EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[anuprab]

Thanks for your reply. the last I checked with my lawyers I couldn't port to eb2 within the same company. Also since I am not in IT but investment management I doubt any other hiring firm will do my perm and 140. I have a call with my lawyer next week but from what I understand I can do a masters and then ask to file under eb2 again. Never mind that I already have an MBA from india and a CFA here but wait the CFA doesn't count since its a professional certification! Further I doubt a small firm like mine will spend the money and do it just for my benefit hence the frustration and the question. Its like every where I turn, I run into a wall. the only right thing to do seems is to wait for our fate!

[Kanmani]

Kanmani you there? Spec? Any opinion on this?

"No more than 27% of the available visas may be issued in any of the first three fiscal quarters" It is the upper limit.

Worth reading:http://cdn.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastor...0/11-35412.pdf

This document states that there is no mention of approving by priority date in any of the statuettes of INA. The law is silent on that matter even for the backlogged countries.

PS: imdeng it is DoS

[mkmcmmn]

I totally agree with you, same thing i'm also planning. My priority date is around May 2011. Only problem i see in switching is i have just 1 year left on my H1B. If i make switch, to get H1B extension beyond 6 years, i'm not sure how i can get PERM and 140 approval within a year, considering companies will not immediately start GC processing.

You already have an approved I-140, correct?
If so, then that's all you need to get a 3-year H1B extension using provisions of AC-21. You don't need to have your new PERM (assuming you change jobs) or I-140 to be approved to take advantage of AC-21 for additional 3-year H1B extensions.

Of course, the gurus here can correct me if I'm wrong.

[vizcard]

Thanks for your reply. the last I checked with my lawyers I couldn't port to eb2 within the same company. Also since I am not in IT but investment management I doubt any other hiring firm will do my perm and 140. I have a call with my lawyer next week but from what I understand I can do a masters and then ask to file under eb2 again. Never mind that I already have an MBA from india and a CFA here but wait the CFA doesn't count since its a professional certification! Further I doubt a small firm like mine will spend the money and do it just for my benefit hence the frustration and the question. Its like every where I turn, I run into a wall. the only right thing to do seems is to wait for our fate!

I dont mean to give career advice on an immigration forum but there are potential avenues where you could get an EB2 application. I know it might be a little difficult with investment management firms but no harming in trying. Also have you considered management consulting in financial services. Its not for everyone but i know mgmt consulting firms are not shy about applying for green cards and such. also, you have the option to move to other industries. With your background it might be possible to get a Treasury or FP&A role.

[vizcard]

I totally agree with you, same thing i'm also planning. My priority date is around May 2011. Only problem i see in switching is i have just 1 year left on my H1B. If i make switch, to get H1B extension beyond 6 years, i'm not sure how i can get PERM and 140 approval within a year, considering companies will not immediately start GC processing.

You already have an approved I-140, correct?
If so, then that's all you need to get a 3-year H1B extension using provisions of AC-21. You don't need to have your new PERM (assuming you change jobs) or I-140 to be approved to take advantage of AC-21 for additional 3-year H1B extensions.

Of course, the gurus here can correct me if I'm wrong.

Its 2 different things - H1 extension vs the green card process. If fedup14 (love the handle btw) changes jobs, here is the likely sequence of events.

- Transfer existing H1B to new employer and get an additional 3 yrs using the approved I140 as the basis (assuming the current employer doesn't withdraw it)
- Re-file the green card process starting with PERM and recapture the old PD.
- Apply for I140 after getting PERM approval (potentially concurrently with I485).

PS - FYI: AC21 provisions refer to both what you posted and also to being able to change jobs 6 months after filing a 485. Typically when AC21 is referred to in forum conversations - it means the latter.

[cursedguy]

I dont mean to give career advice on an immigration forum but there are potential avenues where you could get an EB2 application. I know it might be a little difficult with investment management firms but no harming in trying. Also have you considered management consulting in financial services. Its not for everyone but i know mgmt consulting firms are not shy about applying for green cards and such. also, you have the option to move to other industries. With your background it might be possible to get a Treasury or FP&A role.

