Just published inventory for Jan 2013, EB2-I inventory is 42,585. Same last year Jan 2012 was 12,950.
There would not be any movement on account of building inventory.
Originally Posted by triplet
Just published inventory for Jan 2013, EB2-I inventory is 42,585. Same last year Jan 2012 was 12,950.
There would not be any movement on account of building inventory.
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...01_15_2013.pdf
EB1---13k
EB2ROW--13.5K
Total---26.5K+CP
If USCIS adjudicates at the same speed--<3months as they did last year(looks like they are already doing) then getting 5K SO also looks tough this year
EB2I:TSC, PD:05/28/2008, I-485 Applied:01/10/2012, 485-Receipt:01/16/2012, FP:02/17/2012, EAD/AP approval:03/08/2012, Received RFE:05/18/2012, RFE Replied:06/22/2012, RFE Status Update:07/12/2012, 485-Approval;?
By comparing the demand data (from DoS) with this inventory data, should we be able to determine what percentage of applications are pre-adjudicated?
When I look at demand data for EB2-I for PD 2007 it is 5500. But the inventory is only 5177. Generally (especially for PD's in 2009 & 2010), there should be more applications in the inventory data than in the demand data. But it does not appear so.
I would like to understand EB2-ROW demand. Their quota is 34,440 (40040-5600:I&C).
-Let us say they have used up 25% of their quota in the 1st 3 months and 75% (25,830) remains to be allocated. This is a BIG assumption.
-Let us also assume their average monthly demand as 782 (arrived by dividing PD 2012 inventory number 9,386 by 12).
-If I assume that it takes 4 months to approve perm and then 485's would not be issued for PD's after May 2013.
So the maximum approvals should be 13,362 (entire inventory) + 3910 (782 * 5 months Jan to May) = 17,272.
Subtracting 17,272 from remaining visa's 25,830 would give = 8,558 spill across. I am not sure how many visa's go to counsular processing.
Is my logic correct?
this is a disaster. Look at 2004 numbers they increased by more than 200. that means demand is extremely high. in oct it was 418 now its 648. That means even after approving cases the number increased meaning they are just overwhelmed with demand. i am not being pessimistic but with this I dont see how dates would move. With this trend dates for Eb2 I will be U
Monthly demand-->758 for 2012 is incorrect as dates retrogressed for 4 months lot of applications were filed from November2012, pending inventory does not represent total number of applications that came in from Nov onwards as it has been only 2 months it takes some time for them to show up in pending inventory(same thing happened with EB2I pending inventory last year) and more over some applications are already approved which does not show up in inventory.
Unfortunately at this point except CO no body knows how many visas are used by EB2ROW each month.
It does take 4 months to get PERM approval but we cannot assume 2013 Jan-May will have same number of applications as 2012 because any one with PD<2012 can apply including EB3-EB2ROW porting.
It would be great if EB2ROW does not use any SO from EB1/EB4(if any), I don't think EB2ROW is going to yield any SO this year
EB2I:TSC, PD:05/28/2008, I-485 Applied:01/10/2012, 485-Receipt:01/16/2012, FP:02/17/2012, EAD/AP approval:03/08/2012, Received RFE:05/18/2012, RFE Replied:06/22/2012, RFE Status Update:07/12/2012, 485-Approval;?
Openaccount - Thanks. I can see that some of the EB2-ROW's early in 2012 would have already been approved and would not be in the inventory report. That number is not correct.
dorais,
Also bear in mind that the USCIS Inventory only shows an I-485 where the underlying I-140 has been approved. Any concurrent filed cases where the I-140 has yet to be approved will not show in the figures.
Approvals for EB2-ROW appear to have been very heavy in the first quarter due to the previous retrogression - they seem well above the 25% you are assuming IMO.
Historically, EB2-ROW have much higher approvals than your calculation would suggest. FY2009 = 30.1k FY2010 = 24.4k FY2011 = 30.2k.
