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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

  1. #4226
    Quote Originally Posted by EB2IndSep09 View Post
    . Now comes the best part, my employer is going to close the office where I am and is asking to move to a new location and is due in Q1 2015. Once it happens, they have to start my process all over again.
    jk.
    jk, I am sorry for your situation. By any chance u fall under I-140 amendment alone but not to start all over again? I heard someone from this forum faced the same situation, moving to different location with the same employer, not sure how he resolved it.

  2. #4227
    Quote Originally Posted by Kanmani View Post
    jk, I am sorry for your situation. By any chance u fall under I-140 amendment alone but not to start all over again? I heard someone from this forum faced the same situation, moving to different location with the same employer, not sure how he resolved it.
    I would be more than happy to get more details of that Kanmani. But what I heard back from legal dept is they need to start over again.
    Also the move would be with in the same state but to a diff Metropolitan Stats Area.

  3. #4228
    Quote Originally Posted by EB2IndSep09 View Post
    I would be more than happy to get more details of that Kanmani. But what I heard back from legal dept is they need to start over again.
    Also the move would be with in the same state but to a diff Metropolitan Stats Area.
    They can start all over but your PD should be locked in now. Is it not? That way your total wait time should still be 2009+6/7 years (depending on how soon the PERM is processed).
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  4. #4229

    EB3-India I485 Inventory level decrease and its trend to future.PNG

    If anybody is interested to see where is the EB3-India I485 ineventory levels heading.
    Here is the link:
    EB3-India I485 Inventory level decrease and its trend to future.PNG

  5. #4230
    gcpursuit and EB2IndSep09,
    Whenever i hear stories like yours, I feel what some other people are going through including me is nothing compared to what you both have gone through/are going through. These are the reasons why US government should pass legislations to such as giving EAD with I140 approval and removing dependents from the overall quota. These changes would only benefit the country as it would give many people a reason to go to other countries looking for stability. There may be many people having American Dream but there are many who are returning back to India or moving to another country fed up of this instability.

    I truly wish and hope that you guys get your GC soon.


    Quote Originally Posted by EB2IndSep09 View Post
    No offense intended and I am happy for guys like you and your families. Let me elaborate my earlier post, to cheer you up if you do not get your card this year. Also to tell every one not every one between those dates are lucky.

    I missed the boat in 2012 as I shifted my job in mid 2011 as the client insisted to join or leave. As the dates were well retrogressed, I joined the client with the agreement that they start my GC right away and port my PD Sep 2009. New employer started GC right away went with the top level Immg Lawyer Fr..Mn and they took their sweet time to file my case (9 months). And with this lack of communication between orgs moved the dates crazy with out proper foresight. My grievance is due to this people like me did not get a fair chance to file 485s at least.

    To make things worst, the same year Dec 2011 my wife graduated and she got her OPT for 12 months being a prof masters, filed H1 in Apr 2012 and her LCA was stuck with many others due to some issue that year in DOL so the employer filed her H1 on the last day in person with out Labor in anticipation that Labor would be approved the same day (I do not commend the work though). Employer got the labor approval the same day and got the confirmation the next day. However, she got a RFE and subsequent denial in Nov 2012 saying LCA is not there in org H1 application, employer re-opened a case, with the approved Labor and the case was stuck in limbo. Now the 12 months flew by with the dates tide came and gone, we could not file 485 and her OPT ended she had to take up another prof course and pay what ever she was earning to the new university to do the same degree to keep her status intact. We applied H1 next year 2013 with PP and it got approved, in a week we got rejection of the original H1 filed in the earlier year 2012 saying the LCA got approved 2hrs after they filed H1 petition on the same day (are you nuts??). we did not loose our sanity and cursed no body except our fate.

    This year we thought, the dates would move to Oct1 2009 at least based on the RFEs so that we can at least file our 485s. But again it has been a dream.

    Now comes the best part, my employer is going to close the office where I am and is asking to move to a new location and is due in Q1 2015. Once it happens, they have to start my process all over again.
    I expect the miscomm between orgs would continue and the dates would be moved crazy again one more time when they start my PERM again.

    Future, I have kids in High School who are on H4 for whom I need to pay out of state fees once they get into college.

    Note: Do not even ask why I shifted job in 2011, it was a take it or leave option which I left once and laid off in 2008 recession with the same client and the ex-employer at that time closed his shop before I get a PD of 2007. I kept long story short.
    Also I am the only one who has right to curse my fate jk.

  6. #4231
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    For those waiting for EAD approvals (first time or renewals), Murthy has published an article saying that there could be delays in processing.

    http://www.murthy.com/2014/09/17/ead...p-suggestions/

  7. #4232
    After reading some of the stories here I feel I have no right to complain . I cannot imagine the stress especially with having kids on h4 status too. Kudos for braving all of this, hopefully we all get what we want someday in the near future. Thanks to all for posting their journey here although I feel no one deserves this kind of wait but that's the price we are paying by choice to stay in this country !