Vizcard , I'm sure you have the right intentions behind giving the above advice but changing career for GC which cannot be guaranteed does not work well in the long term for everyone. I'm saying that because I quit a fulltime job with good upward prospects for green card. The problem was they put me in EB3 even though I had Masters + 5 years experience at that time. Fast forward 6 years I may get green card but my career is kind of stagnant for the past 6 six years. Keep in mind these are the best years of my life -once you get older other priorities take over career. Just had to get those thoughts out of my head .

[saagar_is_cool]

I totally agree with you, same thing i'm also planning. My priority date is around May 2011. Only problem i see in switching is i have just 1 year left on my H1B. If i make switch, to get H1B extension beyond 6 years, i'm not sure how i can get PERM and 140 approval within a year, considering companies will not immediately start GC processing.

If you have approved 140, then you will get 3 years with the new company. Your remaining 1 year in current company has nothing to do with new H1. I have copied my response from trackitt to another user below

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I am no legal expert, but I have had my fair share of moves and different twists, so I will answer from the information collected during my experiences. Post 6 years, you can change jobs on H1 if you meet one of the two conditions. You have an approved 140 from your current employer which the future employer uses and that will get you a 3 year extension (OR) you have an approved labor from current employer or a pending labor for more than 365 days which will get you 1 year extension. But there is a twist involved in this. Let's say you move from A --> B and you have approved 140 with A. When B files, you should file your H1 in premium and ensure that you get approval before giving notice at A. This way A will not revoke your 140 before your H1 is approved. Now if you plan to move from B --> C you can still use 140 from A for 3 years extension provided A has NOT revoked 140 by that time. Typically A will revoke your 140 for various reasons. In that case, you CANNOT move from B unless you have your PERM processing started with B and have approved 140 or approved labor or pending labor for more than 365 days. You have to be very careful about a couple of things. If you give notice at A when you get receipt notice for H1 filing at B and do not do premium, then if A revokes 140 before H1 is approved, you are at risk. So what I did was, did premium and had H1 approval in hand before moving to B to get rid of any risks. This is probably the risk that the new employer immigration team is saying. Also, do you have 140 approval notice copy with you from your current employer. That is very crucial for all these things. You need to atleast have your EAC/SRC number for your 140.

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[saagar_is_cool]

Vizcard , I'm sure you have the right intentions behind giving the above advice but changing career for GC which cannot be guaranteed does not work well in the long term for everyone. I'm saying that because I quit a fulltime job with good upward prospects for green card. The problem was they put me in EB3 even though I had Masters + 5 years experience at that time. Fast forward 6 years I may get green card but my career is kind of stagnant for the past 6 six years. Keep in mind these are the best years of my life -once you get older other priorities take over career. Just had to get those thoughts out of my head .

We are in similar boat. I was flourishing in a big company with very good career prospects but they filed in EB3 even though I had Masters with 5+ years of experience. I quit and it has been two years and got a chance for EAD this year. I had to forego an excellent opportunity (financial and title wise) in the start of this year, since I had a hunch that I might be current and will lose the opportunity to file 485 and get EAD this year.

At the end of the day it is all about priorities. If I ask myself, why I want a GC and how not having one is setting me back, I don't have a clear answer. But it is one of those things I GOT to have I think it boils down to removing uncertianities in longer term. The paradox of all this is, when you are young and you can move anywhere in the country for a better opportunity to move up in your career, you dont have GC and most companies don't want the hassle of sponsorship. By the time you get your GC, you have family and kids and don't want to move across country because of house, school and stability factors. Last month, I had to forego a Senior Director position because of the relocation issue and possible jeopardy of 485/EAD 6 month rule. The system demands excellence but is bent on pushing us towards mediocrity. Anyways, Life goes on, GC or no GC

[gc2008]

As per trackitt, there were about 280 plus approvals during OCT/NOV last year. This may translate to few thousands. Any guess from where these numbers came from?

Hello Gurus,
Can you please answer my question?

