EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[qesehmk]

YTel, that's what most of us think. However what I personally get baffled at - for that logic to work - the total porting prior to the current EB2I date should be 233 or more.

Which I find somewhat hard to believe. But I could be wrong.

If I assume the 233/month is the visa quota allocation for EB3I and EB2I each, then I can arrive at 223/month visa issuance to the porters(EB3I to EB2I) in this financial year so far. This is what is evident from the last 4 DDs published. This could be one reason which I think why we didn't see any movement for EB2I in last 4 VBs. On the other hand it is good that the rate is 223/mon so far which is not significant, but this rate might go up when spillover comes in effect and the cutoff dates advance in future.

[Spectator]

Can we get an idea of porting and how many EB2s have been approved for the first quarter by comparing the difference between EB3 DD from oct to Current? So if USCIS has been diligent in removing the EB2 approved cases from the EB3 Queue then those extra approvals must be EB2 I. I did a quick comparison between the DD released in October for the Nov bulletin and the current DD. I see a difference between EB3 numbers of 1550. 750 would be the normal EB3 approvals and hence EB2 I approvals for the last quarter would be ~ 750-800. Thoughts?

I compared each DD and it seems that in October they approved 400 for EB2 I and then ~ 180 each nov and dec

I'm not sure you can necessarily say that and I don't entirely understand where your monthly breakdown is coming from.

If I were analysing the figures, I would do it this way.

The Demand Data for a particular month is based on figures as at the beginning of the previous month. i.e The November DD was as at October 9, 2012 (roughly the beginning of the FY) and the February DD was as at Jan. 8, 2013 Roughly the end of Q1).

The overall change for EB3-I over that period is 47,125 minus 45,100 = 2,025.

But, reductions in the period before 2003 are likely EB3 approvals and reductions in periods after 2004 cannot be EB2 approvals this year, since the dates have never been Current.

Overall change ------ 2,025
Change pre 2003 ------ (750) - This is what we would expect
Change post 2004 ----- (475)

Change 2003-2004 ----- (800)

The monthly breakdown would be

October --- (325)
November -- (425)
December -- ( 50)

Total ----- (800)

That is not consistent with the pattern of Trackitt approvals, which shows a high number of approvals in October, followed by lower approvals in November and December. That would be an expected pattern after a long period of visas being Unavailable. It is possible there were a large numbers of approvals in the period October 1-8, which would not be captured in the figures.

The above can only say that perhaps there may have been 800 approvals.

The Demand Data movement only shows NET movement. A reduction of 100 can equally be 100 cases approved or equally 250 cases approved and 150 additions. There is no way to tell which. Equally reductions can be due to denials and withdrawals, as well as approvals.

[sbhagwat2000]

I'm not sure you can necessarily say that and I don't entirely understand where your monthly breakdown is coming from.

If I were analysing the figures, I would do it this way.

The Demand Data for a particular month is based on figures as at the beginning of the previous month. i.e The November DD was as at October 9, 2012 (roughly the beginning of the FY) and the February DD was as at Jan. 8, 2013 Roughly the end of Q1).

The overall change for EB3-I over that period is 47,125 minus 45,100 = 2,025.

But, reductions in the period before 2003 are likely EB3 approvals and reductions in periods after 2004 cannot be EB2 approvals this year, since the dates have never been Current.

Overall change ------ 2,025
Change pre 2003 ------ (750) - This is what we would expect
Change post 2004 ----- (475)

Change 2003-2004 ----- (800)

The monthly breakdown would be

October --- (325)
November -- (425)
December -- ( 50)

Total ----- (800)

That is not consistent with the pattern of Trackitt approvals, which shows a high number of approvals in October, followed by lower approvals in November and December. It is possible there were a large numbers of approvals in the period October 1-8.

The above can only say that perhaps there have been at least 800 approvals.