The figures you have quoted (9,386) are for ROW, not WW, so the allocation for them is 40,040 - (2,803 * 4) = 28,828 not the 34,440 in your post.
PS To me, ROW are those Countries other than ICMP. WW are those Countries sharing the latest Cut Off Date in a Category. As in EB3, not all Countries other than IC necessarily share the latest Cut Off Date. There, WW only refers to ROW & M. M & P can have entirely independent factors governing their figures e.g. % of CP cases or Schedule A.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Thanks Spec. In the inventory report there are 649 cases (EB2- ROW) with PD of Dec 2012. Are these cases filed without Perm (like in NIW)?
One thing puzzles me with the Inventory data is..............
Under EB2 WW category I see the 437 applications for OCT 2012, 1,321 applications for NOV2012 and 731 applications for DEC 2012.
How come someone file the 485 application with priority date NOV 2012 and DEC 2012, when the PERMs for NOV and DEC are still not processed.
Can someone throw light on this.
The quick answer is National Interest Waiver.
Spec, I find it hard to believe that the data only includes concurrent filers with an approved I-140. If that were the case, Dec 2012 should be almost 0 under EB-2.
In fact, this is from the FAQ on the inventory
Q: What does this pending inventory report contain?
A: Although this pending inventory report is intended to provide information about demand for an immigrant visa and give potential employment-based immigrants an idea of where they stand in line for a visa, it does not include all potential employment-based immigrants. This report contains principal and dependent employment-based I-485s pending at USCIS Service Centers and Field Offices. It does not include cases pending consular processing at overseas posts. It also does not include individuals and their dependents with a pending or approved I-140 petition who have not yet filed an I-485 application or begun consular processing. Please note, therefore, that there are likely many individuals with an earlier priority date than your own who do not currently appear on the inventory, either because they are awaiting consular processing or because they have not filed an I-485.
I interpret the phrase in bold to mean that those with a pending I-140 who have filed an I-485 would be included.
dorais, redsox2009,
Up front, I will say I have never been able to understand or extract anything useful from the EB1 and EB2-WW USCIS Inventory figures.
I think we have to question quite how accurate the data is (at least at a PD level).
The numbers are more indicative of the pattern of numbers expected (regardless of PD) as the Cut Off Date first moved 01JAN12 in October (and where many have already been approved), then became Current in November.
The numbers (for late PD months at least) do not make sense because, as you say, it would be very difficult to have so many with such late PDs.
Trackitt cases do not reflect the same pattern - for instance, there is only one non-NIW EB2-ROW case pending in the tracker with a December 2012 PD. Even that one is suspect, since the PD is one day later than the RD. It is either wrong or is an NIW/Schedule A case - probably the former. Even today, the numbers of EB2-ROW Trackitt cases drops off markedly after a PD of June 2012. Fair warning - Trackitt does not necessarily reflect the true situation.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
There are two possibilities:
1. WW cases are being added based on filing date and not PD. Why the inconsistency, I do not know. This is one way of explaining the "surges" in EB2-WW for June 2012 (right before retrogression) and November 2012 (when dates became current again).
2. WW cases are being added based on PD, but there are a lot of NIW / Schedule A cases. So when dates were about to retrogress and just after they became current, a lot of applications arrived.
The surge in numbers make me think that WW cases are actually the number of cases received in each month. If that is the case, isn't it little bit easy to estimate the future demand based on the trend? We should also be able to add that estimate for the future months with the current inventory to get approximate demand for the rest of the year.
Few abnormals in the inventory report
There are 251 for EB2I August 2004. This is kind of cookedup answer for themselves to say they EB2I is not moving.
EB2 WW on trackit shows most of the applications applied pre-July 2012 were approved, but on the inventory, they are showed as non approved.
As stated earlier EB-5 has high demand, in the inventory EB-5 is low.
I believe that, Inventory data does not show already approved 485.
These numbers only reflect waiting for Visa Number cases. Please correct me, if I am wrong.
Though these are moving targets and one can not compare both at any time, experts please clarify
Inventory:I-485 application pending (under consideration cases and adjudicated)
Demand :I-485 application adjudicated.)