[cursedguy]

We are in similar boat. I was flourishing in a big company with very good career prospects but they filed in EB3 even though I had Masters with 5+ years of experience. I quit and it has been two years and got a chance for EAD this year. I had to forego an excellent opportunity (financial and title wise) in the start of this year, since I had a hunch that I might be current and will lose the opportunity to file 485 and get EAD this year.

At the end of the day it is all about priorities. If I ask myself, why I want a GC and how not having one is setting me back, I don't have a clear answer. But it is one of those things I GOT to have I think it boils down to removing uncertianities in longer term. The paradox of all this is, when you are young and you can move anywhere in the country for a better opportunity to move up in your career, you dont have GC and most companies don't want the hassle of sponsorship. By the time you get your GC, you have family and kids and don't want to move across country because of house, school and stability factors. Last month, I had to forego a Senior Director position because of the relocation issue and possible jeopardy of 485/EAD 6 month rule. The system demands excellence but is bent on pushing us towards mediocrity. Anyways, Life goes on, GC or no GC

Exactly, it works for some and does not for others. *IF* EO by Obama goes thru in November' 14 (not saying it will) do we beat ourselves for doing all this ? I don't know.

[cursedguy]

Hello Gurus,
Can you please answer my question?

Yearly Quota ofcourse, it opens on Oct 1st. Approximately 3000 for EB2.

[gc2008]

I just checked trackitt, there were about 660 EB2 cases approved in two months (OCT/NOV). If we convert this it would be more than actual 3000 visas.

[vizcard]

Yearly Quota ofcourse, it opens on Oct 1st. Approximately 3000 for EB2.

I just checked trackitt, there were about 660 EB2 cases approved in two months (OCT/NOV). If we convert this it would be more than actual 3000 visas.

few factors - there's the annual quota. there was also a hypothesis that there were cases with visas already requested from the previous fiscal year but were approved in Oct. lastly, another hypothesis is that CO used some estimated FB overflow from the previous fiscal year.

[vizcard]

Vizcard , I'm sure you have the right intentions behind giving the above advice but changing career for GC which cannot be guaranteed does not work well in the long term for everyone. I'm saying that because I quit a fulltime job with good upward prospects for green card. The problem was they put me in EB3 even though I had Masters + 5 years experience at that time. Fast forward 6 years I may get green card but my career is kind of stagnant for the past 6 six years. Keep in mind these are the best years of my life -once you get older other priorities take over career. Just had to get those thoughts out of my head .

im not at all suggesting you change jobs just for a GC. I assumed based on your original post that you were in fact looking to change jobs. My bad!

[gc2008]

Quarterly spill over should not be more than 800 visas, how come they approved to the tune of atleast 6000 visas (I am assuming 10% of cases report in trackitt)?

By definition, quarterly spillover would mean more than 800 visas.

[gc2008]

I still see about 2500 cases pending till 30th April 2009 on trackitt. So my assumption of 10% report in trackitt may not be correct. If it is 10% then it would be 25000 still waiting and this should not be the case (based on inventory). Even if we assume 30% people report on trackitt, then there are still 8300 cases are pending.

[vizcard]

I still see about 2500 cases pending till 30th April 2009 on trackitt. So my assumption of 10% report in trackitt may not be correct. If it is 10% then it would be 25000 still waiting and this should not be the case (based on inventory). Even if we assume 30% people report on trackitt, then there are still 8300 cases are pending.

Not everyone will get approved. that's consistent from previous years too. There is always an "overhang" that carries over to the next year - could be anywhere from 2000-5000 cases.

[vizcard]

Will they issue EAD's faster to new applicants now?

Hard to answer your question. Back in 2012, they were issuing EADs in 15-30 days. Then the renewals in 2013 took 45-60 days for some. It'll be interesting to get current data on EAD processing times through trackitt.

[Kanmani]

I still see about 2500 cases pending till 30th April 2009 on trackitt. So my assumption of 10% report in trackitt may not be correct. If it is 10% then it would be 25000 still waiting and this should not be the case (based on inventory). Even if we assume 30% people report on trackitt, then there are still 8300 cases are pending.

gc2008, we cannot use that 10% to extrapolate the data on all those statistics at trackitt. The reason is, people don't always update their case details immediately after approval or some update don't forever, especially after a prolonged wait. They do actively register at the very beginning and many tend to forget in the due course. So the trackitt data varies time to time and person's perspective to person. We should spend some time to analyze the wave.

