This is always tricky Ksur. You would wish that the date movement is always sustainable. But it is not. My "GUESS" is if the dates land post Sep 2008 - there will be likely retrogression.

I have a question regarding Consular Processing. My PD is June 2009 and I did not file I-485 since I was changing jobs. I know it wouldn't get current anytime soon but just wanted to plan. If CO moves priority dates from June to Sep next year and retrogresses in October, is Consualr Processing risky when compared to I-485.

What is the advantage of going the I-485 route since I am yet to file it and its not pre-adjudicated?

I have never heard CP being risky at all. If at all I have heard it can be faster. You may want to ask this question to Ron Gotcher who has always advocated CP over 485. I really can't endorse it one way or other. Sorry..