  8. #4233
    Guru Spectator's Avatar
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    Murthy has also published an article that consolidates the various pieces of information from the recent monthly meeting with CO.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  9. #4234
    Quote Originally Posted by EB2IndSep09 View Post
    No offense intended and I am happy for guys like you and your families. Let me elaborate my earlier post, to cheer you up if you do not get your card this year. Also to tell every one not every one between those dates are lucky.

    I missed the boat in 2012 as I shifted my job in mid 2011 as the client insisted to join or leave. As the dates were well retrogressed, I joined the client with the agreement that they start my GC right away and port my PD Sep 2009. New employer started GC right away went with the top level Immg Lawyer Fr..Mn and they took their sweet time to file my case (9 months). And with this lack of communication between orgs moved the dates crazy with out proper foresight. My grievance is due to this people like me did not get a fair chance to file 485s at least.

    To make things worst, the same year Dec 2011 my wife graduated and she got her OPT for 12 months being a prof masters, filed H1 in Apr 2012 and her LCA was stuck with many others due to some issue that year in DOL so the employer filed her H1 on the last day in person with out Labor in anticipation that Labor would be approved the same day (I do not commend the work though). Employer got the labor approval the same day and got the confirmation the next day. However, she got a RFE and subsequent denial in Nov 2012 saying LCA is not there in org H1 application, employer re-opened a case, with the approved Labor and the case was stuck in limbo. Now the 12 months flew by with the dates tide came and gone, we could not file 485 and her OPT ended she had to take up another prof course and pay what ever she was earning to the new university to do the same degree to keep her status intact. We applied H1 next year 2013 with PP and it got approved, in a week we got rejection of the original H1 filed in the earlier year 2012 saying the LCA got approved 2hrs after they filed H1 petition on the same day (are you nuts??). we did not loose our sanity and cursed no body except our fate.

    This year we thought, the dates would move to Oct1 2009 at least based on the RFEs so that we can at least file our 485s. But again it has been a dream.

    Now comes the best part, my employer is going to close the office where I am and is asking to move to a new location and is due in Q1 2015. Once it happens, they have to start my process all over again.
    I expect the miscomm between orgs would continue and the dates would be moved crazy again one more time when they start my PERM again.

    Future, I have kids in High School who are on H4 for whom I need to pay out of state fees once they get into college.

    Note: Do not even ask why I shifted job in 2011, it was a take it or leave option which I left once and laid off in 2008 recession with the same client and the ex-employer at that time closed his shop before I get a PD of 2007. I kept long story short.
    Also I am the only one who has right to curse my fate jk.
    Eb2Ind, I share your grievance. After a long ordeal taking chances with possible deportation, I finally got a chance to file for 485 on Sep 2nd. I made sure the lawyer got it filed on Sep 2 itself All I want to say is, it will all turn out to be good and with few exceptions, there is always a happy ending. Hang in there and I am pretty sure that you will get greened very soon.
    Last edited by saagar_is_cool; 09-19-2014 at 03:05 PM. Reason: Content not relevant, so summarized it

  10. #4235
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    I see from trackitt data that there are 994 EB2-I approvals from August until today. I have heard that trackitt represents around 7% of the actual approval count. This comes out to ~14000 visas issued to EB2-I.

    Also between Oct-2013 and June 2014, I see 710 approved which comes out to ~10000 approvals. July 2014 approvals stand at 208.
    So total visas issued to EB2-I ~(14000+10000+3000=27000). Do you think EB2-I received around 24000 spill over this FY? I am assuming trackitt representation must be higher than 7% and some visas issued in Oct 2013 must be from previous FY quota. But then the approvals dried out around middle of September last year.
    Last edited by bikenlalan; 09-18-2014 at 10:59 PM.

  11. #4236
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    Quote Originally Posted by bikenlalan View Post
    I see from trackitt data that there are 994 EB2-I approvals from August until today. I have heard that trackitt represents around 7% of the actual approval count. This comes out to ~14000 visas issued to EB2-I.

    Also between Oct-2013 and June 2014, I see 710 approved which comes out to ~10000 approvals. July 2014 approvals stand at 208.
    So total visas issued to EB2-I ~(14000+10000+3000=27000). Do you think EB2-I received around 24000 spill over this FY? I am assuming trackitt representation must be higher than 7% and some visas issued in Oct 2013 must be from previous FY quota. But then the approvals dried out around middle of September last year.
    bikenlalan,

    I think 7% is a little low these days.

    The % even changed between October/November 2013 and July 2014 because so many people added their cases to Trackitt after then.