[anuprab]

i thought i was alone in my misery but its heartening to know there are so many qualified people stuck in a rut. Saagar...u hit the nail on the head. I spent my late 20s and early 30s settling in this country and getting a CFA. Should have moved right after but got the biological clock ticking like a time bomb and now its too late. GC would give the much needed certainty. Sadly given up on career growth for now! i think of it as the price being paid for making a choice to stay in this country....and yes the system doesnt have to try hard to put you towards mediocrity...ver well said!
on other note why doesnt BO just do something for the legals instead of tying their fate with the 11m undocumented workers. Is there no way we can do something about this, I agree we are not the vote bank but c'mon they cant let this backlog run like this for yrs and yrs...this is the only country that gets so many immigrants that helps it succeed.

[qesehmk]

"No more than 27% of the available visas may be issued in any of the first three fiscal quarters" It is the upper limit.

Worth reading:http://cdn.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastor...0/11-35412.pdf

This document states that there is no mention of approving by priority date in any of the statuettes of INA. The law is silent on that matter even for the backlogged countries.

It just became more complicated then. I am wondering then how do we explain the early approvals this year in October and going into November.

[migo79]

The only thing that can advance EBI forward is a CIR, looking at the numbers for EB2I for example is bleaky post 2010PD, there is huge number of EB2I perms approved more than the ones in 2008,2009 which current cutoff date at.

add to that the increase in other categories that will not give high SOFAD, this will make EB2I movement very slow in the coming years.

without a CIR EBI category is a joke, sorry for that, maybe EB3I could have good chances when the pass the 2007 bottleneck assuming EB3ROW gets current but also they won't see much higher SO until next year.

there must be a CIR!

[anuprab]

The only thing that can advance EBI forward is a CIR, looking at the numbers for EB2I for example is bleaky post 2010PD, there is huge number of EB2I perms approved more than the ones in 2008,2009 which current cutoff date at.

add to that the increase in other categories that will not give high SOFAD, this will make EB2I movement very slow in the coming years.

without a CIR EBI category is a joke, sorry for that, maybe EB3I could have good chances when the pass the 2007 bottleneck assuming EB3ROW gets current but also they won't see much higher SO until next year.

there must be a CIR!

where can I get an idea on the number of PERMS filed. My husband has May 3 2010 as his PD so hoping there weren't many filed before that date in 2010

[jdoe99]

It just became more complicated then. I am wondering then how do we explain the early approvals this year in October and going into November.

Q and other experts: Can someone explain how the Family spillover or visa allocation works for Eb2I in the beginning of the fiscal year. As far as I can see, even family based applications are stuck way back (ok, not as much as E2bI and Eb3I). I am having trouble understanding how this affects the number of visas they give out in Oct. For FY 2014 they gave out 362 and 239 485 primary approvals as per Spec's compilation of trackitt user data. Given the scaling and dependents, I am sure this works out to more than a couple of thousand at the very least.
You probably have answered these questions. Apologies and Thanks in advance

[anuprab]

This data should not be hard to obtain. Spec is on vacation, when he returns, he will give you a better picture. For you, the PERM data would not be very useful though. Almost everyone until May 1 2010 is already in the inventory, so looking at the inventory and adding 3-5K for each passing year (porting) would give you an educated guess into how many people are in front of you.

It was thought before that May 3 2010 would be current by 2016 (an outside chance of 2015). With the latest developments (decreasing spillovers, increasing porting), an year or 2 may have been added to this estimate. Suffices to say, you are looking at 2-4 years for that date to be current. You might in fact have an outside shot of your EB3I date of 2006 being current within 3-4 years the way porting is reducing inventory in EB3I. If you are looking for a job that offers EB2 upgrade, this is an ideal time to start looking.

omg please say that's not true. I cant wait for another 3-4 yrs, I can wait 2. I am not looking at getting the greencard. I just want that date to be current so I can move on from being primary ...no hopes for that either?