If approved and visa numbers allocated. These will not be counted as these are GCs
Hence at a give time: Demand + Under consideration cases = inventory
After quite a long gap, the PERM Processing times have been updated by DOL.
Analyst Reviews ----------------------- October 10 2012
Audits -------------------------------- May 31 2012
Reconsideration Requests to the CO ---- January 7* 2013
Gov't Error Reconsiderations ---------- Current
The Analyst Review and Audit dates posted on iCERT above reflect the month and year in which cases were filed that are now being adjudicated at the Atlanta National Processing Center. *The Reconsideration Request to the CO dates posted on iCERT above reflect the month and year in which cases that are now being reviewed at the Atlanta National Processing Center were appealed. For various reasons, we may be completing the processing of applications filed prior to the month posted on iCERT. If your application was filed more than 3 months prior to the month posted, you may contact our Helpdesk for a status on the application at plc.atlanta@dol.gov.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
The USCIS Dashboard figures have been updated for November 2012.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
I-140 filing is down and I-485 filing is not high as expected. Hope this trend will continue. If so then we are looking around 40K visas fallover from eb1, 2, 4 & 5
Can you please provide more information on how you reached 40K numbers? and how will you get numbers from EB2? and where will they go>?
Any further posts in this thread about CIR will be deleted, rather than moved.
Please post them in this thread.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
I can't agree. I just don't see it that way and I am not sure what you expected.
Once the I-485 figures are adjusted to take account of the fact that not all are EB (only about 45% of those at NSC/TSC are) and to the baseline when there were very few EB2 cases that could be filed, the underlying numbers appear to show quite a strong increase in EB2-WW receipt numbers (assuming they account for the vast majority of the difference).
The I-140 receipt numbers so far in FY2013 are just high. The 8,978 in October is the highest I have ever seen (I have data back to July 2008). Even November's figure of 7,343 puts it on the low end of the top quartile. The average number / month last year was 6,080. Even that is skewed higher, since the last 4 months averaged 7,547 / month. The first 8 months of FY2012 averaged only 5,347 / month.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
My Explanation, digest if it makes sense and ignore if it doesn’t.
There are multiple reasons why the I-140 filing was high in Q4 2012, one of the main reasons is the Perm approval rates in in Q4 2012 are so high.
Here are Numbers for last quarter of the Perm approvals 6026 in Sep and corresponding I-140 fillings 6910, Perm approvals 7980 in Aug corresponding I-140 fillings 7886, Perm approvals 6816 in July corresponding I-140 fillings 8093.
Perm approvals explain why the I-140 fillings are high.
In June 2012, Perm Approvals for I & C are 3638 and for Row are 2313, but the I-140 fillings and 485 fillings are 7297 and 17170. I-140 fillings are higher than the total perm fillings. This could be the fillings from EB1. Whole Q3 ROW Perm approvals are 6122, and 16632 for all countries on other hand the I-140 fillings are high in Q3.
In last quarter total numbers of perm approvals are 20822 and 7786 for Row. If the I-140 fillings came in last quarter and early Oct, those could be coming in mostly from I and C.
Now assuming that these ROW Q4 Perm approvals did not file for I-485 in Q4, as dates got retrogressed, and they filled in Nov 2012. Nov I-485 filling is 16770, which is below the avg compared to previous years and less than the Jun 2012 fillings.
Based on the previous data for I-485 fillings, Monthly High numbers for the EB1 and ROW EB-2 are 2000 and 1500 respectively. Assuming 8k ROW EB-2 were approved and ready from Q3-2012, the number we are see in 24k for EB1 and 26K for Eb2-ROW. Remaining 26k could be coming to Eb-2 I and C. Another standard 7K could be coming from EB4 and EB5.
If Numbers are low then we are looking around 1500 to 1000 for Eb1 and Eb2 respectively, and that brings the 40K number
These are my assumptions and I could be wrong or I could be right, nothing wrong in thinking positive.
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