    Currently, I would estimate that EB2-I has received around 19k approvals (16k SO) for FY2014. I could be out by a few '000 either way.

    I don't think that number will change significantly during the remainder of the FY.

    I'd be interested to hear what number other people believe is the correct figure.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  12. #4237
    saagar_is_cool My story is similar but not as miserable, I think. I came in 2000 to do an MS and started working in 2002. The company started GC processing in 2004 October but those days there was no PERM and labor used to take much longer. By 2006 I decided to not wait for GC any longer and just switched jobs for better career prospects. That was a good move professionally, but immigration process got screwed up as I could not retain priority date and the new company delayed filing and filed in EB3 finally in 2008. They refused to file in EB2 as it was no benefit to them and I cannot legally pay for it myself. I missed the 2007 and 2012 buses and finally changed jobs again. Now finally after 14 years, I am going to get my EAD in the mail tomorrow. It looks like USCIS is not issuing my wife's EAD yet, which is messed up and random, but hopefully that will go through as well this month.
    Sorry for taking over this thread with stories guys, but these are "slow news" days anyway, so hopefully nobody has issues with it.
    One suggestion for Eb2IndSep09 --> look into filing EAD for your kids under Obama's executive action for DREAMers. They may be eligible, but I am not sure.

  13. #4238
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    bikenlalan,

    I think 7% is a little low these days.

    The % even changed between October/November 2013 and July 2014 because so many people added their cases to Trackitt after then.

    Currently, I would estimate that EB2-I has received around 19k approvals (16k SO) for FY2014. I could be out by a few '000 either way.

    I don't think that number will change significantly during the remainder of the FY.

    I'd be interested to hear what number other people believe is the correct figure.
    Does this mean we can expect any sort of inventory buildup for FY 2015?

  14. #4239
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    bikenlalan,

    I think 7% is a little low these days.

    The % even changed between October/November 2013 and July 2014 because so many people added their cases to Trackitt after then.

    Currently, I would estimate that EB2-I has received around 19k approvals (16k SO) for FY2014. I could be out by a few '000 either way.

    I don't think that number will change significantly during the remainder of the FY.

    I'd be interested to hear what number other people believe is the correct figure.
    Back in April, I had projected that EB2-I could recieve a total of 21k visas in FY14 and based on that number I arrived at Apr'09 COD by end of FY14.
    I'm still sticking to that number, a total of 21k for EB2-I in FY14.
    Here is the post:
    http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...2317#post52317

  15. #4240
    Guru Spectator's Avatar
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    YT,

    Thanks for your thoughts.

    I too thought that was a possible figure at one point, but the continued increased EB1 approvals and a slight upturn in EB2-WW knocked the figure down. I'd always assumed EB5 would pretty much use their entire allocation.

    If I have erred on one side or another, it would be to the low end. A figure as high as 21k is certainly possible, particularly if EB1 are lower than I believe (which is in the error margin I would ascribe to that figure, given the paucity of data).
    Last edited by Spectator; 09-20-2014 at 09:03 PM.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  16. #4241
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    YT,

    Thanks for your thoughts.

    I too thought that was a possible figure at one point, but the continued increased EB1 approvals and a slight upturn in EB2-WW knocked the figure down. I'd always assumed EB5 would pretty much use their entire allocation.

    If I have erred on one side or another, it would be slightly to the lower end. I couldn't rule out your 21k estimate.

    If we got 20K (+ or -), balance inventory is about 10K. CO does not have visibility on Porting and Consular processing cases. Wondering why he is not doing a inventory build up now? (Like he did in 2012 - at that time i think the dates were moved when the inventory was around 9K)

    Am i missing something? What has changed?

  17. #4242
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    Quote Originally Posted by sportsfan33 View Post
    We received close to 7K in October-November 2013. That completely cleaned the inventory up to June 2008.

    Going forward, we had about 14K until May 1, 2009. Out of which, 11-12K are greened. Some 2-3K are pending.

    The date was already pushed enough to avoid visa wastage.

    Finally, 10K was the inventory in 2008. The pending inventory until May 1, 2010 was more like 30K. After this year, it should drop down to 20K (14K out of the system, 4K more in the system). If FY2015 turns out to be a good year for spillover (unfortunately, the possibility is already low for this), an inventory buildup might happen. But remember we need 23K for this. The 3K quota will most likely be used in October to finish the remaining cases until May 1, 2009.
    Sorry i am bit confused.

    If you say by Oct 2014, PD upto 1st May 2009 will be greened, from the inventory we will have 13,344 pending cases (May 2009 to May 2010). I do understand the below:

    1. This number going down in FY2015 will completely depend on spillover (Annual quota is gone in oct 14)
    2. Porting could be additional 3 to 5 K
    3. Consular processing will also need to be taken into account.