The Demand Data movement only shows NET movement. A reduction of 100 can equally be 100 cases approved or equally 500 cases approved and 400 new cases. There is no way to tell which.

I looked at the DD for November that was released in Oct. And I am looking at numbers only before 2005. So in Oct in the DD EB3 before 2005 was 25650. In november for December DD it was 25000. So thats a reduction of 650. Now out of that 250 will be EB3 approvals - the monthly qouta - and the rest of the reductions would be due to EB2 approvals and removal from EB3. So that is 400. Now the current DD has the number before 2005 for EB3 to be 24100. So thats a further reduction of about 900. Out of that 500 would be EB3 approvals the rest 400 would be EB2. So 200 for Nov and 200 in december. So according to this data it is - 400, 200 and 200. It must be definately more than this but not by a lot I guess. Its would be interesting to see the DDs coming up next to gauge the trend. But if this stays then dates will move

[sbhagwat2000]

also bear in mind we are only looking at reductions in EB3 cases. So there are no net new cases here. The reduction directly correlates with reductions in EB2.

[qesehmk]

Check this out

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD

shows some interesting data. My interpretation is that these are field offices that no longer receive any 485 receipts for EB based cases. However at times service centers do send cases back to field offices for whatever reasons - or field offices have legacy inventory (probably EB3 and some EB2). That's why the approval data at that level is so low.

Anyway .. but a big question on all of our mind was how big is the inventory at field offices. This pretty much puts that question to bed. The answer is - NOT more than 3K.

[Spectator]

For those interested. I have updated the DOS Demand Data thread to include all Demand Data ever published to February 2013.

Since I can't upload pdf files directly, they are contained in the zip files attached.

[sbhagwat2000]

For those interested. I have updated the DOS Demand Data thread to include all Demand Data ever published to February 2013.

Since I can't upload pdf files directly, they are contained in the zip files attached.

Thanks for doing that. Based on the the difference in the Demand for EB3 from October 9th onwards to Jan 10 it looks like EB2 I approvals were

Oct - > 400
Nov - > 300
Dec-> 100

Lets see if the trend continues lower. Trackitt approvals are trending lower

[Pundit Arjun]

Spec, Can you please give the link to the page where you had calculated and projected when later priority dates(2009 and after) would be current (providing different spillover numbers) ?

Thanks in advance.

~ Arjun

[Spectator]

Spec, Can you please give the link to the page where you had calculated and projected when later priority dates(2009 and after) would be current (providing different spillover numbers) ?

Thanks in advance.

~ Arjun

Pundit Arjun,

Those were calculated back in FY2012 and are not relevant anymore.

[Pundit Arjun]

Pundit Arjun,

Those were calculated back in FY2012 and are not relevant anymore.

Thanks Spec. Eagerly looking forward for the new ones, whenever it is ready

[sbhagwat2000]

Spec,

On Oct 9th the DD that was published had EB3 demand before 2005 as 25650. The DD published on november 10th had EB3 demand before 2005 at 25000. doesnt that mean that leaving aside the qouta of 250 the rest were EB2 approvals that were taken out of the EB 3 Q. so then the EB2 approvals between oct and nov DDs is atleast 400. The same goes for between nov and dec and dec and jan. Now EB3 being static with no new cases added should'nt the net difference between Oct and Jan - the EB3 Quota = EB2 I approvals ? Agreed some may be just applciations that are withdrawn but their number is less. Another thing to note is between Dec and Jan the extra reduction in EB3 was 100. So either EB2 approvals have fallen to their average number after the bump in oct and nov or it is cause of quarterly exhaustion(the former seems more possible). So going forward if we see 100 per month isint there a chance that dates for EB2 will move 3rd quarter? Can you take a guess at this moment as to when the dates will move and where they will land?

[Spectator]

Spec,

On Oct 9th the DD that was published had EB3 demand before 2005 as 25650. The DD published on november 10th had EB3 demand before 2005 at 25000. doesnt that mean that leaving aside the qouta of 250 the rest were EB2 approvals that were taken out of the EB 3 Q. so then the EB2 approvals between oct and nov DDs is atleast 400. The same goes for between nov and dec and dec and jan. Now EB3 being static with no new cases added should'nt the net difference between Oct and Jan - the EB3 Quota = EB2 I approvals ? Agreed some may be just applciations that are withdrawn but their number is less. Another thing to note is between Dec and Jan the extra reduction in EB3 was 100. So either EB2 approvals have fallen to their average number after the bump in oct and nov or it is cause of quarterly exhaustion(the former seems more possible). So going forward if we see 100 per month isint there a chance that dates for EB2 will move 3rd quarter? Can you take a guess at this moment as to when the dates will move and where they will land?

It may or may not be so.

Firstly, the figure was 25,075 not 25,000 in the December Demand Data.

Secondly, you make a quite dangerous assumption that EB3-I numbers are static. The evidence is that is not the case, although I think it should be "reasonably" static.

In FY2011, the Demand Data for the period that was Current for EB3-I only dropped by less than 90% of the number of cases actually approved. It looks to be the same for FY2012 if EB3-I received the maximum approvals possible. Clearly, about 10% of approvals were not reflected in the net reduction of the Demand Data. For EB3-ROW, the gap has been as big as 30%. The Demand Data includes a warning that "Therefore, the above totals should not be interpreted to reflect the total universe of applicant demand."

The actual drop in numbers in the Demand Data for 2003-2004 were 325, 425 and 50 for Oct, Nov and Dec respectively.

The drop may give some idea of the numbers involved, but that is as far as it goes in my opinion. I wouldn't be over reliant on it.

[bvsamrat]

My 2 cents - We should see overall picture of demand and also inventory. The dates may move sometime in April/June to build good inventory and then retrogress for last 2-3 months. This way all demand numbers will be streamlined in coming years. But it takes time(frankly quite long but will ease as we go along) as there are many potential porting cases that might come up, which will only clear up(interfiling confusion) till 2007 Eb3 PD quota is also filled up

Spec,

On Oct 9th the DD that was published had EB3 demand before 2005 as 25650. The DD published on november 10th had EB3 demand before 2005 at 25000. doesnt that mean that leaving aside the qouta of 250 the rest were EB2 approvals that were taken out of the EB 3 Q. so then the EB2 approvals between oct and nov DDs is atleast 400. The same goes for between nov and dec and dec and jan. Now EB3 being static with no new cases added should'nt the net difference between Oct and Jan - the EB3 Quota = EB2 I approvals ? Agreed some may be just applciations that are withdrawn but their number is less. Another thing to note is between Dec and Jan the extra reduction in EB3 was 100. So either EB2 approvals have fallen to their average number after the bump in oct and nov or it is cause of quarterly exhaustion(the former seems more possible). So going forward if we see 100 per month isint there a chance that dates for EB2 will move 3rd quarter? Can you take a guess at this moment as to when the dates will move and where they will land?

[sbhagwat2000]

agreed. But it being fairly static gives us a ball park of the numbers we are looking at. The silver lining and tell me if this is incorrect is that I think the number of EB 2 I approvals before sept 2004 are returning to whatever the montly figure was before retrogression. The bump cause by retrogression seems to be over.

[Spectator]

sbhagwat2000,

Yes, I agree that USCIS should have worked through any (or at least the vast majority of) accumulated backlog in the 3.5 months since the FY started.

[Spectator]

I noticed that there is now a link to the FY2012 DOS Visa Statistics.

Some of the tables have been populated, but not the ones we would be interested in yet.

Hopefully, it does mean the figures will eventually be available much earlier than last year (August). Tables V and VI were among the last to be updated.

Table III does show the total number of Visas issued at Consulates to EB.