    So is your 23K includes porting and consular processing also? If not, from pending inventory the number should be 13.5K.

    Thanks for your time!

  18. #4243
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    But I guess we do not need 21k if the inventory is going to be around 25k. Last time when build up happened, there were about 8-9k in inventory when CO started building the pipeline. I guess we would need 14-15k SO for CO to move dates forward.

  19. #4244
    Yoda
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    Does anybody have a link to the thread that shows the SOFAD that we got year on year (may be since 2008). Appreciate your help!

  20. #4245
    Spec's Gold Standard Effort is here: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...FY2008-Onwards

    Quote Originally Posted by skpanda View Post
    Does anybody have a link to the thread that shows the SOFAD that we got year on year (may be since 2008). Appreciate your help!
    EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary

  21. #4246
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    Quote Originally Posted by skpanda View Post
    Does anybody have a link to the thread that shows the SOFAD that we got year on year (may be since 2008). Appreciate your help!
    sk,

    Here you go.

    Some points to ponder on.

    Not every EB2-I approval will have resulted in a reduction in the USCIS Inventory.

    When CO last moved the dates in 2012, he thought at the time that more numbers would be available to EB2-I than eventually was the case. USCIS had told him that EB1 approvals would be very low, which was not the case. If we are moving into a period of lower SO (and depending on the timing), he may not feel the need to move the COD until the demand is lower. He got burnt last time and I don't think he will forget that.

    There have been a large number of new applications within the CODs that were in effect from July 2014 onwards (several '000 possibly).

    I think there will be rather more than 3k "old" cases within the 01MAY09 COD going into October 2014. I don't think they will all be cleared in October.

    YT's estimation of about 18k inventory after October (and use of the 3k allocation) looks about right. To that, you could also add some more porting cases that don't appear in the Inventory.

    I think it will be quite difficult to go into "Inventory Building Mode" at the end of FY2015.
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  22. #4247
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    sk,

    Here you go.

    Some points to ponder on.

    Not every EB2-I approval will have resulted in a reduction in the USCIS Inventory.

    When CO last moved the dates in 2012, he thought at the time that more numbers would be available to EB2-I than eventually was the case. USCIS had told him that EB1 approvals would be very low, which was not the case. If we are moving into a period of lower SO (and depending on the timing), he may not feel the need to move the COD until the demand is lower. He got burnt last time and I don't think he will forget that.

    There have been a large number of new applications within the CODs that were in effect from July 2014 onwards (several '000 possibly).

    I think there will be rather more than 3k "old" cases within the 01MAY09 COD going into October 2014. I don't think they will all be cleared in October.

    YT's estimation of about 18k inventory after October (and use of the 3k allocation) looks about right. To that, you could also add some more porting cases that don't appear in the Inventory.

    I think it will be quite difficult to go into "Inventory Building Mode" at the end of FY2015.


    Thanks!

    It would hurt if there is no inventory build up in FY2015. But then it is what it is.

    If we do not get atleast 10K in FY2015, it will be the worst year since 2008. Hope that does not happen!

  23. #4248
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    sk,

    Here you go.


    I think it will be quite difficult to go into "Inventory Building Mode" at the end of FY2015.
    100% agree with that statement, at least I do not see a combination(except through some legislative or executive action!!) that would deplete the EB2I inventory next fiscal to get into a full fledged inventory building mode.

  24. #4249

    Question Advise on changing employers

    Hi Gurus,

    My PD is July 2011 in EB2 I.

    I'm working for a consulting company and working for its client(no other layers). I'm on 9th year of H1B (3 yr approval based on I-140). My client made a good offer to me and I'm thinking of joining them. However, this client won't start the GC untill I complete 1 year with them and as you know the PERM process is very slow. So it could take about 2 to 2.5 years before I get I-140 approval if I choose my client's job offer. My concerns are

    1. If the H4 EAD rule comes, does it allow the spouse to get EAD even though we are not with the previous employer(consulting firm)? I mean based on the current consulting firm's I-140 after joining the client company? I know the rule is not finalized and no one is sure if it will even come or not...still since we can use the previous I-140 for retaining PD/renewing H1, do you think is this something we can count on?

    2. Once I leave the consulting firm, they won't proceed the GC. But is there any hope for EAD before early 2017 for mid 2011 folks?

    Thanks...
    Have a great weekend.

  25. #4250
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    Quote Originally Posted by MATT2012 View Post
    100% agree with that statement, at least I do not see a combination(except through some legislative or executive action!!) that would deplete the EB2I inventory next fiscal to get into a full fledged inventory building mode.
    If needed they can advance a few months to generate a few thousands of applications. Hope they don't move a few years back and forth to screw late 2009 PDers forever.

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