A fairly noticeable rise in the EB numbers for Philippines from 1,856 in FY2011 to 3,393 in FY2012 is evident. I think that reflects a large rise in EB3 Schedule A approvals for RN and PT, since they often don't qualify for H1B and must Consular Process.

[qesehmk]

LoL!! We have been waiting for this forever! Lets keep checking.... Curious how much SOFAD EB2IC really received last year.

I noticed that there is now a link to the FY2012 DOS Visa Statistics.

Some of the tables have been populated, but not the ones we would be interested in yet.

Hopefully, it does mean the figures will eventually be available much earlier than last year (August). Tables V and VI were among the last to be updated.

Table III does show the total number of Visas issued at Consulates to EB.

[Spectator]

LoL!! We have been waiting for this forever! Lets keep checking.... Curious how much SOFAD EB2IC really received last year.

Q,

Me too!!!!!!!

I am very surprised how little has been leaked about the FY2012 figures.

[qesehmk]

Spec - check this out http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY12...t-TableIII.pdf

Looks like the data only shows counselor processing at least from EB perspective.

[Spectator]

Spec - check this out http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY12...t-TableIII.pdf

Looks like the data only shows counselor processing at least from EB perspective.

Q,

I think that is what I said, unless I misunderstand your comment.

Table III does show the total number of Visas issued at Consulates to EB.

----------------
You are being polite Spec I didn't read your post quite well the first time!
Q

[triplet]

Is it realistic to expect green card in hand by June 2014 for a priority date of Oct 2008? Between Q's optimism and Spec's check on reality I assume that would be a good date to plan things around. October's on that cutting edge of being dependent on the next year's refill of SOFAD so I guess June or July of 2014 seems plausible. Arrrrgh... C'mon Obama, do something about that CIR!

[Spectator]

Is it realistic to expect green card in hand by June 2014 for a priority date of Oct 2008? Between Q's optimism and Spec's check on reality I assume that would be a good date to plan things around. October's on that cutting edge of being dependent on the next year's refill of SOFAD so I guess June or July of 2014 seems plausible. Arrrrgh... C'mon Obama, do something about that CIR!

triplet,

Personally, I think CIR is the best bet. If something can be passed, it will have many good things for EB, having looked at the last Bill proposed.

To get through October 2008 from the beginning of FY2013 requires about 20k (excluding porting) based on DOS Demand Data.

Progress through July 2007 should be relatively quick. Then the period through March 2008 is also relatively "light" due to previous approvals last year. The monthly numbers after March 2008 ramp up, since it appears only 10-15% of those were approved previously.

Assuming this year is going to be a low SOFAD year (not everybody will agree with that), SOFAD would probably have to return to somewhere in the 20-25k range in FY2014 for October 2008 to be covered within the FY (judging by the current Demand Data).

It depends on whether you believe FY2013 is only likely to be a a SOFAD blip, or whether you believe we are entering a period of lower SOFAD for a few years. I don't think anyone can tell what the correct answer is. I certainly can't.

[triplet]

Thank you Spec! Hard to predict, I don't feel too good about it either. Wow, the probability/thought of having to wait until 2015 is just scary, oh man. You're right CIR would be the best bet, let us hope they can work it out for all our sakes!

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

I'm a keen follower of this thread though lot of times its hard to keep onself abreast of the discussion 'coz of the terms & data involved.

My pd is towards the end of july '08 and I missed last yr's boat in trying to advance/keep a stable job. I'm now considering buyin a house as putting everything on hold forever - on account of GC - makes one feel 'stuck'. Still, one does have to account for when GC would come through. What would be a 'realistic' estimate of when I can expect gc?

Thank you for your time.

[triplet]

I just asked a very similar question a day or two ago and Spec was kind to shed some light on the issue. Just hand tight, you should expect the 'thing' that is definitely worth the trouble maybe before July next year at the latest. Hopefully you will get it even sooner if there are some haphazard movements later this year.